Ukraine

[The Rogue Wolf]

Took em longer than expected. The dude weren't subtle or clever with it lol.

Air National Guardsman suspected of leaking intel to be arrested Thursday

An Air National Guardsman suspected of leaking highly classified U.S. documents will be arrested on Thursday in Massachusetts, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

What I want to know is why the fuck some Air Guardsman even had access to that intelligence.

 

[Silvanus]

The Global South, i.e., countries that make up the majority pct of the world population, is now answering back:

Why does so much of the Global South support Russia, not Ukraine?

The war is "not simply seen as good guys in the West versus bad guys in Russia." #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Wait a second, I hadn't actually properly investigated that link until now, but it's extremely obvious that the content doesn't support the headline.

* the article states that the actual position they're recording is that the war should end as soon as possible, even if that means some form of territorial concession by Ukraine. It explicitly says that *does not* translate to support for Russia-- the headline is categorically wrong and highly misleading.

* Globally, support for one's own country sanctioning Russia stands at about 45% against 25% against. That includes the global south.

* only 5 countries voted against the resolution for Russia to immediately withdraw. The vote was overwhelmingly in favour, including in the global south, particularly in South America.

So, the "global south" actually doesn't support Russian invasion and annexation. That's horseshit.

 

[Ag3ma]

What I want to know is why the fuck some Air Guardsman even had access to that intelligence.

Given the last couple of decades, I sometimes feel like that appropriate clearance for access to that sort of stuff is "passed basic training".

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

What I want to know is why the fuck some Air Guardsman even had access to that intelligence.

I don't know anything about ranks or any military stuff others here know - hence not posting in this thread so much - so have no idea what an air guardsman is to people who understand. So the intelligence is definitely above his pay grade then?

 

[thebobmaster]

I don't know anything about ranks or any military stuff others here know - hence not posting in this thread so much - so have no idea what an air guardsman is to people who understand. So the intelligence is definitely above his pay grade then?

Assuming it's similar to Air Force rankings, and using Army rankings in place as those are more universally understood, it would be the equivalent of a private or corporal having access to classified intel.

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

Assuming it's similar to Air Force rankings, and using Army rankings in place as those are more universally understood, it would be the equivalent of a private or corporal having access to classified intel.

Thanks! Am going to sound like a real dummy now, but is private one of the lowest rank or? Which rank does classified intel become accessable? The story did mention the guy said there were no phones or anything allowed too, so am curious what was going on there when he was clearly getting photos and shit for his forum. Is another person involved perhaps? (These are merely rhetorical questions, I wasn't assuming you had all the answers lol! )

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

I mean, phones aren't allowed in, but unless it's a super secure place they tend to rely on the Discipline and Professionalism of Patriotic Soldiers.

You know, the honor system

 

[Thaluikhain]

Thanks! Am going to sound like a real dummy now, but is private one of the lowest rank or? Which rank does classified intel become accessable? The story did mention the guy said there were no phones or anything allowed too, so am curious what was going on there when he was clearly getting photos and shit for his forum. Is another person involved perhaps?

Yep, private is about the lowest you can get, excluding people still in training. And there are different ranks of private, but they are all about as low in the food chain as you can get. Your ordinary rifle carrying soldier in an infantry squad/section, that sort of thing.

As for what rank gets accessed to classified stuff, that varies depending on what the intel is.

As a tangent, nowdays, most general stuff isn't classified, but it used to be that almost everything was classified, destroy this book to prevent its capture. Stuff about field hygiene and how to dig your garbage pits and latrines were classified, but it these days of the internet they don't bother so much.

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

Yep, private is about the lowest you can get, excluding people still in training. And there are different ranks of private, but they are all about as low in the food chain as you can get. Your ordinary rifle carrying soldier in an infantry squad/section, that sort of thing.

As for what rank gets accessed to classified stuff, that varies depending on what the intel is.

As a tangent, nowdays, most general stuff isn't classified, but it used to be that almost everything was classified, destroy this book to prevent its capture. Stuff about field hygiene and how to dig your garbage pits and latrines were classified, but it these days of the internet they don't bother so much.

