Ukraine

Agema

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Putin wanted to avoid NATO having more of a border with Russia. And now they get more than 1000 km of it.
You love to see it.
Yes. Who'd have thought that an extremely visible, aggressive threat might induce smaller countries to pull together against it?

Either Putin didn't, or he thought Ukraine was worth the cost. As it appears, it looks like he can't even get Ukraine - or at least, not most of it.
 
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Agema

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Russia is reporting about 1000 Ukrainian troops have surrendered in Mariupol.

This is credible: the main Ukrainian unit defending the city had been cut off for some time and already warned that it was almost out of ammo.
 

CM156

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Since the war has started, Putin has managed to:
Cause massive amounts of European cooperation and integration
Get two formerly neutral nations to consider a NATO bid
Get Russia sanctioned by almost everyone in the western world
Fail to take the capital city of the enemy nation
Galvanize much of the world against Russia
Sow intergenerational hatred for Russians in the Ukrainian public.

This isn't an own goal. This is scoring three shots on yourself and doing a victory lap.
 

Agema

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This isn't an own goal. This is scoring three shots on yourself and doing a victory lap.
I think also (and I've already said) that Putin has this reputation as a political genius because he has, in some very high profile instances, made life very difficult for the USA. In today's short attention span, Twitter-dominated and superficial world, it looks brilliant.

But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
 

Hades

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I think also (and I've already said) that Putin has this reputation as a political genius because he has, in some very high profile instances, made life very difficult for the USA. In today's short attention span, Twitter-dominated and superficial world, it looks brilliant.

But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
Under Putin's watch Russia and the rest of the world were presented with the illusion of Russia as a world power that could expand its influence across the rest of the world, rather than the ''mere regional power'' Obama famously described it as. I think the thought of Putin having ''restored'' Russian power and prestige added a lot to his hype.

Sadly for Putin it was all illusions meant to mask Russia's decline rather than anything to prevent it and you're on the mark on Russia's poor state.
 
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Thaluikhain

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I think also (and I've already said) that Putin has this reputation as a political genius because he has, in some very high profile instances, made life very difficult for the USA. In today's short attention span, Twitter-dominated and superficial world, it looks brilliant.

But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
Eh, that he has held onto power and siphoned money off for him and his friends could well be argued to be more indicative of a skillful politician that the state of his country.
 

Silvanus

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Eh, that he has held onto power and siphoned money off for him and his friends could well be argued to be more indicative of a skillful politician that the state of his country.
Of course, the state of the country is also dire, with quality of life plummeting, inequality at a grotesque high (catching up on the US), and a vastly repressive state apparatus.

If we understand Putin's motivations and aims purely in terms of self-enrichment and exploitation of his office, then he's successful. He's created a system of networked kleptocracy and nepotism that's the envy of far-right leaders the world over.

If we understand his motivations in terms of Russian global standing, improvements in the average quality of life in Russia, or even countering NATO and the US, then he's been a consummate failure.
 
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tstorm823

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Since the war has started, Putin has managed to:
Cause massive amounts of European cooperation and integration
Get two formerly neutral nations to consider a NATO bid
Get Russia sanctioned by almost everyone in the western world
Fail to take the capital city of the enemy nation
Galvanize much of the world against Russia
Sow intergenerational hatred for Russians in the Ukrainian public.

This isn't an own goal. This is scoring three shots on yourself and doing a victory lap.
I think also (and I've already said) that Putin has this reputation as a political genius because he has, in some very high profile instances, made life very difficult for the USA. In today's short attention span, Twitter-dominated and superficial world, it looks brilliant.

But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
If his goal was to deter nations from joining NATO, it's a comical failure.
If his goal was Russian prosperity, it's a comical failure.
If his goal was conquering all or part of Ukraine, it looks to be largely a failure, but the future could always be different.

If his goal all along was to starve his own people, manipulate them with war propaganda, and make the world think he's evil and unstable, then he might have succeeded. If what he wants is to model Russia after North Korea, he's headed the right direction.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
And now he's faithfully following the autocrat's playbook by distracting his people from his mistakes and crimes with nationalistic fervor, religious revival and war.
 
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Trunkage

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If his goal was to deter nations from joining NATO, it's a comical failure.
If his goal was Russian prosperity, it's a comical failure.
If his goal was conquering all or part of Ukraine, it looks to be largely a failure, but the future could always be different.

