How long until this Pandemic ceases?

[Phoenixmgs]

I predict basically no restrictions next summer.

I mean, that’s in your country it’s probably going to take longer in less well off countries

Many less well-off countries are further along than the more well-off countries.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20201814v1.full.pdf

 

[Trunkage]

I predict basically no restrictions next summer.


Many less well-off countries are further along than the more well-off countries.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20201814v1.full.pdf

Okay. Take Egypt for example. 100k case in a population of 100 million people. But somehow herd immunity has been reached. I don’t see much in this study that explains why this is occurring. I think the assumption that they have it under wraps is a big one.

But maybe it’s a demographic thing. Maybe they don’t have the older population that show signs of it more. Maybe being near the tropics help. Maybe it distances between population centres. IDK. I know this study is just looking at curves and not exploring their causes but, as I said, I think they’re making some assumption. Perhaps is that half these countries did something well before it got to a 1000 cases a day. Some topped at 100

My particular comment was about when vaccines would reach poorer countries as typical Capitalists response to the situation. I.e. it always prioritizes people with money. If these countries don’t get a second wave, awesome. Because relying on a vaccine is probably not a great idea

 

[Bob_McMillan]

Frankly, its pretty hard for me to not blame the Chinese. I DEFINITELY blame my own government as well, since they've essentially selling off our country to the Chinese government. The Chinese influx into our country has been a problem for a long time, and the coronavirus made it even worse. Since our bootlicker government didn't ban travelers from China early on, more than half a million of them entered the country during the worst stages of the pandemic in China. Our country is made up of islands, with very little travel in between them, so this pandemic shouldn't have affected us as much. But those natural defenses don't really matter much when you have infection vectors flown straight to your major cities.

Yes, our government should have done way, way more. But the Chinese government, and all the Chinese companies who send their employees here, should have made damn well sure that the Chinese people leaving their country were fit to travel. And when our pandemic was at its worst, instead of cooperating with authorities, they set up their own illegal, unlicensed, and unmonitored Covid testing centers. At a time where people were literally dying in tents outside of hospitals because they couldn't be treated without getting tested.

So for me, yeah blaming China is not a high priority right now. But the thought of them getting off scot free pisses me the fuck off.

Anyway, our incompetent government refuses to do mass testing and insists that waiting for a vaccine is the only option. They're relying again on sucking up to China in the hope that their benevolent government will prioritize us when they develop a vaccine. Good strategy, relying on vaccines from a country a) that is already set on profiting off the pandemic they are mostly responsible for and b) that has over a billion people to vaccinate first.

I fully expect to be wearing masks and social distancing until maybe by the end of next year. This whole pandemic really has me wanting to jump ship and move to some country that isn't a corrupt shithole.

 

[Trunkage]

I fully expect to be wearing masks and social distancing until maybe by the end of next year. This whole pandemic really has me wanting to jump ship and move to some country that isn't a corrupt shithole.

Well, I’m sorry to tell you, but no place exists

 

[Bob_McMillan]

Well, I’m sorry to tell you, but no place exists

I'll take slightly less corrupt shithole then. I hear New Zealand isn't so bad.

 

[lil devils x]

Well, I’m sorry to tell you, but no place exists

The ones that do don't want any of the infected Zombies invading their shores. New Zealand, for example, really doesn't want people bringing it there and who can blame them? They did a great job at getting it under control, taking in Covid-19 refugees would negate their efforts.

I'll take slightly less corrupt shithole then. I hear New Zealand isn't so bad.

Yes, but they don't want us all invading them and bringing the virus with us. XD

 

[Bob_McMillan]

Yes, but they don't want us all invading them and bringing the virus with us. XD

Funny you say that, because a month ago the first new cases of Covid in New Zealand after a long time all came from my country.

 

[lil devils x]

Funny you say that, because a month ago the first new cases of Covid in New Zealand after a long time all came from my country.

Likely from people trying to get away from it before it got them too!

 

[Kae]

Well, I’m sorry to tell you, but no place exists

We can fix that...
Look guys, I'm not saying we should kill all elected officials in all countries, but we definitely should kill them all.

 

[Trunkage]

Funny you say that, because a month ago the first new cases of Covid in New Zealand after a long time all came from my country.

