Carmack Thinks Sony Will Go "Next-Gen" First

[AboveUp]

If Sony would go next-gen first, I'd seriously feel screwed if I owned a PS3. Your console would've cost more than the others and lasted shorter for that price.
Not a smart move.

[HEADING=1]Don't Panic[/HEADING]

You've just made the thread... and my day. Possibly my week.

 

[ChromeAlchemist]

You can get Blu-Ray players for under 200 dollars.

Though surprisingly the PS3 is a pretty good stand-alone Blu-ray player in itself. It's also upgradable (HDD wise anyway) and it updates itself improving both the blu-ray performance and other media aspects.

Besides, it's not like the PS3 is Sony's only blu-ray player [http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&categoryId=27898&XID=O:sony%20blu%20ray%20players:dg_bluray_gglsrch] on the market.

Bah, why did I have to go to the gym? Yes you're exactly right you blasted ninja!

 

[Jumplion]

You can get Blu-Ray players for under 200 dollars.

Though surprisingly the PS3 is a pretty good stand-alone Blu-ray player in itself. It's also upgradable (HDD wise anyway) and it updates itself improving both the blu-ray performance and other media aspects.

Besides, it's not like the PS3 is Sony's only blu-ray player [http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&categoryId=27898&XID=O:sony%20blu%20ray%20players:dg_bluray_gglsrch] on the market.

Bah, why did I have to go to the gym? Yes you're exactly right you blasted ninja!

YOU ARE THE FORTY-SECOND POSTER IN THIS THREAD!

Therefore, in lieu of what I said earlier;

[HEADING=1]Don't Panic[/HEADING]

This thread is officially the best thread out there.

Whoever gets the 42nd post in this thread wins the Infinite Improbability Drive.

You win! Horray!

Oh, and thanks for agreeing with me, that's also nice.

 

[ChromeAlchemist]

You can get Blu-Ray players for under 200 dollars.

Though surprisingly the PS3 is a pretty good stand-alone Blu-ray player in itself. It's also upgradable (HDD wise anyway) and it updates itself improving both the blu-ray performance and other media aspects.

Besides, it's not like the PS3 is Sony's only blu-ray player [http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&categoryId=27898&XID=O:sony%20blu%20ray%20players:dg_bluray_gglsrch] on the market.

Bah, why did I have to go to the gym? Yes you're exactly right you blasted ninja!

YOU ARE THE FORTY-SECOND POSTER IN THIS THREAD!

Therefore, in lieu of what I said earlier;

[HEADING=1]Don't Panic[/HEADING]

This thread is officially the best thread out there.

Whoever gets the 42nd post in this thread wins the Infinite Improbability Drive.

You win! Horray!

Oh, and thanks for agreeing with me, that's also nice.

OH GOD! I WIN! I WIN! IT IS CHRISTMAS!

First stop...Mos Eisley Cantina! Then the ghastly world of Helghan! Then-

[small]What do you mean they don't exist? Quiet you![/small]

[hr][HEADING=2]Mr Wharf, activate the infinite improbability drive![/HEADING][hr]

 

[Dioxide20]

I have to agree with most of the previous posts that it will not be Sony that releases a new console first, it will be Nintendo. I found the WII to not have a very lasting appeal, and that I got the most fun out of playing with friends. I don't see that Nintendo would do well to stick to the WII's poor hardware, and it's rather poor library of games.

But who knows, the WII was the first console to appeal to all generations. Maybe the very casual gamer crowd can support the console. And maybe Nintendo's vitality sensor can change the way we look at games. lol

 

[MetaKnight19]

who really cares if sony releases their 'next-gen' console first? someones going to have to set a standard if the 'next gen' and the competitors are going to have to try and best it. think about it, microsoft started this gen with the 360 when it was released too long ago for me to remember/care, nintendo have almost always managaed to release consoles before anyone else, and even bested the consoles that were then available (mega drive, turbografx16 etc). so i think its sonys turn to stand up to the challenge of kicking off the next gen. although i dont think it will happen until at least late 2010/early 2011.

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

An interesting question,that is who will be the first to bring out a new console, it can be answered in how many units are sold how well they are selling and what dose the attach rates look like.

Nintendo is cheap so a new console is out of the question for at least another 5 years, the PS3 is not that old and is slowly picking up momentum add to the fact sony is almost broke I highly doubt they would pull a sega. Unless of coarse the PS4 is a online only console but even that would defy logic when the PS3 could do that as well.

So that leaves the 360 its old but its well supported will MS wait for "a shoe to drop" before they bring out their next best box or will they bring it out in the next 3 years.

IMO MS is more likely to bring us a new console with sony number 2 and Nin dead last.

