Ukraine

meiam

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But they of course have to be careful, because if Western society sustains severe damage or turns towards an extreme stance of nationalism that closes off international markets, China will take an enormous hit to their pocketbook.
I think their world view is that the current democratic rule base order is an aberration and that if the west collapse it'll naturally return to nationalist autocratic states that will miraculously still stay wealthy but too inept to produce anything themselves and will keep buying from China, or at least trade natural resource for stuff. Simply put, it would rather live in a world filed with weak states like Russia, all jostlike with each others over petty territorial dispute and which can't possibly challenge China.
 
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RhombusHatesYou

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I think their world view is that the current democratic rule base order is an aberration and that if the west collapse it'll naturally return to nationalist autocratic states that will miraculously still stay wealthy but too inept to produce anything themselves and will keep buying from China, or at least trade natural resource for stuff.
What the CCP wants is an old school, Cold War style Sphere of Influence (totally not a hegemony, trust us) where they can do whatever they want and everyone just turns a blind eye.
 

Bedinsis

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Today on twitter I saw that Russian ally in the war Belarus has apparently outlawed inflation. This made me curious: how are things going in Belarus? Some articles later I wonder if Lukashenko has figured that Russia is gonna lose the war:



EDIT: I should mention that both these articles are several months old, so nobody is left with an impression that this is a recent development.
Since I've brought up the subject of Belarus, and I saw a video on it today I thought I should share:

The people of Belarus are apparently very much against the idea of joining the war actively.
 

Terminal Blue

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What the CCP wants is an old school, Cold War style Sphere of Influence (totally not a hegemony, trust us) where they can do whatever they want and everyone just turns a blind eye.
In other words, what the CCP wants is to replace the US in global geopolitics, or at the very least to rule alongside the US in a system that allows both their spheres of influence.

And they will, at least for a few decades. I think at this point that is inevitable.

Utimately, however, I don't think it's sustainable. India has serious problems, but is not that far behind China. Brazil, if it sorts out its weird national trauma and horrendous inequality, is a serious candidate for economic power. The EU is a mess right now but enthusiasm for the project within the core EU countries remains high and represents a huge concentration of economic power. If anything, the world is trending away from small developing countries that are easy to bully, and I think long term we will see more countries adopting transnational economic unions or third neighbor strategies as a means of countering the influence of economic superpowers.
 

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Since I've brought up the subject of Belarus, and I saw a video on it today I thought I should share:

The people of Belarus are apparently very much against the idea of joining the war actively.
One has to wonder if Belarus has the same problems with it's military as Russia does, in which case the best case they can hope for is move troops to the border and look menacingly at the Ukrainians while occasionally shaking their fists, while occasionally glancing over at Russia going "See, we're doing our part!"

Or maybe I should rephrase that. Does Belarus have a military perfectly suited for national defense but sufficiently less able for an offensive into hostile territory? Because that's pretty much what Russia has at this point, if we're being charitable.
 

Bedinsis

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One has to wonder if Belarus has the same problems with it's military as Russia does, in which case the best case they can hope for is move troops to the border and look menacingly at the Ukrainians while occasionally shaking their fists, while occasionally glancing over at Russia going "See, we're doing our part!"
You tell me, you seem to know military stuff.

Although one of the comments on that video (as we all know, youtube comment sections represent vast amounts of wisdom without anything questionable whatsoever) claimed that even the threat of Belarus potentially attacking is enough to force Ukraine to redistribute troops to protect the north and the capital, so in that scenario Russia would go "Yeah, you ARE doing your part, good on you.".
 
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Dalisclock

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I recently started listening to Perun and while he's basically an armchair analyst, he does admit he's going off the information he has not having access to military intelligence.

This one in particular I found interesting.
 

Dalisclock

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You tell me, you seem to know military stuff.

Although one of the comments on that video (as we all know, youtube comment sections represent vast amounts of wisdom without anything questionable whatsoever) claimed that even the threat of Belarus potentially attacking is enough to force Ukraine to redistribute troops to protect the north and the capital, so in that scenario Russia would go "Yeah, you ARE doing your part, good on you.".
I haven't had the chance to watch it and I don't really know the math invovled. Sure, it could force a redistribution of forces, though I imagine Ukraine already has Units keeping an eye on the belarusian border. Another factor to consider is that Ukraine blew all the bridges between the two countries early on to bottleneck russian supply lines and I have no idea if any of them have been rebuilt at this point.

If Belarusian logistics and corruption are anywhere near the level of their buddy Russia, attempting any kind of notable attack on Ukraine would be a fools errand, especially considering Ukraine is in a much better position now then it has been at any point in the last 7 months. Opening a 2nd front might have made an much bigger impact back in the spring, but at this point Ukraine has western tech to play with and a battle hardened force. Not to mention Ukraines populace has been galvanized.

