Android is the New Windows

[gorfias]

http://www.zdnet.com/android-really-is-the-new-windows-7000007450/?s_cid=e539

Exciting stuff for me. I use Windows rather than Umbuntu for gaming. Some quick numbers suggest Android really is the new Windows.

"Android device sales have an almost 3:2 ratio compared with PC shipments"

Can triple A games be far behind (so far, I really, really hate mobile games... not working for me. I need a controller, etc.)

Will we lose something without windows power? Will developers be so divided that it is hard to develop really great software? Will my desktop one day look like my ASUS tablet?

Your thoughts?

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

I think Sony really had something with the Xperia play, but they botched it by having it compete with their own PSVita, instead of having it /be/ the Vita. I think 10, 20 years down the road, diminishing returns will have hit a point where even for things like gaming, the difference in power between a desktop and a smartphone will be, if not negligible, not worth paying the difference in price and convenience for the average person.

I think what we'll see is android (or similar) phones that connect to your TV through HDMI and game controllers through USB or bluetooth (for entertainment and gaming), and a mouse and keyboard through bluetooth or USB (for productivity). For people who specifically want to game on their phones, there will be units that, like the Xperia Play, have a fold out game controller. For people slighltly less serious about it, you'll be able to get a game controller that goes on your keychain and has a cover that doubles as a stand for your phone (I'm not making that up; it's on Kickstarter right now). When it's time to leave the house, you'll just unplug everything from the phone (or, heck, unplug it from the dock), and take it with you, carrying on with whatever you were doing on the go. In fact, all of this is already possible now, it's just not as usable as a laptop just yet. But it's coming.

 

[Esotera]

Android is a much nicer operating system than Windows, and is used on more homogenous hardware. It's also really easy to develop trivial applications for, so this can only be a good thing.

I don't see Android making much of a dent on existing desktop sales though, which despite the calls of everyone, are going to be used for a very long time to come. Windows has accumulated a lot of useful software that industry can't dispense with, and for a lot of tasks, it makes more sense to sit at a monitor and write something with a keyboard.

 

[MammothBlade]

It may seem a bit unfair to say "used to" there, but it's really not. Microsoft has been very clear that starting with Windows 8, it now wants to control its app ecosystem Apple-style.

*cringe*

If Windows does this with its desktop PROGRAMS(not apps), then I won't bat an eyelid when I decide to move to Linux.

 

[thesilentman]

I don't think it is. OP, you're comparing apples to oranges here. There's no way that Android will have the capabilities of a Windows/Linux/Mac desktop at this point unless Google begins to develop Android for desktops.

It may seem a bit unfair to say "used to" there, but it's really not. Microsoft has been very clear that starting with Windows 8, it now wants to control its app ecosystem Apple-style.

*cringe*

If Windows does this with its desktop PROGRAMS(not apps), then I won't bat an eyelid when I decide to move to Linux.

I'm no MS advocate, but the moment they pull this, the enterprise and business sector will ditch them in a heartbeat. The IT sector more so as there's nothing wrong with them trying to run Red Hat on their servers on the first attempt.

 

[BeerTent]

I don't think it is. OP, you're comparing apples to oranges here. There's no way that Android will have the capabilities of a Windows/Linux/Mac desktop at this point unless Google begins to develop Android for desktops.

Prettymuch this. I highly doubt that Google will develop Android for a PC. However, what has been stated, Apps are the big thing now. Everything needs apps now, and it's been reflected with Win8 that Microsoft is on board with the App thing as something tacked onto the side of the OS. I can see some of their programs, like MSO turn into "apps" but I can't imagine Windows ever putting programs a step below Apps.

In closing, Apps are a big thing now, but Android will never hit a full computer. PDA's, Phones, Players, glasses... Never a full PC.

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

I don't think it is. OP, you're comparing apples to oranges here. There's no way that Android will have the capabilities of a Windows/Linux/Mac desktop at this point unless Google begins to develop Android for desktops.

Prettymuch this. I highly doubt that Google will develop Android for a PC. However, what has been stated, Apps are the big thing now. Everything needs apps now, and it's been reflected with Win8 that Microsoft is on board with the App thing as something tacked onto the side of the OS. I can see some of their programs, like MSO turn into "apps" but I can't imagine Windows ever putting programs a step below Apps.

In closing, Apps are a big thing now, but Android will never hit a full computer. PDA's, Phones, Players, glasses... Never a full PC.