 

[Rigs83]

I think this generation will see more incremental changes than full blown new consoles cycles. If I was Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo I would eye the Onlive service and it's competitors as a very valuable asset if they find a way to implement it on a console (you can already stream videos so I see no reason why you can't stream games if the bandwith is good enough to compensate for the delay). Of course much of this hinges on the implementation of broadband suggested by Obama's stimulus bill that would speed networks nationwide and expand coverage to more rural locations. This would be much less an issue for Japan, Korea and much of Europe that have a rather robust information networks but the US is lagging behind in my opinion. Microsoft has the leg up in that regard because Live but Sony and Nintendo are not too far behind.

 

[Joshimodo]

The fact remains that because Sony won the format war, the PS3 will not be a failure, and to me, that's just the way it is. They'll gain market share near the end of it, and I think they'll get ahead of the 360. Natal is make or break for Microsoft.

EDIT: Forgot to add to that. IMHO they will not create a new generation of consoles first. I personally feel Nintendo will, and that will be around 2011-12.

Winning the format war didn't change anything though, since nothing has been developed to utilise the amount of storage available on Blu-Ray. By the time we do, internet speeds will likely be fast enough to allow direct downloads.

I agree fully on the Nintendo part however. They have the brand power that they did in the early 90's, if not more. Couple that with the infinity-billion cash-generator they made, I think they'll end up first in line.

 

[ChromeAlchemist]

The fact remains that because Sony won the format war, the PS3 will not be a failure, and to me, that's just the way it is. They'll gain market share near the end of it, and I think they'll get ahead of the 360. Natal is make or break for Microsoft.

EDIT: Forgot to add to that. IMHO they will not create a new generation of consoles first. I personally feel Nintendo will, and that will be around 2011-12.

Winning the format war didn't change anything though, since nothing has been developed to utilise the amount of storage available on Blu-Ray. By the time we do, internet speeds will likely be fast enough to allow direct downloads.

I agree fully on the Nintendo part however. They have the brand power that they did in the early 90's, if not more. Couple that with the infinity-billion cash-generator they made, I think they'll end up first in line.

If you ask me, direct downloads are NOT going to phase out physical storage, not for a long, long time. Blu Ray will have plenty of time to come into it's own before direct downloads come into prominence. Hell look how long it took for videos to be phased out once DVDs came into the fray.

EDIT: The same can be said for HDTVs as well. People said that they wouldn't be adopted by the mainstream, because by the time they were popular, there would be a better alternative.

 

[toasterslayer]

I think that nintendo will make a new console. Then Microsoft a year or three later. I have no idea when Sony will. But I'd bet they'll wait until the ps3 gains a large enough profit.

 

[Arkengetorix]

Once developers figure out how to code properly for the PS3, Sony will just send PS4 stickers to all their customers.

 

[Fearzone]

The ps3 is ahead of its time already. The world just needs to catch up. Just because he can't program for it just means he needs to stop making boring rail shooters that everyone is making nowadays and try something different.

 

[hailmagus]

I find that very unlikely that Sony would make the first move. I've read an article myself in GameInformer that basically says that all developers want to take the (average) five year life span and stretch it to ten. All except for Nintendo, which has said themselves that they (Japan) has to constantly come out with newer, fresher products because the Japanese consumer gets very bored, very quickly. Odd that Playstation is a Japanese made product too, but they don't hold it in the same regard. hmm? And Nintendo has already said in the past... I think shortly after the release of Twilight Princess that they've basically done everything they set out to do with the Wii, meaning they've pushed all of the peripherals they wanted to and met their goals. Nintendo's going to make the first step people. Nintendo.

How about a proper Star Fox game?

PS2's almost made the ten year mark itself. So you can bet your ass the other guys are going to try and do the same (except for Nintendo's cheaply ass made products) You know everyone's fearing the next generation of gaming, because of how much it already costs to make a video game. Can you imagine triple the cost of your average(current gen) video game? No... no you can not.

Fagehtabowtit!

 

[Joos]

Beyond that, Carmack thinks that this may be the last generation that uses optical media (read: discs, whether DVD or Blu-Ray) and at least one of the next-generation consoles may well run entirely on digital distribution.

Well, whatever console that comes out that no longer supports physical, tangible media and a clear sense of ownership when my cash is exchanged, that particular console manufacturer will definetly NOT get my money. For full, proper games, I want physical media. Small arcady games is fine for PSN or Xbox Live, but full price games, digital distribution is not going to cut it.

Forgot to add to that. IMHO they will not create a new generation of consoles first. I personally feel Nintendo will, and that will be around 2011-12.

