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Silvanus

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No, it's pretty arbitrary.
Gonna address any of those reasons it isn't, or just say nuh-uh?

I don't particularly care whether Zelensky holds on to power (aside from a general wish for international proletarian revolution, which isn't particularly relevant here). Something should be done so that Ukraine is not a hotspot that could lead to nuclear escalation. That means engaging with reality, not some silly fantasy where Russia backs down because you want them to and they recognize that, actually, Silvanus was right about their security not really being in any danger.
Ukraine has no nuclear weapons and holds no foreign military bases. It wasn't a hotspot for nuclear escalation by any sane metric. The only nuclear escalation here has come from Russia, insisting it must control its neighbour's foreign policy and then threatening nuclear attack against anyone who intervenes. But you don't have an issue with that.

"Security" was always a paper-thin pretext for Russia. Putin doesn't need to "recognise" Russia was not in any danger from Ukraine, because he knew from the get-go; Ukraine poses them no serious threat, has never attacked them or threatened them.
 
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Hades

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Hardly arbitrary, now, is it? Russia has proven itself an absolutely dismal regional patriarch: endlessly threatening destruction on any neighbours that don't toe the line, waging covert (as well as not so covert) wars against them, installing puppet regimes, and annexing land. And then when they do take control, you have mass extrajudicial killings, reporters hunted down, gay people exterminated. And with Russia stating that the existence of the Ukrainian state is unacceptable, and that they cannot be allowed to be neutral, its clear the only form of "rapprochement" Russia would ever brook is domination.
Indeed. Russia has made it perfectly clear that none of their neighbors will ever be able to rest easy as long as they border Russia. Even before trying trying to destroy Ukraine like they do now they tried to strip it of its sovereignty during the Yanukovitch regime, and before that they went around poisoning Ukrainian presidents when they got a wee bit independent from Moscow. Its not just Ukraine either. In just about every neighboring country the Russian army forcefully intervened against their governments or the citizens living in those countries. Very few citizens of Russia's neighbors actually want to be within Russia's sphere of influence, and Russia's response to this is almost always a violent intervention.

And this all very neatly fits into the historical pattern that Russia keeps repeating. Whether its the Tsars, the Soviets or Putin, Russia has always been extremely violent towards its neighbors and completely unwilling to allow them any independence from Moscow.
 

Seanchaidh

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Gonna address any of those reasons it isn't, or just say nuh-uh?
Oh, you're so right, the Nazis are being totally rational and their views are not arbitrary. The predilection of Ukrainian oligarchs to favor integration with Europe is actually just an organic expression of the will of the people of Ukraine. Sure thing, 'socialist'.

Zelensky won his election campaign on a platform of rapprochement with Russia and peace in the Donbas (a platform that was of course never realized or seriously pursued). So like... NOT EVEN THE PROPAGANDIZED UKRAINIAN PUBLIC AGREED WITH YOU.

Ukraine has no nuclear weapons and holds no foreign military bases. It wasn't a hotspot for nuclear escalation by any sane metric. The only nuclear escalation here has come from Russia, insisting it must control its neighbour's foreign policy and then threatening nuclear attack against anyone who intervenes. But you don't have an issue with that.

"Security" was always a paper-thin pretext for Russia. Putin doesn't need to "recognise" Russia was not in any danger from Ukraine, because he knew from the get-go; Ukraine poses them no serious threat, has never attacked them or threatened them.
Could you summarize the situation in any more rosy and incomplete a way? They were getting arms from NATO countries including the United States. They were seeking NATO membership; NATO was publicly saying NATO membership could happen. They were shelling the Donbas-- over eight years killing thousands-- and massing troops there despite treaty obligations to cease fire and grant autonomy. There are seemingly countless stories about how the government incorporates or funds Nazi groups, glorifies Nazi collaborators, or how privately funded neo-Nazi paramilitary groups kill marginalized people in Ukraine e.g. Roma with impunity.


But Russia invaded in late February, so that marks a new beginning of history; none of this stuff happened.