We had way more infected from the US than China in May. Let alone what crap we are getting from the US now

 

[Trunkage]

We can fix that...
Look guys, I'm not saying we should kill all elected officials in all countries, but we definitely should kill them all.

You know what happens when you do that? You become that official that needs to be killed

 

[Phoenixmgs]

Okay. Take Egypt for example. 100k case in a population of 100 million people. But somehow herd immunity has been reached. I don’t see much in this study that explains why this is occurring. I think the assumption that they have it under wraps is a big one.

But maybe it’s a demographic thing. Maybe they don’t have the older population that show signs of it more. Maybe being near the tropics help. Maybe it distances between population centres. IDK. I know this study is just looking at curves and not exploring their causes but, as I said, I think they’re making some assumption. Perhaps is that half these countries did something well before it got to a 1000 cases a day. Some topped at 100

My particular comment was about when vaccines would reach poorer countries as typical Capitalists response to the situation. I.e. it always prioritizes people with money. If these countries don’t get a second wave, awesome. Because relying on a vaccine is probably not a great idea

The less well-off countries have far less testing and thus far lower % of official case counts to actual infections. Recent data points to even Japan having far far more infected at some point than their numbers show as Japan doesn't have high testing capability. The US tests 3.49 people per thousand daily while Japan tests 0.16 people per thousand daily.

 

[Trunkage]

The less well-off countries have far less testing and thus far lower % of official case counts to actual infections. Recent data points to even Japan having far far more infected at some point than their numbers show as Japan doesn't have high testing capability. The US tests 3.49 people per thousand daily while Japan tests 0.16 people per thousand daily.

If that was an extensive practice, death rates would be up. Just checking Egypt, that doesn’t immediately seem to be the case. I don’t deny this as a possibility

 

[Gergar12]

Sometime in 2021.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Exactly. I see it as being terribly ignorant to blame any nation for a virus that could happen anywhere. We honestly need to be able to coordinate a global response to pandemics rather than this fly by our arse shit we have been ignorantly doing trying to get everyone killed.

I heard a ton of racist crap said about Mexico during 2009 Swine Flu as well and that pissed me off as much as it does to hear people ignorantly call this the "Chinese virus". It doesn't help solve this or help anyone to promote xenophophia and blame when this is just one of the realities of living on an ever changing planet and we need to learn to adapt as a global society rather than sow division. We need to have the world unite to prepare a proper response and share resources to resolve these things and by behaving ridiculous about it, it just makes that more difficult to do. If all nations on earth instead looked at it as " we are all at risk and we are all a part of the solution" and worked to help one another to address these things instead, we could save more lives everywhere. I see people saying stupid things about other nations as making it worse instead of better.

I mean if only we had an organisation some kind of World authority whose job it was to deal with Health crisis and be an Organization whose job it was to put out recommendations and send people in to test and analyse stuff.

No this is on China. They lied about it and tried to cover things up. They failed to enforce their own laws on Wet Market put in place after a previous near global pandemic. No Wet market it may never have started. Actually being transparent and the world could have got more research done early on and been prepared because people didn't know it was able to spread so easily. They wouldn't let scientists from other countries onto the ground to try and start research. They were fine accepting a lot of PPE given to them by other countries then when it wasn't as needed they tried to sell it back to the other countries to profiteer off those supplies. They refused to let some US firms access their own stock in Chinese warehouses because it was PPE stuff and held it to ransom essentially. They supplied substandard materials be it chemicals used in making Covid tests (the chemicals were contaminated with Covid already) which held up other countries being able to ramp up testing and caused testing shortages. They even supplied the wrong kind of equipment to the UK when the UK bought some ventilators and it was only thank to the UK having people who will work with what they got and find a way to do it that luckily technicians found a way to link it up to UK systems etc and even then it was determined they'd only be functionally useful for a month at least due to all the cut corners in design.


China did everything it could to hide this outbreak and make sure trade and travel wasn't disrupted and then it did everything it could to profit off the pandemic and if I were being conspiratorial they did everything they could to hamper the rest of the world trying to deal with it be it dodgy equipment and supplies or PR and propaganda claiming it would be racist to stop flights coming in from China.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

If that was an extensive practice, death rates would be up. Just checking Egypt, that doesn’t immediately seem to be the case. I don’t deny this as a possibility

There's a lot of variables obviously but a lot of less well-off countries average ages are quite a bit lower than the US (Kenya's average age is 18/20 vs the US at 38). On the Japan side of things, they have a population that masked from day 1 (lower initial viral loads = less severe infections) along with a population with relatively better vitamin d levels.

