How long until this Pandemic ceases?

[Tireseas]

As implied by my signature, it depends on what you mean by "ceases." COVID-19 is likely to stay with us for several generations, but the hope is that there will be effective enough vaccines that it will overall be more akin to the flu in terms of its communicability rather than nearly twice that.

I suspect the social distancing measures will be in some form of effect in the US until 2022 or 2023, with restrictions relaxing slowly as cases drop and a vaccine becomes more available. Masks and avoiding larger gatherings will continue to be the norm until one or two vaccines are available for general use.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

As implied by my signature, it depends on what you mean by "ceases." COVID-19 is likely to stay with us for several generations, but the hope is that there will be effective enough vaccines that it will overall be more akin to the flu in terms of its communicability rather than nearly twice that.

I suspect the social distancing measures will be in some form of effect in the US until 2022 or 2023, with restrictions relaxing slowly as cases drop and a vaccine becomes more available. Masks and avoiding larger gatherings will continue to be the norm until one or two vaccines are available for general use.

Current data suggests that you'll have long-term immunity to the virus, all the antibody articles are basically fear mongering (there's no reason for your body to keep producing antibodies for any virus after the infection is defeated yet we have long lasting immunity to many things because antibodies are only a single part of the immune system). SARS from 2013 and current SARS are similar enough viruses that if you had SARS in 2003, you're immune to Covid-19. That means that SARS immunity has lasted 17 years and counting now. Why would Covid-19 not produce a similar memory T cell response as SARS from 2003? The flu and this virus are completely different beasts. The flu is very special in the fact that it can't actually replicate itself without making mistakes while Covid-19 has error-checking mechanism when it makes copies of itself. Basically, this virus is going to be gone in a year or 2 whenever enough people get it from being infected or vaccinated that it can't spread any more.

 

[Agema]

Why would Covid-19 not produce a similar memory T cell response as SARS from 2003?

Because it's a different virus.

 

[Gordon_4]

International preparation and agreed response, eh? Sounds to me like we need some kind of Organisation.... to look after Health... but for all the World.

Which is all but useless without powers of enforcement.

 

[lil devils x]

The OHW? I've never heard of such a place

International preparation and agreed response, eh? Sounds to me like we need some kind of Organisation.... to look after Health... but for all the World.

I already discussed WHO.

WHO has no ability or authority. We need better management, funding and concrete agreements among nations for capability to make that actually happen here.

WHO isn't actually empowered to act is part of the problem. We need concrete contracts with Nations with the authority, ability, funding to actually respond when there is an outbreak. We really do not have that here.

 

[Trunkage]

Also the UK has a bit of an issue with it coming out it's possible they've managed to count the same infections twice meaning the numbers could have been as low as half the reported ones. Also issues with Coronavirus deaths being reported as any death with coronavirus. So dying in car crash would be deemed as a coronavirus death.

Just for reference sake, how many car crashes were ever misattributed to COVID in the UK?

 

[Tireseas]

Which is all but useless without powers of enforcement.

Actually, the WHO's lack of enforcement powers has helped it be the global institution it is. Countries can't be forced to accept WHO aid or assistance, but their level of expertise when it comes to infectious diseases as well as their non-national status has made them more appealing than many NGOs and government assistance in dealing with public health crises.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

Because it's a different virus.

The same T cells kill both viruses. There's no reason to believe immunity will be short-lived. The reasons people think it will be short-lived are misguided articles about antibodies and reinfections. From personal experience, immunity is at least 6 months. I also didn't spread it upon "reinfection" unless all 5 guys I worked with in the same room already had it before.

 

[Samtemdo8]

Dozens.

There's one by AstraZeneca which is reckoned to be ready and available* in the UK by late November or December. Other countries may approve it later. There are another three which will probably pass trials first or second quarter next year.

* Limited: probably frontline healthcare workers first, then for the elderly and vulnerable early 2021, general population mid-2021.



Globally, yes. But a raft of vaccines will probably have it under control during 2021 in most developed countries.



Most definitely yes.



I think the global community is a bit busy dealing with the virus currently. There will be lots of time to take China to task later.

1. What's the news of US created vaccine, and its inoculation testings for US folks?

2. What's the estimation of developed countries having the virus under control to the point of being able to go outside without a mask and doing activities like seeing a concert or watching a film in theater?

3. So its already endemic, what's the effort to permanently eradicate this virus to make sure it won't be endemic for generations?

And I have one last question, are we finally gonna put a stop to services that seems like its a breeding ground of diseases. Because I'll be honest, I truly believe that Cruise Ships are an industry that is too dangerous and pointless to exist right now. As far as I know, the virus spread globally was because of Cruise Ship vacationers from other countries.

 

[Agema]

1. What's the news of US created vaccine, and its inoculation testings for US folks?

US vaccines are the other three that should be ready before Q2 2021. Once past trials it will probably take a while to ramp up delivery. Healthcare workers and the vulnerable will probably be prioritised (say, within ~3 months of approval) and 6 months to a year for full, nationwide roll-out.