But it doesn't need to. Mark my word, 10, 20 years from now, desktop computers will be used by scientists and... not much else. Laptops will be all but completely gone -- or, more likely, morphed into tablets with optional keyboard attachments. Right now we're seeing first generation docks that have a phone go in on one end, and a mouse, keyboard, speakers, and monitor go out the other, essentially using the phone as a tower. This is something that will only become more common as phones become more powerful. Even for gaming, cell phones are comparable to current consoles and getting more powerful by the day. You can even hook certain models into a TV through HDMI, and pretty much anything up to a game controller through bluetooth or USB. That's going to get easier as time goes by.

And I know, what you're thinking: the fastest phones will never be as fast as the fastest full sized computers. And that's probably true. But we're rapidly approaching a point where diminishing returns will make it so the best phones are close enough to the best computers that, for the price, the phone will be the clear winner, even for things like gaming and CAD work. Especially with the benefit that it fits in your pocket, allowing you to take it with you and continue whatever you're doing on the go, albeit with reduced ergonomics from the full setup you had it plugged into at home.

Or, to pull the discussion back a few decades, why buy a minicomputer when a PC does the job just fine?

 

[thesilentman]

I don't think it is. OP, you're comparing apples to oranges here. There's no way that Android will have the capabilities of a Windows/Linux/Mac desktop at this point unless Google begins to develop Android for desktops.

Prettymuch this. I highly doubt that Google will develop Android for a PC. However, what has been stated, Apps are the big thing now. Everything needs apps now, and it's been reflected with Win8 that Microsoft is on board with the App thing as something tacked onto the side of the OS. I can see some of their programs, like MSO turn into "apps" but I can't imagine Windows ever putting programs a step below Apps.

In closing, Apps are a big thing now, but Android will never hit a full computer. PDA's, Phones, Players, glasses... Never a full PC.

But it doesn't need to. Mark my word, 10, 20 years from now, desktop computers will be used by scientists and... not much else. Laptops will be all but completely gone -- or, more likely, morphed into tablets with optional keyboard attachments. Right now we're seeing first generation docks that have a phone go in on one end, and a mouse, keyboard, speakers, and monitor go out the other, essentially using the phone as a tower. This is something that will only become more common as phones become more powerful. Even for gaming, cell phones are comparable to current consoles and getting more powerful by the day. You can even hook certain models into a TV through HDMI, and pretty much anything up to a game controller through bluetooth or USB. That's going to get easier as time goes by.

And I know, what you're thinking: the fastest phones will never be as fast as the fastest full sized computers. And that's probably true. But we're rapidly approaching a point where diminishing returns will make it so the best phones are close enough to the best computers that, for the price, the phone will be the clear winner, even for things like gaming and CAD work. Especially with the benefit that it fits in your pocket, allowing you to take it with you and continue whatever you're doing on the go, albeit with reduced ergonomics from the full setup you had it plugged into at home.

Or, to pull the discussion back a few decades, why buy a minicomputer when a PC does the job just fine?

The biggest advantage of desktops is the ability to configure it to your liking that extends beyond the abilities of a laptop. As long as that's the case, desktops won't die. Also, Android is an app-based mobile OS. There's a difference between an app and an application in the computer world. So no, while I probably will see Android on a desktop, unless it gets rid of the whole app idea and starts talking about applications, then I'm good.

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

I don't think it is. OP, you're comparing apples to oranges here. There's no way that Android will have the capabilities of a Windows/Linux/Mac desktop at this point unless Google begins to develop Android for desktops.

Prettymuch this. I highly doubt that Google will develop Android for a PC. However, what has been stated, Apps are the big thing now. Everything needs apps now, and it's been reflected with Win8 that Microsoft is on board with the App thing as something tacked onto the side of the OS. I can see some of their programs, like MSO turn into "apps" but I can't imagine Windows ever putting programs a step below Apps.

In closing, Apps are a big thing now, but Android will never hit a full computer. PDA's, Phones, Players, glasses... Never a full PC.

But it doesn't need to. Mark my word, 10, 20 years from now, desktop computers will be used by scientists and... not much else. Laptops will be all but completely gone -- or, more likely, morphed into tablets with optional keyboard attachments. Right now we're seeing first generation docks that have a phone go in on one end, and a mouse, keyboard, speakers, and monitor go out the other, essentially using the phone as a tower. This is something that will only become more common as phones become more powerful. Even for gaming, cell phones are comparable to current consoles and getting more powerful by the day. You can even hook certain models into a TV through HDMI, and pretty much anything up to a game controller through bluetooth or USB. That's going to get easier as time goes by.

And I know, what you're thinking: the fastest phones will never be as fast as the fastest full sized computers. And that's probably true. But we're rapidly approaching a point where diminishing returns will make it so the best phones are close enough to the best computers that, for the price, the phone will be the clear winner, even for things like gaming and CAD work. Especially with the benefit that it fits in your pocket, allowing you to take it with you and continue whatever you're doing on the go, albeit with reduced ergonomics from the full setup you had it plugged into at home.