Belarus taking heavy losses during an incursion is not gonna help Belarus.

And of course there's the possible escalation factor, where NATO decides maybe to move troops to the border of Belarus or give Ukraine F16s in response. I gurentee that polish tanks sitting at the border would get Belaruses attention and force them to keep forces on that border
 
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meiam

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I don't see Belarus entering the fight helping Ukraine in any way, but I don't think it'll help Russia much either, Russia already invaded trough Belarus, so the border must already be pretty well watched.

I do see it potentially helping Belarus if it gives them an occasion to overthrow the current leadership, he's only still around because Putin intervene last time there was mass demonstration, Putin is in no situation to help this time around if there's another round of mass demonstration.

I am reminded of a high level war game that was done a bit before the war started, iirc the scenario had Russia push Belarus to enter the war and eventually Russia use low yield nuke on the battlefield, the west side in the game then responded by nuking Belarus as a warning to Putin not to go further.
 

Hades

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The people of Belarus are apparently very much against the idea of joining the war actively.
So should their president since he's only clinging to power by the grace of the armed forces. Meaning he'd be kinda screwed if those forces leave the country to go die in Ukraine.
 

Terminal Blue

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I recently started listening to Perun and while he's basically an armchair analyst, he does admit he's going off the information he has not having access to military intelligence.
As someone who is incredibly skeptical of social media/youtube as a platform for armchair military analysis, that channel has won me over to a large extent. The defence economic stuff is particularly good because that's clearly an area of expertise (and one where everyone is an armchair analyst, so being an armchair analyst doesn't matter).

That video is also one a lot of people need to see though. Both for the whole impending nuclear war thing being very silly and because, to the extent there is a realistic chance of nuclear escalation, the clearly optimal response is to make nuclear escalation as ineffective and punishing as possible.

I was about to post this one anyway, since Belarus came up.

 

Dalisclock

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As someone who is incredibly skeptical of social media/youtube as a platform for armchair military analysis, that channel has won me over to a large extent. The defence economic stuff is particularly good because that's clearly an area of expertise (and one where everyone is an armchair analyst, so being an armchair analyst doesn't matter).

That video is also one a lot of people need to see though. Both for the whole impending nuclear war thing being very silly and because, to the extent there is a realistic chance of nuclear escalation, the clearly optimal response is to make nuclear escalation as ineffective and punishing as possible.

I was about to post this one anyway, since Belarus came up.

The one about the Mobilization is pretty interesting, informative and kinda horrifying in a way. Particularly the bits about the Russian Army stripping their training units to reinforce the front, which means the conscripts coming in aren't really getting any training worth a damn. And sure, if you want to give a conscript a rifle and stick them on the front line to fill in gaps, I guess that's all you need but it's not going to do much to help you in an offense(and if Russia keeps losing ground at the rate they are, an offensive will need to happen at some point to make up for it). You also increase the risk those conscripts are just gonna break and run the moment any real pressure has been applied because they aren't being trained, just acting as warm bodies to satisfying someone's accounting sheet of "troops available".

And apparently there's evidence the Russians have been stripping troops from their strategic rocket forces for the same reason. Not the misslers, but the guys who job it is to keep the nukes and silos secure. Think about that for a moment and then try not to shudder.
 

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Honestly the only thing I can think of for why Belarus would be dumb enough to join the war is not actually joining the war but being a distraction. Not invading but sitting on the border. Because if he was dumb enough to actually invade it would be Peak Mussolini.
 

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He's been asking for this? Ukraine has been fighting a defensive war against an invasion and imperial land-grab. It's a complete clownshow how imperialism apologists consider the only valid move to just give the imperialists everything they claim as their own, and any defensive act is "escalation". Ukraine did not choose to be invaded. Russia chose to invade. Ukraine then chose to act in defence of its territory against the invader. How dare they!
Which legislative body withdrew Ukraine from the ICCPR, ECHR, and ESC, thereby relieving itself of human rights obligations to civilians in the Donbas region? Was it the Russian Duma, or the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

Who's blocking and (allegedly) raiding humanitarian aid shipments...from Ukraine? Is it Russian paramilitaries, or is it Ukrainian paramilitaries? Eight years' worth of alleged human rights abuses in Donbas as documented by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the UN Human Rights Council? Who's been operating black sites in Donbas, where alleged (and in some cases, proven) instances of mass torture, sexual abuse, and rape have occurred?

That's both sides, by the way. Which is why I keep referring to this situation as cyclical violence. One in which the West has no business, because...

