Analyst: Xbox 360 Set to Dominate 2010

[Irridium]

I would be exited for Natal.
If they showed some damn games made for the thing, instead of current games supporting it...

And I doubt that the 360 will dominate.
Mainly because of Heavy Rain and God of War 3.

If anything by the time the year ends the gap seperating the PS3 and 360 will be more like a thin line.

But what do I know, I'm no analyst.

I doubt it. The main problem is, while God of War 3 is big, people wont necessarily buy a console JUST for one game. God of War 3 will be one of the bigger releases for the PS3 this year, but will it cause an shift in the sales of PS3? That depends.

I mean, Mass Effect 2 was a LARGE success, the sales of the game definately proved that.
If God Of War 3 or Heavy Rain's sales are anywhere in the ball park of Mass Effect, I'll change my tune.

You have a point. PS3 exclusived don't have a habit of selling millions of copies. Well except for MGS4.

Plus they haven't really advertized Heavy Rain. Sure there may have been a few adverts on websites, but thats all I've seen.

God of War 3 is still a month off, and its a pretty high profile game, so I'm guessing that they'll advertise it. But then again with Sony at the helm anything can happen.

But yeah, God of War 3 is a pretty big game, and I would be suprised if it sold less than 1 million copies.

 

[Andronicus]

I would be exited for Natal.
If they showed some damn games made for the thing, instead of current games supporting it...

And I doubt that the 360 will dominate.
Mainly because of Heavy Rain and God of War 3.

If anything by the time the year ends the gap seperating the PS3 and 360 will be more like a thin line.

But what do I know, I'm no analyst.

I doubt it. The main problem is, while God of War 3 is big, people wont necessarily buy a console JUST for one game.

Unless it's Japan. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/96995-Final-Fantasy-XIII-Sells-1-5M-Gets-35-Attach-Rate]

Saying the XBox will dominate the market because of Natal, and several big-hit titles, seems a little preemptive in my opinion. I mean, sure, Mass Effect 2 is, you know, pretty good, or so I hear. But assuming that the majority of console owners are going to fork out for a peripheral that, let's face it, we really don't know much about (you move around and the things on the screen do stuff. Big deal. Now tell me why that's so much better than a thumbstick), is a pretty big conjecture.

The PS3 is picking up quite a bit of momentum at the moment. While I'm not about to say that this guy is flat out wrong, I still think the PS3 is going to be making a lot of tracks in the year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it leaves the XBox coughing and weezing in its wake

 

[Pingieking]

*snip*

God of War 3 should sell well, but there's no chance that Heavy Rain will come anywhere close to matching those kind of sales numbers. Even though I'm a Heavy Rain fanboy, I also recognize that the majority of gamers generally don't like different stuff (at least stuff that hasn't been done in the recent past) unless it's hyped as the most awesome thing since sliced bread (on a side note, why is sliced bread awesome?), and there is just too much "different" stuff coming from Heavy Rain.

OT: The X360 does have a fairly good chance of dominating this year, but personally I think it has made a convincing argument for me not to purchase it.
A big part of the Xbox success is the lack of competition. Sony has consistently pulled some MAJOR FAIL for their hardware launches, with the PS3 Slim being the only exception since the PS2 launch. They seem to be repeating that with their motion controls (rumored to be called Arc). Nintendo is doing their Vitality Sensor thing, which looks like even more of a major fail than the Arc. For software, I'd say that Sony is in a better position than MS is. Keeping FF13 exclusivity in Japan scored them big, but the loss of total exclusivity will hurt pretty bad. It's got more exclusives coming than MS does, but a lot of those games are also a lot less mainstream (MAG, Heavy Rain and Last Guardian are anything but mainstream) compared to Halo. Nintendo has promised nothing, but one of their big three (Zelda, Metroid, Mario) should make an appearance this year. However, none of those games are really direct competition to any Xbox games or Natal.
So Xbox looks like they're going to score big this year simply because they've got very little competition pushing against them.

One thing that Sony can do to swing the momentum back a bit: Toss PS2 BC back into the PS3 through a firmware update. They've got nothing to lose now that the PS2 is officially dead, and the PS3 is perfectly capable of handling it. They can then open another section on the PSN for PS2 classics downloads. I'd do anything for the ability to buy Ico off the PSN.

 

[Irridium]

*snip*

God of War 3 should sell well, but there's no chance that Heavy Rain will come anywhere close to matching those kind of sales numbers. Even though I'm a Heavy Rain fanboy, I also recognize that the majority of gamers generally don't like different stuff (at least stuff that hasn't been done in the recent past) unless it's hyped as the most awesome thing since sliced bread (on a side note, why is sliced bread awesome?), and there is just too much "different" stuff coming from Heavy Rain.

Yeah, I know Heavy Rain won't sell all that well.
I just have high hopes.

I just really want it to succeed.

 

[Pingieking]

*snip*

I do too. Haven't seen an emotionally based game since... since...
Well, I've never seen one. Thanks Sony for publishing original games!

EDIT:

Well this muppet hasn't looked at console sale figures which have been behind the PS3 and Wii since the price cuts. Considering GTA DLC is now moving to PS3, and a lot of the "exclusives" are on PC, I reckon this will be the worst year for Xbox - that's what the sale figures for the actual console are pointing to. Plus, he may say Natal may help, but so will Arc, so it's a moot point.