What makes Ukraine a hotspot of nuclear escalation is: Ukraine is taking a very hostile line against Russia after a western-backed coup with continued western support. Ukrainian oligarchs fund groups that glorify collaborators of the regime-- Nazi Germany-- that killed tens of millions of Russians and the Ukrainian government incorporates such groups into its military and police, understandably leading to unease in Russia. Russians in general are not going to be very tolerant of violence directed against Russian Ukrainians. Ukraine is transparently being used as a way for the United States/NATO to threaten Russia or, at the very least, give Russia the impression that is their intent which in practice amounts to the same thing. And Ukraine shares a long border with Russia as well as Russian ally Belarus and Russia and the United States both have thousands of nuclear weapons attached to intercontinental ballistic missiles. Moreover, now that Russia and Ukraine are at war, the United States is bragging about how its intelligence has been used by Ukraine to kill Russian generals and sink Russian ships, and is going to send military aid to Ukraine with a price tag that is more than half of all Russian military spending (on top of previous aid packages this year). It literally is now a proxy war and the United States isn't even trying to conceal it. Or maybe they're doing even more than they are publicly bragging about; that is also possible.

Meanwhile you're here worried about a Nazi-friendly government's "freedom to make its own foreign policy" which in practice amounts to joining a military alliance that attacks countries because their welfare state is a bit too generous and/or their government doesn't allow corporate campaign contributors to the Republican and Democratic parties to own their mineral and agricultural resources and allowing that military alliance to use their country as a launching pad for attacks. Such anti-imperialism, very principled. *everyone applauds*
 

Thaluikhain

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Biden has decided not to fund Covid measures in the US because the Republicans told him it'd slow down aid to Ukraine.

 

Silvanus

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Oh, you're so right, the Nazis are being totally rational and their views are not arbitrary. The predilection of Ukrainian oligarchs to favor integration with Europe is actually just an organic expression of the will of the people of Ukraine. Sure thing, 'socialist'.
Jesus Christ, why don't you address what was actually said, rather than this irrelevant strawman blather? Do you genuinely believe the only people who want to integrate with the European economies rather than the stagnant, decaying Russian economy are "oligarchs" and "Nazis"?

That's obviously not the case. The population at large was far more favourable towards integration with Europe than with Russia. And it makes sense: Russia offered a profoundly worse case for integration, whilst also constantly threatening their neighbours with destruction and invasion. And you're here telling me that only a "Nazi" wouldn't want rapprochement with the power that states it wants them destroyed? Only a "Nazi" wouldn't want rapprochement with the power covertly sending its soldiers over the border, disguised, to fight against them?!

You're not that stupid.

Zelensky won his election campaign on a platform of rapprochement with Russia and peace in the Donbas (a platform that was of course never realized or seriously pursued). So like... NOT EVEN THE PROPAGANDIZED UKRAINIAN PUBLIC AGREED WITH YOU.
Zelensky's focus shifted quite drastically during the campaign. He was quite clearly combative towards Russia by the time voting was done. So no, the voters weren't tricked by a post-election bait-and-switch (like Yanukovych's voters were).

Could you summarize the situation in any more rosy and incomplete a way? They were getting arms from NATO countries including the United States. They were seeking NATO membership; NATO was publicly saying NATO membership could happen.
Yes indeed. Which is not a threat to Russia's existence. In eastern Europe, Russia has proven that being outside NATO puts one at a significant risk of Russian invasion or Russian-sponsored insurgency. It's sad, but NATO represents the only realistic chance of defence. Were you watching as Putin directly threatened Sweden and Finland? Or as Pushilin advocated for expanding territorial expansion into Moldova? Being outside NATO makes you one thing to Russia: vulnerable.

They were shelling the Donbas-- over eight years killing thousands-- and massing troops there despite treaty obligations to cease fire and grant autonomy.
Treaty obligations which were signed with Russia, and which Russia broke first, and far more drastically. The DPR and LPR being established and functioning as a Russian insurgency on Ukrainian territory.

What you're effectively preaching here is that one side has the right to break the treaty, and the other is bound by it. And that Russia can covertly set up a proxy and insurgency on foreign land, and even send in the troops (disguised), and the host country does not have the right to fight back.

