Biden v. Trump Election Mega Thread

[Agema]

It's unclear Biden's position on China, and Trump likely will back countries attacked by China like he backed India with a carrier strike group when China attacked India and sent ships down the Taiwan Straits when China sent planes towards it.

The USA's ability to restrict China depends on its abilities to forge effective alliances with Far Eastern countries. Trump might be superficially bellicose, but his unpredicability, uneven foreign policy and "America First" attitude actually diminishes this. The Trump administration has surely put China first and foremost as an opponent, but what is the point of that if the president also undermines what needs to be done to oppose it?

And the reason that Trump wants to scare allies is so they could increase military spending even this Vox video admitted that many allies like Japan, Germany, and etc are lowering defense spending

This is not true. In fact, most of these countries are increasing defence spending - albeit from very low levels (~1%) in some cases.

Also, the EU and NATO are not really relevant to China. The EU is too far away to meaningfully get involved militarily bar very minor support. I think there is some general agreement in the EU that they need to increase defence spending (those below 2% GDP have generally agreed to increase to 2%, albeit gradually), but it will focused around Africa and Russia. The primary responsibility for defence of the Far East is the nations there. There are other allies: India, rapidly growing into a significant power, will surely oppose Chinese influence along the Indian Ocean, Myanmar to Indonesia.

now they could bandwagon with China/Russia, but China already tried it, and failed, and Russia already tried to join the EU, and it failed.

???

Russia has never attempted to join the EU - or do you mean it tried to so the same thing as the EU, in which case can you clarify what?

 

[Agema]

You're assuming the Belt and Road works out in the long run. It could very well descend into a failed vanity project. Despite what I am reading online, I looked at the generational makeup of China recently and I really couldn't fathom how the CCP plans to bust the middle-income trap. In 20 years a massive amount of its population would be in retirement, and lacking any substantial pension programs many working-age adults (in their 50s, which is theoretically a person's most productive years, mind you) would have to leave the cities and move back home to support their parents. The current generation of 20-30 year olds is smaller than the previous two generations, and the makeup of China's kids is tiny. Despite the large size of China I don't think they have as many able-bodied soldiers as they'd want on the field.

Yes. China is competing with other global investment. An advantage of capitalism is it leaves individual entities free to assess cost-benefit analyses in a lot of detail, so should - at least in theory - be more likely back maximally productive investments. A clumsy, central push without the same targetting is more likely to fritter investment on low productivity leftovers, and there is evidence this is what's occurring in places like Africa: China's investments are relatively poor quality. On the other hand, they're still buying stuff up and consolidating some power.

You are also right about the likely the trajectory of China's development. As you say, their workforce will start contracting very soon, and China has very poor provision for welfare. The decrease in workforce will be offset and then some by development so it will still grow, but probably at a lower rate. Also, it will be harder to grow as it becomes more advanced. The alleged 7-8% growth recently will decline probably to about half that, plus the decreased workforce. (I say alleged, because there's evidence the decline has already started and China's has been misreporting growth for many years, with some analysts suggest its real economy may be about 20% lower than official figures.) In general, many economists suggest there's a "middle income" trap. Look at middle income countries in 1945, very few have made it to high income countries in the last 70 years, suggesting the transition is much harder than just needing general growth. It remains to be seen whether China will hit this wall or break through it. Nevertheless, a billion people even in a middle income country is a whole lot of economy and power.

 

[Iron]

Yes. China is competing with other global investment. An advantage of capitalism is it leaves individual entities free to assess cost-benefit analyses in a lot of detail, so should - at least in theory - be more likely back maximally productive investments. A clumsy, central push without the same targetting is more likely to fritter investment on low productivity leftovers, and there is evidence this is what's occurring in places like Africa: China's investments are relatively poor quality. On the other hand, they're still buying stuff up and consolidating some power.

You are also right about the likely the trajectory of China's development. As you say, their workforce will start contracting very soon, and China has very poor provision for welfare. The decrease in workforce will be offset and then some by development so it will still grow, but probably at a lower rate. Also, it will be harder to grow as it becomes more advanced. The alleged 7-8% growth recently will decline probably to about half that, plus the decreased workforce. (I say alleged, because there's evidence the decline has already started and China's has been misreporting growth for many years, with some analysts suggest its real economy may be about 20% lower than official figures.) In general, many economists suggest there's a "middle income" trap. Look at middle income countries in 1945, very few have made it to high income countries in the last 70 years, suggesting the transition is much harder than just needing general growth. It remains to be seen whether China will hit this wall or break through it. Nevertheless, a billion people even in a middle income country is a whole lot of economy and power.