Arc is hardware being released by Sony. That, by definition, means that there's a 90% chance of it having a TOTAL FAIL for a launch; no hype, no publicity (or bad publicity, which is a step up but still not good), and no software support. Plus, the Arc has been delayed until Fall 2010, meaning that it'll go head to head against Natal, which is already being hyped as the best invention of this decade.

But yeah, the fact that X360 exclusives are showing up on PC is basically why I didn't pitch in money when our shared X360 red ringed. With a work/school PC that requires 2 top end video cards (video cards are much better at handling computations involving huge matrices, a must for simulations involving quantum physics) and a PS3, I have access to basically every single game that I might have a slight interest in playing.

 

[Ghonzor]

"Ack! I had so much faith in you until this article. It just seems to scream 'I'm being paid by Microsoft'," said Dave S.


Agreed

 

[Vigilantis]

God of War 3, Heavy Rain, MAG, The Last Guardian and Metal Gear Rising. I don't think the Xbox will dominate, even if it does do well. Seems like not much consideration has gone into this analysis.

Why is Metal Gear Rising in their, unless you weren't trying to name a bunch of PS3 exclusives as MGR is going to the box as well.

But true I don't see the xbox natal making a huge difference this year.

 

[Hunde Des Krieg]

God of War 3, Heavy Rain, MAG, The Last Guardian and Metal Gear Rising. I don't think the Xbox will dominate, even if it does do well. Seems like not much consideration has gone into this analysis.

Why is Metal Gear Rising in their, unless you weren't trying to name a bunch of PS3 exclusives as MGR is going to the box as well.

But true I don't see the xbox natal making a huge difference this year.

MAG so far seems to be getting mediocre reviews.

 

[Eclectic Dreck]

As far as I can tell, an analysts work mainly consists of guessing. Whenever they are mentioned in the news anyway.

Close to it. If analysis of this sort is anything like military intelligence analysis, much of one's predicitons are based off of past performance trends. The gentleman has produced a fairly strong case for the 360 in this regard but this particular article lacks any of the additional information I'd need to make an assertion that the 360 will "dominate". There are full 6 other popular platforms that games are released across and yet no information is given regarding them. The PS3 has gained a degree of momentum in the closing months of the last year for example, and has become a legitimately attractive purchase option for those in the market for a High-Def console. There are a number of titles being released on that platform that are either exclusive or historically have been that can be readily assumed to be huge movers.

Honestly, if you read between the lines, his assertion seems to be that the 360 is going to do better than the last year which seems like a safe enough assertion. Since we are given no perspective regardin the competion it will presumably dominate and the evidence delivered in support represents a narrow slice of time and total game sales, I'd hardly call his case compelling. It is an interesting read regardless of the quality of the analytical process on display however.

 

[Orcus The Ultimate]

maybe, maybe not, we shall see...

here's a link that defy your hypotesis:
http://www.jeuxvideo.com/news/2010/00040317-sony-nous-ne-mettrons-pas-longtemps-a-depasser-la-360.htm

if you don't get it, here's the Google translation:

In the series of small venomous statements that likes, here is Peter Dille, marketing manager at Sony. He said the substantial lead of the Xbox 360 is melting like snow in sunshine, the PS3 should pass it long before it reached the end of life.
"We sold 31 million units worldwide, Microsoft has sold 39. We will not even need to wait until the machine is 10 years. (...) Look where they are and where we are, then they had the opportunity to take a sizeable lead when they launch. (...) We are only a breath behind them and we can already see in their rearview mirror, we should no longer need a long time to overcome them. "
Peter Dille has done a very good distance runner. Anyway, Sony considering 10 years life of the home console market, we can conclude that the PS3 has surpassed the Xbox 360 by 2016.

 

[breadlord]

I can remember back in January '09 where Gamespot claimed that Halo and the 360 will dominate 2009 and many years to come.

They kinda..missed that one from e3 and forward. (Starts to build up flame shield)

 

[dibblywibbles]

if you're relying heavily on the natal for market dominance I think you're destined to fail. and god of war is going to be a sick game and will boost sales of the PS3 bigtime. It will be that big. I'd hate to think they'll drop the ball on this one. Hell I might even buy one because of it. but that's because I have nothing better to spend my tax returns on other than booze drugs and gaming consoles. I still think when all is said and done this year the xbox will come out on top for the simple reason that it its exclusives are going to sell better.

 

[Crimsane]

Read his article, can't help but agree that it comes off sounding like a Microsoft press release.

 

[TimeLord]

they rolled the dice and it came up 11, it must be true

I bet he could roll a 7 on a 6-sided dice if he was paid enough by Microsoft

OT: I wouldn't mind if the 360 became the "dominant" console. As long as the PS3 isn't hampered because of it.

 

[Onyx Oblivion]

Hmmm...I thought this was the Wii's year. Starting off strong with Tatsunoko and No More Heroes 2...

And with a new Metroid...

 

[Programmed_For_Damage]

People keep talking about God of War 3 like it is the second coming of Jesus. It will no doubt sell well on name alone but I reckon Bayonetta and Dante's Inferno will detract some interest from it. I think Bayonetta will actually out-point it. There's nothing I've seen in the God of War 3 previews that hasn't been done before, either by its predecessors or other games. It's simply aiming to titillate with bucketloads of blood.

That said I wouldn't put too much faith in Natal. Yeah it's cool and all but how many people will actually buy it?