Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)]

Well we got about a day before election day so we might as well have a thread up.

All I have to say is I don't think I've ever been more scared of the results of an election. Not so much of the results but what people's reactions are going to be, day after election day is going to be a circus and a burning fire.

Let us watch together people.

 

[Iron]

Both sides will not accept a defeat. It's up to you Americans to decide whether you'd like to keep the peace or not. Florida 2004 will pale in comparison to what is to come.

 

[dreng3]

Barring any messing around from the administration the results most likely won't be fully in for a good couple of days.

 

[Silvanus]

I'm gonna stay up to watch the coverage/results tomorrow night (since I'm in the UK, this means probably staying up all night).

I'm well aware that final results may not come in for days, or even a couple of weeks*, but we should at least have some pretty reliable early tallies by the end of tomorrow night.

*(Presuming Trump doesn't follow through with his despicable threat to stop all counting after 3rd November, regardless of whether ballots were posted on time or not).

 

[stroopwafel]

Something tells me Trump is going to win again. People aren't honest with polls.

 

[Silvanus]

Something tells me Trump is going to win again. People aren't honest with polls.

Peoples' dishonesty with polls usually doesn't stretch beyond about 3-4% at most. It didn't in 2016.

 

[Buyetyen]

I expect things to get ugly no matter which way it goes. Trump will not willingly accept a loss and nor will his cultists.

 

[Tireseas]

Peoples' dishonesty with polls usually doesn't stretch beyond about 3-4% at most. It didn't in 2016.

The polls in 2016 were also fairly accurate. People just over-relied on them to predict the outcome.

 

[SilentPony]

I expect things to get ugly no matter which way it goes. Trump will not willingly accept a loss and nor will his cultists.

I fully expect blood in the streets and an existential crisis on if the Government and Nation survive.

 

[Trunkage]

I'm gonna stay up to watch the coverage/results tomorrow night (since I'm in the UK, this means probably staying up all night).

I'm well aware that final results may not come in for days, or even a couple of weeks*, but we should at least have some pretty reliable early tallies by the end of tomorrow night.

*(Presuming Trump doesn't follow through with his despicable threat to stop all counting after 3rd November, regardless of whether ballots were posted on time or not).

We had an election on Saturday. By Sunday morning, only about 60% of the votes had been counted. 7 seats were still up in the air

You know what didn't happen? Some numpty who clearly doesnt understand who politics or election works lies in the media about how vote counting works, creating chaos.

 

[Gergar12]

I am hedged for both sides, if Antifa comes, I will just show them my Biden sign, and if Trump's militias come I will just show them my MAGA hat, and I know the Trump supporter lingo enough.
That's my soft defenses, I also have planned other contingencies including self-defense.

Also, my governor may be a bit of a jerk who hates abortion rights, renewable energy, and a whole host of establishment conservative things, but when confronted with protests downtown over George Floyd's death, he simply closed down the highways leading to downtown, if it were something else it would be legal, but If I were a constitutional scholar or an Americanist I would argue it's unconstitutional to stop people from going to protests since it's a first amendment right. But hey it worked, so I am pretty sure he would be able to counter any riots or ethnic cleansing in the suburbs.

As for people in Portland especially the suburbs, you better arm yourself, or something because Mordor is coming.

 

[Trunkage]

As for people in Portland especially the suburbs, you better arm yourself, or something because Mordor is coming.

Yeah. Preppers/3%ers last year taking state legislature members so they can't votes and stop laws was crazy. It's gonna get nuts

 

[CM156]

I do not think it is mathematically feasible for Trump to win at this point.
But if he does, I do expect violence.

I also expect violence if Biden wins. I saw a group of Qboomers protesting not too long ago, and I worry what they're going to do.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Peoples' dishonesty with polls usually doesn't stretch beyond about 3-4% at most. It didn't in 2016.

The only Polls that predicted Trumps win in 2016 and not as some outside chance of 4%-30% chance have been predicting a Trump landslide.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

I fully expect blood in the streets and an existential crisis on if the Government and Nation survive.

Well that happened when Trump won. Well that + people being set on fire and a burned limo.

Yes, a person was set on fire technically. luckily it wasn't serious

 

[Avnger]

The only Polls that predicted Trumps win in 2016 and not as some outside chance of 4%-30% chance have been predicting a Trump landslide.

