US 2024 Presidential Election

[tstorm823]

Iran nuclear deal.

Did you happen to notice that while Iran's cash flow is on, Hamas attacks Israel, and then when it's off, they mostly don't?

The withdrawal from Afghanistan. The betrayal of the Kurds. The withdrawal from the nuclear treaty. And the assassination of Soleimani, while not bungled, was a strategic misstep that escalated the risk of regional war.

Trump was working on (really, continuing the work of his predecessor) withdrawing from Afghanistan without major incident. It was the Biden administration that bungled that.

Did Assad genocide the Kurds? Wasn't that supposed to happen? Trump pulls US forces out of Syria, leaving the Kurds behind, and then they get murdered by Assad? Oh, that was imaginary. Looking at current headlines, Assad's current big thing is not supporting Israel in a war people here consider genocide. Do you ever look back on things and think "well, I was wrong about that", or do you really just assume that the things you predicted came true?

The nuclear treaty was stupid. It was "in exchange for not developing nuclear weapons, we will give you all the power and ability to sow chaos around the world that nukes might hypothetically have given you."

And "escalated the risk of regional war" is such a dumb thing to say looking back. Your ideas about what is probable are purely made up, and we have hindsight. A new administration came in and changed to less aggressive policies, and major wars broke out in multiple places. Trump assassinated a guy, and the rest of the region was signing peace treaties.

 

[XsjadoBlayde]

 

[Thaluikhain]

You (presumably) voted for the lady who is Pro-Genocide

Living in Brisbane, they presumably do not vote in US elections.

We've been warning you for over a decade now where your LESSER EVIL horseshit would get us

Yes, we know. We all know (or at least should) know where lesser evil voting got the US. But we've also seen where Republicans getting in got the US, and the US system has, for some not totally unknown reason, declined to give votes a third option. I'm not seeing anyone saying they want Harris to get in, just they are more scared of Trump.

(Having said that, outside the forum there are lots of people that legit seem to think Harris will be wonderful, and they absolutely can be condemned for supporting the genocide.)

EDIT: Actually, forget the second part, we've been over this many times and nobody's mind has changed.

 

[Trunkage]

Voteshaming in 2024 is an ugly look bro.

My dude. Tippy has been voteshaming since at least 2016. It's the person I learnt it from

Tippy also needs to understand that they are willing to throw people lives away just so they can pretend they has a clear conscious.

I don't care if he vote Dems or not. It won't cure the problem. It does not matter if you vote or not, you should not have a clear conscious. Pretending otherwise is just lying to yourself

Edit: I don't have a clear conscious because I half voted for Albanese who has done some thing to try and stop Israel but not nearly enough

 

[Trunkage]

Living in Brisbane, they presumably do not vote in US elections.

Oh, I thought you lived in Sydney. I too live in Brisbane

I'm currently hope that we don't get the return of VLAD and get the police to target innocent people again.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

My dude. Tippy has been voteshaming since at least 2016. It's the person I learnt it from

Tippy also needs to understand that they are willing to throw people lives away just so they can pretend they has a clear conscious.

I don't care if he vote Dems or not. It won't cure the problem. It does not matter if you vote or not, you should not have a clear conscious. Pretending otherwise is just lying to yourself

Edit: I don't have a clear conscious because I half voted for Albanese who has done some thing to try and stop Israel but not nearly enough

I've seen who starts voteshaming every time, and it's not third party voters. It's that ugliness that drives people away from mainstream parties.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Oh, I thought you lived in Sydney. I too live in Brisbane

I live in Sydney, I meant that since it says that you are in Brisbane, tippy2k2 is probably incorrect in you voting for anyone in US elections.

But yeah, christ, effing right wingers getting in everywhere, and might take away abortion rights.

 

[Silvanus]

What you are quoting is not a strategy. It also isn't specific to the Green Party. And do you even know what Third Way is?

Absolutely none of this changes the fact that Stein herself identifies her support as drawing principally from the Democratic side of the aisle. The Republicans agree, which would be why Republican orgs fund her.

I still maintain that it's principled and understandable to vote for the Greens. But it's pie in the sky to imagine the Green vote will cost Republicans as much as Democrats, and all three campaigns-- Dem, Republican, and Green-- agree on that point.

But most importantly, it doesn't say anything about the propensities of potential Trump voters.

If Stein believed third-parties drew equally or greater from Republicans, then it wouldn't cost Democrats specifically their victory margin, now, would it? Their victory margin in those circumstances would either stay the same or increase.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

I'm getting that this election is as 50/50 as it gets and that it'll come down to the swing states.

Per Forbes, Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin (31 electoral votes).

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania (62 electoral votes).

The leads are insanely razor-thin, like 1 or 2 points, with a margin of error of 2 or 3 points.

