Ukraine

Silvanus

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Ukraine has realised that no one is coming to help them, so they have promised to Russia that they won't apply to Nato. Only smart thing they could do.
Ukraine hasn't promised any such thing. Zelensky has been explicit that he won't base Ukrainian foreign policy on what Russia wants.
 

meiam

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Annnnnnd Putin backed down, he called it a win but he really didn't achieve anything (except make a lot of country seriously consider joining NATO). Unless this is some some fake out and he's hoping everyone relax so he can come back, it does appear that the event is over.
 

Silvanus

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Annnnnnd Putin backed down, he called it a win but he really didn't achieve anything (except make a lot of country seriously consider joining NATO). Unless this is some some fake out and he's hoping everyone relax so he can come back, it does appear that the event is over.
That depends. Perhaps the (sealed) letter Blinken delivered in January contained concessions that Putin considered sufficient. Or perhaps it was flexing for a domestic audience obsessed with projecting strength.

One question I've considered, though: the Russian government line in this has been that these troop movements have all been entirely routine exercises, nothing out of the ordinary, part of training.

...surely that contradicts the use of them as leverage to demand commitments from NATO and Ukraine? It looks as if Putin/Lavrov knew from the start that nobody with a brain cell believed the movements were routine.
 

tstorm823

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...surely that contradicts the use of them as leverage to demand commitments from NATO and Ukraine? It looks as if Putin/Lavrov knew from the start that nobody with a brain cell believed the movements were routine.
I mean, if the whole thing is theatrics, it's like a dance routine.
 

Generals

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Annnnnnd Putin backed down, he called it a win but he really didn't achieve anything (except make a lot of country seriously consider joining NATO). Unless this is some some fake out and he's hoping everyone relax so he can come back, it does appear that the event is over.
I think Putin pretty much won. He gave up nothing and got NATO, the US and European countries on the negotiation table to make some concessions. Did/will he get everything he demanded? probably not. But whatever concessions he gets are net gains.

I just hope some serious and constructive discussions can happen and EU-Russia relations can start normalizing again.
 

Seanchaidh

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The arms industry might make a buck or two by selling some weapons to Ukraine and some baltic states but in the grand scheme of things that wouldn't change a lot to their bottom line. Unless Russia actually decides to invade which may cause an even higher demand in weaponry across some eastern European nations. But that would be entirely up to Russia.
And "gotta do something" usually means economic sanctions. These would probably benefit some and cost some. Heck the tensions in Ukraine are already harming the stock market.
Yeah, sure.


Annnnnnd Putin backed down, he called it a win but he really didn't achieve anything (except make a lot of country seriously consider joining NATO). Unless this is some some fake out and he's hoping everyone relax so he can come back, it does appear that the event is over.
What was there to back down from? The only people-- literally the only people-- who said he was going to invade are the United States and their media handmaidens. Oh, and the Azov Battalion. I guess we're very studiously listening to Nazis nowadays. Can we be really sure that Putin has "backed down" if it is not confirmed by the swastika-sporting genocide advocates? :rolleyes:
 
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Silvanus

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What was there to back down from? The only people-- literally the only people-- who said he was going to invade are the United States and their media handmaidens. Oh, and the Azov Battalion. I guess we're very studiously listening to Nazis nowadays. Can we be really sure that Putin has "backed down" if it is not confirmed by the swastika-sporting genocide advocates? :rolleyes:
I very much doubt he actually intended/intends to invade again (at least, at the present time). And it bears reiterating that Zelensky himself said that wasn't going to happen, and that the West was causing panic.

But equally, it's blatant that the troop mobilisation wasn't "routine". Why do you believe 90,000 - 150,000 troops, with armour, aircraft and ships, were surrounding the Ukrainian border?
 

Seanchaidh

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I very much doubt he actually intended/intends to invade again (at least, at the present time). And it bears reiterating that Zelensky himself said that wasn't going to happen, and that the West was causing panic.

But equally, it's blatant that the troop mobilisation wasn't "routine". Why do you believe 90,000 - 150,000 troops, with armour, aircraft and ships, were surrounding the Ukrainian border?
Why doesn't the US military's disposition of forces get this sort of scrutiny? Where else in Russia should those forces be? Do they need to guard Siberia from Aurora Borealis?
 

Generals

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Why doesn't the US military's disposition of forces get this sort of scrutiny? Where else in Russia should those forces be? Do they need to guard Siberia from Aurora Borealis?
Well I guess by that logic I suppose Putin wouldn't mind Nato sends all its troops at the Russian Border. After all, why are some still stationed in Germany? I am sure Putin would love it if more than 100 000 western troops were mobilizing at his border.
You should apply as a spokesperson of Russia's foreign ministry, really.
 

Seanchaidh

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Well I guess by that logic I suppose Putin wouldn't mind Nato sends all its troops at the Russian Border. After all, why are some still stationed in Germany? I am sure Putin would love it if more than 100 000 western troops were mobilizing at his border.
You're comparing all of NATO massing next to Russia in Ukraine to Russia having troops within its own borders near its major population centers. It's parody. You're doing parody.
 
