Carmack Thinks Sony Will Go "Next-Gen" First

[Sewblon]

I agree with Mr.Carmack on this one. The PS3 is a failed platform. Nintendo will probably be the last company to release another console, First party Wii titles dominated the sales charts last time I checked and they could just release more peripherals forever and their target audience probably wouldn't mind. http://www.vgchartz.com/ See the top ten selling games this month are all on Nintendo consoles.

 

[Outamyhead]

Isn't the PS3 already next-gen?

Compared to the other current systems yes, to current PC tech (which is where all of their so called "next gen" tech comes from)...not by a long shot.

 

[jamesworkshop]

by the time the PS3 wins would be time for the next gen anyway besides its not like Nintendos money that they made in the first 5 years is going to disappear as soon as people start mass buying the PS3.
Forget unit sales the console war is won by profit since this is what business care about first and foremost the winner is already Nintendo

 

[Andy_Panthro]

I get the feeling Sony will be seriously considering leaving the home console market. They're dangerously close to a SEGA situation, and Sony could consider that they can make more money elsewhere.

If the next Xbox uses Blu-ray, then perhaps they will just consider that enough of a win.

As for a console that is download only, I think we'll be waiting a long time. How many people would be able to download a new release at the moment? You would drastically reduce your potential customer base. This is unlikely to change, even if broadband becomes more widespread, because games are getting larger on average. Many people also have download limits on their broadband.

 

[ChromeAlchemist]

Because it will soon become a cheap Blu Ray player, and that's where my belief that it will not be a failure in terms of sales comes in. IMHO if the PS2 couldn't play DVDs it wouldn't have gotten anywhere as many sales as it did. Blu Ray will come into prominence and the PS3 will regain lost sales in time. Yes, it didn't 'boom' from the get-go, like the other two did, but this is a different generation altogether, and this one is a slow burner.

Ugh...putting aside the fact that blu-ray players themselves are almost HALF the price of a ps3...what makes you think people are gonna jump on the Blu-Ray hype?

Consider the population out there that watches pirated movies recorded on shaky camcorders...

Because they are making far too much of a push for it. If you watch t.v. now, all they do is spout off about HD, and Blu Ray players being the next big thing. couple that with the fact that Blu Ray movies actually aren't that expensive, and will get cheaper once Blu Ray is widely adopted, and the fact that Blu Ray won the format war, I'm pretty convinced that Blu Ray will come into the mainstream soon enough. Remember HDTVs have been around since 98, and are only popular since the last few years.

They probably won't kill off DVDs for about another 7 or 8 years though, but Blu Rays aren't going to fizzle out IMHO. The HD buzz is still going strong. I personally don't buy into such things, it's not enough of a jump for me.

Isn't the PS3 already next-gen?

Compared to the other current systems yes, to current PC tech (which is where all of their so called "next gen" tech comes from)...not by a long shot.

He was being facetious.

 

[Pendragon9]

I just noticed something about the comments. I don't even know if Sony can become next gen, because once again I hear the fans complaining. They might be dropping the price, but because Microsoft already dropped the price, THEY WANT SONY TO DROP THE PRICE TWICE!

You greedy bastards. Let me guess, you want them to just give it away free, don't you?

And I personally hope Carmack is off about the "PS4" prediction.

I mean, seriously, I noticed half the posts of this thread are nothing more than people saying the Ps3 is once again a failure. I should've known.

I apologize for being rude, but I wish I would see some more original thinking.

 

[Zer_]

Well if God*cough*Carmack says so...

Well, not to try and start something, but you could very much consider the PS3 a failure, when you compare it to the PS1 and PS2. So it would only make sense if Sony are the ones to try and rush to get their next console out first.

The fact remains that because Sony won the format war, the PS3 will not be a failure, and to me, that's just the way it is. They'll gain market share near the end of it, and I think they'll get ahead of the 360. Natal is make or break for Microsoft.

I were speaking mostly about sales. They won BIG time on the sales front with both the PS1 and PS2, but this time they're in last place. I agree that Natal is a huge make or break for Microsoft, but it definetely seems as if they're not just fucking around with Natal.

They aren't. The problem is more the case of will this appeal for long enough to capitalise on the non-gamer market (which they admitted they will be doing), because the non-gamer market is volatile. Microsoft are certainly taking this seriously though, which is why I don't think it will fail.

As for sales, at the end of the day the PS3 came out a year late and it was far too similar to an already existing console on the market, the 360. When you look at it, this was almost in reverse last generation. To the average gamer, why should they care about buying another console when they have a 360 and an arse load of games to last them years to come?

