Corvid-19 and its impact (name edit)
- Thread starter Saint of M
- Start date
No.CaitSeith said:
The trick here is to predict something very likely to happen. Someone who looks through history will note that certain things happen again, and again, and again. All you need to do is say "X will happen" in a wide enough timeframe, and you will almost certainly be right.
Major new diseases that attack the lungs and aren't readily treatable actually occur quite frequently. Covid-19 is at least the fourth in 20 years; and they do tend to effectively disappear, either through infection control or by populations developing immunity.
It's not that dissimilar to cold reading: a good "psychic" should be able to make a lot of educated guesses about a person by their dress, mannerisms, speech, body language etc. Then they can float ideas based on these and let confirmation bias do the rest.
Karma's a *****, eh, Boris.Marik2 said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/06/hospital-admission-puts-new-focus-on-boris-johnsons-health
So Boris first says its not a big deal, then he goes on to tell everyone to just get the virus to get herd immunity, then he goes into the hospital where they're fighting it and SHAKES EVERYONE'S HANDS. And much like other world leaders he should have been preparing for this in January? Now the poor silly bastard is fighting for his life in the intensive care? He probably can see its pretty obvious he should have done some things differently now.
So I guess you can say hindsight really is 2020.
(Im sorry)
So I guess you can say hindsight really is 2020.
(Im sorry)
Ha, pay that one.Fieldy409 said:
But yeah, must be something of a shock for him that mismanaging a problem hasn't just hurt ordinary people.
I hate to break it to everyone, but whilst Boris is in intensive care, apparently he does not have pneumonia and doesn't require a ventilator, so it's not that serious... at least yet.
A little part of me does wonder in that case whether he needs to be blocking an ICU bed, though. Another little part of me wonders that if there aren't enough ventilators and he does end up needing one, wouldn't it be karma if there aren't enough for all the patients and they decide someone else needs it more.
Deep in my heart, however, I know perfectly well even if he's 99% likely to die with a ventilator, if there aren't enough ventilators he'll get one anyway and some poor sod with a better chance will be thrown to the wolves. They will feel the need to be seen to be saving him, and they can bullshit up an excuse for not doing what was medical best practice at their convenience.
A little part of me does wonder in that case whether he needs to be blocking an ICU bed, though. Another little part of me wonders that if there aren't enough ventilators and he does end up needing one, wouldn't it be karma if there aren't enough for all the patients and they decide someone else needs it more.
Deep in my heart, however, I know perfectly well even if he's 99% likely to die with a ventilator, if there aren't enough ventilators he'll get one anyway and some poor sod with a better chance will be thrown to the wolves. They will feel the need to be seen to be saving him, and they can bullshit up an excuse for not doing what was medical best practice at their convenience.
Fuck me. It looks like the Prime Minister of Australia is getting ready to take us to the point where if it works too well and stops the spread, he ends qurantine to let it spread some more, deliberately trying to trickle us through the available hospital beds sacrificing the people who die in the hospital for the economy....
Thats the question isn't it, if theres no vaccine and qurantine worked too well we'd end up in a situation where we are stuck inside for years, or they start letting it spread....
In the clip they're calling it "Wicked choices." Guys they're going to kill all our grandparents and vulnerable for the economy if we don't get a vaccine.
Seriously, f*** that! It makes the definition of "not weak" as having the supernatural power to will your body back to health from severe injuries or life-threatening illness without hospitalization. At least Boris now is certain that he doesn't have it; and if he survives, hopefully that will bring him a couple pegs down his pedestal.Lykosia said:
Given how much hand shaking, face touching, and disregard for minimal safe distance I honestly hope Trump gets it like Boris simply because it might push things along faster.
If nothing else, his actions or lack thereof has given his opponents plenty of ammunition come Novemmber.
If nothing else, his actions or lack thereof has given his opponents plenty of ammunition come Novemmber.
