Analyst Predicts 3 Million Kinects Shipped This Year

[molesgallus]

Escapist news, 6 months from now. 'Kinect sales miss analyst's estimate by 3 million units.'

 

[thethingthatlurks]

Honestly who's actually buying this crap?

I'm sure mimes everywhere are waiting with baited breath for the release of Kinect.

Ooh, an untapped demographic. Well done, Microsoft, well done...
Yeah...I don't buy it, and nor will I buy it. This thing doesn't appeal to any large demographic, unless it now translates your teabagging 1:1 into the game...

 

[pneuma08]

If it sells standalone (as in working without a 360) for $150, I'd imagine it'd sell pretty well. But right now it's just an add-on to a $150-300 console, which brings the total cost up to $300-450. No way is it going to take a sizable chunk out of the Wii's corner of the market at that price (especially since it's competing against the Playstation Move at those prices as well, although the two seem to be targeting different demographics).

Also note well, because units shipped is a different metric than units sold. For what it's worth, the PS3 shipped somewhere in the area of 3M worldwide from November to January of 2006 (I can't seem to find exact numbers; it's a bit of egg on Sony's face, I'd imagine), and we all know how that sold.

 

[luvd1]

And don't forget the really lazy. Can't be asked to find the remote? No need. Just shout at the console. Man, I hope you can change the voice commands so instead of saying "xbox 360,on"to turn it on. I want to say "Oi, wake up you little sod". Nice.

Or set it to something really common on a mate's. Set it so that every time someone says "Awesome" it switches on or off. Let's hope we can abuse this.

Or set it to turn off if someone says halo. "you see. Even the 360 is sick to death with it. Put something else on." the world would be a far better place.

 

[Zing]

All fitness games seem stupid to me. I have a Gym membership for that.

Well I'd rather pay once for Kinect then pay over and over and over again for a Gym Membership. My wife has a gym membership, and she pays about $50 a month. Kinect would pay for itself in less then that amount of time if you consider the gas to get to and from the gym. Not everyone has the luxury of living next door to one. And I like the idea of working out when I want in my home, rather then when I have the time to drive downtown to the gym.

I don't see the point in standing there with my arms out in front of me using an invisible steering wheel, it just seems like a gimmick, and I can't really play the game for longer then half an hour without killing my arms...

Sounds like you aren't using that gym membership at all!
But seriously, the steering isn't what interested me. It was the looking around corners. That was awesome. So long as they provide a symbiotic controller scheme (Use the controller to drive, and Kinect to look around corners), then it will kick ass 5 ways from Sunday. You could add leaning abilities to FPS games, hand-signals to military sims...the possibilities are amazing. And we'll have to see if they take advantage of that.

I only pay 19 bucks a fortnight. But it gets me out of the house, and the Gym has the advantage of heavy weights training that fitness games don't provide.

If Kinect were only used for that it might be great, incorporating it into usage with a controller for mainstream games. But thats not what htey're doing, they're trying to make these mediocre games that utilize only Kinect, which limits the possibilities in my opinion. There's already been a camera released that allows you to control your viewing in the game by moving you head for the PC for a while now. I forget the name but it was cool.

 

[VanityGirl]

If it controls my netflix I might buy. If it doesn't not a chance in hell.

It's supposed to. I saw a video for it in Walmart. :X

I'm getting both a Kinects and Move. I'm a sucker for new technology.
I just gotta start saving! To the bank, AWAY!

 

[Baby Tea]

If Kinect were only used for that it might be great, incorporating it into usage with a controller for mainstream games. But thats not what htey're doing, they're trying to make these mediocre games that utilize only Kinect, which limits the possibilities in my opinion. There's already been a camera released that allows you to control your viewing in the game by moving you head for the PC for a while now. I forget the name but it was cool.

The one for PC costs about $100 and only does head tracking.
The Kinect will be able to do something similar and more.

You're right in that they are making games that only use Kinect, but to assume that that's all they'll do (especially this early) is just wrong. We already know some games will use both conventional controller along with Kinect (Fable 3, for example), so it can absolutely happen. We just have to wait and see if other developers are as forward thinking, which I think they will be.

I won't debate you about the fitness thing, since gyms are a money sink to me.
I own my own weights and would rather save the gas and run outside then inside on a treadmill.
But it's a personal preference. Fitness games obviously aren't for you. I like the idea.

 

[Tiswas]

Most game stores here are charging a tenner to pre-order this thing already. So they're hopeful.

Or they're trying to make money back anyways by the amount of people who pre-order and just not bother with it closer to the time.