(Nationally, Harris leads +1.2%, bouncing back from a record low of 1 point yesterday)

Supposedly it all comes down to Pennsylvania. Trump won in 2016 by 0.7, Biden won in 2020 by 1.2. If Trump can get back 0.3 of votes, that's a decisive 19 electoral votes.

 

[Silvanus]

Trump was working on (really, continuing the work of his predecessor) withdrawing from Afghanistan without major incident. It was the Biden administration that bungled that.

Trump was the one to agree the numbers and timeframe, with fuck-all input from regional allies and blank-cheque trust for the Taliban. It was his plan.

Did Assad genocide the Kurds? Wasn't that supposed to happen? Trump pulls US forces out of Syria, leaving the Kurds behind, and then they get murdered by Assad? Oh, that was imaginary.

I assume you're unaware that the recent normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations has been accompanied by hundreds of airstrikes against the Kurds, and many hundreds of dead.

The nuclear treaty was stupid. It was "in exchange for not developing nuclear weapons, we will give you all the power and ability to sow chaos around the world that nukes might hypothetically have given you."

Ridiculous mischaracterisation aside: it functionally did limit their nuclear proliferation. They didn't renege. The US did. Now there is no limit; the US's reputation as a state of its word lies in shreds; and Iran is even more able to sow that chaos.

 

[hanselthecaretaker2]

Except how will people know they've been impacted? Are they going to be told that they were removed from the voter rolls and need to re-register to vote? Is that something that people who already did early voting are going to pay attention to?

And how are they identifying non-citizens? Because yes, I do foresee incompetence in that given what happened in Texas when they did the same thing.

Gov. Greg Abbott boasted that Texas removed 6,500 noncitizens from its voter rolls. That number was likely inflated.

An investigation by ProPublica, The Texas Tribune and Votebeat found that U.S. citizens were incorrectly labeled as noncitizens or removed from the rolls because they did not respond to letters about their citizenship.

www.texastribune.org

It’s no doubt a clusterfuck of incompetence but also seems to be at least partially due to lack of feedback from those being flagged, for whatever reasons. Mistakes and oversights can made on both ends.

Another unknown would be, of the fourteen states that don’t require any form of ID to vote, and among the 11 million undocumented immigrants (as of 2022, and likely more since) how much of that will see an overlap. Enough to matter? Questionable if nothing else. This would also be considered a form of voter fraud, and likely wind up favoring the left given current political trends. If it did factor in by any measure it wouldn’t be fair to those who’ve spent the time and energy going about the process legally, let alone natural citizens, and of course like the above there’s always enough a grey area where *shit happens* can dismiss any calls for authentication.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

It’s no doubt a clusterfuck of incompetence but also seems to be at least partially due to lack of feedback from those being flagged, for whatever reasons. Mistakes and oversights can made on both ends.

Another unknown would be, of the fourteen states that don’t require any form of ID to vote, and among the 11 million undocumented immigrants (as of 2022, and likely more since) how much of that will see an overlap. Enough to matter? Questionable if nothing else. This would also be considered a form of voter fraud, and likely wind up favoring the left given current political trends. If it did factor in by any measure it wouldn’t be fair to those who’ve spent the time and energy going about the process legally, let alone natural citizens, and of course like the above there’s always enough a grey area where *shit happens* can dismiss any calls for authentication.

It's been found in multiple studies run by both Republican and Democrat leaning institutions that intentional voter fraud is exceedingly rare. Very few people are stupid enough to risk prison time to get a particular candidate elected. It's a complete nonissue.

The Myth of Voter Fraud

Extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare. Yet repeated, false allegations of fraud can make it harder for millions of eligible Americans to participate in elections.

www.brennancenter.org

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2103619118

Opinion | The deep ironies in the GOP's war on 'voter fraud'

How many Republicans will get caught committing voter fraud before the GOP stops pointing fingers?

www.msnbc.com

 

[Thaluikhain]

It's been found in multiple studies run by both Republican and Democrat leaning institutions that intentional voter fraud is exceedingly rare. Very few people are stupid enough to risk prison time to get a particular candidate elected. It's a complete nonissue.

Unless you count voter suppression (generally using the using of stopping voter fraud) as voter fraud, in which case it's a bit different.

 

[tstorm823]

Trump was the one to agree the numbers and timeframe, with fuck-all input from regional allies and blank-cheque trust for the Taliban. It was his plan.

I assume you're unaware that the recent normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations has been accompanied by hundreds of airstrikes against the Kurds, and many hundreds of dead.

Ridiculous mischaracterisation aside: it functionally did limit their nuclear proliferation. They didn't renege. The US did. Now there is no limit; the US's reputation as a state of its word lies in shreds; and Iran is even more able to sow that chaos.

Someday, you will realize that there is dignity in admitting you were wrong, but apparently today isn't that day.

