Ukraine

[Ag3ma]

I came across an interesting idea a while ago, suppose that the Russian leadership recognised the problems they had with the quality of their troops early on in the war and took some units off the line for intensive training, while keeping others fighting until they were ready.

I'm not remotely sure they realised how bad things were until quite a way in, because they lacked competent reporting and command structure. I'm also not sure they had many spare troops - or rather I'm sure they do scattered across their vast terrain, but they have duties and aren't free for relocation and training recruits. And besides they'll all be as resolutely useless as the slurry that were chewed up in Ukraine last year.

I strongly expect that the last few months have been spent trying to train up those newbies from the mobilisation effort. Basic training is about 3-4 months, usually. Surely after a year of fighting, survivors of 2022 should have amassed experience and nous which they can pass on to the new arrivals. Plus they may now have the manpower (and AFV shortage) to not make the same mistake of driving unsupported tanks at everything.

 

[Dalisclock]

I'm not remotely sure they realised how bad things were until quite a way in, because they lacked competent reporting and command structure. I'm also not sure they had many spare troops - or rather I'm sure they do scattered across their vast terrain, but they have duties and aren't free for relocation and training recruits. And besides they'll all be as resolutely useless as the slurry that were chewed up in Ukraine last year.

I strongly expect that the last few months have been spent trying to train up those newbies from the mobilisation effort. Basic training is about 3-4 months, usually. Surely after a year of fighting, survivors of 2022 should have amassed experience and nous which they can pass on to the new arrivals. Plus they may now have the manpower (and AFV shortage) to not make the same mistake of driving unsupported tanks at everything.

I've heard part of the problem is systemic. Russian units are apparently not allowed to take individual initiative at all. You follow the orders you were given regardless of how much actual sense they make. And to compound this is the idea that you do not want to be the one to report failure or else you will be punished. So there's apparently a pervasive problem of only reporting success, which then gets reported back up the chain and since the general got a report from the major who got a report from te captain who got a report from the lietenunt who got a report from the sergeant that yes, the enemy position was destroyed, the general orders more troops in to exploit the sucess. Except if all that information was BS because nobody wants to report they failed, then you have this pattern of sending troops into situations with outright bad intel because FAILURE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED.

I honestly hope it's not that bad, but if it is it would explain a lot of their behavior in this war, including tanks just driving into minefields.

Perun did a video on this explaining it in better detail and assuming his information and conclusions are correct.....Holy fucking shit. OTOH, if the amount of endemic corruption in Russia is nearly as bad as it looks, it's not hard to believe this.


TL: DW. Russia is high on it's own supply and has been for a while now. Apparently the culture encourages this because anyone who tries to tell it like it is rather then what the boss wants to hear either gets fired or worse. This tracks what what I've heard about authoritarian regimes in general where it's all about pleasing the boss and the boss only wants to hear good news.

 

[Hades]

I believe the proper term might be Pyrrhic.

I don't think that's the proper term because Pyrrhic implies victory which is something that has consistently eluded Russia.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Just gonna leave this here for no particular reason.


I'm not sure Dark Comedy does this justice. Is there a term that encompasses both "Funny" and "Horrifying Tragedy"?

While I like Blackadder, it does greatly misrepresent the British leadership. They were forever trying ways to break the deadlock, only so were the Germans, and they weren't able to advance faster than the enemy could retreat and dig in again. Also, quite a few high ranking officers got killed at the front, apparently British officers thought it unwise to show fear in front of the troops and so wouldn't duck, which wasn't a good idea in retrospect.

I'm not remotely sure they realised how bad things were until quite a way in, because they lacked competent reporting and command structure. I'm also not sure they had many spare troops - or rather I'm sure they do scattered across their vast terrain, but they have duties and aren't free for relocation and training recruits. And besides they'll all be as resolutely useless as the slurry that were chewed up in Ukraine last year.

Quite possibly, I've no idea really.

I strongly expect that the last few months have been spent trying to train up those newbies from the mobilisation effort. Basic training is about 3-4 months, usually. Surely after a year of fighting, survivors of 2022 should have amassed experience and nous which they can pass on to the new arrivals.

Ah, I'm reminded of the US individual replacement program during WW2. Apparently there was an idea at some point that replacements for casualties would be sent to units that had been pulled off the line temporarily, to give them time to settle in. But what happened is that replacements were sent straight to bolster units that were fighting, and got killed off in massive numbers. The truism was that veterans wouldn't learn the names of the new soldiers because they'd not last a day.

I could very well see the same thing happening with the Russians.

 

[Ag3ma]

I've heard part of the problem is systemic. Russian units are apparently not allowed to take individual initiative at all. You follow the orders you were given regardless of how much actual sense they make. And to compound this is the idea that you do not want to be the one to report failure or else you will be punished. So there's apparently a pervasive problem of only reporting success, which then gets reported back up the chain and since the general got a report from the major who got a report from te captain who got a report from the lietenunt who got a report from the sergeant that yes, the enemy position was destroyed, the general orders more troops in to exploit the sucess. Except if all that information was BS because nobody wants to report they failed, then you have this pattern of sending troops into situations with outright bad intel because FAILURE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED.