I've already heard a pundit asking for Fox News demographics and seeing if that ends up predicting new epicenters due to bad advice.kevenzo said:
I heard Milwaukee went from 180 polling stations to 5 due to people not willing to work. So lines were stupendously massive. I wonder what Shapiro will have to say about this
In my country, we just had local elections. Polling booth were open for a whole week to allow better social distancing. But hey, cant modify the constitution to make people safe, now can we
In Ireland we have a pretty unique situation. We had an election 2 months ago. But because the second and third most popular parties (right and center right) refuse to work with the most popular party (left) and the smaller parties are largely left leaning and will support either a cross party unity government for the duration of the crisis with the aim of another election after or a coalition with Sinn Fein. Both of which Fine Gael and Fianna Fail refuse to entertain. Every government in almost a century has been headed by either FG or FF so it's a pretty naked power grab, attempting to push out the only party that can actually compete with them.
Sinn Fein's leader is the only one who would have had enough support to become taoiseach on the day the Dail voted if another large party supported her. With the votes last time no other party leader could become Taoiseach without the support of an entire major party and a smattering of independents. Even with all of Sinn Fein's support FF's leader would not have gotten enough votes to be Taoiseach. Of course his issue is that if he doesn't become Taoiseach he will be the first FF leader in history not to do so. In fact FG and FF's leaders didn't even get as many votes as seats they hold in parliament. SF is the only party that got more votes than it has seats.
So the most popular party by votes and the most popular leader in our parliament has no chance of being in government because the second and third most popular parties, many of whom's TD's didn't even hit the quota of votes needed, who's leaders don't even have the full support of their party are insisting that the only government that can work is a coalition between them and a third smaller party There's literally only one other smaller party that would give them enough seats.. Also important to note that during the election FF said they would never go into coalition with FG and now it is the ONLY government they will accept. So we have a total deadlock and can't form a government. And obviously we can't have another election.
So what we have is our previous government, a Fine Gael minority government, that already stepped down, is acting in a "caretaker" capacity until a new government can be formed. Many of their TD's actually lost their seats but are still in their ministerial positions until a new government can be formed. Fine Gael have since given themselves the power to sign emergency legislation limiting the rights of citizens with no end date specified beyond as long as we're facing the coronavirus crisis which is, you know, worryingly vague. Last night they passed laws that will allow the police to arrest people more than 2km from their homes for any "unnecessary" reasons and the penalties are 6 months in prison or a 2.5k fine. Laws which, again, can only be lifted when the (unelected) government decides that they're good and ready.
Sorry, but America and The UK keep stealing all of the "our leaders are evil fucks exploiting a crisis for political gain" thunder and it's starting to bother me.
When we have a party founded by these nice chaps giving themselves absolute power until this crisis is resolved.
Sinn Fein's leader is the only one who would have had enough support to become taoiseach on the day the Dail voted if another large party supported her. With the votes last time no other party leader could become Taoiseach without the support of an entire major party and a smattering of independents. Even with all of Sinn Fein's support FF's leader would not have gotten enough votes to be Taoiseach. Of course his issue is that if he doesn't become Taoiseach he will be the first FF leader in history not to do so. In fact FG and FF's leaders didn't even get as many votes as seats they hold in parliament. SF is the only party that got more votes than it has seats.
So the most popular party by votes and the most popular leader in our parliament has no chance of being in government because the second and third most popular parties, many of whom's TD's didn't even hit the quota of votes needed, who's leaders don't even have the full support of their party are insisting that the only government that can work is a coalition between them and a third smaller party There's literally only one other smaller party that would give them enough seats.. Also important to note that during the election FF said they would never go into coalition with FG and now it is the ONLY government they will accept. So we have a total deadlock and can't form a government. And obviously we can't have another election.
So what we have is our previous government, a Fine Gael minority government, that already stepped down, is acting in a "caretaker" capacity until a new government can be formed. Many of their TD's actually lost their seats but are still in their ministerial positions until a new government can be formed. Fine Gael have since given themselves the power to sign emergency legislation limiting the rights of citizens with no end date specified beyond as long as we're facing the coronavirus crisis which is, you know, worryingly vague. Last night they passed laws that will allow the police to arrest people more than 2km from their homes for any "unnecessary" reasons and the penalties are 6 months in prison or a 2.5k fine. Laws which, again, can only be lifted when the (unelected) government decides that they're good and ready.
Sorry, but America and The UK keep stealing all of the "our leaders are evil fucks exploiting a crisis for political gain" thunder and it's starting to bother me.
When we have a party founded by these nice chaps giving themselves absolute power until this crisis is resolved.
