David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

[Blackglasswar]

One solution which I think would make sense is if the publishers started their own used games output (can you imagine EA-bay). The premise is simple... publishers don't get money for used games sales so why not offer used games direct from "users", with a small profit going to the publisher with each sale? The steps are laid out below

User X
1. Oh yay - I got a game for Xmas/ Birthday
2. Oh no - I've finished it and will never play it again
3. Oh look - someone else wants to play it but not buy it at full price
4. Oh wow - "publisher X" will give me £15 for this game as it is near mint condition if I sell and post it to "user Y"

User Y
5. Oh cool - I can ask "publisher X" for a used copy of "game A"
6. Oh Sweet - I can get "game a" for £20 used from "user x"

Publisher X
7. Oh SNAP!!! We have a great fanbase and can keep making games!

Obviously criteria will need setting for what is "near mint" (original everything, no damage), "good condition" (original everything, some wear and tear, and "playable" (disc works, case bust, no manual) but I think it would help out publishers who are losing out on 550,000 sales due to used games!

 

[SinisterGehe]

With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

Tabletop?

Nah, I think this is the situation like "Which company will take over the world, Apple or Microsoft. Pepsi or Coca-cola..." Etc.

At the end of the days someone will end up being right, other will die and other will stay. And I wont name which one will be the one going...

But I think expensive games will be gone soon, people are more willing to pay monthly fees scattered in wide spread of time. And small Indie companies are pushing big bugs with cheap games in which the content is the primary.

 

[Aurgelmir]

I predict the next generation will be a download based console, where the bulk of games are bought through the Stores.

Though if that happens we would loose the DVD/BluRay player bonus of this generation... but I guess we will have to survive.

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

Uhg...... piracy is a strawman. There is not enough of it to do any real damage,obscurity and region locks/price gouging do far more damage to potential profits than piracy ever has.

I kinda wish the console war model would go away and games were made for universal hardware like films but for that to happen publishers will have to get off their feet and work together to whack the 3 main mob families Sony/MS/Nintendo.

We are still a good 10 years away from a huge change the console war model.

 

[ThePeaceFrog]

I agree with him, in the sense that I don't think any piece of technology designed for one specific purpose has much time left in it in a world thats becoming increasing dominated by multi-purpose applications. I also don't think its something to particularly cry about either.

 

[Roxor]

Who pays $60 for a game? I don't think I've ever paid that much. $50, back in the 1990s for Apogee games, sure, but no more than that unless it was a pack with multiple games in it. Heck, I rarely pay more than $15 for games on Steam and put anything over $30 into the "wait for a sale" pile. The only exception I've made so far is Portal 2, which I'm sure enough that I'll like, that I'm willing to pay the $45 Valve is charging for a pre-order.

 

[munx13]

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

Don't make me laugh. In the end, silent movies will reign supreme.

 

[the Dept of Science]

I can see this current generation being the last. Not because it's dying, but because there's really nowhere to go.

What are they going to do? More graphics and processing power? They can't use what is currently available and are driving themselves into the ground trying.

Barring some dramatic change in the very nature of game play, there's really no reasonable reason to have one.

I second this opinion. I know there's a recurring theme in history of people claiming that there isn't much further we can go in a certain area before being proved horribly wrong (see "I see a day when the world will only need 5 computers"). Games can render entire worlds in great detail nowadays. It's impossible for graphics to improve like they did when they stepped up from PS2 to PS3. Graphics and physics engines need only fine tuning, a major step forwards would be impossible. Even the recent changes in the nature of play seem to have been accounted for with peripherals, for example the shift from controller to motion control.
The only thing I can imagine there being a need for an upgrade would be, say accurate AI simulations (could the AI race be the new graphics race?).

 

[RoBi3.0]

With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

Tabletop?

Nah, I think this is the situation like "Which company will take over the world, Apple or Microsoft. Pepsi or Coca-cola..." Etc.

At the end of the days someone will end up being right, other will die and other will stay. And I wont name which one will be the one going...

But I think expensive games will be gone soon, people are more willing to pay monthly fees scattered in wide spread of time. And small Indie companies are pushing big bugs with cheap games in which the content is the primary.

Pff... Everyone know the answer to which company will take over the world Pepsi or Coca-cola is.... neither Dr Pepper rules all.

I am not sure why industry insiders get a kick out of Doom saying. Gaming will be here until the end the gaming device it takes place doesn't matter.

Consoles are a huge market right now and I don't think anything can kill it unless it is a better platform.

 

[Baresark]

Why do people think that if it weren't for pre-owned and piracy these people would go out and buy full price retail?