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Generals

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You're comparing all of NATO massing next to Russia in Ukraine to Russia having troops within its own borders near its major population centers. It's parody. You're doing parody.
Nono, the well established parody artist is you.
And who said in Ukraine? I said near Russia's border. Estonia and Latvia share a border with Russia as well.
Additionally while I questioned the likelihood of an invasion an annexation of Eastern Ukraine was quite a possibility based on Russia's past actions and present mobilization. Add to that their own EU ambassador said they would invade "if attacked" with "attacked" also meaning Ukraine misbehaving in Eastern Ukraine (yes he mentioned Donbas) it was quite clear Russia could have pulled a Hitler (Sudetenland anyone?). I mean it's not like Russian disinformation campaigns have not been working overtime to convince Russians Ukraine = Evil Nazis. At that point all they need is some fake news to justify an invasion. Like the fake WMD's in Iraq.

And this is what makes the propaganda you parrot so funny, you claim people believed Russia could invade Ukraine because their neo-nazi unit said so. No, people believed it to be possible because Russia has already invaded Ukraine once, they were massing troops at the border and they made demands! What was the leverage for their demand if it wasn't a possible invasion? "Please give us what we want and we will stop the harmless drills" .... I totally see the EU, US and NATO give in to that... Stop being ridiculous.
 

meiam

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I think Putin pretty much won. He gave up nothing and got NATO, the US and European countries on the negotiation table to make some concessions. Did/will he get everything he demanded? probably not. But whatever concessions he gets are net gains.

I just hope some serious and constructive discussions can happen and EU-Russia relations can start normalizing again.
Moving troop around like this is really not cheap and as much as he try to put a positive spin on it I don't think anybody is going to miss that he had to back down, even domestic audience. I can't think of any significant concession anyone did so I don't even know if he even got something in the end.

Will be interesting to see if nordstream 2 is given the okay after this, I know if I was a European energy minister I'd be doing everything possible to make sure my energy supply can be completely decoupled from Russian source at a moment notice.

In a way, it's possible that Ukraine is the biggest winner in all this (again, assuming Putin is really backing down), they got a bunch of stuff and know a lot more what kind of support they'd get from the international community. I also imagine that turned the population even more sour on Russia.
 

Trunkage

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There was a time when Russia invading Ukraine was a strategic economic move, but that doesn't really make sense to me at a time when the world was focused on China and the EU was ready to buy Russian oil in large quantities. On the surface level, the timing of this feels really backwards. Many conservative talking heads speak of this as though Putin is trying to take advantage of a weak moment for the US, but even setting aside the bias on the US part of that analysis, Russia just doesn't have the capability to actually occupy Ukraine, even if the won the war.

Putin says it's about Ukraine joining NATO, and I think that might really be the issue. I'm beginning to think Putin isn't trying to recreate the USSR, but rather is trying to create his own North Korea, where he can isolate his people through saber rattling, negotiate a demilitarized zone in the west, and then lean on China to bankroll his dictatorship. The ties between Russia and Ukraine threaten that, especially if Ukraine joins NATO, so he needs to forge a geographic barrier on that border.
Id agree with most of this. The US just got put of a costly war. This is not their weakest moment.

Putin is a 'clever' manipulator. So is China. They know how to push buttons so the West reacts in a way to get what they want
 

Silvanus

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Why doesn't the US military's disposition of forces get this sort of scrutiny? Where else in Russia should those forces be? Do they need to guard Siberia from Aurora Borealis?
US forces do receive this scrutiny, from me at least, in the relevant threads.

As for where those forces "should" be: in barracks. Or if they're actually doing "exercises", then basically anywhere that isn't pointing millions of guns at a sovereign foreign country.

That's just pathetic from AFP. The West have managed to do fuck all except push things further to the brink, by Zelensky's own reckoning.
 
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meiam

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That's just pathetic from AFP. The West have managed to do fuck all except push things further to the brink, by Zelensky's own reckoning.
Zelnensky is in a different position, having the general population panic isn't going to help the situation so he'd rather the west ton down the warning, but doesn't mean he think they're not doing anything. If you read the rest of the tweet thread you'll see Ukraine foreign minister is crediting the west for helping prevent the situation from escalating.

I have a hard time believing that if the west just said "Putin can do w/e he want, we won't do anything at all and were not sending any equipment to ukraine nor helping train their troop" Putin would not have invaded in the last few weeks. The troop build up is undeniable, I don't think Putin just though his troop could use a vacation at the border.
 

Avnger

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Does Russia not have barracks near Ukraine?
That and 'hysteria' are old talking points, comrade. The new justification is 'genocide;' you should check your email for the latest script.

 

Seanchaidh

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That and 'hysteria' are old talking points, comrade. The new justification is 'genocide;' you should check your email for the latest script.

What a fascinating example of how US media treats issues like this in countries deemed allies versus ones deemed rivals.

Because it's not as if Russians have no legitimate grievances with the way the Ukrainian government treats them. But your article doesn't go into any detail whatsoever about what Putin could possibly be referring to that he calls genocidal. It simply calls the claim 'baseless' without any discussion of how the Russian minority is treated by Ukraine at all.