 

[Tzekelkan]

I don't get it... they're saying they're going after the Wii users market... but the Wii users already have a Wii. Casual users that already have a Wii (and only a Wii) probably won't want to buy a 360 + Kinect for 450$ just to get an experience they're likely to perceive as very similar to the one already in their living room.

 

[Zing]

If Kinect were only used for that it might be great, incorporating it into usage with a controller for mainstream games. But thats not what htey're doing, they're trying to make these mediocre games that utilize only Kinect, which limits the possibilities in my opinion. There's already been a camera released that allows you to control your viewing in the game by moving you head for the PC for a while now. I forget the name but it was cool.

The one for PC costs about $100 and only does head tracking.
The Kinect will be able to do something similar and more.

You're right in that they are making games that only use Kinect, but to assume that that's all they'll do (especially this early) is just wrong. We already know some games will use both conventional controller along with Kinect (Fable 3, for example), so it can absolutely happen. We just have to wait and see if other developers are as forward thinking, which I think they will be.

I won't debate you about the fitness thing, since gyms are a money sink to me.
I own my own weights and would rather save the gas and run outside then inside on a treadmill.
But it's a personal preference. Fitness games obviously aren't for you. I like the idea.

Honestly, do you really want to move more then your head/arms if you're playing a game for longer then an hour? I know I don't.

 

[Loonerinoes]

If you predict such a number for a product, that is pricey as hell, experimental/gimmicky in its nature moreso than truly mainstream AND in the wake of the depression, then you my friend are simply a fool.

Appropriate video is appropriate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n5E7feJHw0

 

[Baby Tea]

The one for PC costs about $100 and only does head tracking.

"the one for the PC" is primarily marketed to para/quadriplegics. The price tag pays for the device's input being translated into a standardized format, making it fully compatible with any software made in the last 15 years.

The few "gamers" who buy the thing are... morons.

Not really. I watched a video of a guy using it in ArmA 2 with great success.
Looking around while he ran, looking around corners while he flew and drove. It was really handy. And, according to the website, it's marketed to gamers.
As a blurb states:

TrackIR is a new form of input that doesn't affect the mouse, keyboard and joysticks you are already using. Those other inputs are now freed to do the things you'd expect your hands to be doing, completely independent of your new head-tracking view controller.

Sounds like it's primarily marketed to gamers.

 

[Baby Tea]

-snip-

That just makes it sound like adapting and bastardizing preexisting technology few quick bucks from morons.

Or using existing technology to enhance gameplay.
I see it as no more 'stupid' or 'foolish' then a gaming mouse (Which I have, and it rocks my socks).

Honestly, do you really want to move more then your head/arms if you're playing a game for longer then an hour? I know I don't.

If I'm sitting on my couch playing Forza, and driving with my controller and looking around corners with my head/upper body, then I could play for hours and be fine. If I'm playing a FPS game and using my head/upper body to lean around corners, and using my controller for regular controls, then I could play for hours. I probably wouldn't play any full-body motion games without people there to play with, like my wife or something, because the idea of those games just screams 'party games'. But, if I had a bunch of people over, I'd totally play those games.

I'm not arguing about the full-body controls. I'm saying the potential is there for something so much more. You're making the mistake of seeing the Kinect as a controller replacement, while I'm seeing it as controller enhancement. Of course there will be games that only use the Kinect! But there will be games that use both the Kinect and the regular controller, and the idea of something like that sounds freaking awesome to me.

 

[ark123]

I really fail to see how screaming "xbox, right! xbox, click! xbox, click!" is any easier than pressing side-button-button on a remote, but I suppose you spend tons of calories raising your remote hand.

 

[Baby Tea]

Stretching your neck to look around stuff (something I've admittedly done, then felt stupid about), and... yea actually thats the entire extent. Not to mention anything it could do would be more efficiently accomplished with a keybinding or a mouse swing.

Well that's totally false.
Could it be bound to a keyboard button or mouse swing? Maybe (Not so much the mouse swing, since that's being used to change ones facing). But more efficient? No. Not even close. Without taking ones hands off the crucial controls (Like movement), you can lean around corners. Without looking away from where you are aiming, or removing your hands from the crucial controls, you can look quickly to your side.

All with just moving your head. No keybind is more efficient then that. None.
Especially when you consider that a key-stroke is binary. Pressed or not. The IR track is analog.
Huge difference.

You're right about one thing, though. The IR tracker has limited functionality (Even if that function is awesome)
Kinect, however, does not. It can do those things, along with it's own games, apps, and Xbox UI control.