Or, to pull the discussion back a few decades, why buy a minicomputer when a PC does the job just fine?

The biggest advantage of desktops is the ability to configure it to your liking that extends beyond the abilities of a laptop. As long as that's the case, desktops won't die. Also, Android is an app-based mobile OS. There's a difference between an app and an application in the computer world. So no, while I probably will see Android on a desktop, unless it gets rid of the whole app idea and starts talking about applications, then I'm good.

The desktop is already dead as far as the general market is concerned. The only ones using them these days are enthusiasts (read: gamers), businesses, and scientists, and I honestly believe even businesses and gamers will drop it once prebuilt systems like laptops and cellphones in, say, the $400 and under range are powerful enough that the extra performance in an enthusiast machine isn't worth the extra cost. Desktops will always have a home in science, both because the easy configuration makes it possible to specialize for experiments, and because certain fields just need a lot of processing power. Otherwise the supercomputer wouldn't be a thing.

As for apps being something different from applications: what are you smoking? App is an abbreviation for application that has been in use forever, but exploded in use because the people in charge of marketing the iPhone figured the name would sell well, and apparently they hit it out of the park on that one. If you're thinking app=tied to an app store, application=can be installed in whatever way you want, Windows 8 is geared more towards that definition of app than android is[footnote]edit: Yes, you can install programs from outside of the windows app store on Windows 8, but there's a major caveat: they don't go on your home screen, they're segragated inside the desktop app, which is pretty useless in Windows 8. On an android phone, sideloaded apps are treated just like apps from the Google Play store, with the only exception being that Google Play doesn't update them for you, just like Steam doesn't automatically update games you didn't install through it.[/footnote]. Android has an app store (actually there's several for it), but you can manually install any program you want. All you need is a .apk[footnote]this is essentially the Android equivalent of a .msi file for windows. The fact that it's got a name that's not used in other operating systems is okay -- it's not like OSX and Linux are identical to Windows on that front, either[/footnote] file for the program in question, and there's plenty of places to get them from beyond the Google Play store.

 

[Wicky_42]

If we get to the point where fully modular computing is a thing - external graphics cards, CPUs etc that can be hot-connected to a handheld computer (see the new thunderbolt connector for something that can potentially already make that a reality for laptops), then I don't see how a traditional tower desktop can survive.

Smart phones are already stupidly powerful - I mean freaking quadcore chips?! - and convenient. Give them a few high bandwidth universal connectors and the firmware and you could just plug it into your home hardware setup and smoothly transition from your mobile experience to your work/high-powered gaming configuration. Or, with sufficient internet infrastructure, your handheld would be just a gateway to your personal software cloud, doing away with the need for expensive personal hardware.

That all needs significant advances in certain areas, but it's all quite conceivable if you think about applications of even just the tech that's public knowledge.

 

[MammothBlade]

If we get to the point where fully modular computing is a thing - external graphics cards, CPUs etc that can be hot-connected to a handheld computer (see the new thunderbolt connector for something that can potentially already make that a reality for laptops), then I don't see how a traditional tower desktop can survive.

Smart phones are already stupidly powerful - I mean freaking quadcore chips?! - and convenient. Give them a few high bandwidth universal connectors and the firmware and you could just plug it into your home hardware setup and smoothly transition from your mobile experience to your work/high-powered gaming configuration. Or, with sufficient internet infrastructure, your handheld would be just a gateway to your personal software cloud, doing away with the need for expensive personal hardware.

That all needs significant advances in certain areas, but it's all quite conceivable if you think about applications of even just the tech that's public knowledge.

They still wouldn't have the raw capability of a desktop OS- and I reckon the most powerful desktop base units will also get smaller, to the size of the Nintendo Wii. They will integrate into one multimedia/computing hub per household.

I don't like leaving too much up to the cloud either. It gives the hosting companies a chokehold on your personal data and software, they could suspend your access to your own cloud files for whatever reason. Can't happen when all the data is stored on your own hardware.

 

[BeerTent]

Yes, you can install programs from outside of the windows app store on Windows 8, but there's a major caveat: they don't go on your home screen, they're segragated inside the desktop app, which is pretty useless in Windows 8. On an android phone, sideloaded apps are treated just like apps from the Google Play store, with the only exception being that Google Play doesn't update them for you, just like Steam doesn't automatically update games you didn't install through it.

Care to repeat? [http://dl.dropbox.com/u/65110350/Untitled.png] Looks like I'm backwards. I find the Microsoft account and apps are largely useless, I use 8 for just about every other reason and I get along just fine with it. We're done with the bullshit start menu. Time to roll in improved usability and a proper advancement of usability.