Huh, yeah that does make this a fair bit more mysterious for sure then. Appreciate the information, cheers! Will be interesting to learn more, if or once further reports are released.

 

[thebobmaster]

Thanks! Am going to sound like a real dummy now, but is private one of the lowest rank or? Which rank does classified intel become accessable? The story did mention the guy said there were no phones or anything allowed too, so am curious what was going on there when he was clearly getting photos and shit for his forum. Is another person involved perhaps? (These are merely rhetorical questions, I wasn't assuming you had all the answers lol! )

Private is the lowest rank, with corporal being the highest "basic" rank. To get beyond that, you'd need to become what's known as an NCO, or non-commissioned officer, and those would be the ones who would be most likely to start getting access to some classified intel, but even then only to a limited degree. As for what rank classified intel woud become accessible...there's no real hard-set rank for that, but generally speaking, NCO's would probably have limited access due to being essentially aides for officers (for example, a second lieutenant would be an aide to a captain, so if the captain had need of classified info, the second lieutenant could well be the one sent to retrieve a copy of it).

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

I don't know anything about ranks or any military stuff others here know - hence not posting in this thread so much - so have no idea what an air guardsman is to people who understand. So the intelligence is definitely above his pay grade then?

The National Guard is a "homestead" reserve of the US military, whose members typically report in for training "one weekend a month, two weeks a year" (the Army National Guard slogan) and whose duties center around homeland defense, disaster response, etc. They're usually called "weekend warriors" by full-time personnel.

 

[XsjadoBlaydette]

Private is the lowest rank, with corporal being the highest "basic" rank. To get beyond that, you'd need to become what's known as an NCO, or non-commissioned officer, and those would be the ones who would be most likely to start getting access to some classified intel, but even then only to a limited degree. As for what rank classified intel woud become accessible...there's no real hard-set rank for that, but generally speaking, NCO's would probably have limited access due to being essentially aides for officers (for example, a second lieutenant would be an aide to a captain, so if the captain had need of classified info, the second lieutenant could well be the one sent to retrieve a copy of it).

The National Guard is a "homestead" reserve of the US military, whose members typically report in for training "one weekend a month, two weeks a year" (the Army National Guard slogan) and whose duties center around homeland defense, disaster response, etc. They're usually called "weekend warriors" by full-time personnel.

This is very helpful context, more references here make sense now, much gratitude for your informations!

 

[Gordon_4]

I don't know anything about ranks or any military stuff others here know - hence not posting in this thread so much - so have no idea what an air guardsman is to people who understand. So the intelligence is definitely above his pay grade then?

Access to classified material is less based on rank than it is on role and responsibility. A corporal who actually works for military intelligence is likely going to have access to a much broader swathe of classified data than a captain in the engineering corps. And that’s before the rather arcane differences in actual clearances levels.

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

Yeah, regardless of actual classification, first and foremost is Need to Know. You can have the highest security clearance in the world but if you aren't the President, it still needs to have something to do with your job

 

[ralfy]

Yeah what about.

One country is being razed by another. For symbolic stakes that do not deserve one death. What an ironical symetry. Poor Hitler. Go to hell.

The U.S. is a liberal democracy which argues that no one deserves to die because one is "supporting/justifying/excusing" an invasion. It also argues that countries like Russia think that way.

Now, it turns out we're dealing with two Russias. Or two United States.

 

[ralfy]

There's still people arguing it was justified, it's still somehow a question.



It benefits various rich people in the US, in this case to help prevent innocent Ukranians being slaughtered. It also helps prevent innocent Ukranians being slaughtered.

As I explained to you, that's not my point.

The U.S. is preventing innocent Ukrainians from being slaughtered because it will gain something from them. Otherwise, they wouldn't care.

Similarly, other countries did not stop the U.S. when it slaughtered innocent Iraqis, Afghans, and more.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

What I want to know is why the fuck some Air Guardsman even had access to that intelligence.