 

[lil devils x]

k

I mean if only we had an organisation some kind of World authority whose job it was to deal with Health crisis and be an Organization whose job it was to put out recommendations and send people in to test and analyse stuff.

No this is on China. They lied about it and tried to cover things up. They failed to enforce their own laws on Wet Market put in place after a previous near global pandemic. No Wet market it may never have started. Actually being transparent and the world could have got more research done early on and been prepared because people didn't know it was able to spread so easily. They wouldn't let scientists from other countries onto the ground to try and start research. They were fine accepting a lot of PPE given to them by other countries then when it wasn't as needed they tried to sell it back to the other countries to profiteer off those supplies. They refused to let some US firms access their own stock in Chinese warehouses because it was PPE stuff and held it to ransom essentially. They supplied substandard materials be it chemicals used in making Covid tests (the chemicals were contaminated with Covid already) which held up other countries being able to ramp up testing and caused testing shortages. They even supplied the wrong kind of equipment to the UK when the UK bought some ventilators and it was only thank to the UK having people who will work with what they got and find a way to do it that luckily technicians found a way to link it up to UK systems etc and even then it was determined they'd only be functionally useful for a month at least due to all the cut corners in design.


China did everything it could to hide this outbreak and make sure trade and travel wasn't disrupted and then it did everything it could to profit off the pandemic and if I were being conspiratorial they did everything they could to hamper the rest of the world trying to deal with it be it dodgy equipment and supplies or PR and propaganda claiming it would be racist to stop flights coming in from China.

WHO has no ability or authority. We need better management, funding and concrete agreements among nations for capability to make that actually happen here. China notified WHO of a viral pneumonia in December. US intelligence was tracking this in China in November.



"Dec. 31, 2019: China alerts the World Health Organization of 27 cases of “viral pneumonia” in the central city of Wuhan. Authorities shut down a wet market in Wuhan the next day, after discovering some patients were vendors or dealers.
Jan. 11, 2020: A 61-year-old man is reported as the first death. Preliminary lab tests cited by Chinese state media point to a new type of coronavirus.

Jan. 13: A Chinese woman is quarantined in Thailand, the first detection of the virus outside China.

Jan. 15: Japan confirms its first case.

Jan. 20: South Korea confirms its first case.

Jan. 22: The WHO convenes an emergency meeting with health authorities around the world. Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the new coronavirus does not yet constitute an international emergency.

Jan. 23: China issues a lockdown for millions of people in Wuhan and Hubei as the death toll rises to 18."

Timeline: How the global coronavirus pandemic unfolded

Here are some key developments as the novel coronavirus spread around the world:

www.reuters.com

"November 2019
According to CNN, U.S. intelligence agencies begin tracking in China the disease that would later become known as the coronavirus.

Late November 2019
According to ABC News, U.S. intelligence officials begin "warning that a contagion was sweeping through China's Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population."

December 2019
Intelligence analysts reportedly begin briefing "policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House."

‘Blinking Red’: A Running Timeline of How the Trump Administration Ignored Warnings, Misled the Public, and Made the Coronavirus Crisis Worse - Center for American Progress

This interactive timeline presents the important details about what Trump and his administration have and haven’t done about the coronavirus pandemic—every ignored warning; every needless, wasteful fight; and every tragic misstep they try to spin into success.

www.americanprogress.org

/

Here is the reality. In both China and the US, when someone comes in with these symptoms, they usually take a flu test. If the flu test is negative, they usually diagnose them with an URI, Bronchitis or even possibly pneumonia and prescribe them antibiotics and send them on their way. They usually do not test them further. This would take some time before they would even do what is required to identify this as a new virus. You also have to consider the cycle of the virus and how long it takes before we start seeing a large amount of deaths from it, and that the initial virus was not as contagious before it mutated, making it take even longer for them to really understand what was happening. China actually likely found this and reacted to it FASTER than they would have in the US due to the hurdles you have to jump through in the US to even get insurers to cover the costs to find out what this is in the first place. Private insurers will sometimes pay for a flu test ( not always) but they will not always even pay for other labs. If this had broken out in a rural part of the US , they would likely not have known about it for a long while after the bodies started piling up. They do not do autopsies on everyone in the US unless the family is willing to pay $3,000 to $5000 out of pocket or a judge orders it so they would have likely just attributed the deaths to pneumonia, stroke, ect without checking further for most cases.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Will blaming China somehow make people who died from the disease less dead?

