Well, the last 3 there should have been reflected in polling. The first was a blindside though, which wouldn't necessarily have been adequately reflected by polls.
Biden v. Trump Election Mega Thread
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Well, the last 3 there should have been reflected in polling. The first was a blindside though, which wouldn't necessarily have been adequately reflected by polls.
And then there's 2018, which was pretty accurate. Dems were looking good going in, Dems gained 40 seats in the house and 2 pickups in the senate. Dems have also been making gains in the off year elections, with higher turnout than normal in all of them. And this year looks to have MASSIVE TURNOUT, considering 32 million people have already voted and it's still 2 weeks to election day. One could argue there's a trend here.
If you're going to argue the Polls are off, you're left with two possibilities.
1.The Polls are off in Trumps Favor
2.The Polls are off in Bidens Favor.
The fact people who argue the Polls are off always pick 1 looks like wishful thinking or doom scrolling.
Obama returns to the campaign trail, rallying support for Biden in hopes of ending Trump's presidency
Barack Obama had always intended to sit out the first presidential election of his post-presidency, taking heed of the private guidance given to him from Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush.
edition.cnn.com
They had to get Obama out for Joe... Not looking good.
No it's pointing out how the argument has shifted more from policy to just painting the opposition as an enemy
... If the situation America is in is part and parcel DUE to what the opposition has done, wouldn't it be blind and/or dumb to ignore that and just talk over the issues that are simmering through all of America?
generally you're meant to say how you policies are different though not just "They did it bad we'd do it better but no we won't tell you how at all"
And he did. From how he would handle Covid, Race Relations, Police, Environment, Job creation, As I shown. Through Interview and interview. Which I listed. That wasn't deemed worthy.
At this point, it would just be more beneficial to say that you just will hate on anything Biden does. I mean, these are people reporting on what Biden says and what he has on his platform. People are studying his plans and say there will be millions more jobs created if Biden's plans can be allowed to come into fruition.
Biden isn't "I'll replace Obamacare with something terrific". Biden's plans are making sense to people who deal with these fields, more than you and me.
Which again only come out in the odd interview they're really not the focus of a lot of the rallying etc or messaging coming out.
I would be astonished if the poll averages are more than 2% off nationally and probably they'll be closer to 1% off. A little more leeway for individual states. Given that Biden is "safe" (over 5% ahead) in enough states to win outright, the odds look exceedingly bad for Trump, as it is so implausible that the polls are that far wrong.
We know that due to voter distribution and electoral college votes by state, Trump has an advantage by being able to take the key swing states despite a lower national vote, but that's estimated in the region of 3% (national). Therefore I suspect Trump would need to chop Biden's lead to under 5 points nationally to be properly competitive and have a decent shot at snatching enough swing states with very narrow margins. He's currently ~10% down and has been no better than ~7% down for months. The consistency of the margin between the two over the campaign period is possibly unprecedented: this suggests to me most voters have strong feelings and have all but made their minds up already, so would be very hard to shift by now.
I expect Trump will pick up some Republican doubters at the end, who as the crunch point arrives give in to their party hearts despite their head's despair with Trump himself, and there will be a percent or two tightening in the polls right towards the end.
Google, Microsoft, AT&T, Comcast, Amazon, Walt Disney, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News are all making successes.
Joes dementia started to pop out a couple of times. The moderator was really good, and they trained donald not to interrupt too much. There were some actual good questions and topics asked, that gave trouble to both of them equally. It was somewhat of a stalemate, but I fear this would hinder Joe since he looked tired and troubled in key moments. MMS is gonna clean it up for him.
It got really boring and dumb when both of them were just randomly throwing out imaginary numbers and statistics.
And this is what bothers me and baffles me at the same time.
By just acting like an 11 year old, Trump wins at things. Everyone has to be exemplary compared to Trump. They have to say everything right, have the cure for Cancer and Aids in his back pocket, and clean up everyone else's messes. If not, think about putting your vote somewhere else.
Trump just has not to mess up his pants and he becomes lauded for being able to debate on the same level as a 11 year old.
Yeah, dystopian movies have lied to us, the PotUS tearing down the country should be a machiavellian genius or ex evil special forces or something. Not someone that just turns up. Scary clowns should have the emphasis on scary, not on clowns.
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All the polls I have read thus far have Biden winning the debate by a landslide so I would take anyone who thinks that Trump paying more in Taxes to China than he does to the US and having the worst trade deficit with China in 12 Years has a better "mindset" towards China than Biden with a grain of salt on who they think won the debate.
Trump was cold to all of those who have lost loved ones from his incompetence in handling the Pandemic, he let everyone know he has no plans at all for helping more survive, he made it clear he had no plan for healthcare, he made it clear he really has no plan for anything. Biden actually laid out plans for the future. Biden laid out strategy. Trump couldn't even answer the questions or stay on task. what sort of inaugural speech to address democrats states was that? He couldn't even make it through the question topic without rambling on about something else entirely.
The funny thing is that Trump also thinks that he was tanking Biden with Oil by having Biden talking about transitioning to green renewables, when Oil companies are some of those investing the MOST in renewables and green energy because they already know that is where things are headed in the future. They have been actually shifting to that since the 1980's. People always think it is a matter of oil vs Green, the truth is Oil is transitioning to green ALREADY.
I will commend Trump on this after the debate: he didn't shit himself and walk away. That is the best he's getting. Everything else was a disaster. Almost every sentence was nonsense, almost everything was a lie. Also pre-paying taxes, not a thing. At least not in way he described it that he just gave the IRS how much money he'll make this year and pays taxes. Also pre-paying taxes is withheld for people making less that $1000 a year, so...
Joe stayed on task MUCH more than Trump did though. Just compare the questions to their answers. Trumps inaugural address to democrat states was ridiculous. Trump had Zero plans laid out there. Biden actually discussed plans for the future, polices and how these things are going to get done. Each time the moderator asked Trump to address specific people, he couldn't do it, he talked about something else. To call that equal would be a stretch when Trump didn't discuss a single policy or plan for our future here. Biden actually did.
Discussing actual plans, policies, and what you are going to do > changing the subject and having no plans.
Compassion towards people who are dying from toxins from plants > we're paying you to die for us.
Taking care of all Americans > " blue states" vs "red states"
Having plans for clean job creation > money in pockets of oil companies today is more important than our future.
Acknowledging you have made mistakes and are trying to make things better > Bragging about being the best person for racism in the history of the United States.
We improve the economy by getting COVID-19 under control and making people safer> Trying to sacrifice the people to save a buck today.
Just to name a few. I don't think there was ANY topic here that trump won and the polls I am seeing thus far are showing the same as well.
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He literally lost every argument. When you look at his actual plans and policies and answers, Trump really had none. Biden did. That is the biggest factor. I have no idea why people think Trump making shit up, talking about Clinton and Obama rather than Biden and not answering the questions some how makes it a toss up. Just look at the transcripts.
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