I don't pirate games any more, I still rarely pay full price. I can wait. For prices to drop, for a sale or both. Steam christmas sale has filled my collection, I still have 5 games that I bought then and haven't played yet.

I think that a large portion of the problem of what your saying is that the game industry, by and large, ignores sales after the first few months. I have made the point that games keep selling for years after release, but no one seems to care. If a game needs to sell 500,000 units to break even, the company only looks at the first 4 months it was out, then declares it a failure if it undersells. Forget that at the sixth month mark(before the price drops), it may hit that number, then over the course of the next few years, it sells twice that many units, even at a cheaper price point, it's still turning a profit for the company.

Also, Why is piracy and pre-owned games such a big culprit of poor sales, but it's ok if you wait for the price to drop, or to wait for a Steam super sale? According the companies, they need to sell x units at y price in z time. If this formula is not met, they consider it a failure. What if someone pirates it, then waits for a Steam super sale? They are doing the exact same thing you are by just waiting. I'm just making a point, and not trying to be argumentative. You can't just say A,B, and C are a problem, but not D, when all the options don't net the company the price they want for the game.

 

[marblemadness]

Why fix what isnt broken? I love this $60 model. I'm quite happy with my gaming experience as it is!

 

[Ivan Torres]

So this is why the world is going to end in 2012, us gamers are going to have nothing else left.

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

BREAKING NEWS! Shycte has just stated that Radios will reign supreme!! WILL THIS HAPPEN!! KEEP WATCHING FAUX NEWS TO FIND OUT!

 

[Originality]

I'm still waiting for full immersion gaming to get on track. People know it's coming, and the technology for it (whether it's holo displays or simply soft-panel walls) is steadily progressing. PC and console gaming will only "die" as such when we can leave behind our TV sets and instead turn our very rooms into game worlds.

As for Facebook and Mobile games... to me it feels like a fad, just like reality TV. They're fun for now, but people will soon grow bored of them.

 

[Baresark]

I can see this current generation being the last. Not because it's dying, but because there's really nowhere to go.

What are they going to do? More graphics and processing power? They can't use what is currently available and are driving themselves into the ground trying.

Barring some dramatic change in the very nature of game play, there's really no reasonable reason to have one.

I second this opinion. I know there's a recurring theme in history of people claiming that there isn't much further we can go in a certain area before being proved horribly wrong (see "I see a day when the world will only need 5 computers"). Games can render entire worlds in great detail nowadays. It's impossible for graphics to improve like they did when they stepped up from PS2 to PS3. Graphics and physics engines need only fine tuning, a major step forwards would be impossible. Even the recent changes in the nature of play seem to have been accounted for with peripherals, for example the shift from controller to motion control.
The only thing I can imagine there being a need for an upgrade would be, say accurate AI simulations (could the AI race be the new graphics race?).

As it stands now, Consoles are at least a generation behind current PC's. Consoles could use a new iteration. I think the same thing about graphics every few years myself though. They couldn't get any better than they are now, or Just a few minor tweaks and it will be perfect. In the 90's, FMV games were all the rage, and I thought that would be the epitome of what games would become, but now you couldn't even watch those FMV games, it would be painful. There is always room for improvement. And substantial improvement at that. Graphically, DirectX 11 completely blows away DirectX 10, and I didn't see that coming at all.

 

[mcnally86]

Betamax, Lazerdisk, HD-DVD: all failed video storage devices. Movie media always moves to the technology that porn it recorded on, all others fail. Analysts aren't sure if its because the Porn Industry picks a media that easy to work with and develop for at home, or people just really like buying porn. Its a "what came first the chicken of the fuzzy handcuffs" question. Sorry, if there had been girls gone wild lazerdisks instead of DVD's the world would be a different place.
All we who play games can do it wait for the dating sims to make a decision and jump on to that technology.

 

[Phishfood]

I think that a large portion of the problem of what your saying is that the game industry, by and large, ignores sales after the first few months. I have made the point that games keep selling for years after release, but no one seems to care. If a game needs to sell 500,000 units to break even, the company only looks at the first 4 months it was out, then declares it a failure if it undersells. Forget that at the sixth month mark(before the price drops), it may hit that number, then over the course of the next few years, it sells twice that many units, even at a cheaper price point, it's still turning a profit for the company.

Also, Why is piracy and pre-owned games such a big culprit of poor sales, but it's ok if you wait for the price to drop, or to wait for a Steam super sale? According the companies, they need to sell x units at y price in z time. If this formula is not met, they consider it a failure. What if someone pirates it, then waits for a Steam super sale? They are doing the exact same thing you are by just waiting. I'm just making a point, and not trying to be argumentative. You can't just say A,B, and C are a problem, but not D, when all the options don't net the company the price they want for the game.