I don't know whether the "Oxford vaccine" (AstraZeneca), having presumably.passed trials in the UK and available earlier, would be rushed through FDA approval, as the UK and USA have different regulatory standards. It'll probably end up a political thing.

There are other vaccines. Russia will start deploying its vaccine to Russians early around the end of 2020, but it's safety and efficacy is less known, and there may be some others trickle through during the first half of 2021.

2. What's the estimation of developed countries having the virus under control to the point of being able to go outside without a mask and doing activities like seeing a concert or watching a film in theater?

Mid to late 2021, I would expect.

3. So its already endemic, what's the effort to permanently eradicate this virus to make sure it won't be endemic for generations?

Probably not happening: I suspect the world has got it forever. But like your average new influenza variant, it will probably decline in lethality over time. In essence, it will probably end up very like 'flu, constantly doing the rounds, with substantial societal immunity built up over the years so not that many people get it, and a very modest fatality rate.

And I have one last question, are we finally gonna put a stop to services that seems like its a breeding ground of diseases. Because I'll be honest, I truly believe that Cruise Ships are an industry that is too dangerous and pointless to exist right now. As far as I know, the virus spread globally was because of Cruise Ship vacationers from other countries.

Nope, I can't see these ending. But I guess we might spend a few years demanding people who go on them vaccinate.

 

[lil devils x]

US vaccines are the other three that should be ready before Q2 2021. Once past trials it will probably take a while to ramp up delivery. Healthcare workers and the vulnerable will probably be prioritised (say, within ~3 months of approval) and 6 months to a year for full, nationwide roll-out.

I don't know whether the "Oxford vaccine" (AstraZeneca), having presumably.passed trials in the UK and available earlier, would be rushed through FDA approval, as the UK and USA have different regulatory standards. It'll probably end up a political thing.

There are other vaccines. Russia will start deploying its vaccine to Russians early around the end of 2020, but it's safety and efficacy is less known, and there may be some others trickle through during the first half of 2021.



Mid to late 2021, I would expect.



Probably not happening: I suspect the world has got it forever. But like your average new influenza variant, it will probably decline in lethality over time. In essence, it will probably end up very like 'flu, constantly doing the rounds, with substantial societal immunity built up over the years so not that many people get it, and a very modest fatality rate.



Nope, I can't see these ending. But I guess we might spend a few years demanding people who go on them vaccinate.

On the subject of cruise ships, I am worried that this is an issue that will never cease to be a problem with the upcoming expected widespread increase of infectious disease with climate change. The cruise ships are like petri dishes spreading them all over the world due to how many people can be infected from one ship de to the amount of time they are on the ship and the different destinations they are in before and after.

Maybe we can work on technology to keep people safer on ships in terms of germ killing ventilation and lighting? Install some of the protections we have in place at the clinic to help reduce some of the spread. I am guessing though that is the best we can do on that front, but it isn't going to be as effective as we would like it to be.

 

[Agema]

The same T cells kill both viruses. There's no reason to believe immunity will be short-lived. The reasons people think it will be short-lived are misguided articles about antibodies and reinfections. From personal experience, immunity is at least 6 months.

It's not about a one rule fits all. In a very simple sense, you have a virus that will replicate at a certain rate (call it A) and an immune system that clears up infection at a certain rate (call it B). If A>B, you may well get sick. If B>A, your body will quickly defeat the infection and you probably won't notice it.

It'll vary from individual to individual. There will be a certain "innate" susceptibility from one person to another in the first place. Then, people with stronger initial infections should usually build up a stronger immunity to combat reinfection (B is higher). Over time, immunity from infection will decline (B will decline) although at rates that may differ from person to person. Also, there are different forms of the SARS-CoV-2: the more different the one you are re-infected by, the less effective your immune response will be (lower B).

And A is of course dependent on the viral load - how badly you were infected: just a few viruses may never really get going and be rapidly suppressed, whereas a lot of viruses may overwhelm the built-up immunity from the previous infection.

This is a much more useful way to think about it than some binary of being immune or not.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

2. What's the estimation of developed countries having the virus under control to the point of being able to go outside without a mask and doing activities like seeing a concert or watching a film in theater?

3. So its already endemic, what's the effort to permanently eradicate this virus to make sure it won't be endemic for generations?

-You can do stuff outdoors very safely as the air naturally disperses the virus and the sun kills it, it's indoors where transmission occurs. There was a study that traced over 7,000 infections and they only traced one back to an outdoors encounter.

-Vaccines and developing normal immunity can stop it from becoming endemic. It depends on how long-lasting immunity is. If it's anything like the previous SARS (and it's pretty similar to it as the same T cells kill both viruses), it will be long-lasting and should be basically gone in a year or so (depending on how fast it naturally infects the population and when vaccines become available that basically speed up that process). The scare articles about antibodies disappearing and reinfections are basically meaningless information to determine how long immunity will last for. Your body isn't producing measles antibodies and if you do get "infected" with measles, you won't get the actual disease.