 

[ralfy]

That's certainly a lot of talking that doesn't justify a Russian invasion of Ukraine, holy shit. I'm still not making the connection between "the US sucks" and "therefore it's good that Russia is lobbing cruise missiles into Kyiv"

Here's the connection:

According to Carter, the U.S. is the most warlike country in modern history:

Jimmy Carter: US ‘Most Warlike Nation in History of the World’

The only US president to complete his term without war, military attack or occupation has called the United States “the most warlike nation in the history

www.counterpunch.org

It has engaged in manipulation, destabilization, coercion, intervention, and slaughter in many countries for many decades:

FROM WOUNDED KNEE TO YEMEN – Zoltán Grossman

It claims it does so to preserve "freedom and democracy" for itself and for the world. In reality, its only interest is to control other countries for its own advantage.

That's the reason why it engaged in NATO enlargement, refusing to follow Kennan's advice about diplomacy:

Kennan’s Warning on Ukraine

Ambition, insecurity, and the perils of independence

www.foreignaffairs.com

A Year After Russia Invaded Ukraine, What Would America’s Leading Cold War Strategist Say? - UConn Today

'If diplomacy is not pursued and if unconditional surrender is unattainable, the only other alternative is catastrophe'

today.uconn.edu

and pursued increased belligerence towards not only Russia:

Bill Clinton’s Role in the Crisis Over Ukraine

The militarization of American foreign policy has evolved over the past thirty years. Ironically, this took place in the wake of the dissolution of the

www.counterpunch.org

but even China:

Surrounded: How the U.S. Is Encircling China with Military Bases

foreignpolicy.com

The reason why it has to control other countries is because it needs to maintain its sole superpower status, which means making sure that other countries continue using the dollar for trade and even to price oil in dollars. Otherwise, it won't be able to continue decades of heavy borrowing and spending:

Krugman and the Pied Pipers of Debt

Investors are celebrating an incipient “recovery,” but the interventions that were responsible for it are sowing the seeds of a more violent contraction...

seekingalpha.com

which ironically is also the source of military aid given to Ukraine.

Now, more countries are turning against it, including most people of the world:

MSN

and even its own allies, with France now answering back, Japan buying oil from Russia, several European countries buying oil from Russia via India, and even officials in places like Germany and the Czech Republic questioning sending more military aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, based on surveys more Americans appear to be against sending more aid (because they need aid themselves), serving in the military, and even sending troops. Their own military can no longer get enough personnel as more of them are also not fit to serve:

Even More Young Americans Are Unfit to Serve, a New Study Finds. Here's Why.

The updated figures paint a picture of what is currently plaguing military recruiters in many of the service branches, with a shrinking pool of potential service members available to them.

www.military.com

At some point, those who are still trying to make connections can figure things out and see what needs to be done.

 

[ralfy]

Relative to what?

Russia still ended up with a disproportionately giant stockpile of military equipment including nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Russia has never had to worry about any hypothetical possibility of ever having its sovereignty threatened by military invasion, even from a global superpower like the US or China, because not even a superpower can laugh off the risk of being turned into radioactive dust. NATO expansion doesn't threaten Russia in the slightest, what it threatens is the ability of Russia to use those enormous stockpiles of military equipment to exert power over neighboring countries.



Again, Russia was seen as an important strategic ally in the so-called War on Terror. Its routine military interventions in neighboring states were seen as consistent with the prevailing US foreign policy concern of preventing the spread of Islamism.

But this isn't about the supposed moral responsibilities of the US, it's about the realities of resistance to colonialism. I dislike the political system of my country quite intensely, but if an invading army showed up in my country, dropped bombs on houses and went around indiscriminately killing, raping and torturing people, then abstract questions of political justice or the unfairness of the global order would very quickly stop mattering. Expecting people who have endured this, or who face the very real threat of it happening to them, to spend any time pondering about whether some other country has hypothetically also done bad things elsewhere is ridiculous.



I'm not from the US, and I don't consider any existing or historical government to be or have ever been good. There is no such thing as harmless power.

