Ukraine

[Seanchaidh]

A power vacuum in Russia would not be worse than Putin.

A mad scramble for nukes, sounds great

 

[Satinavian]

If Putin were to die, no one would scramble for nukes as nukes are not helpful for getting power in Russia and replacing Putin. And it is hard to imagine a replcaement worse.

The only reason why i don't support us trying to assassinate Putin is that it would be stupid to forgoe a no-flight-zone because of possible escalations and then go for assassination.
However if some Russian or Ukrainian murdered Putin now, i certainly would applaud a new hero.

 

[Seanchaidh]

If Putin were to die, no one would scramble for nukes as nukes are not helpful for getting power in Russia and replacing Putin. And it is hard to imagine a replcaement worse.

wrong and dangerous

 

[Casual Shinji]

This isn't Satire

It looks like satire. It is written like satire. But it isn't satire.

View attachment 5670

Source: BBC

I've seen An American Tail, I know what those Russian cats are up to.

 

[Silvanus]

If Putin were to die, no one would scramble for nukes as nukes are not helpful for getting power in Russia and replacing Putin. And it is hard to imagine a replcaement worse.

The only reason why i don't support us trying to assassinate Putin is that it would be stupid to forgoe a no-flight-zone because of possible escalations and then go for assassination.
However if some Russian or Ukrainian murdered Putin now, i certainly would applaud a new hero.

It's quite easy to imagine a replacement worse. Its quite easy to imagine a replacement willing to use nuclear weapons in a first-strike capacity, and in Russia, there are no other branches of government that can hold the executive to account in any way.

A no-fly zone instituted by NATO would also represent a major escalation. It would put NATO and Russian forces in direct combat, in a way that very rarely happened even during the height of the Cold War.

The best approach would be for regional, non-nuclear states to provide air support. Not a NATO initiative, as NATO concerns drove Russia in the first place. But other regional powers clearly have an interest in defending Ukraine, because Russia may well come for them next with an eye to annexation. It has already threatened Sweden, Finland and Moldova.

 

[Satinavian]

It's quite easy to imagine a replacement worse. Its quite easy to imagine a replacement willing to use nuclear weapons in a first-strike capacity, and in Russia, there are no other branches of government that can hold the executive to account in any way.

Do you really trust Putin to never do that ?

He is openly threateneing with them. He feels personally attacked by things not oing his way. He seems incredibly delusional about a lot of things and has thoroughly surrounded himself with yes-men. And he is also utterly untrustworthy.


Now starting a nuclear war is such an incredibly stupid thing that i don't think it very likely. But then again, i have a hard time imagining a potential Putin-replacement (who will also be far less entrenched internally) more instead of less likely to do it.


As for the rest : If NATO stays out, local regional powers won't do a thing. First, even if Finland, Sweden and Moldavia joined together they would have a hard time enforcing a no-flight zone, second they would open themself to the same responses as NATO would, only being much weaker themself.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Once again I bow to your superior understanding. I had never considered that the west, in an attempt to destroy a single regiment and turn public opinion against a country already widely distrusted, would choose to bait an unstable nuclear power into a full on invasion. Surely the loss of a government that supports western ideals and favors a neutral position is a perfect sacrifice in exchange for this.

The United States has a (multinational, actually) military industrial complex. It wants more money. And that is why it wants more conflict, hatred, and fear. It would not mind whatsoever a return of the Warsaw Pact, the more conscience-shockingly achieved the better. And the new one not being communist means they can even make money arming it too. The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous.

Obviously it's all connected to the wider discussion.

But I asked you a simple question, to which all that guff does not provide an answer.

You've advocated that Ukraine pursue a diplomatic approach, in order to gain peace with Russia directly, without NATO. By taking steps to fulfil Russian demands. The question is why they should do that, when Russia will not actually abide by any promise of peace it makes. Agreeing to Russian demands does not provide any security or peace.

