I would be amazed if a game as big as this is becoming, wouldn't sell at least half a million copies. It's easy to imagine at least 300k of that picking the Early Access, especially if it's a completed form of the first half.Eric the Orange said:The problem is he probably won't get that money. In the kick starter video he said he'd need another 3m to finish the second half. So assuming they sell the early access for 15$, take off 5$ for steams cut, that means they need 300k sales, and those won't be from the backers who would be the core fan base (of which there were only 90k btw). So it seems extremely unlikely that this game will be finished as he wants it to be.
As you said, those who backed the Kickstarter are the core fanbase, and core fanbases tend to be smaller than the peripheral audience.
Besides, even if they don't succeed, then the second half will be dragged out, but as selling Early Access would drag them down with even more legal expectations to actually finish the game, they would eventually HAVE TO find a way to finish it anyways (or go bankrupt trying, which is unlikely).