Which reminds me... I need to set up my Virtual Domain again... >.> Too many games there.

While I'm just kind of learning Android now, I feel your Theory's a a little too far out there. You're focusing on the average youtuber. The user who checks their email, begrudgingly with this weird piece of furniture that has impacted their home and done little but chew power and repair bills. Of course they'd rather go with a tablet or android phone. You don't have to deal with the bullshit a laptop or Desktop OS will throw at you, and more often than not, you can get tablets for less than $500, and phones for $50. While this kind of user is common, this kind of user is already making their move to the tablets and phones as we speak. Look around you, there's a lot of computer laptops and desktops around, and there's no sign of them disappearing.

While you lop Gamers under Enthusiasts, I also feel this is, again "too far out there." The gamers who take the time to build their own desktops are few and far in between. (Though ones that would pay for someone to build them on the other hand...) If your theory is right, Consoles would retain a much heavier popularity with users. Large AAA publishers has at most given a glance at apps on iOS and Android. You've got your Modern Warfares on there, and your Mirror's edge app, but these are projects completed within a very small timeframe, and offered for at most $5.

And finally, Companies. Companies will only drop desktops if they're deep in IT, and in that case, it's an employee issued laptop with an IDE and MSO on it. There is no fucking way anyone in these settings, if they're developing in house, or consulting, will ever drop the laptop in favor for the phone, tablet or PDA. Yes, we have those cool laptops with Docks on them, and in theory we can get docks for our tablets in the workplace, bit there's one major point, why the fuck would you ever code on a touchscreen to meet deadlines at home? If a Technical Management Group suggested the company go this route, even 20 years into the future, they'd be told to pack their stuff and be out the door by Friday.

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

Yes, you can install programs from outside of the windows app store on Windows 8, but there's a major caveat: they don't go on your home screen, they're segragated inside the desktop app, which is pretty useless in Windows 8. On an android phone, sideloaded apps are treated just like apps from the Google Play store, with the only exception being that Google Play doesn't update them for you, just like Steam doesn't automatically update games you didn't install through it.

Care to repeat? [http://dl.dropbox.com/u/65110350/Untitled.png] Looks like I'm backwards. I find the Microsoft account and apps are largely useless, I use 8 for just about every other reason and I get along just fine with it. We're done with the bullshit start menu. Time to roll in improved usability and a proper advancement of usability.

Which reminds me... I need to set up my Virtual Domain again... >.> Too many games there.

While I'm just kind of learning Android now, I feel your Theory's a a little too far out there. You're focusing on the average youtuber. The user who checks their email, begrudgingly with this weird piece of furniture that has impacted their home and done little but chew power and repair bills. Of course they'd rather go with a tablet or android phone. You don't have to deal with the bullshit a laptop or Desktop OS will throw at you, and more often than not, you can get tablets for less than $500, and phones for $50. While this kind of user is common, this kind of user is already making their move to the tablets and phones as we speak. Look around you, there's a lot of computer laptops and desktops around, and there's no sign of them disappearing.

While you lop Gamers under Enthusiasts, I also feel this is, again "too far out there." The gamers who take the time to build their own desktops are few and far in between. (Though ones that would pay for someone to build them on the other hand...) If your theory is right, Consoles would retain a much heavier popularity with users. Large AAA publishers has at most given a glance at apps on iOS and Android. You've got your Modern Warfares on there, and your Mirror's edge app, but these are projects completed within a very small timeframe, and offered for at most $5.

And finally, Companies. Companies will only drop desktops if they're deep in IT, and in that case, it's an employee issued laptop with an IDE and MSO on it. There is no fucking way anyone in these settings, if they're developing in house, or consulting, will ever drop the laptop in favor for the phone, tablet or PDA. Yes, we have those cool laptops with Docks on them, and in theory we can get docks for our tablets in the workplace, bit there's one major point, why the fuck would you ever code on a touchscreen to meet deadlines at home? If a Technical Management Group suggested the company go this route, even 20 years into the future, they'd be told to pack their stuff and be out the door by Friday.

Okay, I stand corrected on just how closed the garden is in Windows 8. I heard wrong on that count, but that doesn't change the openness of Android.

As for the rest:

I'm not focusing just on the kind of user who just has a PC for e-mail and youtube (although I think most geeks underestimate their influence) so much as I am the person who has one for general computing -- word processing, web and e-mail, powerpoint, amateur photo and video editing, light gaming, and so on. Stuff that, for the time being, a laptop is the most cost effective solution for. I honestly believe that smart phones are getting to a point where they'll have enough power for that in the very near future, if not already. They already do have support for the kind of external peripherals (like monitors and keyboards) you need to do that sort of work, they just lack the kind of plug it in and go simplicity needed for general acceptance -- but that's coming.