I have advocated that the Ukraine and NATO pursue a diplomatic approach. Not sure where you're getting this "without NATO" specification. They should do it with NATO. They should do it without NATO. And NATO should do it with or without Ukraine.

The question is why they should do that, when Russia will not actually abide by any promise of peace it makes.

You don't know what they will or won't do. Stop pretending that a breach of a somewhat old agreement that seemed to affirm popular will in Crimea and was also a reaction to a US-backed overthrow of the Ukrainian government is evidence of abnormal perfidy, or that an agreement about the civil war in the Donbass which the Ukrainians also didn't respect at all also constitutes such evidence. Especially when you argued in close proximity that US sanctions against Belarus obviously aren't economic pressure (and a violation of the Budapest Memorandum) because they were a response to something the United States (and you) didn't like. Shocking that you would think a situation changing might justify ignoring a previous agreement... or not so shocking, so long as it's the United States doing the ignoring.

The best approach would be for regional, non-nuclear states to provide air support.

The best approach would be to agree to a peace treaty now, however irksome its terms, and stop the pointless drawing out of the conflict.

 

[gorfias]

Ever seen the show, "Chernobyl"?

I've been very much against US continued involvement in Nato and even more hostile to US involvement in this conflict to begin with but this story is, for me, an eye opener.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant: everything you need to know

Russian forces in Ukraine have been shelling the Zaporizhzhia power plant, the largest nuclear plant of its kind in Europe

www.theguardian.com

 

[hanselthecaretaker]

So I just went to a defense forum, and they mentioned something that didn't factor into my analysis, Putin could use a tactical nuclear weapon if NATO airpower strikes that 40 miles convey of Russian military vehicle, so the Ukrainians are in a no-win situation. Endure the airstrikes, fuel-air munitions, and missiles, or get a no-fly zone, and get nuked. And in some ways when you look at it from their side; their military is weaker, has poorer training, and they have fewer allies so no they can't do Iraqi freedom where the US didn't use nukes and did network-centric warfare/modern blitzkrieg.

I am starting to think China will do the same thing intervene in Taiwan, and we do nuclear brinksmanship.

But at what point does this nuclear blackmail end. Does it end with a US-China standoff over the second island chain, the third, the fourth, etc? Does it end with Putin taking Moldova, what about Romania? the Baltic States, Poland?

At this point, the only thing stopping expansionist dictators is conventional military power and spending.

Buckle up, the 21st century is about to get more bloody.

Edit: By their side, I meant the Russians.

It never ends, and disregarding all the nanomachine and other sci-fi bs this is pretty much what the core plot of the MGS series has been.

Better hope Putin doesn’t find a way to disable our missile defense systems. This is the scary thing about moles and especially so in the digital age. The world will go “dark” before the bombs fall. We wouldn’t even get to have an online end-of-the-world party.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Better hope Putin doesn’t find a way to disable our missile defense systems.

Eh, even if he does, there's still submarines with nuclear missiles he won't, which has long been a good argument against a first strike.

In any case, I see no reason to assume that Putin doesn't want the status quo with some changes, rather than a hard reshuffle of the world.

 

[Satinavian]

I am starting to think China will do the same thing intervene in Taiwan, and we do nuclear brinksmanship.

China has a far far better claim to Taiwan than Russia has to the Ukraine. If we stand by now, why should we get involved then ?

 

[Silvanus]

You don't know what they will or won't do. Stop pretending that a breach of a somewhat old agreement that seemed to affirm popular will in Crimea and was also a reaction to a US-backed overthrow of the Ukrainian government is evidence of abnormal perfidy, or that an agreement about the civil war in the Donbass which the Ukrainians also didn't respect at all also constitutes such evidence. Especially when you argued in close proximity that US sanctions against Belarus obviously aren't economic pressure (and a violation of the Budapest Memorandum) because they were a response to something the United States (and you) didn't like. Shocking that you would think a situation changing might justify ignoring a previous agreement... or not so shocking, so long as it's the United States doing the ignoring.

