Ukraine

[Silvanus]

So the song of the day in Beijing is "Anything you can do, I can do better"?

I imagine they've certainly been watching the speed/extent/limitations of Western support for Ukraine with interest.

And they're also likely to factor in that the West is collectively less likely to go to such lengths for Taiwan. Ukraine is after all an internationally-recognised sovereign nation, and an EU candidate.

 

[Hades]

I imagine they've certainly been watching the speed/extent/limitations of Western support for Ukraine with interest.

And they're also likely to factor in that the West is collectively less likely to go to such lengths for Taiwan. Ukraine is after all an internationally-recognised sovereign nation, and an EU candidate.

Probably far more likely. Isn’t Taiwan about the only place where you can mine metals vital for advanced technology?

 

[Agema]

Probably far more likely. Isn’t Taiwan about the only place where you can mine metals vital for advanced technology?

Definitely not.

 

[Satinavian]

Probably far more likely. Isn’t Taiwan about the only place where you can mine metals vital for advanced technology?

It has a couple of factories that are very vital for global supply chaines which makes some people very worried. But it does not have any unique ressources or even technology. That makes it a short term vulnerability to all economies but not a prize to be fought over.

The thing is that it is not internationally recognized but pretty much guaranteed by the US. Unfortunately nearly only by the US. "The West" as such has no commitment there.

In a sense the Ukraine war made it harder to abandon Taiwan. After the US put so much effort into helping Ukraine, it becomes slightly more difficult for the Europeans to stay out of the Taiwan conflict.

 

[Agema]

In a sense the Ukraine war made it harder to abandon Taiwan. After the US put so much effort into helping Ukraine, it becomes slightly more difficult for the Europeans to stay out of the Taiwan conflict.

Europe can play no meaningful (military) role in Taiwan, because no European nations have any means to usefully militarily contribute.

They might help with sanctions and stuff, supplies, etc. Although China is very hard to sanction: the Chinese make most of everyone's electronics.

 

[Gergar12]

In my opinion, Ukraine is very lucky as a state, if you live in Ukraine you are unlucky, but as a state it's lucky. Ukraine is a middle power with farmland, fossil fuels, and leftover soviet arms factories. It's not a very rich country compared to its neighbors. It just so happened to contain lots of food and fossil fuels(natural gas), and a geopolitically advantageous position for foreign powers like the EU, US, NATO bloc, and the Russians of course. Things could have gone south for them if the US and Russia agreed for Russia to take over Ukraine in exchange for Russia staying neutral with the coming China-US confrontation, and the US could help Russia with its better technology in drilling for its hard-to-get fossil fuels like Exon's Rex Tillerson did. It just so happen that the US wanted to take down most of the former historical Soviet, communist, and communist PAC-aligned countries not under significant western influence like Syria, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea instead of going after just China or fighting climate change.

 

[Gergar12]

Europe can play no meaningful (military) role in Taiwan, because no European nations have any means to usefully militarily contribute.

They might help with sanctions and stuff, supplies, etc. Although China is very hard to sanction: the Chinese make most of everyone's electronics.

They have navy vessels like ocean-going destroyers, and some have small air-craft carriers(UK, Italy, Spain, and France). Hell even sanctions, and agreeing to go after Chinese merchant vessels could cripple Chinese economic power.

And Chinese factories could become factories in Mexico, South Korea(SK), India, and Vietnam.

 

[Satinavian]

They might help with sanctions and stuff, supplies, etc. Although China is very hard to sanction: the Chinese make most of everyone's electronics.

Germany exported stuff worth more than 120 billion dollars to China in 2021. Of this was

Vehicles other than railway, tramway	$31.54B	2021
Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers	$24.71B	2021
Electrical, electronic equipment	$21.12B	2021
Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus	$11.12B	2021
Pharmaceutical products	$5.51B	2021

To put that in context : China has been the biggest trading partner for Germany for 5 years now, with roughly similar import/export values and most of what Germany exports there is technical stuff.

The Chinese economy is still quite dependend on imports for many components and a lot of its machinery. China tried to get more independent a couple years ago accompanied with boastful party declarations and wanted to be able to manifacture most cruicial components itself, but trade data shows that this really didn't work out.

European sanctions would harm China a lot. But they also would harm Europe a lot. The Chinese market is far more important than the Russian one was.

Things could have gone south for them if the US and Russia agreed for Russia to take over Ukraine in exchange for Russia staying neutral with the coming China-US confrontation, and the US could help Russia with its better technology in drilling for its hard-to-get fossil fuels like Exon's Rex Tillerson did.

If that had happened, Europe, especcially eastern Europe had felt betrayed, the NATO had dissolved and Europe would equally stay out of the US-China confrontation, would not even apply or support sanctions and might even take Chinas side to spite the US. I mean, if the US can make a deal with Russia, hat is to stop Europe from making a similar deal with China ?

 

[Agema]

They have navy vessels like ocean-going destroyers, and some have small air-craft carriers(UK, Italy, Spain, and France). Hell even sanctions, and agreeing to go after Chinese merchant vessels could cripple Chinese economic power.

Mm. I don't think the combat value of those naval vessels is particularly high in the greater scheme of things. Intercepting Chinese merchant shipping is probably the most useful thing they could do.

And Chinese factories could become factories in Mexico, South Korea(SK), India, and Vietnam.

That's tricky. If those factories are moved out of China, it makes war more likely by reducing trade interdependence. Otherwise, the West and China would have to accept an almighty economic hit if they chose war.

