Ukraine

ralfy

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Apparently I'm at my "free article limit", though I can't remember reading much stuff on there before.

Summary?
The U.S. and EU are facing a multipolar world as the global economy is dominated by BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and dozens of emerging markets.
 
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ralfy

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I'm wondering if Russia has forgotten how quickly its non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany fell through the moment a former Austrian corporal found it expedient. China may not be as overtly racist and nationalistic, but if Putin thinks that anyone in Beijing regards Russians as equals, then he's been out in the sun on his horse for way too long.
FWIW, U.S. corporations were also dealing with the Nazis, and the Russians were the ones who made incredible sacrifices to defeat the Nazis.

About racism and nationalism, I think that applies to all countries. In light of the past, one can use this as an example:


and for the present, probably something like this:


but I think China is more interested in trade deals, in contrast to U.S. neoconservatism and neoliberalism.
 

Worgen

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Whatever, just wash your hands.
China has not yet gained any lasting power over Russia. The whole situation only lasts as long as Russia is still cut off from everyone else. If the war is over and Putin gone it might look very different.

To make Russia into a proper vassal state, China would need to engage and invest far more. China has no direct control over the Russian economy and not enough connections to the Russian elites.
But changing that would be costly and risky and Putin would fight it.
Not to mention that while it can look like China and Russia are buddy buddy, they are really in fierce competition with each other in a lot of ways.
 

Ag3ma

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China has not yet gained any lasting power over Russia. The whole situation only lasts as long as Russia is still cut off from everyone else. If the war is over and Putin gone it might look very different.
China has ten times the population and economy of Russia, and its prospects are vastly better. By the time Putin is gone, Russia will be in hock to China to an eye-watering degree that would take a successor decades to unpick, and that's even if it's worth their bother trying. It can forget trying to move towards the West because Putin has propagandised that possibility out for at least a generation.

Russia has nowhere to go except to be China's pet, unless perhaps it can leverage its ties with India, given India will a major opponent of China's influence.
 

RhombusHatesYou

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I'm wondering if Russia has forgotten how quickly its non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany fell through the moment a former Austrian corporal found it expedient.

They both planned to turn on the other as soon as they found it convenient... just that the little corporal found it convenient before the failed priest did.
 
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Thaluikhain

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They both planned to turn on the other as soon as they found it convenient... just that the little corporal found it convenient before the failed priest did.
I'm led to believe that during the Cold War, the Soviets were concerned about neutral or even allied countries becoming threats after the dust settled after WW3, so lots of places would have been targeted. Even minor powers, who would suddenly become major ones after the balance of power got shuffled.
 
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RhombusHatesYou

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I'm led to believe that during the Cold War, the Soviets were concerned about neutral or even allied countries becoming threats after the dust settled after WW3, so lots of places would have been targeted. Even minor powers, who would suddenly become major ones after the balance of power got shuffled.
Dunno about that but it wouldn't surprise me.
 
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Silvanus

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Russian ultra-nationalist blogger Vladlen Tatarsky has been killed by a bomb hidden inside a gift figurine given to him at a small ceremony at a St. Petersburg restaurant owned by the neo-Nazi PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Tatarsky was one of the attendees at the invasion announcement ceremony last year, during which he came out with this gem:

Vladlen Tatarsky said:
We’ll conquer everyone, we’ll kill everyone, we’ll loot whoever we need to, and everything will be just as we like it.
Recently he had become vociferously critical of the Russian military leadership for its failures in Ukraine, and called for a tribunal.
 

CM156

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Russian ultra-nationalist blogger Vladlen Tatarsky has been killed by a bomb hidden inside a gift figurine given to him at a small ceremony at a St. Petersburg restaurant owned by the neo-Nazi PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin.
What figurine doing?
 

Silvanus

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If it pushes the US to transition away from its ruinous addiction to oil, all to the good.

If it leads to the US just allowing its domestic suppliers to pointlessly hike prices, to protect their margins, not so much.
 

meiam

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It's interesting that its specifically Wagner who make the claim. There's been a lot of speculation about all the various russian oligarch and regional leader getting they're own PMC/militia and what that could mean if Russia started to disintegrate into a bunch of pseudo state. Unrelated, how long can nuclear weapon remain workable without serious maintenance? *nervous look*
 

thestor

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Russian ultra-nationalist blogger Vladlen Tatarsky has been killed by a bomb hidden inside a gift figurine given to him at a small ceremony at a St. Petersburg restaurant owned by the neo-Nazi PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Tatarsky was one of the attendees at the invasion announcement ceremony last year, during which he came out with this gem:

Vladlen Tatarsky said:
We’ll conquer everyone, we’ll kill everyone, we’ll loot whoever we need to, and everything will be just as we like it.
The woman who gave him the exploding statue was either a clueless patsy or handed knowingly handed him his death with a smile.

Either way, she did nothing wrong.
 

Ag3ma

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It's interesting that its specifically Wagner who make the claim.
Certainly. Prigozhin has been criticising the Russian high command. The high command has therefore sent Wagner into a meat-grinder battle to teach its owner a lesson and make him less cocky. The continuing failure of Wagner to achieve much on the battlefield embarrasses and rebukes Prigozhin by showing Wagner can't do any better than the Russian army. So now it is Prigozhin embarrassed and frustrated, trying to raise public enthusiasm for every building his outfit manages to grind control over.

There's been a lot of speculation about all the various russian oligarch and regional leader getting they're own PMC/militia and what that could mean if Russia started to disintegrate into a bunch of pseudo state.
I think this is about long-term war, where Russia plans to send a lot of people out to die. Mercenaries serve two functions: they keep deaths off the Russian military's books, and also make it less complicated to bring in foreign troops (who may not be desired in the Russian army proper). After that, they just want to spread over several PMCs so there's no private army individually capable of threatening the security of the state.

Personally, I think there are a lot of arseholes like Prigozhin who fancy themselves great leaders with macho, militaristic fantasies. Of course these guys are going to love private armies. It feels almost like going back to the feudal levy concept, where nobles, city councils and so on would raise regiments for national service (which sort of survived in adapted form to the 18th / early 19th century).
 

Dalisclock

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Finland is a now a NATO country.

On the lighter side of the news, Russia is mad and is promising to do something. Something really bad. Just you wait. You'll be really sorry. Something Something Red Lines.