Well, considering the Wii is not really current gen even, I don't think it would be fair to call the next Nintendo console 'next generation'. TBH, I think the current Wii struggles to keep up with the first gen Xbox, performance wise. Nintendo really isn't in the generation competition at all, they are doing their own thing.

 

[Digikid]

Well, not to try and start something, but you could very much consider the PS3 a failure, when you compare it to the PS1 and PS2. So it would only make sense if Sony are the ones to try and rush to get their next console out first.

Very true. SO far Sony has not got a good console out yet. The PS2 is inferior to the Xbox and the 360 is still better then the PS3....although the PS3 makes a great BR Player.

 

[ChromeAlchemist]

Beyond that, Carmack thinks that this may be the last generation that uses optical media (read: discs, whether DVD or Blu-Ray) and at least one of the next-generation consoles may well run entirely on digital distribution.

Well, whatever console that comes out that no longer supports physical, tangible media and a clear sense of ownership when my cash is exchanged, that particular console manufacturer will definetly NOT get my money. For full, proper games, I want physical media. Small arcady games is fine for PSN or Xbox Live, but full price games, digital distribution is not going to cut it.

Forgot to add to that. IMHO they will not create a new generation of consoles first. I personally feel Nintendo will, and that will be around 2011-12.

Well, considering the Wii is not really current gen even, I don't think it would be fair to call the next Nintendo console 'next generation'. TBH, I think the current Wii struggles to keep up with the first gen Xbox, performance wise. Nintendo really isn't in the generation competition at all, they are doing their own thing.

That's a fairly ignorant statement I'm sorry to say. The Wii is a seventh generation console. I don't care if it had the power of a Nintendo DS, it's still a current generation console. It's not a competition, once you've created a console in this generation, it's a seventh generation console.

Christ, first the Wii was not 'next gen' now it's not current gen. *rambles on*

 

[John Funk]

Yes, it didn't 'boom' from the get-go, like the other two did, but this is a different generation altogether, and this one is a slow burner.

You know, I decided to test this. Personally, if I remember correctly, the PS3 was selling at around the same rate as the PS2 did in its first couple of years.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS&reg3=All&weeks=156

I think we should take PS1 out of the equation since back then you could sell much less than right now and still be successful. But as you can see, the PS3 and PS2 lines are actually quite similar in the first couple of weeks. Then we get a big spike in the PS2, that was probably when the competition dropped out or something, but I would hardly call either of them "starting with a boom" as most people suggest.

Just something I've noticed, not trying to be a smart ass here or anything.

EDIT: And lets look at the PS2's life so far;

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS&reg3=All&weeks=400

The PS3 still has a ways to go before it's canceled, that much we all know. But I find an interesting pattern with the PS2, every couple of weeks there's a bump in the line so it's like stairs or something. Just an interesting pattern, the PS3 has something similar albeit not as high as the Ps2.

Wouldn't it make sense that those "stairs" are respective yearly holiday seasons?

 

[HentMas]

Technically second to be released, the Wii was released 2 days after the PS3, but eh.

actually Nintendo released (IMO) it´s next gen console first wich was the game cube, the wii only added motion sensor and other software to the console, but the propper "next gen" in my opinion was game cube. (seing this from the point of view that "next gen" are "better Graphics") and asuming the "Game Cube" was the "better Graphics" and the future console war will be about "motion sensor", Nintendo already launched it´s "NEXT NEXT gen"

 

[Joos]

That's a fairly ignorant statement I'm sorry to say. The Wii is a seventh generation console. I don't care if it had the power of a Nintendo DS, it's still a current generation console. It's not a competition, once you've created a console in this generation, it's a seventh generation console.

Christ, first the Wii was not 'next gen' now it's not current gen. *rambles on*

Well, in essence you are correct, this generation nintendo is obviously the current generation nintendo. Can't aruge with that, really. However, you conveniently ignore the heart of my post, which is that when you usually talk about console and generations, in the past, it was usually a performance metric as well. The NES was comparable to that Sega thing. The SNES was comparable to the Mega Drive, and the xbox, the ps2 and the Dreamcast were all comparable in what sort of quality graphics you got on the screen. The generation discussion makes sense and all the consoles were mostly equal in graphical performance.

However, with the Wii, nintendo took a clear and definite step away from this metric. IE, only the 360 and the PS3 have actually improved since the last generation, while the Wii is merely a Gamecube with a fancy new IO system and a weekend away on steroids (a slight chip overclock due to a smaller fab process). This is clearly shown in the comparatively drab graphics and shoddy performance.

That's what I mean when I say its not even current gen, since it has basicly ignored what used to be the console bit-race, and now suffer from being the least played console of all time, even though its the biggest selling one. Nice dust collector though, I am sure.