Yep.Fieldy409 said:
And, hard as it may be to say, it's probably the right thing to do.
If we put the economy on life support for too long, it's almost certainly going to rack up enough problems that it will end up the death of a load of people anyway. I think every country's aim is to control the spread at a slow enough rate that the health system can cope, up to the point a vaccine is available. We'll probably end up with partial measures (restrictions on movement and large gatherings) of some sort for a long time anyway.
We could probably arrange some other way of doing things, but they might be extremely difficult. Imagine we locked down the world for a year, and effectively almost every country had to increase their national debts 50-100% GDP to cope. There would be consequences for that: some countries would go bust, and the ruin would impose a huge toll of misery and death.
Yeah but like, I might be vulnerable(I was a premature baby and could have had chronic bronchitis), and my parents certainly are. I'm not going out when they give the all clear I'ma isolate for a couple more weeks at least as much as I can and I wager millions or even billions will do the same. Sure there will be people dancing in the streets probably but many of us will see what's happening and refuse to risk us and our loved ones for the economy.
So how much will this even save the economy? It's taking a huge hit no matter what.
So how much will this even save the economy? It's taking a huge hit no matter what.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+19+deaths&oq=covid+19+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.7109j0j4&client=ms-android-telstra-au-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#wptab=s:H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgVuLVT9c3NMwySk6OL8zJecTozS3w8sc9YSmnSWtOXmO04eIKzsgvd80rySypFNLjYoOyVLgEpVB1ajBI8XOhCvHsYuL2SE3MKckILkksKV7EKpicX5Sfl1iWWVRarFAMEgMAoubRkIEAAAA
So what the hell is going on with those recovery to death ratios? It looks like in some countries your odds of recovery are lower than 50% and in other countries you have well over 90% odds of surving.....
So what the hell is going on with those recovery to death ratios? It looks like in some countries your odds of recovery are lower than 50% and in other countries you have well over 90% odds of surving.....
a) I disagree with Agema about waiting for a vaccine. I think cases are being undercounted by a lot, and within a couple months there won't be enough vulnerable people left to have a spike again. Consider the swine flu, there were like 10k deaths in the US, tens to hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases, but with hindsight and antibody testing, the CDC estimates 60 million people contracted swine flu that year. I'm not saying that and this are comparable in severity, but it's an illustration that a deadly disease can work its way through a population while being measured in less than 1% of those who ultimately develop an immunity. They've only recently started doing the statistically appropriate testing to estimate how much cov-sars-2 has penetrated the world population, we could easily already be through half of everyone alive and just not know it yet. Conventional wisdom suggests its wise to plan ahead, but in this circumstance, I recommend only worrying about 1 day at a time as the information might change dramatically at any moment. I've heard people planning on not sending their kids back to school in the fall due to fears of covid-19, and even if that ends up being appropriate, there's absolutely no reason to think about that now.Fieldy409 said:
b) It's not about the economic hit. It really isn't. Unemployment can lead to depression and suicide regardless of whether people's basic needs are met. Productivity is a real psychological human need, and people without specific talents can't even volunteer in lockdown. Chronic anxiety is a serious problem, people living for months in fear of the virus are going to develop issues, and weaken their immune system if they were to get sick. Children are missing out on formative socialization. Infrastructure in some places is being disregarded. Letting open the gates on returning to normalcy is a risk to your loved ones, that is true. Locking them inside is also a risk to your loved ones. The more time that passes, the lower the first risk becomes, and the higher the second risk becomes, and wherever the first risk is less than the second, we'll open things back up. It's not just an economic issue to do otherwise.
Those numbers are basically meaningless. If one country does a lot of testing in non-hospitalized cases, and follows up to mark off when they recover, they'll have a high recovery rate. If another country tests only the people in critical condition, they'll have a terrible recovery rate. We're just not able to know in this moment what the real danger to any individual is.Fieldy409 said:
20% that they measured, likely a lot more than that. Feel free to celebrate, that means it's much less deadly and much closer to over than projected.CaitSeith said:
It's a sort of paradox. We take preventative measures, hoping to prevent infections to keep the healthcare system from being overrun. Now that we're seeing the infections level off, it's better to hope that we mostly failed to contain it. The damage is what it is. It's funny to do things as though our lives depend on it while simultaneously hoping we didn't succeed too much.