US 2024 Presidential Election

[tstorm823]

It seems pretty damn obvious to me why this election is so close. Funding a Genocide and swerving hard right on multiple issues somehow hasn't convinced people that they should vote for Harris...

I think we could stand to talk about this more... what the hell are they doing?

I suppose I should preface that I don't think that Israel is really hurting her, nor do I think she's "far right" by any conception. But that out of the way:

Why is Harris running as a Republican? I praised the pick of Walz at the time, and I still think he was generally a good pick for running mate, because he seemed honestly and authentically left wing. I was excited to have a candidate that wasn't super fake on the ballot, regardless of my opinions on his stances. Now they are running him as mid-western everyman moderate. Why did she pick him at all if she's going to run a centrist campaign? Why is every Harris ad I see or hear about how Trump is going to raise taxes? I don't understand what they're doing at all.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

I think we could stand to talk about this more... what the hell are they doing?

I suppose I should preface that I don't think that Israel is really hurting her, nor do I think she's "far right" by any conception. But that out of the way:

Why is Harris running as a Republican? I praised the pick of Walz at the time, and I still think he was generally a good pick for running mate, because he seemed honestly and authentically left wing. I was excited to have a candidate that wasn't super fake on the ballot, regardless of my opinions on his stances. Now they are running him as mid-western everyman moderate. Why did she pick him at all if she's going to run a centrist campaign? Why is every Harris ad I see or hear about how Trump is going to raise taxes? I don't understand what they're doing at all.

Harris wants your vote, Tstorm's vote. She's hoping you'll pick her because she'll give you low taxes, low regulations, and all without having to follow Trump (who is a danger to you and everyone else). She wants you to remember the golden days of Dick Cheney in the white house. That is the calculus, that you'll turn on Trump because you don't actually want Trump, you just want old republican policies, but without such an embarrassing candidate as Trump.

 

[Seanchaidh]

I think we could stand to talk about this more... what the hell are they doing?

I suppose I should preface that I don't think that Israel is really hurting her, nor do I think she's "far right" by any conception. But that out of the way:

Why is Harris running as a Republican? I praised the pick of Walz at the time, and I still think he was generally a good pick for running mate, because he seemed honestly and authentically left wing. I was excited to have a candidate that wasn't super fake on the ballot, regardless of my opinions on his stances. Now they are running him as mid-western everyman moderate. Why did she pick him at all if she's going to run a centrist campaign? Why is every Harris ad I see or hear about how Trump is going to raise taxes? I don't understand what they're doing at all.

I think she's running as a Republican because that's basically who she is (or who she decided to be when selling her soul), and that the Democratic Party has a habit of treating anything that can be framed as a concession, such as picking Walz over Shapiro, as a 'done deal'-- as if they made a purchase. Coherent messaging is something to which the Democratic Party seems allergic. They probably use too many consultants. And their candidates and elected politicians are different skins for the same vacant automaton, so they tend to listen to those consultants without much of their own volition to animate their campaigns. It's not their job to know better nor to pursue or popularize any particular political agenda, so they don't.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Harris wants your vote, Tstorm's vote. She's hoping you'll pick her because she'll give you low taxes, low regulations, and all without having to follow Trump (who is a danger to you and everyone else). She wants you to remember the golden days of Dick Cheney in the white house. That is the calculus, that you'll turn on Trump because you don't actually want Trump, you just want old republican policies, but without such an embarrassing candidate as Trump.

At this point, it seems like liberals are the last people who have any respect for the presumed dignity and decorum of United States politics. And they think everyone else values that as well instead of thinking it was always fake.

 

[tippy2k2]

I think we could stand to talk about this more... what the hell are they doing?

I suppose I should preface that I don't think that Israel is really hurting her, nor do I think she's "far right" by any conception. But that out of the way:

Why is Harris running as a Republican? I praised the pick of Walz at the time, and I still think he was generally a good pick for running mate, because he seemed honestly and authentically left wing. I was excited to have a candidate that wasn't super fake on the ballot, regardless of my opinions on his stances. Now they are running him as mid-western everyman moderate. Why did she pick him at all if she's going to run a centrist campaign? Why is every Harris ad I see or hear about how Trump is going to raise taxes? I don't understand what they're doing at all.

She has gone hard right on immigration, bragging about that stupid fucking wall they said "not one more foot" of 4 years ago and bragging about having a tougher border plan than Trump. She is an absolute warhawk who will let The World Burn just to keep the war machine turning. After her CNN town hall thing, it's very clear that she is absolutely willing to burn the T off of the LGBT (and if she's willing to do that, you'd be a fool to believe she wouldn't be willing to do the same thing to the LGB part if she thought it would get her more power). She has completely dumped any indication of doing anything to fix our stupidly broken health care system. She loves herself some cops and looks to be continuing the push for Cop Cities and shit like that. She also seems to have no plans to change the Covid response (though at this point, that's probably WAY too late anyway), just pretending like it's all over with so no need to worry about it anymore despite it killing literally thousands of people per month. Not to mention last but not least, every time a Republican endorses her, she bragging nonstop about it, even stating a plan to make sure she has Republicans in her cabinet. Dick Fucking Chenys endorsement should be something any decent person should have SPRINTED away from but she has not only accepted it, she has embraced it and talks about it like a badge of fuckin honor. That alone is a fucking Communist Rally of Red Flags for anyone who somehow still expects Harris to be a Republican in all but name at this point...