Wow you value my opinion



I can't read the FT article though, sadface.
I alluded to it earlier, that the Chinese numbers are fudged. China has a lot of (business) enemies because of its financial policies. You can put your cash in easily, but it's very hard to take it out. Their currency is pegged artificially as well, and out of the foreign exchange markets. I don't know how much of a market this is, but I read that Macao is one of the biggest dollar pipelines outside of the CCP, because you can cash out your chips in dollars. If someone else with some knowledge can chime in I'll be very thankful. Just imagine you're a CCP middle-management in some backwards province (with the population of 80 million, give of take, you lost count) and you want to hide some money away so you can send your kid to study abroad.... imagine the inflation of housing prices, yikes. I'm all over the place.

Do you remember when they had factory protests and riots? I think it was an Apple or Nvidia factory. Some footage leaked out, I think in 2014. They also had veteran marches, asking for better pensions. Their solution is crackdown, all the time, and it's also culturally fit for the Chinese. Not the crackdowns, mind you, but the authoritarianism - the people agree to be governed this way as long as it is beneficial to them. The moment the CCP lose the figurative mandate of heaven, the nation will suffer immensely. I hate doom-saying, mostly because you're often wrong when you do it, but the next few years may break them.

I think that when the huge chunk of 60+ years old retires to the countryside many of their kids (then 40-50 years old) will be forced to move back to support them physically. Sending money back home won't be enough, they would be forced out of the working environment and back to subsistence farming. That's around 5 years from now.

There's a reason China is thrashing around with India, claiming Outer Machuria, etc. - these are the death-throes of a cornered, wounded animal. On the same note, Russia isn't very different from the CCP.

You can measure how well the average joe is doing with the price of foodstuff there.

Pig price in China - MOA - Live - pig333, pig to pork community

weekly price of fattening pigs and its evolution: China - MOA - Live

www.pig333.com

Bread Riots? What about Bacon Riots?

 

[Agema]

Wow you value my opinion

Nobody is totally without useful opinions. Actually, that said, there have been a few users over the years who never managed to demonstrate that...

I think one of the interesting things about China is how their "managed" capitalism fares against the West's much more considerable laissez-faire. Laissez-faire theory suggests leaving companies free and they will arrange the optimum result on their own, where government interference with less knowledge mostly just introduces inefficiency. But what if it's not true, and there are ways to play the system?

So in the UK, we have a beleaguered steel industry. Well, beleaguered entire manufacturing sector, really. But anyway, China overproduced steel, flooded the markets as the economy slowed after the Great Recession, and this drove the prices down until the British steel companies basically collapsed. The UK, playing laissez-faire, blocked rules to protect their own industry. Now a Chinese company is planning to pick up one of these effectively bankrupt companies, so they will come to own British steel production - not just the production itself, but also whatever technological knowledge it might have. It occurs to me this might be "inefficient" in a way, but if competitors are destroyed and taken over, maybe they make their money back... and more.

 

[Iron]

Nobody is totally without useful opinions. Actually, that said, there have been a few users over the years who never managed to demonstrate that...

I think one of the interesting things about China is how their "managed" capitalism fares against the West's much more considerable laissez-faire. Laissez-faire theory suggests leaving companies free and they will arrange the optimum result on their own, where government interference with less knowledge mostly just introduces inefficiency. But what if it's not true, and there are ways to play the system?

So in the UK, we have a beleaguered steel industry. Well, beleaguered entire manufacturing sector, really. But anyway, China overproduced steel, flooded the markets as the economy slowed after the Great Recession, and this drove the prices down until the British steel companies basically collapsed. The UK, playing laissez-faire, blocked rules to protect their own industry. Now a Chinese company is planning to pick up one of these effectively bankrupt companies, so they will come to own British steel production - not just the production itself, but also whatever technological knowledge it might have. It occurs to me this might be "inefficient" in a way, but if competitors are destroyed and taken over, maybe they make their money back... and more.

Robber Baron Esteemed Mr. Rothchild had a policy of suffocating competitors and then buying their remains. This remains a popular strategy.