Sure. But after a year of failure, I think it's very possible some of that is likely to be either fixed, or in the process of being fixed. I mean, in mid-1941, the Soviets were supremely awful. By end 1942, they'd won arguably the decisive victory of the European front in WW2.

 

[Dalisclock]

Sure. But after a year of failure, I think it's very possible some of that is likely to be either fixed, or in the process of being fixed. I mean, in mid-1941, the Soviets were supremely awful. By end 1942, they'd won arguably the decisive victory of the European front in WW2.

Well, the question is, if it is a whole culture of lying to make yourself look better and graft to either get by or enrich themselves, how do you get rid of that? Especially when Putin and his Oligarch buddies who run the country benefit from this culture?

Sure, you can do some purges, but if the rotten culture remains, you're not really changing anything, just making some examples of people as a show of "progress". To my knowledge, and I'm not an expert by any means, Stalin's purges weren't about clearing out corruption but rather removing pretty much anyone he didn't like and consolidating his control over the party, using political orthodoxy as an excuse.

 

[Ag3ma]

Well, the question is, if it is a whole culture of lying to make yourself look better and graft to either get by or enrich themselves, how do you get rid of that? Especially when Putin and his Oligarch buddies who run the country benefit from this culture?

Sure, you can do some purges, but if the rotten culture remains, you're not really changing anyway, just making some examples of people as a show of "progress". To my knowledge, and I'm not an expert by any means, Stalin's purges weren't about clearing out corruption but rather removing pretty much anyone he didn't like and consolidating his control over the party, using political orthodoxy as an excuse.

Mm. Clearly, Putin has realised by now that his military is rubbish, and Putin's future depends on Russia's military performingly significantly less rubbishly. So he has a powerful motivation to fix things. And it's easy enough to make the lower orders obey where the elites don't have to.

It probably is the work of years to complete a root and branch reform, but it might only be months to make enough progress to significantly improve combat effectiveness. Start hammering the officers who make unrealistic claims and promises, and not the ones honestly reporting that their unit is undermanned, undertrained, and got trounced. The smart officers will quickly realise where their promotions lie.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Well, the question is, if it is a whole culture of lying to make yourself look better and graft to either get by or enrich themselves, how do you get rid of that? Especially when Putin and his Oligarch buddies who run the country benefit from this culture?

Sure, you can do some purges, but if the rotten culture remains, you're not really changing anything, just making some examples of people as a show of "progress". To my knowledge, and I'm not an expert by any means, Stalin's purges weren't about clearing out corruption but rather removing pretty much anyone he didn't like and consolidating his control over the party, using political orthodoxy as an excuse.

Well, from my understanding (also not an expert), the purges were to get rid of anything who was a threat to him. As there's an overlap between "commander military officer" and "threat", you can see why people talk about how good Finland did in the Winter War against them.

But, (also not an expert), I'm led to believe the situation was similar in the late Cold War, and under the Tzarist regime before the Soviets took over, that is, the lying to make yourself look better stuff. Don't know about the early Soviet era, though, but it looks like the answer to how you get rid of that might be "you don't".

 

[Dalisclock]

Mm. Clearly, Putin has realised by now that his military is rubbish, and Putin's future depends on Russia's military performingly significantly less rubbishly. So he has a powerful motivation to fix things. And it's easy enough to make the lower orders obey where the elites don't have to.

It probably is the work of years to complete a root and branch reform, but it might only be months to make enough progress to significantly improve combat effectiveness. Start hammering the officers who make unrealistic claims and promises, and not the ones honestly reporting that their unit is undermanned, undertrained, and got trounced. The smart officers will quickly realise where their promotions lie.

Ideally. sure. You'd have to ensure you had people out there whose first job was "Making sure the paperwork and the truth" are somewhat in line with each other. Making sure people who report failure aren't punished if they did their duty. Ideally having teams doing surprise inspections of weapons depots making sure every fucking shell, tank and bullet are visually accounted for and anyone who tried to hide discpencies would be arrested. Look at officers whose spending vastly exceeds their salary and where that extra money is coming from. That's what a smart, moral person would do.

The question is: Would Putin even try? I have no fucking clue honestly. I'm inclined to think he'll turn to one of his his equally corrupt advisors and say "Fix this" and in a month, that advisor will come back with a bunch of BS reports he had someone type up for him saying that they found some corruption, made some arrests and everything is better now. Meanwhile, the money allocated to this task went to fund the advisor a dacha for his mistress.