Please share these polls with the class? Especially ones showing a "Trump landslide."

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Please share these polls with the class? Especially ones showing a "Trump landslide."

Some I've found checking about

The Democracy Institute for the UK

Trump crows over new poll predicting landslide victory in November

Previous polls have put Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the lead, but the new results show Donald Trump scoring heavily among

nation.com.pk

Moody's analytics

Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that

President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of...

www.marketwatch.com

Norpath's primary model

Model that predicted 5 of past 6 presidential elections has Trump in 2020 by 'landslide'

Professor's model 'a leading indicator' of November results

justthenews.com

Coal Region Canary

Our Early Presidential Election Prediction: Trump 330, Biden 208 - Coal Region Canary

See our Oct. 18 prediction: The Canary’s Latest Election Prediction: Trump 338, Biden 200 We’ll surely get mail on this one but on Nov. 3, we’re predicting a landslide victory for President Donald Trump. Now, for our projections below, they’re purely made up out of thin air. That’s to say we got...

coalregioncanary.com

Express Opinion Poll

'Trump landslide!' Poll backs US President to defy polls to beat Biden

DONALD TRUMP will defy the opinion polls and be returned to power after next Tuesday's US Presidential elections, according to an Express.co.uk poll.

www.express.co.uk

The less Scientific Cookie Poll

In a Wisconsin Cookie Poll, Trump Wins by a Landslide

“We’ve never seen anything like it,” says the owner of Uncle Mike’s Bake Shoppe, which has been selling cookies decorated with the faces of Presidential candidates since 2008.

www.newyorker.com

I personally doubt we'll see an landslide either way on this but hey just pointing out there are lots of different polls out there.

 

[Silvanus]

Some I've found checking about

The Democracy Institute for the UK

This is the only link which refers to any actual polling of American people, and far from showing a "landslide", it has Trump winning by 1%, in a survey of 1,500.

Moody's analytics

Norpath's primary model

Coal Region Canary

None of these three are actually polls; they're predictions based on algorithms applied to various bits of data. They didn't actually ask anyone.

Express Opinion Poll

'Trump landslide!' Poll backs US President to defy polls to beat Biden

DONALD TRUMP will defy the opinion polls and be returned to power after next Tuesday's US Presidential elections, according to an Express.co.uk poll.

www.express.co.uk

Uhrm... that was a poll run on The Daily Express website. The Daily Express being a very right-wing UK tabloid newspaper with very small circulation and almost no American readership.

So really, you only actually have the Democracy Institute one, and it's not even very robust: small sample size, very small lead.

 

[Avnger]

Snippy

You have absolutely no ability to vet sources, do you?

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Moody's Analytics casts Trump as the underdog: https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update

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Coal Region Canary uses this as their "methodology":

Methodology
As noted above, we’re going purely on gut feeling with our prediction. But at least we’re not using biased polling.

The truth about those polls is just about anyone can come up with numbers that at least seem true. You can predict, based on previous elections, how races are going to turn out before they happen. Adjust a number up or down for weeks leading up to the Election and you’ve just created some engaging content.

But rather than just spew out numbers drawn from mid-air, we’ll give a little reasoning behind our prediction.

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Norpath is using an algorithm for sunspots with zero input from any data remotely connected with the presidential election. http://primarymodel.com/2020-1

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The Express Opinion poll is an open-invitation online "Who do you think is going to win" questionnaire.

But an exclusive Express.co.uk poll found 83 percent (1,833 people) thought Mr Trump would emerge victorious in the race for the White House.

Just 14 percent (338 people) thought Mr Biden would be voted in on Tuesday while 3 percent (58 people) said they didn't know.

A total of 2,229 people took part in the online poll which ran from 9am until 5pm on Sunday November 1.

One reader said: "Let's hope Americans vote like we did. Trump landslide."

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A cookie poll from a single location in Wisconsin doesn't need comment.

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Democracy Institute for the UK couldn't put together a poll with more of a bias towards Trump if it tried... Simply look at their questions (bottom of linked page). https://democracyinstitute.org/poll...us-presidency-by-electoral-college-landslide/

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

As I said different polls say different things and I could probably go through a lot of the "Trump is certain to lose polls" and find faults like say they only bothered to sample in the Portland arts area districts or it was all done via twitter link sharing or some other such stuff.

As I said I doubt it will be a landslide either way and don't take the polls as gospel