If his goal all along was to starve his own people, manipulate them with war propaganda, and make the world think he's evil and unstable, then he might have succeeded. If what he wants is to model Russia after North Korea, he's headed the right direction.
Even if he manages to take Ukraine, holding it is a whole other ball game. Some analysts suggest it might take a million troops to hold the country. Put that with the news this week about 70 soldiers dying in 3ish weeks in the taken city of Melitopl, population (at least was) 150k, I dont know how they are even going to hold the East

Also, I would now count Kim as more competent than Putin
 
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Generals

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Even if he manages to take Ukraine, holding it is a whole other ball game. Some analysts suggest it might take a million troops to hold the country. Put that with the news this week about 70 soldiers dying in 3ish weeks in the taken city of Melitopl, population (at least was) 150k, I dont know how they are even going to hold the East

Also, I would now count Kim as more competent than Putin
Actually I think holding the East is quite possible. The East was generally speaking relatively Russia-Friendly (and still is in separatist held territory, thank you Russian propaganda) but most importantly a lot of Ukrainians have fled the area and there are reports of Russia deporting people as well. If they basically repopulate these Areas with a sufficient amount of Russians it shouldn't be such a big problem. Obviously this would be impossible on a national scale, but for the Donbass region I can see it happen.
 

Generals

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I think also (and I've already said) that Putin has this reputation as a political genius because he has, in some very high profile instances, made life very difficult for the USA. In today's short attention span, Twitter-dominated and superficial world, it looks brilliant.

But really, he's presided over years of Russian economic and human development stagnation, rampant corruption, demographic decline and decreasing global influence just so he can stay in power and a few billionaires buy themselves extra luxury yachts. In the bigger, deeper picture that I'm sure our governments are looking at, Putin's spent a whole decade driving his country into a ditch.
To be fair, up to 2013-2014 the Russian economy was actually doing relatively ok (now whether that benefited everyone is another question). If he had respected Ukrainian independence Putin's presidency wouldn't have been a total disaster. (ok, it still would have been on a lot of socio-ethical aspects, but economically speaking it would have been "ok")
 

Silvanus

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So, yesterday the Ukrainian defence ministry claimed that it had scored 2 missile hits on the Moskva, the flagship of Russia's fleet in the Black Sea. It was unconfirmed by independent sources. Would be massive if true: the Moskva carries huge amounts of artillery and ~500 personnel.

Today, Russia is claiming that Moskva has suffered an explosion as a result of a "fire", and has had to be evacuated.


🤔
 
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Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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Today, Russia is claiming that Moskva has suffered an explosion as a result of a "fire", and has had to be evacuated.

🤔
Yes, a fire probably caused by a Ukrainian missile. Apparently, it set off a magazine explosion - ouch: they could consider themselves lucky the ship didn't catastrophically detonate.

Losing a ship to a "fire" (implicitly accidental) is potentially more humiliating than losing it to enemy action. Of course, the Russian/Soviets have plenty of form in losing their naval vessels to accidents, but normally it's the submarines.
 

Silvanus

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Losing a ship to a "fire" (implicitly accidental) is potentially more humiliating than losing it to enemy action.
Good thing to consider, actually: what's more embarrassing for a military, weakness or incompetence? Maybe weakness is a more sore spot currently, given how terribly the operation has gone from the start.

Or maybe they're trying to make the point that the only force mighty enough to defeat Russia is Russia itself!
 

Thaluikhain

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Of course, the Russian/Soviets have plenty of form in losing their naval vessels to accidents, but normally it's the submarines.
Eh, to be fair, submarines are notorious for that, no matter who is operating them. Though, yeah, not want to rely on the Russian military to ensure my sub would come back up.
 

Generals

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Good thing to consider, actually: what's more embarrassing for a military, weakness or incompetence? Maybe weakness is a more sore spot currently, given how terribly the operation has gone from the start.

Or maybe they're trying to make the point that the only force mighty enough to defeat Russia is Russia itself!
We shouldn't also forget that admitting the ship caught fire because it was hit by Ukrainian forces also implies Ukrainian forces are still capable of causing severe harm to Russian troops. And this can further demoralize Russian soldiers.
 

Agema

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Eh, to be fair, submarines are notorious for that, no matter who is operating them. Though, yeah, not want to rely on the Russian military to ensure my sub would come back up.
For nuclear submarines, in recent years critical failures - to the point the whole vessel is lost or close to it - are very rare... except USSR/Russia. The USA lost a couple in the early Cold War. The USSR/Russia has lost over half a dozen, nearly all after 1980, plus a substantial number of major accidents in repairs or decommissioning.

Not sure about other classes of sub.