Democrats in general have been sliding right to take over the spots where "normal" Republicans were now that MAGA Republicans have really flown to the right. Harris looks to have no intention of changing that trajectory. And instead of doing anything to pressure her, #VBNMW Democrats would rather chastise people actually watching this and going "Hey, maybe this is a stupid idea guys cause if I wanted to vote for a Republican, I'd vote for a Republican..."

EDIT: Or to use the meme that is Evergreen at this point...

 

[Seanchaidh]

DEBRIEF: In Which I Agree With Mehdi Hasan

Why The Democrats Cannot be Pushed Left

briahnajoygray.substack.com

 

[tstorm823]

Harris wants your vote, Tstorm's vote. She's hoping you'll pick her because she'll give you low taxes, low regulations, and all without having to follow Trump (who is a danger to you and everyone else). She wants you to remember the golden days of Dick Cheney in the white house. That is the calculus, that you'll turn on Trump because you don't actually want Trump, you just want old republican policies, but without such an embarrassing candidate as Trump.

But like, we'll all know they're lies, and if by some strange miracle they weren't lies, how is anyone supposed to interpret years of vocal opposition to whatever Republicans stand for just to imitate them the moment she gets close to power? Are they dumb enough to think they'll genuinely get my vote this way, or do they think I'm dumb enough to fall for it? My father is the only other registered Republican among my immediate family members, and he is the type to refuse to vote for Trump on the basis of character, but he'd never buy this crap. Republicans who won't vote for Trump are just not basing their vote on policy, there is no advantage to attacking his policies from the right, reminding people of Trump's character is both more relevant to anti-Trump Republicans and more attractive to the left wing base than running a Republican campaign.

It's not their job to know better nor to pursue or popularize any particular political agenda, so they don't.

But if nothing else, it should be their job to win elections. This isn't even about what they would pursue, I would perfectly understand if they were running on a specific political agenda and then either failed or didn't even try to enact it in office. I don't understand them pursuing such a losing strategy.

She has gone hard right on immigration, bragging about that stupid fucking wall they said "not one more foot" of 4 years ago and bragging about having a tougher border plan than Trump. She is an absolute warhawk who will let The World Burn just to keep the war machine turning. After her CNN town hall thing, it's very clear that she is absolutely willing to burn the T off of the LGBT (and if she's willing to do that, you'd be a fool to believe she wouldn't be willing to do the same thing to the LGB part if she thought it would get her more power). She has completely dumped any indication of doing anything to fix our stupidly broken health care system. She loves herself some cops and looks to be continuing the push for Cop Cities and shit like that. She also seems to have no plans to change the Covid response (though at this point, that's probably WAY too late anyway), just pretending like it's all over with so no need to worry about it anymore despite it killing literally thousands of people per month. Not to mention last but not least, every time a Republican endorses her, she bragging nonstop about it, even stating a plan to make sure she has Republicans in her cabinet. Dick Fucking Chenys endorsement should be something any decent person should have SPRINTED away from but she has not only accepted it, she has embraced it and talks about it like a badge of fuckin honor. That alone is a fucking Communist Rally of Red Flags for anyone who somehow still expects Harris to be a Republican in all but name at this point...

All of these things are just the status quo. Not even like the American status quo, the global status quo, the all of human society in the 21st century status quo. To call this "far right" pretty much white washes over anything actually far right.

 

[tippy2k2]

But like, we'll all know they're lies, and if by some strange miracle they weren't lies, how is anyone supposed to interpret years of vocal opposition to whatever Republicans stand for just to imitate them the moment she gets close to power? Are they dumb enough to think they'll genuinely get my vote this way, or do they think I'm dumb enough to fall for it? My father is the only other registered Republican among my immediate family members, and he is the type to refuse to vote for Trump on the basis of character, but he'd never buy this crap. Republicans who won't vote for Trump are just not basing their vote on policy, there is no advantage to attacking his policies from the right, reminding people of Trump's character is both more relevant to anti-Trump Republicans and more attractive to the left wing base than running a Republican campaign.

But if nothing else, it should be their job to win elections. This isn't even about what they would pursue, I would perfectly understand if they were running on a specific political agenda and then either failed or didn't even try to enact it in office. I don't understand them pursuing such a losing strategy.

All of these things are just the status quo. Not even like the American status quo, the global status quo, the all of human society in the 21st century status quo. To call this "far right" pretty much white washes over anything actually far right.