Gamers under enthusiasts: I didn't mean all gamers, just PC gamers. Console gamers aren't really in this discussion, although I can see smart phones eventually replacing those, too -- just look at the Ouya, which is based on the same platform as most high end tablets from around the time it was announced.

As for coding on a touch screen: that's the brilliant part. You don't do that. You code on a keyboard that is connected to the same device as a touch screen. To give an idea, my dad is an IT professional, and in addition to a laptop the company issued him a cell phone. He's had a few different models over the years, but the last one was a blackberry and the current one is an iPhone. This isn't some Cadillac benefit, either -- it's a working phone that he needs because he's on 24 hour help desk call for a week out of every month, and it's a fairly common thing. Point being, if the company is buying these phones anyway, don't you think a model that hooks up to an inexpensive dock which replaces the laptop would be attractive to them? And interestingly, as a guy who writes code for a living, he's pretty excited about the idea of getting a bluetooth keyboard for his tablets (he's got two; a Nook Tablet and an Asus Transformer) so he can use them for some actual work. If he's in the field and excited about getting a keyboard for a modern tablet, I'd imagine a cheap and integrated setup that includes keyboard, mouse, and monitor would take off pretty well with the kind of cell phones we'll be seeing 10 or 20 years from now.

 

[Wicky_42]

Spoiler: snip

If we get to the point where fully modular computing is a thing - external graphics cards, CPUs etc that can be hot-connected to a handheld computer (see the new thunderbolt connector for something that can potentially already make that a reality for laptops), then I don't see how a traditional tower desktop can survive.

Smart phones are already stupidly powerful - I mean freaking quadcore chips?! - and convenient. Give them a few high bandwidth universal connectors and the firmware and you could just plug it into your home hardware setup and smoothly transition from your mobile experience to your work/high-powered gaming configuration. Or, with sufficient internet infrastructure, your handheld would be just a gateway to your personal software cloud, doing away with the need for expensive personal hardware.

That all needs significant advances in certain areas, but it's all quite conceivable if you think about applications of even just the tech that's public knowledge.

They still wouldn't have the raw capability of a desktop OS- and I reckon the most powerful desktop base units will also get smaller, to the size of the Nintendo Wii. They will integrate into one multimedia/computing hub per household.

I don't like leaving too much up to the cloud either. Why put your information and files where you don't have complete control and access whenever you want?

The question is whether the traditional desktop OS will radically change. We already have Windows heading towards bringing a mobile OS to the desktop, eventually it may get to the point where only enthusiasts go through the curve of learning a Linux distribution so they can game.

Clouds are an odd thing - the legal status of their data is in question and currently the internet isn't fast enough to really enable desktop-level computing - but it's a potential future. Many people don't seem to give a shit about their security or privacy.

 

[One Shot wonder]

You guys haven't considered that the size limit of devices is the heat dissipation capacity. Sure tablets and laptops have i5 and i7 chips, but they're underclocked low-end models so they don't fry themselves. As time goes on, even with more efficient microarchitecture that's not gonna change too much. A laptop with the same power as a desktop will always cost more, as it has a lot less space to play with when it comes to heat dissipation and power distribution, which act as limiting factors on device capabilities. A powerful laptop is essentially a midrange desktop you can carry, it has to be plugged in because battery life is usually less than an hour and the size of the thing makes it unsuitable for use in transit. Even with those sacrifices the performance still lags behind a desktop of the same price and going by performance the price is far higher than a similarly specced desktop. When price (or performance) are an issue the desktop solution is superior. Furthermore, being so compact laptops and tablets have issues with changing hardware. Laptop Graphics units require soldering to change, that is if you can change them at all. For most users this isn't much of a concern, but it is a major selling point for anyone who may be interested.

I don't see a future where our smartphones and our desktops are interchangeable. I could see a future where those who don't need high end computing power will favour dual-purpose devices similar to what has been mentioned. However, they'd have issues with power supply with current tech. My housemate (and Physics coursemate) has one of the aforementioned phones with a quad core processor and other high-end features. However, it is still a smartphone/small tablet hybrid and not suited to anything more. In fact, in order to run certain apps it has to be plugged into a wall to avoid depleting the battery (can't draw enough power via USB), those may be fringe cases but nevertheless trying to create a hybrid smartphone/tablet PC will take a while to be more than a jack of all trades yet, if it gets past that at all. Sure it has a 'quad core' processor, but those are still mobile cores with much lower processing outputs than desktop or laptop processors and very different architecture. ARM is far more suited to mobile, and although there have been tablets announced with intel processors I'm still not convinced as to how much extra processing power they'll be able to offer with any decent battery life. Definitely, portable computing solutions are destined to increase in popularity as most people don't want high-end hardware or modularity, but sounding the death knell of the desktop PC may be a bit premature just yet.