There are seemingly countless stories about how the government incorporates or funds Nazi groups, glorifies Nazi collaborators, or how privately funded neo-Nazi paramilitary groups kill marginalized people in Ukraine e.g. Roma with impunity.
None of which had the slightest impact on Russia's decision to invade. We know Russia has no problem with the presence of Nazi groups, Nazi collaborators, or privately funded Nazi paramilities killing marginalised people, because Russia sponsors all of those things on a far larger scale. Are you telling me they take a principled stance against those things in Ukraine, while gleefully supporting them everywhere else? Once again, you're not that stupid, and this is just pretext.


What makes Ukraine a hotspot of nuclear escalation is: Ukraine is taking a very hostile line against Russia after a western-backed coup with continued western support.
Nope. Its "line against Russia" was absolutely nowhere near as hostile as the line Russia took against Ukraine, which you have zero problem with. And "western-backed coup" still just equates to... a paltry few hundred thousand dollars, arrayed against an incumbent would-be dictator sponsored by Russian investment of a far larger magnitude.

If Maidan is a "western-backed coup with continued western support", then Yanukovych is a "Russian-backed dictator with continued Russian support", rendering Ukraine an illegally controlled proxy. But again, you have no problem with foreign meddling and foreign sponsorship... when it comes from one direction.

Meanwhile you're here worried about a Nazi-friendly government's "freedom to make its own foreign policy" which in practice amounts to joining a military alliance that attacks countries because their welfare state is a bit too generous and/or their government doesn't allow corporate campaign contributors to the Republican and Democratic parties to own their mineral and agricultural resources and allowing that military alliance to use their country as a launching pad for attacks. Such anti-imperialism, very principled. *everyone applauds*
Complete hysteria.

NATO is many things to many states, many of them aggressive and proscriptive. In Eastern Europe, it is presently the only realistic chance of defence against a nuclear neighbour which constantly attacks, invades, annexes and threatens outright destruction on its neighbours.

And the idea that NATO would launch a first-strike invasion or first-strike nuclear attack on Russia if it counted Ukraine among its members is frankly idiotic.
 
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Hades

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Ukraine is taking a very hostile line against Russia after a western-backed coup with continued western support.
Maybe Ukraine being hostile to Russia isn't a western plot, but a natural result of Russia's continues attempt to subjugate Ukraine. Of course Ukrainians would turn on Russia when Russia forbids them from forming their own policies, and then invades and illegally occupies their lands when Ukraine insists its independent. The source of every Russian setback in Ukraine stems from Russia's own malicious interference with the Ukrainian state. If they didn't want their puppet kicked out they shouldn't have forbade Ukraine from making trade deals, if they don't want hostilities with Ukraine then Russia shouldn't have initiated those hostilities.
 

Agema

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Maybe Ukraine being hostile to Russia isn't a western plot, but a natural result of Russia's continues attempt to subjugate Ukraine.
Seanchaidh can't accept that sort of reasoning, though, because then it would force him to consider Russia as an aggressive, imperialist power in its own right, rather than some luckless victim of the West.

They were... massing troops there despite treaty obligations to cease fire and grant autonomy.
Funny. When Russia massed troops on the Ukrainian border, you were arguing it was harmless and Russia's right to put troops where it wished on its own territory.

One might note that it was the separatists who continued a military offensive after the ceasefire date, on the grounds that they unilaterally declared that the ceasefire did not apply to a specific town they wanted to take over. After that bad start, the Minsk (II) accords were effectively killed off with wholesale breaches by both sides of the conflict. Russia continued to pump arms, including heavy weapons, into separatist areas. Zelenskyy did of course attempt to engage Russia, in the context that the Minsk accords had totally failed to end the conflict, and that Russia was itself far from blameless in that. It is only your outrageous pro-Russian bias that would lead you to present it as uniquely the fault of the Ukrainian government.

This whole line, along with the whole Nazi perspective, serves no purpose except as a dishonest attempt to scapegoat Ukraine that is indistinguishable from Kremlin propaganda.
 

Terminal Blue

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The United States et al. are able to manipulate Ukraine in a variety of ways because it is poor
So what?

The United States is not a major trading partner of Ukraine. It isn't sponsoring an economically crippling insurgency in part of the country that it could end support for if it wished. It doesn't have the ability to make Ukraine poorer or richer in the way, for example, that Russia does and currently is. There's very little the US could do to influence Ukraine's economy short of the very obvious step of direct aid, which is a fundamentally limited form of influence.