Because it will soon become a cheap Blu Ray player, and that's where my belief that it will not be a failure in terms of sales comes in. IMHO if the PS2 couldn't play DVDs it wouldn't have gotten anywhere as many sales as it did. Blu Ray will come into prominence and the PS3 will regain lost sales in time. Yes, it didn't 'boom' from the get-go, like the other two did, but this is a different generation altogether, and this one is a slow burner.

You can get Blu-Ray players for under 200 dollars.

 

[Izerous]

Because it will soon become a cheap Blu Ray player, and that's where my belief that it will not be a failure in terms of sales comes in. IMHO if the PS2 couldn't play DVDs it wouldn't have gotten anywhere as many sales as it did. Blu Ray will come into prominence and the PS3 will regain lost sales in time. Yes, it didn't 'boom' from the get-go, like the other two did, but this is a different generation altogether, and this one is a slow burner.

Ugh...putting aside the fact that blu-ray players themselves are almost HALF the price of a ps3...what makes you think people are gonna jump on the Blu-Ray hype?

Consider the population out there that watches pirated movies recorded on shaky camcorders...

Similar things were said about jumps from vcrs, to laser disks, to dvd's, and now to blu-ray's about hype and what makes you think it will hold etc. It happens with every new format. It doesn't seem important now but 5-10 years from now you probably won't see any where near the selection of DVD's compared to blu-ray on the market. Especially as the cost of blu-ray players drop. And if using HDMI they are easier to connect than previous technology for the technically challenged. I do know people who were afraid to connect regular RCA cables.

The blu-ray aisle's at best buy and other stores will slowly get larger as the DVD aisle shrinks just like what happened with DVD vs VHS. Will just take time. A year ago had a couple shelfs in an aisle. Now it is a double sided aisle. Year from now might be 2 aisles. Just takes time.

 

[JediMB]

People have to keep in mind that Sony's ten-year-plan for the PS3 probably involves releasing the PS4 about six years into the life cycle and then simply continuing to support the PS3 for another four or more.

It's what they did with the PS1 and the PS2, after all, and Nintendo did the same thing with the NES, SNES and the Game Boy line.

 

[Jumplion]

You can get Blu-Ray players for under 200 dollars.

Though surprisingly the PS3 is a pretty good stand-alone Blu-ray player in itself. It's also upgradable (HDD wise anyway) and it updates itself improving both the blu-ray performance and other media aspects.

Besides, it's not like the PS3 is Sony's only blu-ray player [http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&categoryId=27898&XID=O:sony%20blu%20ray%20players:dg_bluray_gglsrch] on the market.

 

[Anarchemitis]

[HEADING=1]Don't Panic[/HEADING]

 

[samsonguy920]

I can see optical media for game consoles getting phased out, with hard drive and flash drive technology going in leaps and bounds (saw a 8Gb flash drive for easy dollars the other day!) it would be bad to go digital distribution only for a console though. True a lot of people have the internet, but there are many on low bandwidth (dialup is still out there!) and those who dont even have a net connection(call them cavemen if you want, I'm sure JCarmack would)
Frankly I don't know what JC is smoking, but I am betting better odds that Nintendo actually comes out with the next console. I don't put much faith in dinosaur forecasting.

 

[Toty54]

I get the feeling Sony will be seriously considering leaving the home console market. They're dangerously close to a SEGA situation, and Sony could consider that they can make more money elsewhere.

How is Sony even close to SEGA situation? Considering that there adversaries either had a larger market or released one year before on Christmas. They are only 5-8 million consoles behind, and their sales ratings are higher than the Xbox 360's.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=X360&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=All&weeks=400

 

[KDR_11k]

Remember that Sony's "ten year plan", even if followed, does not mean no obsoletion, they had such a plan for the first two Playstations too. Both saw a replacement before then but kept getting made. They can very well release a PS4 in 2010 and just keep making PS3s for as long as people will buy them (which wouldn't be very long after the PS4 comes out).

 

[not a zaar]

God who wants to start thinking about "next gen" already? The current console cycle hasn't even reached it's peak and there's still the wave of motion controls to think about, that's going to extend the current gen by a few good years.

 

[Jumplion]

[HEADING=1]Don't Panic[/HEADING]

This thread is officially the best thread out there.

Whoever gets the 42nd post in this thread wins the Infinite Improbability Drive.

 

[Flunk]

Of course Sony would want to start the next console cycle as quickly as possible, they're doing the worse in this current cycle. Same thing could be said about Microsoft bringing out the 360 fairly soon after the first xbox.

 

[nathan-dts]

Isn't the PS3 already next-gen?

Next-gen = Next generation. It was next-gen before it came out and now it is current-gen.