Activision to Spend $500 Million to Develop and Market Destiny

[Something Amyss]

Halo 3 sold between 14 and 15 million copies, so its hard to say. The catch is I think they had them bundled with 360's for awhile too and that seems to be a trend with a lot of the really big selling games.
.

I don't count pack-ins, and normally they aren't counted. Alan Wake sold poorly for example, unless you counted the pack-ins, which they didn't. They touted Halo 3 Pack-ins, however.

I mean, if they bundled in Destiny, that would probably help them reach their goal. But then, I'm not sure those numbers put quite as much money in Activision's pockets, so it may still increase the number needed.

 

[Something Amyss]

Yeah, and screw the developers too, huh? They don't need to get paid at all.

The developers get paid for making the game. This is completely irrelevant.

 

[Vegosiux]

Dear Activision,

Trying to hype up the game with saying how much you're going to spend on its marketing makes me despise you even more than I've despised you so far, and that's quite a feat.

Sincerely,
Vegosiux

 

[MrHide-Patten]

I want this to tank so hard, sorry to all the good guys at Bungie and the people passionate about this, but holy fucking shit, Rockstar spent HALF of that on GTA IV. Even then that was a stupid crazy amount despite they made that money back in spades.

But ya missing something from your brilliant equation Bobby; Destiny is a new and unproven IP.

Seriously unless they start chucking in F2P micro-transactions (for a pay up front game no less) they will barely make even. I know I'm certainly going to wait before I even dain to give it a cautionary glance, Warfarme's got micro-transactions up the buggery but its still damn free at the end of the day.

 

[Strazdas]

500 million.... yeah. they would need something like 20 million install base minimum, and since thats not possible the only way yo turn profit on that is microtransactions. oh the mictrotransactions they are going to make.
also 10 years? what are you, world of warcraft? even they didnt plan 10 years ahead. Heck, the game is launching for 360 and PS3 and they expect it to last 10 more years? they certainly are mad.

Now I actively hope it fails in a spectacular fashion that sends Activision reeling.

Yeah, and screw the developers too, huh? They don't need to get paid at all. And screw other players as well because if I'm not happy about a game, then no one should be.

they already got paid. developers dont get a cut of the profits. they get paid X money doe developing and everything else is on publishers wallet.
also if developers are as mad as they appear to be here, they dotn deserve to turn profit for notions such as that game will run for 10 years while running on 360.

Seriously though, it doesn't even look that great. I've seen better animation in previous gen games.

Its going to release on both PS3 and 360. IT IS a previuos gen game.

Yet games like Grant Theft Auto 5 did just fine without the PC. So... that's a thing.

GTA would have done fine even if instaed of a disc in a boc it would have been buffalo shit in there. The name alone was worth those 2 billions. Destiny on the other hand has no name for itself at all.

Here's a list of the most expensive games ever made: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Most_expensive_video_games

You may notice how few of them were made in the past 10 years.

oh yes, 3 games with budget that reaches that only a fter adjusting for inflation is certainly proof that game developement is getting cheaper.

 

[theNater]

Actually concerning the Jimquisition...
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/7340-Guns-Blazing
This comes pretty close.

There was also another episode, (can't remember which), where Jim explains that just asking for millions of sales isn't going to get millions of sales.

I suspect you're thinking of this one: http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/7121-Dark-Souls-and-Dark-Sales

The upshot: Do identify your audience, then budget your game to match. Don't budget your game, then hope to get a big enough audience to match.

 

[Nixou]

Activision CEO Bobby Kotick has revealed that the publisher intends to spend $500 million in developing and promoting Bungie's sci-fi shooter Destiny

And that is why the AAA business model is not sustainable and will keep on killing studios in the coming years.

 

[ghalleon0915]

All I can say is...wow. That is a lot of money to throw at a new IP, jeebus.

I can't help but wonder, if their pre-order figures aren't quite up to their estimates ( I would imagine something akin to GTA V's pre-order figures) what steps they would take to try and crank up the hype for it. If any, of course. I suppose we should all prepare for a marketing blitz very soon, which I guess has started with the EBgames/Gamestop pre-order things.

Still, 500 million...imagine what one could do with that. Mindboggling how much money Activision has, Capcom must be green with envy.

 

[Metadigital]

oh yes, 3 games with budget that reaches that only a fter adjusting for inflation is certainly proof that game developement is getting cheaper.

Look at the dates on those games. Most of the games made after the year 2000 are near the bottom of the list, whereas the ones near the top are from the 80's and early 90's (including the top 3 that you mention).

Also, if one is going to claim that a game is the "most expensive ever made", then they should definitely adjust for inflation.