Yeah we seem to be on the same page. Also, I thought up another "pro piracy" point the other week. I just remembered it. If people getting a game for free is wrecking the games industry, why haven't libraries wrecked the publishing industry? Books have nothing to stop them being lent,resold and copied (other than the fact that copying a book probably costs the same as buying one) and yet, new books do as well as they ever have. Look at JK Rowling.

 

[Aurgelmir]

I predict the next generation will be a download based console, where the bulk of games are bought through the Stores.

Though if that happens we would loose the DVD/BluRay player bonus of this generation... but I guess we will have to survive.

i think it will be similar. But we will be getting everything through that one device (tv films and games). Sony will be lucky in this situation because they have knowledge of other home devices that they could carry across. But i think it will live or die on how user friendly the interface is.

Also yeah the AAA games industry is going to slow down somewhat. Maybe not disapear, but don't expect to see anywhere near the number of titles currently released.

You are saying that my TV and console will be one device?

I strongly and highly doubt that. My TV cost twice as much as my Console, and I dount Sony or anyone else will risk asking me to fork up more money for EVEN ANOTHER TYPE OF TV.

First we got HD, then not long after everyone have HD they start pushing 3D, and can you expect Average Joe to pay for a new TV every console generation?

There has existed TVs with integrated video and such before... there is a reason why it never became an endless hit

 

[GonzoGamer]

Developers can solve this problem by lowering the prices. It's as simple as that. Sorry, Jaffe. I don't agree with you on this one.

It's not just the developers.

It's the used game retailers. They need to bring the prices of used games back down to a reasonable level. People have been buying used games since games came out. The only reason it's become such an issue now is because the value of it has been voided for the consumer.

So where 10 years ago someone could go to a game store (even a gamestop at that time) and be able to buy one or two used games And a new game with their money, now they would only be able to afford the new game or the used game. As long as used games are given a price so close to the new price and a trade in value that is so low, developers will lose money. Why? because gamers will have less money to spend on new games.

And as long as people still put up with it, they're just going to make it worse.

Developers also have to stop trying to be so clever (in other words: trying to trick us out of our money). These practices of selling 'on-line passes,' overpriced day one dlc on the disc (including gameplay pre-order dlc), and other fees tend to turn off some consumers. I was ready to buy LA Noir until I found that I wouldn't be getting all the gameplay available no matter where I bought it from.

Of course it would also help if these developers would actually make games that are worth the initial $60 investment. Make a solid product and people will buy it: that goes for games and consoles. If the console makers keep making us decide between a machine that's likely to break or a machine that gets terrible support, I wouldn't be surprised if consoles disappear.

 

[Baresark]

I think that a large portion of the problem of what your saying is that the game industry, by and large, ignores sales after the first few months. I have made the point that games keep selling for years after release, but no one seems to care. If a game needs to sell 500,000 units to break even, the company only looks at the first 4 months it was out, then declares it a failure if it undersells. Forget that at the sixth month mark(before the price drops), it may hit that number, then over the course of the next few years, it sells twice that many units, even at a cheaper price point, it's still turning a profit for the company.

Also, Why is piracy and pre-owned games such a big culprit of poor sales, but it's ok if you wait for the price to drop, or to wait for a Steam super sale? According the companies, they need to sell x units at y price in z time. If this formula is not met, they consider it a failure. What if someone pirates it, then waits for a Steam super sale? They are doing the exact same thing you are by just waiting. I'm just making a point, and not trying to be argumentative. You can't just say A,B, and C are a problem, but not D, when all the options don't net the company the price they want for the game.

Yeah we seem to be on the same page. Also, I thought up another "pro piracy" point the other week. I just remembered it. If people getting a game for free is wrecking the games industry, why haven't libraries wrecked the publishing industry? Books have nothing to stop them being lent,resold and copied (other than the fact that copying a book probably costs the same as buying one) and yet, new books do as well as they ever have. Look at JK Rowling.

Exactly my friend. That is a fine example, and actually, the reverse is true. While books sales are still good, libraries are actually failing institutions. Not that I'm happy about that mind you, but that seems to be the way it is. Borders is going out of business, but I think that is a failing of the Books/Music/Movies theme. The books are the only thing reasonably priced at those places, and all those CD's and Movies that you can buy at a bunch of places for much cheaper. Also, constantly increasing prices isn't economically viable for a bunch of reason, but it stands to reason that as time goes on, and a medium grows, it should become cheaper to produce, not more expensive. The refinement of the production cost should trump inflation every step of the way. But too many of these industries fall prey to frivolous spending, increasing the costs of production.