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Gergar12

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OK but you didn't answer my question.
They don't have enough troops for a successful counter-offensive. Russia still has Crimea and the most valuable parts of Ukraine with most valuable farmland and mining under their control, so it's a tactical, and strategic loss. They will likely have to sue for peace and have lost more than they have gained in this war. That's why they lost.
 

Satinavian

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They don't have enough troops for a successful counter-offensive. Russia still has Crimea and the most valuable parts of Ukraine with most valuable farmland and mining under their control, so it's a tactical, and strategic loss. They will likely have to sue for peace and have lost more than they have gained in this war. That's why they lost.
And they still have far more than they would have had if they gave in to Russias demands in exchange for peace in the first months or, really, anytime later as well.


But more importantly, if the US abandons Eastern European countries when invaded by Russia, it might be the end of NATO. Because the vast majority of its members are only in NATO to get US protection from Russia.
 
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Gergar12

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And they still have far more than they would have had if they gave in to Russias demands in exchange for peace in the first months or, really, anytime later as well.


But more importantly, if the US abandons Eastern European countries when invaded by Russia, it might be the end of NATO. Because the vast majority of its members are only in NATO to get US protection from Russia.
Okay my bad they also want Donbas and Lunhask.

I think they just want Crimea and Ukraine to not join NATO. The fault lies with the congress and the president for slow walking the fighter jets.
 

Silvanus

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They don't have enough troops for a successful counter-offensive. Russia still has Crimea and the most valuable parts of Ukraine with most valuable farmland and mining under their control, so it's a tactical, and strategic loss. They will likely have to sue for peace and have lost more than they have gained in this war. That's why they lost.
OK, so you mean they 'lost' in that you don't believe they can reclaim lost territory, but not that they'll lose the territory claimed by Russia.
 

Thaluikhain

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Well...if you are resisting an invasion you are generally good to end off worse than before the invasion, you don't have anything to gain, you just want to preserve the status quo of not being conquered. In that sense, Ukraine was always going to "lose", by some amount.
 

Silvanus

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But more importantly, if the US abandons Eastern European countries when invaded by Russia, it might be the end of NATO. Because the vast majority of its members are only in NATO to get US protection from Russia.
But NATO membership still conveys that protection. Russia has only invaded/annexed/attacked non-NATO members in Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova).

Russia's actions have enormously strengthened NATO, by convincing any non-member countries near to it (Sweden, Finland etc) that membership is the only guarantee of safety against Russian invasion, and that being a non-member put you at risk. Hence the flurry of efforts to join, and the increase in defence funding in member states that had previously been allowing defence funding to lower.

I suspect Putin knew this, and he's happy to empower NATO if it serves as a domestic boogeyman in the short term.
 
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Gergar12

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I just feel bad for Ukraine. They have lost an entire generation over this war. Is it great that Finland and Sweden are in NATO, yes, but I wish Ukraine could have at least gotten back either the Donbas or Crimea.
 

bluegate

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I just feel bad for Ukraine. They have lost an entire generation over this war. Is it great that Finland and Sweden are in NATO, yes, but I wish Ukraine could have at least gotten back either the Donbas or Crimea.
This isn't over yet.
 

Ag3ma

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This isn't over yet.
Maybe not, but it does not look good for Ukraine to recover its lost territories. Putin cannot give up what he's already taken - that just means Russia will have experienced a ton of misery for nothing, and is impossible for Putin to accept. Thus the only way Ukraine gets its territory back is by force, or a new Russian leader replacing who is prepared to negotiate.

Militarily, Russia's offensive capabilities are poor, but so are Ukraine's. Ukraine made rapid advances towards the end of the initial Russian assault because Russia did not have prepared defences and its forces were shattered by their losses during the invasion. Russia spent last Winter fortifying mightily and will have substantially rebuilt its frontline forces, so it's questionable whether Ukraine has the wherewithal to decisively break those defences.
 

Hades

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that just means Russia will have experienced a ton of misery for nothing, and is impossible for Putin to accept.
Isn't that just your average Tuesday for Russia though? Whether its the Tsars, Soviets or Putin the misery they inflicted tended to all be for nothing.
 

Thaluikhain

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Isn't that just your average Tuesday for Russia though? Whether its the Tsars, Soviets or Putin the misery they inflicted tended to all be for nothing.
While, ok, there's truth that that, unless Putin can claim some kind of success, he'll be shown a failure. Which has always been a big problem throughout history, and has led to some quite creative interpretations of success in the past. I'm sorta surprised he hasn't invented one yet.
 

Gergar12

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Hades

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Okay, arresting an American citizen is pretty bad.


The guy who doxes journalists' hotel locations(When Russia has missiles that can hit those journalists) faces the consequences. Shocker.
Its funny that Tucker thinks the Biden administration is out to terrorize the far right when those involved in January 6 aren't even rotting in jail for treason yet. Not Trump who's behind it nor the idiots who followed him. If Biden was as trigger happy as Tucker feared perhaps some justice would actually have been done.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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Its funny that Tucker thinks the Biden administration is out to terrorize the far right when those involved in January 6 aren't even rotting in jail for treason yet. Not Trump who's behind it nor the idiots who followed him. If Biden was as trigger happy as Tucker feared perhaps some justice would actually have been done.
People like Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones consider it "oppression" when they're not allowed to call for the deaths of their political enemies.
 

Silvanus

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Alexei Navalny, the most prominent opposition figure in Russia, has been imprisoned in a forced-labour camp in Russia since 2021 (after a failed assassination attempt by the FSB in 2020).

Now, he has gone missing during transfer to another forced-labour camp, and authorities refuse to identify his location. His lawyers have been refused access to him since 6th December.

This is the atmosphere in which elections are shortly to be run, and expected to be taken seriously. Are we likely to ever hear of him again?
 

Silvanus

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You forgot to put the word "election" in massive sarcasm quotes.
Well indeed.

And the "referenda" carried out in the annexed areas need to be seen in this context. Russia is not offering locals a chance to have their voice heard. It is denying them access to the elections in their own country, and then replacing them with brutal farces where voting against the occupying military force gets you gunned down, tortured or disappeared.