I think you're mistaken with your assessment. The West hadn't used Laissez-faire, it remained a libertarian fever-dream (Unless you can enlighten me about UK policy, because I have read that the principles behind laissez-faire were used when they were trying to justify letting Ireland starve to death). On the same term, CCP doesn't manage its capitalism - it isn't a planned economy. It is similar to the NatSoc system, which was ineffective compared to this, where industries were controlled by party members and propped up by the state. In this case, CCP either controls directly or through its agents major corporations, and reserves the right to nationalize any industry at any time. It can be like what you meant - having your cake and eating it - regarding the whole economic system of capitalism.

The trouble is that CCP has pegged its currency, doesn't allow US dollars to leak outside of its borders, won't let you move your industries (only cede them to your Chinese partners)... It is very restrictive. Without the US and its allies allowing the CCP to pretend it is a fair player, it couldn't do what you described in the UK.

I also think that the elites in the UK had systematically sold the country away to foreigners since the 90s. Nothing personal, but your leadership sucks harder than mine.

 

[Cheetodust]

I also think that the elites in the UK had systematically sold the country away to foreigners since the 90s. Nothing personal, but your leadership sucks harder than mine.

Wait, Brit Bashing and nobody invited me?

 

[Shadyside]

yee haw

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/texas-election-demographics-trump/2020/10/17/c952f440-108e-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

[lil devils x]

I don't care about what Trump does, I care about Pompeo, and Esper who are moving the PRC using the QUAD, and more military spending in the navy, and air force.

Trump IS the reason why they have more military spending.. Trump is the reason you have Pompeo and Esper there in the first place too.

 

[lil devils x]

yee haw

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/texas-election-demographics-trump/2020/10/17/c952f440-108e-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

See now this is WHY I want people from California and New York to move the Texas, specifically want them to move to the rural red districts here and FLIP them!

Don't think it has happened yet, but a girl can dream.

They need to do the same thing to Florida while their at it. Just turn Democrat states into progressive making factories and export them to all the rural districts throughout the US and finally put an end to this BS once and for all. This is McConnell's worst nightmare.

 

[Gergar12]

Trump IS the reason why they have more military spending.. Trump is the reason you have Pompeo and Esper there in the first place too.

Trump and Biden are empty vessels for the Republican, and democratic establishment respectively. It's their advisors you need to be concerned about, and the Republicans are better at fighting China, and democrats are better at mostly everything else.

 

[happyninja42]

See now this is WHY I want people from California and New York to move the Texas,

Yeah but...then they'd have to LIVE in Texas.

They need to do the same thing to Florida while their at it.

See above for why that's a bad idea personally

 

[lil devils x]

Trump and Biden are empty vessels for the Republican, and democratic establishment respectively. It's their advisors you need to be concerned about, and the Republicans are better at fighting China, and democrats are better at mostly everything else.

Trump is horrible at " fighting China" he is just trying to secure his families contracts. Why anyone believes his rhetoric and posturing is beyond me. HE is making trade with China worse for the US not better.

Trump’s policies created a record-setting trade deficit in 2018

Trump's "America First" trade policy hasn't turned out so hot.

qz.com

Trump Trade Deficit 6.5% Higher than Obama’s Last Year, Not Eliminated as Then-Candidate Trump Promised - Public Citizen

The U.S. trade deficit in the first half of President Donald Trump’s fourth year in office remains 6.5% higher than…

www.citizen.org

US trade deficit surges in July to highest in 12 years

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit surged in July to $63.6 billion, the highest level in 12 years, as imports jumped by a record amount.

apnews.com

 

[lil devils x]

Yeah but...then they'd have to LIVE in Texas.


See above for why that's a bad idea personally

You can move back home once you free enough people from the GOP monster

 

[Gergar12]

Trump is horrible at " fighting China" he is just trying to secure his families contracts. Why anyone believes his rhetoric and posturing is beyond me. HE is making trade with China worse for the US not better.

Trump’s policies created a record-setting trade deficit in 2018

Trump's "America First" trade policy hasn't turned out so hot.

qz.com

Trump Trade Deficit 6.5% Higher than Obama’s Last Year, Not Eliminated as Then-Candidate Trump Promised - Public Citizen

The U.S. trade deficit in the first half of President Donald Trump’s fourth year in office remains 6.5% higher than…

www.citizen.org

He may be bad at implementation like allies, but the mindset, if he has the mindset, and isn't just posturing for this election, is right. We should have confronted China back in Tiannmenman square, but no, the Republican and Democratic establishments drop the ball and are playing catchup, the Democrats blame the Republicans, and the Republicans blame the Democrats, but they are both at fault, and I would argue the democrats are somewhat more at fault in the present.