 

[Houseman]

Will blaming China somehow make people who died from the disease less dead?

Correctly identifying the cause may help preventing such a thing from happening again in the future, which would, in turn save future lives.

But no, it won't bring back the dead. It'll just save lives.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

k

WHO has no ability or authority. We need better management, funding and concrete agreements among nations for capability to make that actually happen here. China notified WHO of a viral pneumonia in December. US intelligence was tracking this in China in November.

And didn't admit it could spread person to person until February.

"Dec. 31, 2019: China alerts the World Health Organization of 27 cases of “viral pneumonia” in the central city of Wuhan. Authorities shut down a wet market in Wuhan the next day, after discovering some patients were vendors or dealers.
Jan. 11, 2020: A 61-year-old man is reported as the first death. Preliminary lab tests cited by Chinese state media point to a new type of coronavirus.

Jan. 13: A Chinese woman is quarantined in Thailand, the first detection of the virus outside China.

Jan. 15: Japan confirms its first case.

Jan. 20: South Korea confirms its first case.

Jan. 22: The WHO convenes an emergency meeting with health authorities around the world. Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the new coronavirus does not yet constitute an international emergency.

Based mostly on info from Chinese authorities

Jan. 23: China issues a lockdown for millions of people in Wuhan and Hubei as the death toll rises to 18."

Timeline: How the global coronavirus pandemic unfolded

Here are some key developments as the novel coronavirus spread around the world:

www.reuters.com

Yeh weren't keen on ending international flights though were they?

"November 2019
According to CNN, U.S. intelligence agencies begin tracking in China the disease that would later become known as the coronavirus.

Late November 2019
According to ABC News, U.S. intelligence officials begin "warning that a contagion was sweeping through China's Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population."

December 2019
Intelligence analysts reportedly begin briefing "policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House."

‘Blinking Red’: A Running Timeline of How the Trump Administration Ignored Warnings, Misled the Public, and Made the Coronavirus Crisis Worse - Center for American Progress

This interactive timeline presents the important details about what Trump and his administration have and haven’t done about the coronavirus pandemic—every ignored warning; every needless, wasteful fight; and every tragic misstep they try to spin into success.

www.americanprogress.org

/

Considering we don't know how often a new virus is reported and claims of preparation being needed it's not a great indication of how out of the ordinary this was or how much prep was believed to be needed vs what the information from groups like the WHO was saying at the time.

Here is the reality. In both China and the US, when someone comes in with these symptoms, they usually take a flu test. If the flu test is negative, they usually diagnose them with an URI, Bronchitis or even possibly pneumonia and prescribe them antibiotics and send them on their way. They usually do not test them further. This would take some time before they would even do what is required to identify this as a new virus. You also have to consider the cycle of the virus and how long it takes before we start seeing a large amount of deaths from it, and that the initial virus was not as contagious before it mutated, making it take even longer for them to really understand what was happening. China actually likely found this and reacted to it FASTER than they would have in the US due to the hurdles you have to jump through in the US to even get insurers to cover the costs to find out what this is in the first place. Private insurers will sometimes pay for a flu test ( not always) but they will not always even pay for other labs. If this had broken out in a rural part of the US , they would likely not have known about it for a long while after the bodies started piling up. They do not do autopsies on everyone in the US unless the family is willing to pay $3,000 to $5000 out of pocket or a judge orders it so they would have likely just attributed the deaths to pneumonia, stroke, ect without checking further for most cases.

The first reported death was the 11th of January but presumably they'd have had some serious cases come in already needing additional care and likely would have taken a sample of the virus at the time to start analysing. Hell as you pointed out there was already claims of a new virus about so some-one (the doctor who tried to raise the alarm but was silenced) knew about it so no that wasn't just China thinking it was the flu or something.

As for not knowing about it in the USA well they caught Swine flu thanks to cases in the USA in two children