The primary economic players in Ukraine are not the United States, but its main historical and current trading partners, Russia on one hand and the various countries comprising the European Union on the other. Russia, since 2014, has sought the deliberate impoverishment of the Ukrainian economy through various forms of economic warfare. In fact, one key effect of the Russian-sponsored insurgency has been to cripple what was formerly a key industrial region. That is what economic control looks like. That is what the US did in South America. Economic domination is not defined by the carrot, it's defined by the stick.

The funding of anti-Russian propaganda in Ukraine is both foreign and domestic; that domestic energy to serve the interests of US foreign policy has been created by decades of support for its nationalists doesn't make Ukraine any less a satellite.
It is, once again, incredibly revealing that you cannot imagine the possibility of any form of agency or autonomous thought on the part of any human being who is not an American.

Because if you could, you could perhaps identify some of the mechanisms that have created that "domestic energy" without the need to imagine some secret American mastermind armed with magically effective propaganda.

So there are two competing theories about who was actually shooting people. One is that the police was shooting protestors. The other is that Nazis were shooting protestors (and police). Or perhaps those are two extremes on a spectrum of possibilities. In any case...
It is undeniable that there was some degree of fire exchanged between police/security services and protestors (also the anti-Maidan paramilitaries and vigilantes, many of whom were also armed) and that live ammunition was used by both sides. It is highly possible that both sides shot civilians accidentally or deliberately or that many of those who died were killed in crossfire. What is absolutely certain, however, is that the security services did shoot people.

The security services are not police, particularly in the former Soviet states. They may perform the same functions on occasion, but institutionally and culturally they are quite distinct. Even if you personally disbelieve it, the willingness of Ukrainians to believe that their own security services carried out deliberate and indiscriminate murder of their own citizens indicates the degree to which they see their own security services as an instrument of political repression, and as politically invested in the maintenance of patronage networks tying them to the ruling elite. Do you believe they are incorrect in that perception?

Given that it was the Nazis who were on the side who came to power and, as you allege, that it was the police that was shooting people, why didn't investigations by the new government produce any shooters?
They did.

They have not convicted anyone yet, and there is good reason to believe that some of the people arrested may have been arrested wrongfully or may otherwise avoid conviction. It is difficult to identify someone in a balaclava and full body armour as a specific individual, which is indeed part of the point. Since those being tried are members of the security services, it is also reasonable to assume that they enjoy a degree of political protection from colleagues and former patrons. However, it should also be telling that even those on trial are typically not denying that their units engaged in shooting, they are merely denying that they were personally responsible.

I also think it's very convenient that the evidence pointing to this neo-Nazi false flag operation seems to only be visible to a small number of political and academic commentators living (for the most part) in the West.
 
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Terminal Blue

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Coverage in western media blamed the Yanukovych government. And you buy that because western media is always accurate about such things.
I buy it because I trust the perspective of Ukranians who were present and understand the political situation more than I trust the perspective of Americans writing blogs and twitter posts parroting known Russian disinformation campaigns. While the information I have access to is certainly mediated, I'd be willing to bet it's far, far less mediated than yours.

Your insistence on downplaying the role of Nazis in overthrowing Ukraine's government is a bit weird.
I have never denied the involvement of Nazis in every part of this ongoing situation. Eastern Europe in general has a neo-Nazi problem. There are neo-Nazi paramilitaries fighting on both sides of the current conflict. What I don't buy is this ridiculous notion that the Russian government is a beacon of anti-fascism and that everyone who oppose its interests becomes a Nazi by default. I think people are Nazis when they engage in Nazism, not because they engage in Ukrainian nationalism as opposed to Russian nationalism.

The fact that neo-Nazi organizations have achieved a frankly disturbing level of electoral success in Ukraine is worrying, and yet not particularly shocking to me. The same would absolutely be true in Russia if Russia actually had real elections.

This doesn't really have anything to do with anything relevant.
I will express it in a more direct form once again then, since you failed to address this point.

What exactly do you think was different about Ukraine's economic system prior to 2014 that made it less subject to global capitalism?

What fever dream gave you the impression that I like the current structure of the Russian economy?
The fact that you seem to believe alignment with and economic exploitation by that economy is a successful counter to global capitalism.

