It's fine, we've turned the recieving port county into a giant car park/toilet-based theme park extravaganza.
Did you miss BREXIT now that it is technically done ?
- Thread starter Satinavian
- Start date
The UK has pretty much said that if the worst comes to the worst, it simply will not make border checks: stuff can just roll straight on through once it gets to Dover. (I'll bet the people traffickers and illegal immigrants are excited by this.)
However, this doesn't actually work quite as easily as it seems - because of course trucks also need to get back to the mainland continent (and chances are many of them do routes where they pick UK produce up for the return journey). If the EU are maintaining checks, any truck that makes it to the UK gets stuck there for an extended period. That's why Kent is going to be the world's largest lorry park and al fresco toilet (Kent voted Brexit, how I will laugh at them facing those consequences of their vote). As you say, they may be able to bodge some solution, but I wouldn't bet on it being more than partial mitigation.
I already said, GB stays in NCTS even in case of no deal.
NCTS is a framework that is already in place that allows to skip all border checks. A Lorry transporting NCTS freight can cross the border unchecked legally. It only has to wait at its destination until Customs give the OK that it can be unloaded without an additional check. Which usually is given.
The transport has to be sealed and there is some paperwork involved but not even that much.
By now all future GB exporters should have an EORI number for filing and the preparations for NCTS done. Those preparations never really depended on the outcome of the negotiations.
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You still need to prepare the paperwork of the transit document in advance and the recipient has to sign off on the document at the designated customs point after clearance and then sent back and filed at customs. It's a similar situation as Switzerland. It just allows for import duties to be payed at a later date. Or be cleared for bonded warehouse in case of transshipment. If you have European VAT number you have an EORI number but ofcourse the British ones are no longer valid.
You can indeed ship with NCTS code but in my experience this is only advisable with reliable suppliers in the industrial economy that understand customs procedures or mediate through a broker. Not signing off on the transit document can lead to back charges of import duties for example, and additional fines. Not really something you want when the import was intended for transshipment that is already on it's way to ie Middle East.
You really need to know your way around these procedures to not make costly mistakes.
Cosplaying Supermarket Sweep in just my Union Jack underpants, pretending old ladies are pedestrians in GTA.
But the government is telling me not to panic buy. And they've got such a good record getting things right this year...
Trade deal agreed.
It's "good" news for the UK, in the sense that it means its GDP is only going to be about 7% lower by 2030 instead of upwards of 10%. I'm guessing no EU members, nor the UK parliament, are going to shoot it down given how much trouble it has caused.
In terms of the general character, it's a weak sauce deal. As far as I can see, the main accomplishment of the UK government has effectively been to claim it has "taken back control" by mostly not exercising that control. By which I mean it is de facto accepting things like EU regulations and fishing quotas, but retaining the right to pull out at some point in the future with appropriate notice periods: triggers which I think we all know it probably won't pull, lest it shoot itself in the foot. (If it had ever wanted to pull out, it wouldn't have negotiated a deal in the first place.) In a sense, however, it is important as this is a real ability, not just cosmetic, and it at least retains plenty of flexibility.
I suspect if anything the next ten years is more likely to involve the UK opting back into European schemes rather than diverging. I wonder if it has pulled out of plenty of such programs because it lacked the bureaucratic bandwidth to assess them in the time available. Consequently it has pulled out to avoid any ties, and will see how things go and mull them over at more leisure.
It's "good" news for the UK, in the sense that it means its GDP is only going to be about 7% lower by 2030 instead of upwards of 10%. I'm guessing no EU members, nor the UK parliament, are going to shoot it down given how much trouble it has caused.
In terms of the general character, it's a weak sauce deal. As far as I can see, the main accomplishment of the UK government has effectively been to claim it has "taken back control" by mostly not exercising that control. By which I mean it is de facto accepting things like EU regulations and fishing quotas, but retaining the right to pull out at some point in the future with appropriate notice periods: triggers which I think we all know it probably won't pull, lest it shoot itself in the foot. (If it had ever wanted to pull out, it wouldn't have negotiated a deal in the first place.) In a sense, however, it is important as this is a real ability, not just cosmetic, and it at least retains plenty of flexibility.
