Our Covid Response

tstorm823

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never going to give a very smart view of a pandemic.
What if I said to you that COVID is a variant of common cold, and when it has successfully gone through the population once, it is no longer any more threat to those who experienced it than any other cold?

Suddenly, lots of cases but few in actual danger is the expected behavior.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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This is not a very useful Twitter post at all.

The colours will relate to number of cases or number of cases per capita, but these are arbitrary values. Neither figure is necessarily more or less misleading than the other without contextual information for what the categorisation of the colours are and why those ranges were used. A range might want to give a good span of the data: the green map lacks granularity at the lower end, but the red one lacks granularity at the high end.

Let's imagine a hypothetical disease where there was a peak with up to 5000 cases per 100,000 people a week. Using a 3 colour chart, they set 0-1000 as green, 1001-3000 as yellow, and 3001+ as red. Then three months later, using this categorisation, it's well past peak and infections have plummetted so green abounds. So someone decides to change the ranges: this better represents the current infections, but it is arguably misleading people how severe the infection risk is, given that everywhere it is much lower than the peak.

So what is the right thing to do? That's not an easy answer. Trite Twitter posts like that don't help enlighten.

One can argue that colour selection also matters for the visual impact (red = alarming, green = soothing). But if that is so, a graph that goes blue-yellow-orange-red is weighted towards making someone feel worried; why is this better than green-yellow-orange that's weighted towards making someone feeling reassured? And again, see the issue with granularity above, which accentuates the issue.
Yeah, it's missing context.

The context is that the CDC says that green counties can open up because their covid numbers are down, but the only reason the covid numbers are down is because they changed how they counted the numbers.
 

crimson5pheonix

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What if I said to you that COVID is a variant of common cold, and when it has successfully gone through the population once, it is no longer any more threat to those who experienced it than any other cold?
I'd say you have an idiotic opinion that has been put forward before and repeatedly shot down.
 

tstorm823

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I'd say you have an idiotic opinion that has been put forward before and repeatedly shot down.
I'd say you're amazingly cavalier when it comes to risking the lives of other people.
Seriously, what do either of you think happened when every other cold virus came into existence. Look at the how prevalent common colds are even when cause by variations of virus that have been around for centuries for people to adapt and develop immunity to them. There are already coronaviruses perpetually present in the human population, causing mild symptoms in people who have probably already encountered them multiple times in their lives. If ever you think a virus is just a common cold, understand that it's just a common cold now, because everyone is constantly exposed to it and our immune systems can handle it from experience. The threat of covid was that it was a virus that older populations with weaker immune systems hadn't interacted with and couldn't fight off that initial exposure. Once you are beyond initial exposure (vaccines count for that) it is now the common cold to you. You may get mild symptoms, it's only a serious threat if you are already dying or otherwise immunocompromised, which is true of all the viruses that make up the common cold. This is the end state, it is not risky nor uncertain, this is how things are, accept it.
 

Dalisclock

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So in other news, we finally got hit. On Friday my wife, my kid and I were feeling sick, and on saturday all of us took COVID home tests. My wife and my kid were positive, Mine was negative. I took follow up on sunday, still negative. We've all been isolating at home all the same, So far most of the symptoms have been mild though my wife has been feeling fairly crappy yesterday and today. My kid was fine until yesterday when she started having pains in the abdomen and were advised to go to the ER. We thought she had appendicitis but it turned out to be swelling of the lymph nodes(a covid related issue) and they told us we could go home unless it got worse. Luckily she's feeling much better today, so much that she's not even acting sick.No fever, appetite normal. etc.

I tested again today and had a third negative covid test. I've been pretty much with my wife and/or kid at home(except the ER visit) nonstop since friday evening. How I've yet to contract it when they have it I have no fucking clue, but I'm staying home regardless just in case, at least until they're clear. As far as I know I've never gotten it either, though I've been vaxxed and so have my family.
 