I protested my government's involvement in the so-called War on Terror at a time when most people, and certainly the political establishment, still supported it. As frustrating as it is to see those responsible go unpunished, it is nonetheless undeniable at this point that those of us who objected to those conflicts have absolutely won the national debate both here and in the US. For the wrong reasons, certainly. I know very well that opposition has more to do with strategic failures than it does with any real principles, but at least we got there for now.

But I didn't protest American neocolonialism in the middle east because the wrong people were doing the colonizing, I did it because colonialism is evil. It is an ideological disease that has no place in the world, and anything that brings us closer to the day when the entire rotted idea is banished to the dustbin of history is good.

As for American exceptionalism, I've made very clear where I think it lies in this argument. I think American exceptionalism is believing that only Americans are capable of any form of agency or responsibility, that morality only matters when it concerns Americans. The antithesis to American exceptionalism isn't the belief in some unique or exceptional evil of which only America is capable, it is the realization that America is not a special country and its people are not special people. Americans are exactly the same as the rest of us, with the same capacity and incentives towards good or evil, the same susceptibility to ideological delusion and failure. The 7.5 billion people on earth who are not Americans are just as important, just as capable of acting in their own interests and just as capable of moral conduct as the just over 300 million who are.

Russia and Ukraine fell apart during the early 1990s, and even throughout was experiencing turmoil, with oligarchs that took over even propping up Putin to serve them.

The concern over nuclear weapons did not even involve the Russian or Ukrainian military forces but the fact that most of them were not secure, which meant that components from them were being sold in the black market to criminal and terrorist groups.

Given that, there was zero reason for NATO enlargement.

In addition, Kennan warned the U.S. and the West that if they did not plus military expansionism in general, then there would be more conflict, and eventually directly with not only Russia but even China.

That's exactly what happened with Russia and what appears to be taking place with China. And over what? The reason why Clinton pushed for NATO enlargement was because he was electioneering against Bob Dole. He wanted to show that he was a macho man and that he could take down the "enemies" of the U.S. in the same way his rival Republicans can. That's what's so tragic about this issue.

So, what's happening beside that? The majority of 7.5 billion people are now speaking up:

MSN

A new world order? BRICS nations offer alternative to West – DW – 04/10/2023

Predictions about the BRICS countries as the fastest growing economies haven't quite panned out. Instead, the alliance is now offering a diplomatic forum and development financing, outside of the Western mainstream.

www.dw.com

and even various allies of the U.S. are answering back at the U.S.

 

[ralfy]

No, unfunded liabilities are future costs that are not currently covered. They can be, either through reducing those costs or expanding revenue to cover them. Of course, revenue should theoretically increase, if nothing else by continuing GDP growth. With an average 2% GDP growth and consistent tax incomes, real terms revenue should double in about 35 years.

Much of this is due to the harsh realities of an ageing population, as government costs tend to go up (pensions, healthcare) with age, outpacing the increase in revenue from the working age population. This will ultimately force governments to reassess their tax and spend plans, but this is the standard work of governments.

And this isn't just a problem for the USA. Take a look at China's projected population change. Likewise consider whether the likes of China, with increased development, will be able to maintain their relatively modest pension and medical spending - because it's very unlikely that they will avoid substantial spending increases on them. Consequently, as we're talking about the relative strengths and weaknesses of countries, the USA's rivals have their own obstacles to overcome.

You're just repeating my points.

The problem isn't "due to the harsh realities of an ageing population" but the U.S. borrowing and spending heavily since the early 190s:

Krugman and the Pied Pipers of Debt

Investors are celebrating an incipient “recovery,” but the interventions that were responsible for it are sowing the seeds of a more violent contraction...

seekingalpha.com

\

And it has to do that because it has been experiencing trade deficits since the 1970s:

Infographic: Long Term Development of the U.S. Trade Balance

This chart shows the U.S. trade balance in goods and services in percent of GDP (1960-2016)

www.statista.com

That's why its total debt has soared to over $90 trillion, with unfunded liabilities at over $180 trillion, plus interest payments it can barely make:

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

In short, it has to borrow to spend, and then borrow more to pay for what it borrowed before, and then borrow again to pay for that, and so on.