I know what I would do, but I also haven't been running a country into the ground for the last few decades by using it as a massive pump and dump scheme so my opinion doesn't matter here. Let's be real, the state of Russia's army right now is a result of a good 20-30 years of neglect and corruption. Putin presided over most if not all of that and by god he didn't fucking care until now, it seems, as long as he got to be rich and powerful. It's hard to imagine he's suddenly gonna do the right thing for the country now as opposed to "Fuck'em, I got mine" attitude he's shown thus far. Especially when nobody in the country who matters is gonna call you on it, less they "Fall out a window".

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

I came across an interesting idea a while ago, suppose that the Russian leadership recognised the problems they had with the quality of their troops early on in the war and took some units off the line for intensive training, while keeping others fighting until they were ready. In theory, we could see a suddenly influx of competent Russian forces at an time now.

No idea if this is something they may have done, though.

I sincerely doubt it would help any appreciable amount at this point, because those better-trained troops now have less good-quality equipment at their disposal, while their enemy has only been getting upgrades this whole while and have shifted the momentum of battle strongly in their favor. Seriously, it would've had to have been entire battalions pulled away for this training to make a real difference.

 

[Ag3ma]

Ideally. sure. You'd have to ensure you had people out there whose first job was "Making sure the paperwork and the truth" are somewhat in line with each other. Making sure people who report failure aren't punished if they did their duty. Ideally having teams doing surprise inspections of weapons depots making sure every fucking shell, tank and bullet are visually accounted for and anyone who tried to hide discpencies would be arrested. Look at officers whose spending vastly exceeds their salary and where that extra money is coming from. That's what a smart, moral person would do.

The question is: Would Putin even try? I have no fucking clue honestly. I'm inclined to think he'll turn to one of his his equally corrupt advisors and say "Fix this" and in a month, that advisor will come back with a bunch of BS reports he had someone type up for him saying that they found some corruption, made some arrests and everything is better now. Meanwhile, the money allocated to this task went to fund the advisor a dacha for his mistress.

I know what I would do, but I also haven't been running a country into the ground for the last few decades by using it as a massive pump and dump scheme so my opinion doesn't matter here. Let's be real, the state of Russia's army right now is a result of a good 20-30 years of neglect and corruption. Putin presided over most if not all of that and by god he didn't fucking care until now, it seems, as long as he got to be rich and powerful. It's hard to imagine he's suddenly gonna do the right thing for the country now as opposed to "Fuck'em, I got mine" attitude he's shown thus far. Especially when nobody in the country who matters is gonna call you on it, less they "Fall out a window".

I think you make a good point. The more embedded corruption is, the harder it is to weed out. One might say many things about Stalin, but I suspect the Soviet regime in his time may have been quite light on the sort of institutionalised corruption that modern Russia has. Thus Stalin just needed to find halfway competent officers and put them in the right places instead of murdering them. Putin's Russia might be short on uncorrupt officers to put anywhere at all.

 

[Kwak]

I wonder what they did?

Top Russian Military Official Marina Yankina Dead After Fall From 16th Floor

Marina Yankina handled cash flows for the Western Military District.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

Okay, powerful Russians being gravitationally challenged is hilarious and all, but it really speaks to a lack of imagination. C'mon, have a car drive into river or something, just to spice it up

 

[Thaluikhain]

Okay, powerful Russians being gravitationally challenged is hilarious and all, but it really speaks to a lack of imagination. C'mon, have a car drive into river or something, just to spice it up

Eh, I think if you vary the accidents then someone of them might look like accidents. If they all die the same way, it's more obviously not a coincidence, even if you can pretend it is.

 

[Absent]

Okay, powerful Russians being gravitationally challenged is hilarious and all, but it really speaks to a lack of imagination. C'mon, have a car drive into river or something, just to spice it up

For some reason they're a bit reluctant to use novitchok within the kremlin's walls.

 

[RhombusHatesYou]

For some reason they're a bit reluctant to use novitchok within the kremlin's walls.

Leaves a musty odor.

 

[Ag3ma]

I wonder what they did?

Top Russian Military Official Marina Yankina Dead After Fall From 16th Floor

Marina Yankina handled cash flows for the Western Military District.

www.thedailybeast.com

I think it's easy to assume that they are being disposed of by the Kremlin. However I would suggest at least some may be being bumped off by other corrupt officials and criminal groups for their own benefit and advancement, because Russia is a place where organised crime and government are thoroughly intermingled, or even in some cases the same thing.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Actually, couldn't that have been done by pro-Ukranian or anti-war forces, in an attack on a legitimate military target, rather than an internal assassination?

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Actually, couldn't that have been done by pro-Ukranian or anti-war forces, in an attack on a legitimate military target, rather than an internal assassination?

I mean, it's possible, but it's also "possible" that Spider-Man was involved.

 

[RhombusHatesYou]

I mean, it's possible, but it's also "possible" that Spider-Man was involved.

It's the fucken glaziers' union.