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EvilRoy

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Once Finland joins NATO it's sorta not a great idea for people to attack it, especially when not doing great in invading somewhere else.
To be frank, having just read up on the composition of the Finnish Defense Forces, and I don't think it's a good idea at any point for Russia to try them. I won't pretend to be a mastermind general, but just going by pure numbers and equipment Finland is goddamn dangerous. Home ice advantage too.

Unless Russia threatens using nuclear weapons, I don't see them winning a conflict with Finland, particularly given that Finland is definitely preparing to be attacked right now. At this stage NATO membership might be more of a high visibility deterrent to avoid loss of life than a necessary requirement for Finland to survive a conflict.
 

Dalisclock

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Once Finland joins NATO it's sorta not a great idea for people to attack it, especially when not doing great in invading somewhere else.
I Would think the Russians would do well to remember the Winter War of 1940.

Molotov Cocktail wasn't a silly name someone came up with.
 
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Silvanus

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I only wish it were practical to melt these statues down and turn it into weapons to give to Ukraine.
For poetic reasons, of course.
It's true that Putin clearly harkens back to the Soviet era in the sense that he imagines Russia as commanding a huge international sphere of influence and imperial ambitions. But there's also a minor irony in pulling down Soviet monuments, in that Putin's government is also virulently anti-communist. That aspect of the USSR he holds no nostalgia for, as an ultra-capitalist and Christian nationalist.

Recall that he stated he would increase Ukraine's so-called "decommunisation", not reverse it or anything of that nature.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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It's true that Putin clearly harkens back to the Soviet era in the sense that he imagines Russia as commanding a huge international sphere of influence and imperial ambitions. But there's also a minor irony in pulling down Soviet monuments, in that Putin's government is also virulently anti-communist. That aspect of the USSR he holds no nostalgia for, as an ultra-capitalist and Christian nationalist.

Recall that he stated he would increase Ukraine's so-called "decommunisation", not reverse it or anything of that nature.
Which makes the rabid defense he's receiving from certain people who think he's going to build a new worker's paradise pretty silly, if you spend even the briefest of moments thinking about it.
 

Terminal Blue

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It's true that Putin clearly harkens back to the Soviet era in the sense that he imagines Russia as commanding a huge international sphere of influence and imperial ambitions. But there's also a minor irony in pulling down Soviet monuments, in that Putin's government is also virulently anti-communist. That aspect of the USSR he holds no nostalgia for, as an ultra-capitalist and Christian nationalist.
I feel like cold war narratives about the Soviet Union shaped our perception of its people. We tend to assume that everyone in the Soviet Union was on the political left, that they essentially believed (however hypocritically) in some kind of egalitarian society. The reality is that a lot of people in the Soviet Union subscribed to ideals and beliefs that we would associate very strongly with the political right.

Western media sometimes refers to Putin is a strongman, but as I understand it this is a literal translation of a Russian word, silovik, that has a more specific meaning. Namely, it means someone with a background in the security services. These people essentially function as both a subculture and social class unto themselves in Russia. They have a particular in-group mentality that in many way resembles organized crime (indeed, there are a lot of overlaps between siloviki and organized crime). Because the security services were deeply corrupt and nepotistic, many have family ties or histories with the security services going back multiple generations and have developed a kind of hereditary culture.

The people who joined organizations like the KGB were never idealists. They never saw themselves as building a better or more egalitarian world, but as an elite with the personal strength to do what was necessary to advance the national interest. They were typically social conservative and distrustful of anything and anyone which challenged the status quo. In any other society, they would have been called right-wing, and when the Soviet Union fell they didn't fundamentally change, they just became openly right wing.

While Westerners who feel nostalgic about the Soviet union tend to be leftists (at least on paper, I don't think that's as clear cut as tankies like to pretend it is) it's perfectly possible, in a Russian context, to be right wing while expressing nostalgia for the Soviet Union. I think a lot of people who lived in the Soviet Union always understood the performative nature of Soviet ideology in relation to the political reality. The nostalgia is for a strong, authoritarian state willing to enforce social conformity, clamp down on moral and intellectual degeneracy and compete with foreign powers on the world stage. For many people, that's what was "real" about the Soviet union, the ideology was just a tool to that end.
 
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Silvanus

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This genuinely made me laugh, in a despairing sort of way. This is a direct quote from the Russian embassy in Latvia, referring to Latvia's decision to withdraw protections from Soviet monuments;

"This traitorous, unjustified step has neither moral nor legal grounds and constitutes a flagrant violation of the universally recognised principles and norms of international law, including the provisions of this very treaty [a 1994 treaty protecting Soviet monuments].

