*That the Chinese government had any particular awareness of the balloon-- either its existence or where it was
The Chinese government acknowledged it was theirs. This isn't contested by either side, or in fact anybody serious at all.
*That the Chinese government didn't communicate with the US regarding the balloon if it did
OK, so the only alternative here would be... that China informed the US it was on it's way, then the US gave permission to enter airspace, then shot it down, then China objected to the shooting... without ever mentioning in the following public statement that they had permission?
Lol ok.
*That someone at some relevant level of either government is indeed not an idiot
Oh, I'm sure quite a few people involved are idiots. Those involved in sending unannounced aircraft into rival superpowers' airspace; and those pretending that spying is a big no-no that only the enemies do.
I don't think anyone involved is so completely, childishly unaware of their own jobs that they have zero knowledge of airspace law.
*That you yourself have an adequate understanding of "the basics of airspace law" as it applies to weather balloons and other very high floating objects
The illegality of sending aircraft unannounced into another country's airspace is pretty universally recognised.
I haven't expressed certainty of anything. It's probably just a weather balloon because that is what it looks like it is without the priming of western media hysterics/theatrics-- which you at least seem to recognize exist while then going on to be 100% confident (!) in their speculations regarding the facts of the case.
Laughing at the idea that it's not a weather balloon kind of expresses high confidence that it is. Well, unless you just thought of something funny that was unrelated, and then accidentally hit 'reply'-- I mean, that's less far-fetched than a bus-sized aircraft travelling over 7,000 miles unannounced by pure accident.