Talking of other scenarios, consoles are moving more and more towards being closed in desktop PCs, with the xbox 720, the PS4 ('orbis' or whatever silly thing they're trying to call it) that trend looks set to continue, I wouldn't be surprised if in a few generations microsoft were to offer a hybrid PC/XBOX (this is a bit less of a mainstream prediction but if you look at it, with the 360 controller being perfectly compatible and the integration of some xbox live interaction into the new generation of windows it seems like it could happen).

 

[BeerTent]

[...]

Okay, I stand corrected on just how closed the garden is in Windows 8. I heard wrong on that count, but that doesn't change the openness of Android.

As for the rest:

I'm not focusing just on the kind of user who just has a PC for e-mail and youtube (although I think most geeks underestimate their influence) so much as I am the person who has one for general computing -- word processing, web and e-mail, powerpoint, amateur photo and video editing, light gaming, and so on. Stuff that, for the time being, a laptop is the most cost effective solution for. I honestly believe that smart phones are getting to a point where they'll have enough power for that in the very near future, if not already. They already do have support for the kind of external peripherals (like monitors and keyboards) you need to do that sort of work, they just lack the kind of plug it in and go simplicity needed for general acceptance -- but that's coming.

Gamers under enthusiasts: I didn't mean all gamers, just PC gamers. Console gamers aren't really in this discussion, although I can see smart phones eventually replacing those, too -- just look at the Ouya, which is based on the same platform as most high end tablets from around the time it was announced.

As for coding on a touch screen: that's the brilliant part. You don't do that. You code on a keyboard that is connected to the same device as a touch screen. To give an idea, my dad is an IT professional, and in addition to a laptop the company issued him a cell phone. He's had a few different models over the years, but the last one was a blackberry and the current one is an iPhone. This isn't some Cadillac benefit, either -- it's a working phone that he needs because he's on 24 hour help desk call for a week out of every month, and it's a fairly common thing. Point being, if the company is buying these phones anyway, don't you think a model that hooks up to an inexpensive dock which replaces the laptop would be attractive to them? And interestingly, as a guy who writes code for a living, he's pretty excited about the idea of getting a bluetooth keyboard for his tablets (he's got two; a Nook Tablet and an Asus Transformer) so he can use them for some actual work. If he's in the field and excited about getting a keyboard for a modern tablet, I'd imagine a cheap and integrated setup that includes keyboard, mouse, and monitor would take off pretty well with the kind of cell phones we'll be seeing 10 or 20 years from now.

While I understand the influence the kind of user that has a PC for email, they don't account for businesses. Which is the big group I'm aiming at. If you can get big companies to go in a certain direction, the rest of the world will follow. Just because the both of us have laptops, it doesn't mean we're going in the direction of tablets and phones for everything.

While I do encompass both, Console and PC in my definition in "Gamer" my point still stands. Even if we lop away all Console gamers, and keep the PC gamers, there's a lot of them out there who couldn't tell you a whole lot about their system. Even more with less of an understanding of how their systems work. They're like drivers, they got a pretty good handle on what means what, and some of them know how to maintain a car, but if something isn't right, or if there's a clunk in the trunk, they got nothing, and need to hire a tech. To say most are IT, or PC enthusiasts is wishful thinking.

I've actually been in the same boat as your father. Managing BES and being on call for a small company. Only a handful of us got phones because we needed all the man-power 24/7. And it's not just the small companies with BES, iphones, and Android phones. It's the standard. If, perhaps, we got a major overhaul in the next 15 or so years on how they're managed... Maybe. But these docks have got to be cheap. You're going to need two for each employee, one for home, one for work, and the unit itself to dock into. Not to mention, if you go with apple, you'll need all of the equipment and software they've produced, and licensed... Blackberry is in the same boat, and Android will likely be out of the picture due to it's Open Source Nature. (So, Google's lagging far behind.) While I'm a Microsoft guy, I don't feel their phones will be up to scratch to convince any TMG to take them seriously. even with Win8's promises to push in that direction for a better, more universal OS.

In hindsight, maybe. But I wouldn't bet anything on seeing this kind of technology deployed by companies in 20 years. I still feel that tablets are a step backwards.

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

Spoiler: spoiler snip

[...]