Kwak

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What if I said to you that COVID is a variant of common cold, and when it has successfully gone through the population once, it is no longer any more threat to those who experienced it than any other cold?
If this is based on just your layman opinion, then I would say, shut the fuck up and stop spreading potentially life-ending bullshit shamelessly.
If this was based on actual scientific data, I would say, citations please.
 

tstorm823

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If this is based on just your layman opinion, then I would say, shut the fuck up and stop spreading potentially life-ending bullshit shamelessly.
If this was based on actual scientific data, I would say, citations please.
I could try and put together a portfolio of sources on existing coronaviruses and experts predicting the eventual endemic nature of covid19, or I could not bother and wait a year or two and we can see for ourselves. Nobody is basing public policy on my ramblings here, nobody is dying on my word either way, time will prove me right.
 

Agema

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Seriously, what do either of you think happened when every other cold virus came into existence.
Potentially... they gave people a common cold. There's no compelling reason to assume a new zoonotic disease must be highly lethal.

Sure, possibly some were much more dangerous until humans (and the virus) adapted over time. But we just don't know, do we? One might note influenza has been around for ages too, and yet it's still vastly more lethal than the common cold despite also having centuries of adaptation and immunity.

I don't think experts are so much "predicting" the eventual course of covid as they are postulating possible courses. Mostly we just have to wait and see, and neither specious optimism and specious despair are very useful.
 
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tstorm823

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Potentially... they gave people a common cold. There's no compelling reason to assume a new zoonotic disease must be highly lethal.
I disagree. Any virus released into a immunologically naive population is always going to be much more dangerous than it is in a well adapted population, especially among the elderly. In elderly people, any infection you're not prepared for should be seen as highly lethal. Which is what covid19 has been.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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I disagree.
Your agreement is not required
Any virus released into a immunologically naive population is always going to be much more dangerous than it is in a well adapted population, especially among the elderly. In elderly people, any infection you're not prepared for should be seen as highly lethal. Which is what covid19 has been.
SARS Cov 2 has also been quite a bit more deadly that other coronaviruses in the non-elderly population too.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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"It only has a 90% mortality rate!"

We're so fucking doomed if something like this becomes easily transmitted
 

Kwak

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"It only has a 90% mortality rate!"

We're so fucking doomed if something like this becomes easily transmitted
So, mortality is the opposite or the same as fatality?
(Looked it up...)
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Mortality represents the number of deaths per unit of population (100,000 now generally used and indicated) which population consists of the sick and the well, thus:

mortality

= deaths (for a given illness)/unit of population (100,000 sick and well)

Fatality is based on the number of deaths per 100 cases of a given disease:
 
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Agema

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I disagree. Any virus released into a immunologically naive population is always going to be much more dangerous than it is in a well adapted population, especially among the elderly.
Firstly, you're confusing two concepts here. Immunity is something an individual gains on exposure to a disease (that doesn't kill them). Adaptation is what a population does via evolutionary processes over a much longer timescale.

Secondly, a new zoonotic disease may not be very harmful at all, for instance because in jumping species, it is poorly optimised to the new host.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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So, mortality is the opposite or the same as fatality?
(Looked it up...)
-
Mortality represents the number of deaths per unit of population (100,000 now generally used and indicated) which population consists of the sick and the well, thus:

mortality

= deaths (for a given illness)/unit of population (100,000 sick and well)

Fatality is based on the number of deaths per 100 cases of a given disease:
Yeah, I mixed that up. They were blase about 90% of the people getting it surviving

Though a disease that kills one in ten is still horrific.

Sounds like the smallpox vaccine if effective against it, but the o lying people in the US who gets that tend to be military who expect to deploy. Something about the injection site having the potential to infect others with smallpox, so you have to be careful with laundry and hygiene
 

tstorm823

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Uhrm, yes, massively.
It is entirely unknown how long coronaviruses have been circulating the human population. For all we know, there were historical plagues caused by the things. The first coronavirus to be isolated was in chickens, and was studied because the new strain was killing entire chicken populations. Human coronaviruses were found in common cold studies, so they've very likely been around longer than germ theory, as chances are they didn't suddenly appear in humans causing mild symptoms at exactly the moment in time when scientists were discovering and categorizing viruses.