And the Status Quo is shit, which is why I continue to fight against it. Everything I mentioned are things I don't want but Republicans do, hence I call her a Republican Light. Trump being even more shit doesn't magically make Harris not shit and just because that's all shit you want doesn't mean it's shit I want.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

But like, we'll all know they're lies, and if by some strange miracle they weren't lies, how is anyone supposed to interpret years of vocal opposition to whatever Republicans stand for just to imitate them the moment she gets close to power? Are they dumb enough to think they'll genuinely get my vote this way, or do they think I'm dumb enough to fall for it? My father is the only other registered Republican among my immediate family members, and he is the type to refuse to vote for Trump on the basis of character, but he'd never buy this crap. Republicans who won't vote for Trump are just not basing their vote on policy, there is no advantage to attacking his policies from the right, reminding people of Trump's character is both more relevant to anti-Trump Republicans and more attractive to the left wing base than running a Republican campaign.

Yes, and welcome to why she's tanking in the polls and the left hates her. Because we do actually think she will go to the right on these things, however it'll be to a lesser extent than a republican would, so why would a republican vote for her; but we don't get anything we want either.

 

[Seanchaidh]

But if nothing else, it should be their job to win elections. This isn't even about what they would pursue, I would perfectly understand if they were running on a specific political agenda and then either failed or didn't even try to enact it in office. I don't understand them pursuing such a losing strategy.

Maybe, but a lot of the people working for these campaigns have different incentives. The consultants get paid regardless. And the rift between the left of the party and the right of it has trained various people in the Democratic Party establishment (amplified by CNN and MSNBC) to insist on thinking "pragmatically" which to them means trying to repeat 1992 with Third Way triangulation. So appealing to the left is inconsistent with the messaging they immerse themselves in.

 

[Seanchaidh]

I have to imagine that Democratic Party politicians understand that saying shit like this makes a segment of their voters fall in line and believe it (to the extent they are capable of belief) like lemmings.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

I have to imagine that Democratic Party politicians understand that saying shit like this makes a segment of their voters fall in line and believe it (to the extent they are capable of belief) like lemmings.

"And by expanding trade agreements, we'll pay for this wall through Mexican labor." I will not be surprised if we get a line like that at some point.

 

[Thaluikhain]

It seems pretty damn obvious to me why this election is so close. Funding a Genocide and swerving hard right on multiple issues somehow hasn't convinced people that they should vote for Harris...

Was not the last election also very close, before it was obvious Biden/Harris would do that? I mean, given past Dems it was a safe bet, though.

 

[Silvanus]

Still a silly question based on assumptions that may be completely unfounded. Probability can be useful in determining how a large group of people might act on average. It is not useful in determining how a single specific individual might act.

The observer assumes that if a fan of a particular author sees a rare book by that author that they will be compelled to buy it. That's not how people work though.

No, that assumption is not necessary. The assumption need only be that given what we know of that person, they are likelier than the average person to do so.

Also: we are ultimately talking about the actions of large groups of people.

 

[Silvanus]

so it's not relevant to what tippy2k2 wrote. no one here (or maybe anywhere) is a fan (biggest or otherwise) of Kamala who isn't already voting for her (unless they're ineligible to vote in the relevant election).

I have already said that if one views Harris and Trump as exactly identical, then it doesn't apply, and the likelihood for both remains the same in the event of a third party vote.

that aside, it's silly to say that the likelihood of something having been sold on some day has increased or decreased based on one particular person's actions. do you have any idea how many lurking variables there are in such a matter? and it isn't as if this one is any more important than any of the others. the only thing you're exposing is how tenuous your analysis is.

Nobody said it was the most important factor. The presence of other lurking variables is an obvious truism. None of this changes the fact that the probability of a certain outcome changes when people who may act in A/B/C manner opt for one.

 

[tippy2k2]

pwned

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

No, that assumption is not necessary. The assumption need only be that given what we know of that person, they are likelier than the average person to do so.

Also: we are ultimately talking about the actions of large groups of people.

Again, probability does not matter when trying to figure out what any one specific person will do.

You keep arguing that Tippy voting for Stein is bad, because he's statistically likely to be a Harris voter if Stein wasn't running, and Tippy has repeatedly told you that under no circumstances would he be voting for Harris's current platform. This means that the probability of Tippy voting for Harris is 0, but you keep arguing otherwise.

Your idea of voting likelihood matters for a group of people where you can't easily poll each individual person, but is not a predictor of what any individual person would do. You're making assumptions of how you think other people should act and then predicting they will act in that way because of logic and that's not how people work.

 

[tippy2k2]

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Again, probability does not matter when trying to figure out what any one specific person will do.

You keep arguing that Tippy voting for Stein is bad, because he's statistically likely to be a Harris voter if Stein wasn't running, and Tippy has repeatedly told you that under no circumstances would he be voting for Harris's current platform. This means that the probability of Tippy voting for Harris is 0, but you keep arguing otherwise.

Your idea of voting likelihood matters for a group of people where you can't easily poll each individual person, but is not a predictor of what any individual person would do. You're making assumptions of how you think other people should act and then predicting they will act in that way because of logic and that's not how people work.

It's very hard to be a vote shamer if you don't start from fantasies like these.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Billionaire cowards at Washington Post, LA Times show what life under a dictator is really like | Will Bunch

Rule No. 1 of fighting fascism — do not obey in advance — crumbles as major newspapers kill endorsements to appease Trump.

www.inquirer.com

And news organizations wonder why people don't trust them anymore.