As if the other power here isn't the one that unilaterally has chosen to invade, sponsor an insurgency, sneak disguised troops over the border for 6 years, invade again, extra-judicially slaughter civilians in the streets, and then annex masses of territory.
Psst: that was the US. The CIA by the way of its front organization NED, has been up to this shit since Euromaidan, and more recently directly. We're the ones training, funding, and arming these goddamn Ukrainian Nazis who have also (keyword also) been running around Donbas acting like rabid animals for the better part of a decade ethnically cleansing the area of Russians, and we've been doing it the whole-ass time.

None of which you give a single, solitary shit about: its core to the imperialist mindset that some powers are allowed to do whatever they want. But any effort to stop them doing that? Beyond the pale!
And by "some" in your case, you mean the US and NATO. This isn't about Ukrainian independence for anyone, you can fuck right off with that facade of righteous indignation. This is about whose proxy buffer-state Ukraine will be, US or Russia...that is once the ethnic cleansing is over. And make no mistake, at this point there will be ethnic cleansing; the only question is, will that ethnic cleansing be with the full backing and support of Russia, or the US?

Your problem is that you've become too emotionally-invested in the outcome of this, for it to be anything but the great moral conflict of our time. There must be a "bad guy" and there must be a "good guy" for you. When the reality is, this is a proxy war of, by, and for genocidal lunatics inhabiting political extremes any sensible human on Earth should conclude must be eradicated at all costs, and because this is being waged by murderous psychopaths, it's turned into a cycle of ethnic revenge. That doesn't fit in your worldview, ergo you must ignore and push back against any argument or evidence that fails to confirm your biases, lest you ask yourself the uncomfortable question of who you're really supporting.

I still say withdraw multilaterally, evacuate what few noncombatants are left, and let the genocidal madmen have their stupid fucking Nazi fight over a swath of land nobody actually gives a shit about. Nuke the ones left standing, because fuck 'em, they're Nazis.

Ignoring all the other nonsense, this is very wrong as well.

It was extensively researched how much indiscriminate bombing of towns and cities had helped and the answer was "not very much at all". It only brings the bombed population together and stokes their anger. It does not make them more likely to surrender or seek peace. Even the damage to wartime industry hardly matches the ressources put into the bombing.
No, that's quite how total war works. I never said it was effective, I just pointed it out for what it is.

Is it how "special military operations" that totally aren't wars work though?
Ask the Koreans, Laotians, and Cambodians.

Oh, so wait, the first time Russia attacked civilians this became "total war"? Because that was way before the bridge attack. Thank you for justifying Ukraine's actions!
So we're just ignoring the last eight years and pretending Russia just said "fuck it, let's go" one fine morning last February?
 
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Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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Okay this must be taken with a huge grain of salt because we only have the Minister of Defence of Ukraine twit (Twitter apparently is the future of diplomacy, and this makes me sad) to go by but he stated that Russia only has 609 missiles left.

if this is true wow
 

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Ooh, this should be good. Do please tell the class what Ukraine did to deserve having civilian targets bombed?
Deserve has nothing to do with it, but they are at war. That is what happens. Now my sleep hazed brain is an unreliable place at the best of times but my recollection of the last actual war between peers involved the Luftwaffe turning a great deal of London into rubble, and the RAF returning the compliment with Berlin. To say nothing of what was done to Dresden.
 
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Gergar12

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Okay this must be taken with a huge grain of salt because we only have the Minister of Defence of Ukraine twit (Twitter apparently is the future of diplomacy, and this makes me sad) to go by but he stated that Russia only has 609 missiles left.

if this is true wow
What the hell is going on with anti-western militaries not stockpiling precision-guided-munitions(PGMs), Russia doesn't have them, and Iran doesn't have them in large numbers but does have ballistic missiles and ATGMs, I don't know why they always love defensive weapons. Even China doesn't have that many PGMs.

You can't win a modern ground war without PGMS unless you want your planes shot down, your drones falling out of the sky, and your helicopters blowing up.

Instead, they rely on costly air-launched ballistic missiles. I get it when China is basically a police state you need another national security army to counter coups and that costs lots of money.
 

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
What the hell is going on with anti-western militaries not stockpiling precision-guided-munitions(PGMs), Russia doesn't have them, and Iran doesn't have them in large numbers but does have ballistic missiles and ATGMs, I don't know why they always love defensive weapons. Even China doesn't have that many PGMs.
I think a lot of the components they need are not only expensive but also made in the west so its kinda difficult to get what they need for them through normal channels. Plus, I really do think that putin thought this would be over in a week, maybe a month tops, they really weren't ready for a prolonged fight that showed how shit their military was.
 
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