Okay, I stand corrected on just how closed the garden is in Windows 8. I heard wrong on that count, but that doesn't change the openness of Android.

As for the rest:

I'm not focusing just on the kind of user who just has a PC for e-mail and youtube (although I think most geeks underestimate their influence) so much as I am the person who has one for general computing -- word processing, web and e-mail, powerpoint, amateur photo and video editing, light gaming, and so on. Stuff that, for the time being, a laptop is the most cost effective solution for. I honestly believe that smart phones are getting to a point where they'll have enough power for that in the very near future, if not already. They already do have support for the kind of external peripherals (like monitors and keyboards) you need to do that sort of work, they just lack the kind of plug it in and go simplicity needed for general acceptance -- but that's coming.

Gamers under enthusiasts: I didn't mean all gamers, just PC gamers. Console gamers aren't really in this discussion, although I can see smart phones eventually replacing those, too -- just look at the Ouya, which is based on the same platform as most high end tablets from around the time it was announced.

As for coding on a touch screen: that's the brilliant part. You don't do that. You code on a keyboard that is connected to the same device as a touch screen. To give an idea, my dad is an IT professional, and in addition to a laptop the company issued him a cell phone. He's had a few different models over the years, but the last one was a blackberry and the current one is an iPhone. This isn't some Cadillac benefit, either -- it's a working phone that he needs because he's on 24 hour help desk call for a week out of every month, and it's a fairly common thing. Point being, if the company is buying these phones anyway, don't you think a model that hooks up to an inexpensive dock which replaces the laptop would be attractive to them? And interestingly, as a guy who writes code for a living, he's pretty excited about the idea of getting a bluetooth keyboard for his tablets (he's got two; a Nook Tablet and an Asus Transformer) so he can use them for some actual work. If he's in the field and excited about getting a keyboard for a modern tablet, I'd imagine a cheap and integrated setup that includes keyboard, mouse, and monitor would take off pretty well with the kind of cell phones we'll be seeing 10 or 20 years from now.

While I understand the influence the kind of user that has a PC for email, they don't account for businesses. Which is the big group I'm aiming at. If you can get big companies to go in a certain direction, the rest of the world will follow. Just because the both of us have laptops, it doesn't mean we're going in the direction of tablets and phones for everything.

While I do encompass both, Console and PC in my definition in "Gamer" my point still stands. Even if we lop away all Console gamers, and keep the PC gamers, there's a lot of them out there who couldn't tell you a whole lot about their system. Even more with less of an understanding of how their systems work. They're like drivers, they got a pretty good handle on what means what, and some of them know how to maintain a car, but if something isn't right, or if there's a clunk in the trunk, they got nothing, and need to hire a tech. To say most are IT, or PC enthusiasts is wishful thinking.

I've actually been in the same boat as your father. Managing BES and being on call for a small company. Only a handful of us got phones because we needed all the man-power 24/7. And it's not just the small companies with BES, iphones, and Android phones. It's the standard. If, perhaps, we got a major overhaul in the next 15 or so years on how they're managed... Maybe. But these docks have got to be cheap. You're going to need two for each employee, one for home, one for work, and the unit itself to dock into. Not to mention, if you go with apple, you'll need all of the equipment and software they've produced, and licensed... Blackberry is in the same boat, and Android will likely be out of the picture due to it's Open Source Nature. (So, Google's lagging far behind.) While I'm a Microsoft guy, I don't feel their phones will be up to scratch to convince any TMG to take them seriously. even with Win8's promises to push in that direction for a better, more universal OS.

In hindsight, maybe. But I wouldn't bet anything on seeing this kind of technology deployed by companies in 20 years. I still feel that tablets are a step backwards.

Okay, I see what you're saying. When I said "enthusiast," I may have used the wrong word. I was thinking more about people who need a lot of power for whatever they do for entertainment than the guys who really enjoy tweaking hardware (although I think most of the latter are also members of the former group.) "Enthusiast" is a term that gets applied to high end hardware a lot whether or not the hardware itself is what users are enthusiastic about.

As for business:it looks like we agree on 99.9% of what we're talking about here. The one major issue is, as you pointed out, how much these docks wind up costing. However, they don't need to be too terribly cheap, just cheap enough that you could buy two for under the cost of one mid range laptop. It doesn't have to be a huge difference, just a marginal benefit, for it to be possible. And a marginal benefit for companies that have to buy two to make up for one laptop would be a significant savings for consumers, who would only be buying one.