 

[Silvanus]

Mm. I don't think the combat value of those naval vessels is particularly high in the greater scheme of things. Intercepting Chinese merchant shipping is probably the most useful thing they could do.

It would also be direct involvement on a scale they've been entirely unwilling to commit for Ukraine, so there's really very little possibility over Taiwan.

 

[Silvanus]

‘Absolute evil’: inside the Russian prison camp where dozens of Ukrainians burned to death

Entrepreneur Anna Vorosheva accuses Moscow of murder after spending 100 days in the Olenivka detention centre

www.theguardian.com

Anna Vorosheva is a former inmate of Olenivka, a Russian prison camp near Donetsk. She was apprehended when delivering relief supplies to Mariupol and incarcerated on the grounds of "terrorism" for 100 days. She's now safely back in France.

Her account of the treatment by the Russians is one of torture, beatings, no running water or electricity, no sanitary products for women, including a pregnant inmate. The Red Cross visited to inspect conditions in May, and prisoners were moved temporarily to a cleaner show room, and told not to speak to the investigators. The Red Cross provided supplies but they didn't make it to the inmates.

Olenivka was also the destination of 2,000 of the defenders of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, members of the Azov Battalion. When the surrender was negotiated, Russia gave assurances to the UN and ICRC that they would be treated as POWs. However, we now know they were targeted by an explosion inside the Prison in late July, which telephone intercepts suggest was carried out by the neo-Nazi mercenary Wagner Group alongside the Russian spy agency FSB. Since this, the Red Cross has been denied the chance to return.

 

[Seanchaidh]

There's been no organic or democratic expression of separatism for you to assume this, of course.

None that you care to recognize, you mean.

 

[Hades]

None that you care to recognize, you mean.

I mean being ruled by a military junta which kills and tortures people they don't like, and the citizens all having guns pointed at them makes it inherently hard to recognize any ''democratic'' expression as valid. Because its an area under brutal military occupation. Any expression not to the invaders liking is going to get you murdered.

Theoretically there might be people or even a majority of people in the Donbas who support treason, but its not up to them. Its up the Russian army and the military junta they installed there. The Donbas wasn't asked, they were taken over at which point there was no other option but to ''support'' the invaders.

 

[Silvanus]

None that you care to recognize, you mean.

None that haven't been carried out under military occupation by an insurgent paramilitary and disguised foreign troops.

 

[Agema]

None that you care to recognize, you mean.

The referenda run by the military juntas of Donetsk and Luhansk were run by repressive regimes backed by a nation whose own elections manifestly don't meet adequate democratic norms, and carried out farcically and fraudulently. You embarrass your own appeals to democracy by recognising them.

Although bluntly, throughout this whole mess you've effectively been telling us you don't believe in democracy. You'll happily throw your hat in with any two-bit tyrant as long as he opposes Western capitalism, up to and including validating ethnic cleansing to make the numbers work out.

 

[Silvanus]

Footage appears to show fresh atrocity against Ukrainian PoW

Russians accused of barbaric behaviour apparently seen in videos and photos from captured city of Popasna

www.theguardian.com

The head and hands of a Ukrainian POW have been photographed stuck on poles in a garden in the occupied city of Popasna.

 

[Kwak]

 

[Kwak]

(slightly) Better details on that...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/08/russians-threaten-to-blow-up-nuclear-power-plant-in-case-of-ukrainian-advances/

“As you know, we have planted mines in all the important facilities of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. And we do not hide this from the enemy. We warned them. The enemy knows that the plant will be either Russian – or no one’s. We are ready for the consequences of this step. And you, warriors-liberators should understand that there is no other option. And in case of receiving the most severe order, we must fulfill it with honor!” Vasilyev is said to have stated, addressing his statement to the Russian occupiers whom Russian propaganda calls liberators.

We could not confirm whether the statement indeed belongs to Vasilyev or find its original place of publication.

Energoatom said in April that Valeriy Vasilyev became in charge of the Russian troops in Energodar in late March, and that the occupiers started forcefully dispersing peaceful protests in support of Ukraine under his command.


Russia has not officially reacted to Energoatom’s statement. Russia’s Ministry of Defense names Igor Kirillov as the head of Russia’s radiation, chemical, and biological forces, not Valeriy Vasilyev. This is why Russian Telegram channels say Energoatom’s statement is fake.

The representative of the press service of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense Andriy Yusov reported that the department had confirmed information about Russian troops mining the ZNPP power units, Energoatom said.

 

[Agema]

(slightly) Better details on that...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/08/russians-threaten-to-blow-up-nuclear-power-plant-in-case-of-ukrainian-advances/

If true that they mined it and setting off those explosives caused a nuclear disaster, whilst that's technically not dropping a nuke, I fail to see why it should be treated any differently from doing so.

 

[Silvanus]

People have probably already heard about the Ukrainian strike on Russia's Saky airbase in occupied Crimea.

There's a pretty incredible before-and-after satellite photographic slider here;

Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea airbase attack, satellite images show

Multiple aircraft at Saky base in Crimea blown up, with the new evidence suggesting possibility of targeted attack

www.theguardian.com

Satellite images were taken 4 hours before the attack, and then the next day. They confirm 8 Russian aircraft were destroyed in the strike. This vitally shows that Ukraine is able to utilise long-range missile artillery, and is able to bypass Russian air defence.