Analyst Predicts 3 Million Kinects Shipped This Year

[Logan Westbrook]

Analyst Predicts 3 Million Kinects Shipped This Year

How well will Kinect do? One analyst thinks he knows.

Colin Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, is predicting that Microsoft will ship three million units of its new motion controller Kinect [http://www.gamestop.com/gs/natal/] in 2010. "With the Kinect motion sensor, games will initially include fitness, dance, sports and kart racing, suggesting that Microsoft is targeting the Wii audience," said Sebastian.

"Microsoft is planning for a global release of Kinect in November (price point TBD), with 15 titles available at launch. We expect roughly 3M units of Kinect to ship worldwide in CY10, with Microsoft selling Kinect on its own or as part of a hardware bundle."

Is Sebastian right in his predictions? I honestly have no idea, and I'm not going to try and pretend that I know better than a financial analyst. How well Kinect will do depends on so many different factors, I wouldn't even like to guess. Marketing is going to make a big difference, as is price, and at this early stage, those elements are missing.

Source: VG247 [http://www.vg247.com/2010/06/17/anaylst-microsoft-will-ship-3-million-kinects-this-year/]







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[Hiphophippo]

That is unbelievably far and beyond what I personally predict.

 

[Jack and Calumon]

And in which Plain of Existence does he believe that his will happen? Honestly, I can barely even see 30'000 being shipped if the price is what it is rumoured to be. I'll save my money for the INEVITABLY expensive 3DS.

Calumon: And I'll have some cake. ^^

 

[tehroc]

If it controls my netflix I might buy. If it doesn't not a chance in hell.

 

[WrongSprite]

"With the Kinect motion sensor, games will initially include fitness, dance, sports and kart racing, suggesting that Microsoft is targeting the Wii audience," said Sebastian.

How much does he get paid? Because I could have told you that.

 

[zombie711]

That the same number I picked but times a million

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

That's numbers shipped. Numbers actually sold will be much lower.

 

[Rack]

2,999,836 Kinect sitting in warehouses by the end of the year then?

 

[VulakAerr]

And one of them will be miiiiiiiiine! All miiiiiiiiiiiiiine! But yeah, no Sports games thankyouverymuch.

 

[yoyo13rom]

2,999,836 Kinect sitting in warehouses by the end of the year then?

Yep, they'll ship, but they won't sell. That's how I see it.(especially if the price is gonna be over 50$)

 

[Zing]

2,999,836 Kinect sitting in warehouses by the end of the year then?

Beat me to the punch!

Honestly who's actually buying this crap?

 

[Xanthious]

Honestly who's actually buying this crap?

I'm sure mimes everywhere are waiting with baited breath for the release of Kinect.

 

[Azmael Silverlance]

i saw this kinetc thing on the news. It looks interesting but...i think we are still some years behind and dont have the tech to make proper games for that thing. So jumping and karting will remain the main source of entertainment for this motion sensor. at least for the next 2-3 years.

 

[Xersues]

Not for $150 as a previous "leak" suggested. The sweet spot will be sub $100, otherwise I'm pretty sure people will just ignore it.

I'd predict at that price, only 1.2m

 

[Zing]

Honestly who's actually buying this crap?

I'm sure mimes everywhere are waiting with baited breath for the release of Kinect.

I lol'd.

But really, what mimes can afford $150? I think it's out of their price range.

 

[TheYellowCellPhone]

2,999,836 Kinect sitting in warehouses by the end of the year then?

The sad truth. Barely anyone will buy a $150 attachment to their $150+ console plus a $50 game to go with it.

 

[cathou]

i wonder why in the world Microsoft want to go after the wii audiance. forget that, most of them are lost forever for microsoft. The average buyer of fitness games are women from 25 to 60 years old that have a wii and a wii balance board, so they have at least already put 300$ to get the hardware, and that does not much gaming beside fitness games.

you really think they will put another 150$ with that promise that her virtual instructor will be HD, and looking more realistic ??

 

[Xennon]

It all depends on the quality of games release with/subsequently made for it. If there is an amazing game that uses the controller perfectly and is a nirvana of gaming experience, then of course the periferal to play that game will sell well.

If all you can do bat balls against a wall and get nekkid in front of total strangers, then it won't sell....... well, maybe the nekkid thing will shift a few units to a limited market

 

[manythings]

I think the problem is with the idea of the target market. If they are aiming for the wii crowd they have a serious problem since those people already have Wiis so why would they buy a slightly different and more expensive (if they don't already have and Xbox) version of what they already own? I'm just curious if there will be an add on to the Kinect that makes it do what they said it would do 3 years from now like the wii attachment.

 

[vallorn]

i saw this kinetc thing on the news. It looks interesting but...i think we are still some years behind and dont have the tech to make proper games for that thing. So jumping and karting will remain the main source of entertainment for this motion sensor. at least for the next 2-3 years.

dont forget the ineviatable rush of shovelware and Wii ports.

the Move might not suffer the same fate as it has sone interesting games at launch (RE5:move and some others i cant be asked to remember). but this is still unlikley.