I'm just pointing out that this is not the most expensive game ever made and that games are not getting more expensive to make. They were the most expensive when you had to build arcade cabinets and physical units, but many today are simply downloaded digitally through services like Xbox Live and Steam. This cuts costs dramatically.

 

[Alcamonic]

Good thing they didn't bother releasing it for PC. Chances are it would only be pirated anyway!

...

...

...

I know it's an MMO. That's the joke.

 

[CloudAtlas]

This game is more like Borderlands with a persistent world, now the thing is Borderlands 2 did fairly well but not $500 million well. Is there such a huge market for a game like this? No idea but as you say its a big risk, it is deferred somewhat by the fact the technology they developed will be used for years to come though. Things like the engine and network infrastructure and code could outlast this entire console generation.

I think there absolutely is the market for a game like Destiny. Whether Destiny will be this game, I am not sure. But I wish Destiny all the best, as I am not aware there's anything like it in development right now.

500 millions is a pretty big figure though. Destiny may surprise me yet, but from what I've seen so far it does not look as bold, as unique as I hoped it to be. And not like they spent that much money on stuff like AI, visuals, level design, or art design.

 

[J Tyran]

This game is more like Borderlands with a persistent world, now the thing is Borderlands 2 did fairly well but not $500 million well. Is there such a huge market for a game like this? No idea but as you say its a big risk, it is deferred somewhat by the fact the technology they developed will be used for years to come though. Things like the engine and network infrastructure and code could outlast this entire console generation.

I think there absolutely is the market for a game like Destiny. Whether Destiny will be this game, I am not sure. But I wish Destiny all the best, as I am not aware there's anything like it in development right now.

500 millions is a pretty big figure though. Destiny may surprise me yet, but from what I've seen so far it does not look as bold, as unique as I hoped it to be.

There is a market sure but this big a market? Unlikely, very unlikely. Borderlands 2 sold somewhere around 9 million copies, the biggest and most subscribed to MMO ever managed a peak of 14 million subscribers and the next largest MMOs managed around the 2 million mark.

Many MOBAs might have justified this kind of investment in the level of income they have generated (if anyone had been mad enough), gambling this much on a shooter that will need to attract FPS & MMO players in Call of Duty numbers? Well thats another ball game entirely, still the engine and other resources developed for Destiny will be useful and worthwhile.

 

[BrotherRool]

Watch this magic trick. I'm about to justify (kind of) Activision's decision.

Activision have a pile of money and the two biggest games in the business that make money (CoD and WoW). What they don't have is a reliable franchise for the future, people have been predicting that CoD is finally looking shaky and WoW has been steadily shedding subscribers for years.

So Activision need the next franchise that is going to bank them small countries every year. Investing in MMOs looks like a bad idea and there's no reason to suspect the next big thing won't be a shooter. Certainly no reason to bet Wales on.

There are literally only two companies in the world who you could entrust your future to, as far as shooters go. Infinity Ward (now Respawn) and Bungie. They are by far and away the most successful developers of shooters and you can't give all your money to anyone less than a safe bet. And of those two there was absolutely no world in which Respawn was going to work with Activision, never mind giving over control of a new IP. So it had to be Bungie.

But how do you guarantee that a new IP will be the next big thing? Once you've chosen your studio the only thing you can do is throw money at it. And Activision have a lot of money, they just don't have that reliable brand going into the future.

The point is Activision don't care if Destiny makes money. I wouldn't be surprised if they're expecting to lose $250 million on this game. What they want is it to sell at least 8 million and establish itself as the game which everyone is going to play. They aren't betting on Destiny, they're betting on Destiny 2, 3 and 4. That's what this money is paying for.


...I still think it's incredibly foolhardy. I don't know if Bungie have proven themselves to be the kind of developer who can really pull this off. But I can make a case for why they're doing it.

 

[CloudAtlas]

There is a market sure but this big a market? Unlikely, very unlikely. Borderlands 2 sold somewhere around 9 million copies, the biggest and most subscribed to MMO ever managed a peak of 14 million subscribers and the next largest MMOs managed around the 2 million mark.

I disagree. If I had to come up with a game that's appealing to the largest possible gamer audience, I might think of something like Destiny.

Destiny has a grounded SciFi setting with some space magic and post-apocalyptic elements. Done right such a setting can be appealing to a large number of large fandoms, like Star Wars, Halo, or Mass Effect. Destiny's core gameplay is an FPS, probably the most popular of all genres. If they offer both good PvE content as well as PvP content, with small and medium scale (with vehicles) PvP, about every shooter fan can be able to do what he enjoys in Destiny. Destiny's RPG elements could draw in even more people, from the RPG crowd, and it's kinda-sorta MMO nature draw in MMO fans... which is a very popular genre itself. With, arguably, a very large untapped potential - all the people who want to play something really different from WoW but can't. Its post apocalyptic elements could draw in people who like that sort of stuff.
If you can fly around in space ships a bit, then you'll have even more. Its general art style is not truly unique, not really divisive in any way either.

