I love this prediction because it borders on insane.
We now have someone claiming that console gaming is dying within the next 10 years or so? So.... the largest entertainment industry in the world at this point is going to die? Nice prediction. Just like TV killed the radion.... oh wait..... there are lots of radio stations left, even on AM radio.
/rant end
OT: You won't see an end to the videogame industry anytime soon. You may see an end to Sony and Microsoft Systems, but a company will come along that won't make these same mistakes. And it's not the piracy and used game sales that's killing it. It is, as Jaffe points out, the $60 game model though. I have predicted that since the current generation came out. You have to make games worth that much in order for people to buy them, and not much is worth of it. And while I hate to point it out, you should probably register a game to a user ID. It happens all the time on the PC, it has been for years. That is the medium they can't really put down. In the last 10 years, I have heard the prediction of the death of PC Gaming three times. And each time the medium bounces back. Now EA is saying that PC Game development may be their primary format in the future. Good luck convincing Steam the PC market is dying as well.
The gaming companies are frivolous in the their spending habits, and like anything that is over invested into, there is such a thing as diminishing returns. Invest $5 Million seems to get companies as much a return as $30 million, but the software has to be worth while. Most of the current generation of console gaming is all flash but fails in some very basic ways to perform. My biggest pet peeve is short games personally, and good luck finding any game that lasts more than 5-8 hours. Then it jumps to the extreme at 60+ hours. These are broken models. How about an RPG that lasts 30 hours. In the Super Nintendo generation, the average RPG length for me about 24 hours. Some of my fondest RPG memories are from that generation. I am tired of hearing about titles referred to as "Triple A" titles. This is just synonymous with more expensive to make. Then you have to sell 2 million units to break even. That should say something to companies, but it doesn't because they are mostly inept business men who don't know anything about actual gaming.
I could sit here and name games that have huge profit margins, but it's not worth while because no one who makes any decisions regarding these things will ever see it. But I know the gaming community knows what I'm talking about.
As a final note, if David Jaffe thinks the industry that has made him famous is dead, he should leave then. I have dealt with that attitude in other areas as well. If he is convinced it's going to fail, he is going to help it fail and not try to save it. You see this all the time in gaming. Someone thinks your team is going to lose so they stop trying. I would rather never see another game from the guy rather than a lousy title because his team is losing.
We now have someone claiming that console gaming is dying within the next 10 years or so? So.... the largest entertainment industry in the world at this point is going to die? Nice prediction. Just like TV killed the radion.... oh wait..... there are lots of radio stations left, even on AM radio.
/rant end
OT: You won't see an end to the videogame industry anytime soon. You may see an end to Sony and Microsoft Systems, but a company will come along that won't make these same mistakes. And it's not the piracy and used game sales that's killing it. It is, as Jaffe points out, the $60 game model though. I have predicted that since the current generation came out. You have to make games worth that much in order for people to buy them, and not much is worth of it. And while I hate to point it out, you should probably register a game to a user ID. It happens all the time on the PC, it has been for years. That is the medium they can't really put down. In the last 10 years, I have heard the prediction of the death of PC Gaming three times. And each time the medium bounces back. Now EA is saying that PC Game development may be their primary format in the future. Good luck convincing Steam the PC market is dying as well.
The gaming companies are frivolous in the their spending habits, and like anything that is over invested into, there is such a thing as diminishing returns. Invest $5 Million seems to get companies as much a return as $30 million, but the software has to be worth while. Most of the current generation of console gaming is all flash but fails in some very basic ways to perform. My biggest pet peeve is short games personally, and good luck finding any game that lasts more than 5-8 hours. Then it jumps to the extreme at 60+ hours. These are broken models. How about an RPG that lasts 30 hours. In the Super Nintendo generation, the average RPG length for me about 24 hours. Some of my fondest RPG memories are from that generation. I am tired of hearing about titles referred to as "Triple A" titles. This is just synonymous with more expensive to make. Then you have to sell 2 million units to break even. That should say something to companies, but it doesn't because they are mostly inept business men who don't know anything about actual gaming.
I could sit here and name games that have huge profit margins, but it's not worth while because no one who makes any decisions regarding these things will ever see it. But I know the gaming community knows what I'm talking about.
As a final note, if David Jaffe thinks the industry that has made him famous is dead, he should leave then. I have dealt with that attitude in other areas as well. If he is convinced it's going to fail, he is going to help it fail and not try to save it. You see this all the time in gaming. Someone thinks your team is going to lose so they stop trying. I would rather never see another game from the guy rather than a lousy title because his team is losing.