It's not about a one rule fits all. In a very simple sense, you have a virus that will replicate at a certain rate (call it A) and an immune system that clears up infection at a certain rate (call it B). If A>B, you may well get sick. If B>A, your body will quickly defeat the infection and you probably won't notice it.

It'll vary from individual to individual. There will be a certain "innate" susceptibility from one person to another in the first place. Then, people with stronger initial infections should usually build up a stronger immunity to combat reinfection (B is higher). Over time, immunity from infection will decline (B will decline) although at rates that may differ from person to person. Also, there are different forms of the SARS-CoV-2: the more different the one you are re-infected by, the less effective your immune response will be (lower B).

And A is of course dependent on the viral load - how badly you were infected: just a few viruses may never really get going and be rapidly suppressed, whereas a lot of viruses may overwhelm the built-up immunity from the previous infection.

This is a much more useful way to think about it than some binary of being immune or not.

I understand that, that's why I said the reinfection occurrences don't mean very much. Generally most people will be "immune" to it after a 1st infection, which obviously doesn't mean they won't get another infection, but they won't get the disease again. As long as your immune system remembers how to kill it, you should basically be immune. I realize there's exceptions, everyone's body is different and whatnot, much like how everyone's computers all have software/hardware differences and why 1 of like 1,000 people experiences a certain glitch or bug. We would be seeing massive numbers of reinfections/re-disease again if immunity only lasted a few months, which the scare articles like to imply.

 

[stroopwafel]

It's not about a one rule fits all. In a very simple sense, you have a virus that will replicate at a certain rate (call it A) and an immune system that clears up infection at a certain rate (call it B). If A>B, you may well get sick. If B>A, your body will quickly defeat the infection and you probably won't notice it.

It'll vary from individual to individual. There will be a certain "innate" susceptibility from one person to another in the first place. Then, people with stronger initial infections should usually build up a stronger immunity to combat reinfection (B is higher). Over time, immunity from infection will decline (B will decline) although at rates that may differ from person to person. Also, there are different forms of the SARS-CoV-2: the more different the one you are re-infected by, the less effective your immune response will be (lower B).

And A is of course dependent on the viral load - how badly you were infected: just a few viruses may never really get going and be rapidly suppressed, whereas a lot of viruses may overwhelm the built-up immunity from the previous infection.

This is a much more useful way to think about it than some binary of being immune or not.

Isn't it true though that recovery from a bad flu infection also puts macrophages at much higher alert which becomes slower to react with a flu vaccine because lymphocytes already short-circuited the antibodies. The immune system as such will be quicker to react to other, unknown viruses because of that more robust immune response. That also follows the evolutionary route since ofcourse humans have been selected for immunity. The plague bacteria for example changed European genetics. With all these modern interventions and low exposure to pathogens it's no surprise auto-immunity disorders have become so prevalent in the developed world. Both these things just show how we are part of that same environment. Viruses in particular could be considered the canvas on which life is drawn.

 

[ralfy]

I was disappointed that countries didn't get to yell at China for the virus. Lets face it, a lot of viruses come from that place, so if they want to be part of the global economy, then they need to have better health guidelines. Yes, of course the vaccine is being worked on and it might come out at the end of this year or next year. Experts are saying there is a good chance the Chinese virus will be endemic since people refuse to stay indoor.

I think one reason is that traces of the virus were found in sewer and blood samples in different countries collected weeks or months before the pandemic started.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Just for reference sake, how many car crashes were ever misattributed to COVID in the UK?

1 more than there should have been at least lol.

 

[Trunkage]

1 more than there should have been at least lol.

So, you're making a giant hullabaloo over one mistake? Because I thought it was one, and all I seeing is that someone made a mistake there. Not that the whole system is broken

 

[Dalisclock]

So, you're making a giant hullabaloo over one mistake? Because I thought it was one, and all I seeing is that someone made a mistake there. Not that the whole system is broken

It's a Conspiracy, man! Covid is being overhyped by The WHO and the Bilderburg group are gonna make us all take fake COVID vaccines filled with nanomachines to broadcast NPR into our brains so we eat less beef so we're more likely to vote Democrat and give more money to Doctors.

It's insidious!

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

So, you're making a giant hullabaloo over one mistake? Because I thought it was one, and all I seeing is that someone made a mistake there. Not that the whole system is broken

no because it's a symptom of a larger issue that any death is being attributed to Covid just because the person had Covid when they died. It's been 1 car crash that's known about but there have been others from other things too.

 

[Dalisclock]

no because it's a symptom of a larger issue that any death is being attributed to Covid just because the person had Covid when they died. It's been 1 car crash that's known about but there have been others from other things too.

Fun theory. Got proof of that deaths were being attributed to COVID but COVID wasn't a significant factor in their demise?

Or is this gonna be a lot of hair splitting about how COVID was actively making them sick but the real killer was XYZ and Doctors can't tell the difference/are lying about it because there's a triangle on the money?