Spoiler: spoiler snip

You guys haven't considered that the size limit of devices is the heat dissipation capacity. Sure tablets and laptops have i5 and i7 chips, but they're underclocked low-end models so they don't fry themselves. As time goes on, even with more efficient microarchitecture that's not gonna change too much. A laptop with the same power as a desktop will always cost more, as it has a lot less space to play with when it comes to heat dissipation and power distribution, which act as limiting factors on device capabilities. A powerful laptop is essentially a midrange desktop you can carry, it has to be plugged in because battery life is usually less than an hour and the size of the thing makes it unsuitable for use in transit. Even with those sacrifices the performance still lags behind a desktop of the same price and going by performance the price is far higher than a similarly specced desktop. When price (or performance) are an issue the desktop solution is superior. Furthermore, being so compact laptops and tablets have issues with changing hardware. Laptop Graphics units require soldering to change, that is if you can change them at all. For most users this isn't much of a concern, but it is a major selling point for anyone who may be interested.

I don't see a future where our smartphones and our desktops are interchangeable. I could see a future where those who don't need high end computing power will favour dual-purpose devices similar to what has been mentioned. However, they'd have issues with power supply with current tech. My housemate (and Physics coursemate) has one of the aforementioned phones with a quad core processor and other high-end features. However, it is still a smartphone/small tablet hybrid and not suited to anything more. In fact, in order to run certain apps it has to be plugged into a wall to avoid depleting the battery (can't draw enough power via USB), those may be fringe cases but nevertheless trying to create a hybrid smartphone/tablet PC will take a while to be more than a jack of all trades yet, if it gets past that at all. Sure it has a 'quad core' processor, but those are still mobile cores with much lower processing outputs than desktop or laptop processors and very different architecture. ARM is far more suited to mobile, and although there have been tablets announced with intel processors I'm still not convinced as to how much extra processing power they'll be able to offer with any decent battery life. Definitely, portable computing solutions are destined to increase in popularity as most people don't want high-end hardware or modularity, but sounding the death knell of the desktop PC may be a bit premature just yet.

Talking of other scenarios, consoles are moving more and more towards being closed in desktop PCs, with the xbox 720, the PS4 ('orbis' or whatever silly thing they're trying to call it) that trend looks set to continue, I wouldn't be surprised if in a few generations microsoft were to offer a hybrid PC/XBOX (this is a bit less of a mainstream prediction but if you look at it, with the 360 controller being perfectly compatible and the integration of some xbox live interaction into the new generation of windows it seems like it could happen).

You've actually got me on the heat issue. I was mainly thinking about Moore's law, but I guess at some point you're going to be hitting up against some basic laws of the universe when it comes to miniaturization. We're already getting there when it comes to the amount of power you can get out of a single CPU core using current manufacturing techniques.

Edit: Moores law, and the law of diminishing returns as it applies to economics (why pay more to get a more powerful system when this one already does what I need?). Problem is, if we're gonna apply it to economics, we may as well apply it to engineering too (how many more improvements can be made before we're hitting up on molecule sized transistors that can't be made smaller?)

 

[Eclectic Dreck]

In closing, Apps are a big thing now, but Android will never hit a full computer. PDA's, Phones, Players, glasses... Never a full PC.

The question I suppose one should ask is how long will PCs matter for the general public. Other devices perform the trivial and frivolous functions of the device adequately - from information retrieval and storage to organization and communication. Useful functionality is regularly placed on the hands of computers elsewhere even when using a PC undermining their use there. Aside from gaming, what benefit actually comes in having a PC? Peripherals? Those are available for many popular handheld devices. Raw power? Perhaps useful to professionals but hardly necessary for most usage patterns.

The PC (including the Mac) is waning. Sure, hobbyists will still use them, professionals will still find a need but people in general? They don't need them. Hell, they never liked them in the first place.

 

[Olas]

I'm a nerd who barely represents any large demographic out there, but I own an android powered phone and I barely find myself voluntarily using it for much of anything besides a few basic functions like calling people and playing music.

Sure it may be powerful and capable, but it's just too small and awkward for doing anything serious with. I'm not going to try to do work on it, I can't play any good games on it, I might be able to surf the web but most of the web still isn't formatted to such a small screen. There's not much portable devices can do that isn't much easier and better on a desktop or other large device. So why would I use them?

The android OS is good at what it is but it just doesn't feel like it's even really in competition with Windows. If anything with Windows 8 and the Windows Phone it seems microsoft is working harder to try and push out Android than vice versa.

Edit: I also don't see people ever plugging their phones into a monitor at their desk and using it like that. If I'm going to sit at a desk I want the full benefit of a desktop CPU. Why suffer through the worst of both worlds? It seems more probable that handhelds will be linked or synced with our desktops or larger platforms so that all files and information can still be effortlessly accessed from either one like a mini-cloud but still kept as two separate devices to remain useful for every occasion.