This situation clearly demonstrates for the entire responsible international community the true face of the political elite of modern Latvia: cynicism, double standards, a complete rejection of civilised ways of settling interstate issues and brazen disregard for the fundamental principles of international law."

A 'complete rejection of civilised ways of settling interstate iasues' you say! 'Violation of the norms of international law' you say! Is there absolutely no self-awareness whatsoever?

---

Russian forces have attempted a river crossing in territory they did not control in the Donetsk region, resulting in huge losses of equipment and armoured vehicles. As people probably know, river crossings are very slow-going manoeuvres, and attempting one in uncontrolled territory is massively risky and usually a last resort.

 

Lykosia

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Erdogan is against of Finland and Sweden joining NATO

That unfortunately doesn't surprise me. I've been surprised that people haven't talked much about Turkey who seems to be trying to play both sides. Other one I'm a bit worried is Hungary. If Putin tells Hungary that Russia will cut the pipes unless Hungary will prevent Finland's and Sweden's NATO bid, what choice Hungary really has? Hungary is completely dependent on Russian oil and gas right now.
 

Agema

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I Would think the Russians would do well to remember the Winter War of 1940.
I suspect even the Russians have learnt from this that they really need to not fight anyone halfway capable of fighting back. Not least because this dismal performance against Ukraine is after a major period of military investment and modernisation.
 

Gergar12

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Finland has now bid for Nato membership. Sweden actually hasn't. For once we do something before them.
I value Sweden joining over Finland. For one thing, Sweden has a better arms industry, military, and economy. For another Finland is closer to Russia, and would be harder to defend. The only positive Finland has over Sweden is that since Finland is closer, you can build anti-ballistic missile systems and anti-aircraft, and anti-ship emplacements there, and maybe even Germany-style nuclear sharing. I also am not afraid of Russia doing the same to Cuba, because the US can carpet bomb Cuba faster than Russia can carpet bomb Finland, and the Baltics.

A lot of the people against NATO expansion are anti-American leftists whose every word should be taken with a grain of salt on Foreign policy due to being a fifth column in the US(Jimmy Dore, Glen Greenwald, and Snowden) and risk-averse isolationist Trumpers like Steve Bannon and Rand Paul.

Edit: Anti-aircraft and anti-ship
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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I suspect even the Russians have learnt from this that they really need to not fight anyone halfway capable of fighting back. Not least because this dismal performance against Ukraine is after a major period of military investment and modernisation.
We're getting close to jokes like "The fifth-largest army in the world became the second-largest army in the Ukraine".
 

bluegate

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For another Finland is closer to Russia, and would be harder to defend.
That should make you value Finland joining over Sweden, because Finland is a direct neighbor, they're under a direct threat of Russia and would need the help the most.

For Russians to get to Sweden they'd first have to plow through Finland, so Sweden is somewhat in a safe spot.
 

Gergar12

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That should make you value Finland joining over Sweden, because Finland is a direct neighbor, they're under a direct threat of Russia and would need the help the most.

For Russians to get to Sweden they'd first have to plow through Finland, so Sweden is somewhat in a safe spot.
Sweden has the better military.
 

Dalisclock

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That should make you value Finland joining over Sweden, because Finland is a direct neighbor, they're under a direct threat of Russia and would need the help the most.

For Russians to get to Sweden they'd first have to plow through Finland, so Sweden is somewhat in a safe spot.
*Insert joke here about the Swedish assembling artillery out of a box with easy to follow directions before using with it deadly effect upon an invader*
 

Agema

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That should make you value Finland joining over Sweden, because Finland is a direct neighbor, they're under a direct threat of Russia and would need the help the most.

For Russians to get to Sweden they'd first have to plow through Finland, so Sweden is somewhat in a safe spot.
I'm pretty sure Finland is mostly lakes and dense forest: good luck getting an army through that easily. It's superb defensive territory, as the Soviets discovered in 1940.
 
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Lykosia

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Sweden has the better military.
Based on what? Sweden has better navy sure, in air they're quite equal, but on land Finland absolutely destroys Sweden. More men (war time strenght 55k vs 280k), more tanks, more artillery (Finland has the largest artillery in western Europe).
 

Silvanus

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Sweden has the better military.
...which means Finland would be more likely to need help.

You're viewing this purely from the perspective of strengthening NATO, not from the perspective of the countries requiring protection.
 
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