Not just one old agreement. Numerous agreements, some much more recent. They break international law routinely. And regardless of the views you or I have on the Belarussian sanctions, it's indisputable that invasion and 8 years of annexation represents a breach many orders of magnitude larger. I hate to tell you this, but yes, making an explixit legal agreement not to attack someone, and then invading, annexing, and funding an insurgency for 8 years before invading again is abnormal perfidy. It should utterly shatter anyone's willingness to trust legal commitments they make for a generation.

You're right in that I don't know what they'll do. But I know that any correlation their actions may have with promises or legal agreements they make will be coincidental. And that's why extracting diplomatic assurances from Russia does not convey any security for Ukraine.

The best approach would be to agree to a peace treaty now, however irksome its terms, and stop the pointless drawing out of the conflict.

So just not defend ones borders. Allow imperialists to divide up the country, and allow the slaughter of civilians unchecked in the vain hope he'll kill fewer people if he feels like it.

And afterwards? Same for Moldova? Same for Sweden, and all the other countries Putin directly threatened recently on broadcast television?

 

[Seanchaidh]

They break international law routinely.

Putting the particulars aside, so vaguely as you've gestured at them, I wrote abnormal perfidy. This is normal perfidy for a great power.

Allow imperialists to divide up the country, and allow the slaughter of civilians unchecked in the vain hope he'll kill fewer people if he feels like it.

So we'll just see the same thing happen later and, if our strategy works as well as intended, Kiev will look like Grozny or Baghdad or Belgrade after they were destroyed by bombing, and we'll be arming a neo-Nazi insurgency because apparently the Afghan mujahideen weren't odious enough.

 

[Worgen]

Putting the particulars aside, so vaguely as you've gestured at them, I wrote abnormal perfidy. This is normal perfidy for a great power.



So we'll just see the same thing happen later and, if our strategy works as well as intended, Kiev will look like Grozny or Baghdad or Belgrade after they were destroyed by bombing, and we'll be arming a neo-Nazi insurgency because apparently the Afghan mujahideen weren't odious enough.

Yes yes yes, you are a tankie and probably being paid by Russia to defend them online and all their made up shit. We get it.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Yes yes yes, you are a tankie and probably being paid by Russia to defend them online and all their made up shit. We get it.

Mmm, yes, Russia definitely has the resources to piss away on this fairly obscure internet forum. After all, they're the ones with a military budget less than a tenth that of the United States, so that savings has to go somewhere!

 

[Seanchaidh]

NATO rejects Ukraine's demand for no fly zones. "We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine," says Stoltenberg.

Good, if also a reasonableness that has shown up quite late.

 

[bluegate]

NATO rejects Ukraine's demand for no fly zones. "We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine," says Stoltenberg.

Good, if also a reasonableness that has shown up quite late.

Bootlicker.

It's pure appeasement and that will not end well in the future.

 

[Seanchaidh]

The white supremacism really showing itself a lot now.

It's pure appeasement and that will not end well in the future.

Sorry that you won't get a World War 3? If it makes you feel any better, there will still be a lot of bloodshed and weapons sales.

 

[Worgen]

Mmm, yes, Russia definitely has the resources to piss away on this fairly obscure internet forum. After all, they're the ones with a military budget less than a tenth that of the United States, so that savings has to go somewhere!

Actually, yeah, they probably do. Russia is big on propaganda and they are good at it. Its not just one little forum, its a concentrated effort across all social media. A little here, a little there, then you have people saying "Oh yeah, I heard about that" when something is brought up in conversation. Besides, I never said you were paid well.

 

[Worgen]

Bootlicker.

It's pure appeasement and that will not end well in the future.

Unfortunately, its probably best that NATO doesn't get directly involved here. Because of nukes. No telling how willing Russia is to just lay waste to the world, but we certainly have an 'end of the world' possibility here. I feel that Putin is totally willing to nuke the world, but I'm not sure how much support the rest of the leadership or the people that actually have to press the buttons would be.