IIRC, you've said that you think the end of the Soviet Union was a good thing-- for the left! 🤣 -- but I certainly don't think that.
If the Soviet Union is your model of an alternative to capitalism, then that is, if anything, even more pitiable. The Soviet Union, after all, failed so badly it turned into Russia.
 
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Agema

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To be fair, bar a small minority of nationalists, Ukrainians didn't hate Russia much. They wanted to get along well with Russia, many spoke Russian as first choice language, had Russian friends and relatives, etc.

And then 2013-4 happened.

At the point Russia very visibly pressured the Ukrainian president to drop the promise of EU-Ukrainian trade agreements and then propped him up as he ordered security forces to shoot protestors, opinions on Russia started to dip. When, after the Ukrainian president's ousting, Russia stealth invaded Crimea and then manufactured separatist movements in the Donbas and armed and funded them, opinions on Russia pretty much crashed.
 
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Silvanus

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Russia has again threatened to take "military-technical" action against Finland if Finland joins NATO. It stated that the scale would depend on the movement of assets to Finland.


Of course, Russia invaded Ukraine (twice) without them having joined NATO, and without them hosting any NATO assets. So Finland, Sweden and Moldova will clearly know that acquiescence to Russian demands on those grounds wouldn't actually protect them from Russian invasion anyway.
 
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Thaluikhain

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Once Finland joins NATO it's sorta not a great idea for people to attack it, especially when not doing great in invading somewhere else.
 

Silvanus

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Once Finland joins NATO it's sorta not a great idea for people to attack it, especially when not doing great in invading somewhere else.
Well this is precisely the issue. Russia has created a situation in which being a NATO member provides safety from Russian invasion, and remaining outside NATO results in threat and invasion.

They've provided a powerful case for NATO membership, strong enough to overcome decades of military non-alliance from Sweden and Finland.

When Russia threatens invasion, Finland's only reliable way to avoid attack is to quicken accession to NATO. Because agreeing to Russian demands would just result in invasion anyway.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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When Russia threatens invasion, Finland's only reliable way to avoid attack is to quicken accession to NATO. Because agreeing to Russian demands would just result in invasion anyway.
Kinda funny how "we'll destroy you unless you make it easier for us to destroy you" doesn't garner much in the way of cooperation.
 

CM156

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In response to this invasion, a lot of Soviet era statues are coming down in former USSR/Eastern Bloc countries.
 
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Agema

You have no authority here, Jackie Weaver
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In response to this invasion, a lot of Soviet era statues are coming down in former USSR/Eastern Bloc countries.
Predictable.

A load of them came down at the end of the Communist era, but war memorials particularly tended to be spared due to the offence to Russian sensibilities and recognition of the war effort. However, even those are not popular in many ex-Soviet nations like Latvia, because they remember that it was the Communist USSR that invaded and stripped them of their independence, not the Nazis. (The Soviet invasion was accompanied by a reign of terror involving executions, mass deportations and so on equivalent to the sort of thing the Nazis got up to.)

Putin has chosen to thoroughly embrace the Soviet military legacy for Russian imperialism. As this imperialism has ended in invasion of countries that should be viewed as partners in the Soviet defeat of the Nazis, it irrevocably tarnishes the Soviet war effort he uses to bolster it. Although, of course, pulling down these monuments also plays into Putin's messaging that they are Nazis.

In fact, it's remarkable how similar modern Russian tactics in Ukraine are to 1940, in the sense of sending in a load of collaborators to take over and run bogus elections, and strip out the population who aren't loyal to massively distant places. The only thing he's lacking is a military with the overwhelming size of the Red Army.
 

Silvanus

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Funny, a few years ago, Trump and Brexit were making quite a mess of NATO and European unity, and now Putin's patching things up again.
And Putin paid good money for Trump and Brexit! He's tanking his own investment.

The only thing he's lacking is a military with the overwhelming size of the Red Army.
As well as an aim that the military servicemen actually want to fight for.
 
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Agema

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As well as an aim that the military servicemen actually want to fight for.
To be fair, I don't think the Soviets had that either. Records of captured Soviet troops don't tend to present motivated, principled, fervent soldiers so much as poor sods brought up to do what they were told who expected an early death.

Hence "overwhelming size" rather than "effectiveness".
 
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