 

[XsjadoBlayde]

 

[Seanchaidh]

If Stein believed third-parties drew equally or greater from Republicans, then it wouldn't cost Democrats specifically their victory margin, now, would it? Their victory margin in those circumstances would either stay the same or increase.

Again, Stein identified the Biden Administration's genocidal Palestine policy as what has driven voters away from the Democrats. These are not likely Democratic voters, they are former Democratic voters. Voters who have been alienated by genocide and want the Democrats to suffer a humiliating defeat. Harris should be thankful alternatives exist that aren't Trump, because they might well have voted for him just to inflict some amount of pain on her.

 

[Silvanus]

Again, Stein identified the Biden Administration's genocidal Palestine policy as what has driven voters away from the Democrats. These are not likely Democratic voters, they are former Democratic voters. Voters who have been alienated by genocide and want the Democrats to suffer a humiliating defeat.

"lost because of third party support" is very difficult to spin as "lost regardless of third party support". Stein clearly feels differently: that the presence of third parties draws support from others.

Either way, I'm grateful that you're now acknowledging the trend damages Dems relative to Republicans-- hence "suffer a humiliating defeat"... in the contest against the Republicans. In fact, you go a lot further than me in arguing that's the intention rather than a side effect of just voting one's conscience!

 

[Seanchaidh]

"lost because of third party support" is very difficult to spin as "lost regardless of third party support". Stein clearly feels differently: that the presence of third parties draws support from others.

they're not voting for Harris regardless of whether third parties exist: they're just not voting for Harris. That third parties absorb many of those votes is a byproduct of the fact that Trump is also shit for many of the same reasons Harris is.

'because of third party support' is just repeating the phrasing of the Third Way study's conclusion. Third Way is invested in promoting the idea that you're so artlessly defending; they are part of the reason for the familiarity bias. Stein makes it clear that the shift in support from Democrats to third parties is a byproduct not of their existence or strategy but the fact that Democrats are doing something so heinous that it cannot be forgotten or forgiven. if third parties didn't exist, do you think these people would just forget about the mass murder? Democrats are losing support because they have made themselves toxic. That's completely on them.

Either way, I'm grateful that you're now acknowledging the trend damages Dems relative to Republicans-- hence "suffer a humiliating defeat"... in the contest against the Republicans. In fact, you go a lot further than me in arguing that's the intention rather than a side effect of just voting one's conscience!

If people who want Democrats to lose are voting third party, then by your logic Harris is the beneficiary of their choice to vote third party: you don't cause Harris to lose by voting for Harris, but you can do so by voting for Trump. This trend you're identifying has nothing to do with third parties and everything to do with the fact that the Democratic party throws its constituencies under the bus whenever money asks, and they did so in a particularly gruesome way this past year.

 

[Silvanus]

they're not voting for Harris regardless of whether third parties exist: they're just not voting for Harris. That third parties absorb many of those votes is a byproduct of the fact that Trump is also shit for many of the same reasons Harris is.

'because of third party support' is just repeating the phrasing of the Third Way study's conclusion. Third Way is invested in promoting the idea that you're so artlessly defending; they are part of the reason for the familiarity bias.

And phrasing that Stein also uses. You can dismiss it as propaganda all you want (and why not? It's your default approach to any perspective you dislike) but it's an angle that Stein herself is all in on.

if third parties didn't exist, do you think these people would just forget about the mass murder?

Of course not. If you actually understood the people you're condemning, you'd know that people respond to their concern over that mass murder in different ways. You think they're not doing the best thing for the Palestinians, and they think the same about you.

If people who want Democrats to lose are voting third party, then by your logic Harris is the beneficiary of their choice to vote third party: you don't cause Harris to lose by voting for Harris, but you can do so by voting for Trump.

that is some spectacular mental gymnastics.

You're the one who said they want the Dems to lose against the Republicans. Not me. So if that assumption leads to some foolish contradictions, they're all yours.

 

[Seanchaidh]

And phrasing that Stein also uses. You can dismiss it as propaganda all you want (and why not? It's your default approach to any perspective you dislike) but it's an angle that Stein herself is all in on.

Hardly. She makes it quite clear that the Democrats have only themselves to blame for people turning away from them. And frankly it's a strange thing for you to insist otherwise.

Of course not. If you actually understood the people you're condemning, you'd know that people respond to their concern over that mass murder in different ways. You think they're not doing the best thing for the Palestinians, and they think the same about you.

I'm not concerned about what preening liberals think.

that is some spectacular mental gymnastics.

You should probably read and think through these posts more, then you might not say silly shit like this.

You're the one who said they want the Dems to lose against the Republicans. Not me. So if that assumption leads to some foolish contradictions, they're all yours.

It is only inconsistent with what you think. So the foolish contradiction, as you call it, can only be yours.