I suspect if anything the next ten years is more likely to involve the UK opting back into European schemes rather than diverging. I wonder if it has pulled out of plenty of such programs because it lacked the bureaucratic bandwidth to assess them in the time available. Consequently it has pulled out to avoid any ties, and will see how things go and mull them over at more leisure.
By Tory rhetoric, yes. Although turns out the UK does have real options...
The UK secured probably one major success, which was the right to give generous business subsidies as part of wider national industrial strategy. The agreement between the two is that the UK and EU would look at subsidies regularly, and if it was deemed the UK was generating unfair economic advantages over EU firms, the EU could apply tariffs where relevant. The other minor apparent success for the UK is that it has achieved some sort of negotiation access in terms of regulatory alignment. Essentially that the EU cannot arbitrarily apply tariffs or restrictions if it deems the UK in breach with diverging standards: instead the EU and UK will periodically review and discuss things, with the option of stronger action if they cannot find agreement. In both cases, of course, the EU gets what it wants too, which is the ability to prevent the UK from abusing its beneficial market access whilst undercutting EU firms with unfair state support or deregulation. The EU concessions are therefore to talk before it shoots.
The big benefits of these to the UK are that - I think - the UK could potentially use the benefits of subsidies and lower regulations in terms of non-EU sales, just accepting it would have restrictions or tariffs with the EU on those products. The obvious caveat is that nations like the USA are not going to accept trade deals where the UK can subsidise its industries to their disadvantage either: thus they'll have exactly the same sorts of clauses - so this might be a lot less globally useful than it seems on the surface.
Finally, as far as I can see, as I suggested above I think quite a few cans have been kicked down the road so expect plenty more negotiations in the coming years.
Well, credit where credit is due: I did not expect them to finalize a trade deal, so good on them for managing it on time.
Whether it delivered what the British population wanted and if it was a good deal/good deal given the circumstances I won't comment on; I am sure there are several thoughtful opinions on it.
Whether it delivered what the British population wanted and if it was a good deal/good deal given the circumstances I won't comment on; I am sure there are several thoughtful opinions on it.
If we learn anything from the fact that the referendum was won on the basis of maintaining an extremely close relationship with the EU and yet ended up with half the country accepting close to no deal at all, I think the clearest answer is that the British public had no fucking idea what they wanted - except of course to leave the EU.
I'm willing to bet they won't even be very happy about it in the end, when the full weight of inconveniences (and probable job losses) start biting.
Well, interesting point. The EU has for at least 30 years been a general dustbin of blame by British politicians and media for what is in truth mostly their own fault. Now that the UK's "taken back control" (whatever the fuck that is), the moral and intellectual pygmies who run this country have to start taking more responsibility or find a new scapegoat. My guess is the latter.
You know there is Trumpers who are in hospital with COVID who swear they don't have COVID because Trump told them it didn't exist.
Dont think that facts are going to get in the way of them blaming anyone else other than Brexiteers
Well, it's certainly true that the public can blame the Brexiter politicians. It's a nice, easy way to dodge their own responsibility.
Nor do I suspect it will translate much into election votes. Brexit is a hardline Tory project, but the Tories have a teflon-like nature such that if it turns sour, they'll ditch Boris and co. and pack them off to the backbenches (and likely from there early retirement from politics to take up deliciously well-paid private sector jobs) and pretend it was just some weird aberration... but here there are, back for business again! And the public likely as not will mostly swallow it.
The Tory press will back them up. After all, if Brexit turns sour, it's their fuck-up too and they aren't going to admit they sold the public a duff policy and they certainly aren't going to back Labour. So they'll sell whatever excuses they can grasp as well.
Brexiteers also advertised Brexit as a solution to the immigrant issue as it would give the UK control over its borders again. Blaming immigrants would be admitting Brexit failed to deliver what it was promised to?
True, but isn't ignoring what was promised as the result of Brexit a given anyway?