 

[lil devils x]

He may be bad at implementation like allies, but the mindset, if he has the mindset, and isn't just posturing for this election, is right. We should have confronted China back in Tiannmenman square, but no, the Republican and Democratic establishments drop the ball and are playing catchup, the Democrats blame the Republicans, and the Republicans blame the Democrats, but they are both at fault, and I would argue the democrats are somewhat more at fault in the present.

His mindset is to Bullshit people and make the trade deficit the worst ion 12 years. He just lies to you. I would rather have someone who is actually helping us, not just a scam artist. His mindset is to lie and think you are not smart enough to figure it out. That's it. He is still having his products made in China himself. He doesn't actually care to solve any of these problems, he is part of the problem.

US trade deficit surges in July to highest in 12 years

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit surged in July to $63.6 billion, the highest level in 12 years, as imports jumped by a record amount.

apnews.com

 

[ObsidianJones]

You can move back home once you free enough people from the GOP monster

You don't like hitting a hornet's nest with a stick, you believe in personally drop kicking that mother fucker, don't you?

Don't you realize jokes are only reserved for Conservatives?! Like saying black men are free to go through the south as long as they are conservatives, or wish for the good ole days of segregation, or saying out loud that Exxon would be more than happy to engage in a Quid Pro Quo for more donor money?

Remember the rules that they set out so we all must adhere to: "They Can, We Mustn't Dream Of Doing The Same."

 

[Shadyside]

See now this is WHY I want people from California and New York to move the Texas, specifically want them to move to the rural red districts here and FLIP them!

As long as they don't push their evil cuckoldry, vegan, and high tax agenda then it's fine by me. I do wonder if the rate continues, maybe blue states become red in a couple of decades?

 

[Gergar12]

His mindset is to Bullshit people and make the trade deficit the worst ion 12 years. He just lies to you. I would rather have someone who is actually helping us, not just a scam artist.

US trade deficit surges in July to highest in 12 years

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit surged in July to $63.6 billion, the highest level in 12 years, as imports jumped by a record amount.

apnews.com

Funny because every time he bans say WeChat(which I use as well), and Tik Tok(which I used, and could get over it), the media complains, the investors complain, and big business complains, and the majority of those institutions are aligned with the democrats at the moment.

Yes, he is banning companies one by one, while a systematic apporach is needed.

I hate Biden, but I also mostly hate domestic neoliberalism and trade/engagement with China. The concept of Neoliberalism in foreign policy-wise for everything else. (collective security, allies free trade, foreign aid, and institutions are fine in theory as that helps the world become a better place)

You don't want to admit this because you assume every bad thing said about Biden could mean one less vote for Biden which could lead to a cascading effect of Biden losing, and your sort of right because the polls are narrowing, Biden internals show a closer race, but at least I am honest about Trump and point out both sides.

 

[ObsidianJones]

As long as they don't push their evil cuckoldry, vegan, and high tax agenda then it's fine by me. I do wonder if the rate continues, maybe blue states become red in a couple of decades?

That clip with Wesley Hunt pisses me the hell off.

My mom and Grandmother didn't have a choice in their health and well being. Someone with the virus brought it to them. My uncle and Cousin had people who didn't wear a mask during their work infect them. That's the thing about communal threats. Your life is everyone's life. You're making everyone's choice for them.

It's like choosing to dump your waste in the water reservoir for your county. It's your waste. You made the choice. You're out there doing the work, so you should be free to do so... except no, Selfish Person, you're doing it in a manner that not everyone can avoid. Congratulations. Because of "MAH RIGHTS", other people must suffer. But you sure are an American, aren't you? Free and Proud...

 

[lil devils x]

As long as they don't push their evil cuckoldry, vegan, and high tax agenda then it's fine by me. I do wonder if the rate continues, maybe blue states become red in a couple of decades?

Pshsh, that isn't a REAL Texan, the Homeless aren't in houses, they bought them a bus ticket to California...

Texas just ships them elsewhere, Even though Texas isn't the MAIN source of homelessness in California, They are still doing it too.
Everyone ships their Homeless to California