Xcom Classic Difficulty Smells a Bit Like Bullshit. (Kinda Ranty)

[Kerith]

Its called confirmation bias. Observers are more likely to remember events that have an emotional response. Generally, events that are personal to the observer and negative are the most likely to be recalled. Events to others with good outcomes get forgotten.

I felt a bit like it was bullshit as well, but googling has revealed two links using statistical analysis to figure it out.

1) http://www.schwanenlied.me/yawning/XCOM/XCOMPRNG.html
2) http://sinepost.wordpress.com/2012/11/11/is-xcom-truly-random/

Both authors have the same conclusion: The game is not cheating. The psuedo-random number generator produces an even distribution of numbers and thus not loaded.

The first author also indicates that the perception of streaking is likely bias and that while the generator could have done bettering with streaking, it is only apparent with a enormous sample of rolls (thousands). Thus, I have conceded that the pRNG is not working against me and that I am not good at risk management.

Thought it was interesting to post. Remember 75% to hit means you expect to miss 1 every four. Have 2 or 3 backup shooters (or an explosive backup).

1 of 2 shots from an alien into heavy cover is also expected to hit with potential for a crit. Hunker to remove the instant death.

edit: spelling

 

[LAGG]

Oh, man I just raged hard on the game now. I was making a perfect classic run with all mods except damage roulette (perfect missions, not perfect council reports), no losses, most of the time no damages taken, always taking a recruit to promote, and then suddenly in two missions I lose 5 guys and lose the mission:

1) my heavy's rocket, that was meant to kill 3 floaters, takes a turn mid-air and kills one of my assaults... never saw this crap happening ever in the game.
2) heavy behind a full cover ramp (jungle), five aliens hit him in a row in the same turn, dead (did the game show it as cover but it wasn't?)
3) heavy flanking on the other side of the map, not a single enemy in sight, no way the aliens could know where he was, floater teleports from the middle of the fight straight behind him, I killed him but then got sniped behind from across the level.
4) move behind a tree to flank a thin man: WTF I can't see him while having totally clear LOS to him, so I can't shoot him (nor move and shoot again)... take damage from floter that taleports behind him. move behind tree to flank the floter, can't see him LOL, dead on next turn.
5) sniper is the last-man standing, falls back, oops, skyranger is not there (did them parachute onto the aliens landing or what?) so I can't escape alive from the mission... goes behind 3-full covers to break all LOS to reload, gets shot through the hill.

It's not the same time I notice perfect games suddenly having a lot of BS happening to break my streak. When I'm strugling and losing 1-2 guys every mission this never happens, ever, but when it's all perfect, the game finds cheaty a way to stop me. It's like you're not supposed to do too well in classic because "sewious dwama" or something.

Next playthrough I'll sacrifice a recruit every now and then to keep the game happy.

On a technical note, I HATE how everytime you tab through soldiers or prapare an action the stupid camera changes it's zoom back to the default one, and HATE even more the explosive aiming one that doesn't let you turn the vision around of change the zoom and it keeps moving the screen around, and HATE that you can't at least turn the camera around during the aliens turn to see what's going on.

 

[IBlackKiteI]

I can appreciate the whole random chance thing to some degree but so much of it is just totally screwed up. Like when that same Muton one shots another one of your guys head on with them in heavy cover you know somethings up.

Meh, I just have the Rookies 'splosive spam their way to victory and only expect the veterans to actually shoot stuff and survive more than a single hit.
...ok I still expect them to get one shotted by everything no matter what, but I still expect them to freakin hit stuff.

 

[TreuloseTomate]

Minimize risk.
Play it safe.
Deal with inevitable losses.
Watch this series:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9zJE9GodMQ&list=PLXctaw5JGF4LcidFVdkQMV1tc2DfC8x3D