So wait, now he’s not going to jail? Because that seems to be all I’ve heard online lately is the inevitability of it. And we’re in the 11th hour now. Funny though, even if he didn’t, at this point I think even most repubs could acknowledge he’d poison the well. He’s like the kid from Peanuts with the dirt cloud around him.
There's a pretty good chance he won't go to jail, no. Not by the election, anyway.
He has three major ongoing criminal cases - a federal one (Jack Smith prosecuting, electoral interference), one in Georgia (Fani Willis, racketeering) and a significantly less important one in Florida (possession of confidential documents). I say significantly less important, because although awful, it has far less risk of damage to his electoral prospects.
The Jack Smith trial is scheduled for 4th March, but is currently paused and seriously likely to be delayed by Trump claiming immunity, which needs to wind its way through appeals. Fair chance with the vast amount of chaff Trump's lawyers will throw at delaying it, and the trial itself (which also the Trump team will also try to slow as much as possible) it will not conclude before the election.
The Fani Willis-led case was hoped for August by the prosecution, but already thought likely to slip to 2025. Plus (and omg seriously???)
Willis has had an affair with a lawyer on her team. What the fuck is it with high profile prosecutors in the USA, can't they be more... 'boring'? From what I've read, it's unlikely that there's been significant wrongdoing. But it's created an angle for Trump supporters to discredit Willis, create delays and distractions, and puts her and the prosecution in a bad light.
The confidential documents case is being handled by a judge who is a Trump appointee, Aileen Cannon, who already attempted to hand him an outrageous and it turns out very poorly reasoned favourable judgement for him in the lead-up. Does not bode well. Trial date not arranged, but Cannon has already announced it may be set back.
* * *
I think a lot of anti-Trumpers are just hoping that Trump is going to fall foul of one of these and it will magically save the USA from a shitshow. I think there's just a huge problem getting a conviction due to the psychological pressure on jurors of having to convict an ex-president (never mind if he's also a presidental candidate, president-elect or even as may be the current president). The magnitude of accepting that their nation's president was a crook. To be someone who sent down a president. To potentially derail an election. The threats they might receive. I think it is a lot easier for them to just say to themselves no harm done really and shy away from such a horrendously difficult option.