Now as I said, whether Destiny will offer all that, and do so really really well, I don't know. But it could. Or at least it could have.

And easily justify a 500 mio $ investment too.

 

[Vigormortis]

Half-a-fucking-billion dollars, and yet they can't be arsed to make a PC build because it's "too much work"...

Yeah, fuck you Bungie. I was a fan of you once, but you've shown what colossal twats you are. At this point, even if you get around to whipping together some half-assed, buggy port for PC, I've no interest in playing Destiny anymore.

 

[J Tyran]

There is a market sure but this big a market? Unlikely, very unlikely. Borderlands 2 sold somewhere around 9 million copies, the biggest and most subscribed to MMO ever managed a peak of 14 million subscribers and the next largest MMOs managed around the 2 million mark.

I disagree. If I had to come up with a game that's appealing to the largest possible gamer audience, I might think of something like Destiny.

Destiny has a grounded SciFi setting with some space magic and post-apocalyptic elements. Done right such a setting can be appealing to a large number of large fandoms, like Star Wars, Halo, or Mass Effect. Destiny's core gameplay is an FPS, probably the most popular of all genres. If they offer both good PvE content as well as PvP content, with small and medium scale (with vehicles) PvP, about every shooter fan can be able to do what he enjoys in Destiny. Destiny's RPG elements could draw in even more people, from the RPG crowd, and it's kinda-sorta MMO nature draw in MMO fans... which is a very popular genre itself. With, arguably, a very large untapped potential - all the people who want to play something really different from WoW but can't. Its post apocalyptic elements could draw in people who like that sort of stuff.
If you can fly around in space ships a bit, then you'll have even more. Its general art style is not truly unique, not really divisive in any way either.

Now as I said, whether Destiny will offer all that, and do so really really well, I don't know. But it could. Or at least it could have.

And easily justify a 500 mio $ investment too.

Thats just wishes and unicorns though, when you look at the evidence and past trends it just doesn't match that level of optimism at all. There are games around like Hawken, Planetside 2, Blacklight Retribution and none of them have even drawn a fraction of the amount of players Destiny will need to pay off (as a game itself). Arguably all them put together have not, trying to spread a game across genres doesn't create success at all and often does the opposite.

The way every FPS thats tried to beat CoD and every MMO that has tried to beat WoW has failed (in those goals anyway) over the last 6-7 years its hard to imagine this changing anything, not that I think Destiny will be a bad game at all I just cannot see it being worth that level of investment or blind optimism.

 

[teamcharlie]

Whelp. As somebody who actively enjoys the FPS genre, I...yeah, still wont play this one until such a time as it comes out on PC. Great work, Activision! Seriously though, I've always found the mouse and keyboard to be a much better interface than a console controller for shooters. Sigh.

 

[Reaper195]

but...it just looks like a three player Borderlands MMO....? Of the small amount of universe detail that Bungie are telling people, it doesn't sound very interesting either.

 

[CloudAtlas]

Thats just wishes and unicorns though, when you look at the evidence and past trends it just doesn't match that level of optimism at all. There are games around like Hawken, Planetside 2, Blacklight Retribution and none of them have even drawn a fraction of the amount of players Destiny will need to pay off (as a game itself). Arguably all them put together have not, trying to spread a game across genres doesn't create success at all and often does the opposite.

The way every FPS thats tried to beat CoD and every MMO that has tried to beat WoW has failed (in those goals anyway) over the last 6-7 years its hard to imagine this changing anything, not that I think Destiny will be a bad game at all I just cannot see it being worth that level of investment or blind optimism.

I'm just saying that "a game like Destiny" has the potential to sell more than 15 million copies. Easily. Now wether Destiny will actually sell that many copies, whether it will realize this potential, that remains to be seen, of course.

As I said, I'm neither overly enthusiastic nor overly pessimistic, but of course my guess is as good as anyone's. Betting that much money on Destiny strikes me as a bold move, certainly, but who knows, maybe it pays off.

 

[marioandsonic]

...Uh...wow.

That's...a lot of money.

I wonder if Jim Sterling's going to produce an episode about this. I mean, 15-16 million units? XBOne and PS4 sales combined haven't even reached that number!

Yes, I know it's also supposed to be on the PS3 and 360, but...god damn.