David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

[Aedrial]

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

Pft... Radio is already dead... Viva La Books!

 

[qou2600]

Well I can see the industry shying away from packaged games and going with down-loadable games. The only problem with that is that not everyone has the internet. A solution I propose is that retail stores should have in-store consoles that allow you download a game to your hard-drive. You can just remove your hard-drive from you console bring it into the store and download you games to it.

 

[TheAngryMonkey]

He's an idiot end of story. This whole article was him generating press to ensure his bottom line.

Enough with this used games debate, if I buy something it's mine and if I want to sell it to someone else I will.

Have I bought the game, or just signed a lifetime lease agreement that states that I must hold this game in my possession till I die? And upon your death all gaming related materials, are to burned to ensure no further use.
Stopping Gamestop or who ever wont change anything, unless you take away our rights of personal possession.

But in the end it doesn't really matter; most FPS games are 6hrs long so you rent them; most 3rd person shooters are 8-10hrs long so you just rent them;the only games worth buying now are RPG's that give you 30+ hrs of game play. Of course if your big into multilayer, then yes you have to buy your titles. But I don't play online, so its a non issue to me.

Games are way cheaper on Craigslist, and its just as easy. Send an email, drive over to his place buy the game, save more money than going through a Retailer.

 

[Auron225]

Guys? Did you'se know that next year, they're gonna stop making films. Yup. No more films.

Seriously - I highly doubt console gaming will stop after the next generation. I know it wont last forever but it wont just stop one day and that'll be the end of games - it'll evolve into something else. There isnt anything obvious for it to evolve into yet though - if we dont have PCs or consoles for gaming then what? Its like how films havent altered all that much in so many decades now aside from new technology here and there.

 

[Asuka Soryu]

Everyday someone crys it's the end of consoles/games/pc/blah blah blah

I'm getting really sick and tired of hearing peoples doom speaches.

 

[teknoarcanist]

I sense he's in the right on this one. It's not just the console business, but the entire AAA-tier industry and workflow of game development is changing. All those weird little indie games on XBLA are just the birth-pangs.

I look at things like The Indie Fund http://indie-fund.com/ and it just seems inconceivable to me that in 20 years, the game industry will still exist in the form it does today. It's just not sustainable. It's too closed-off, when there's this whole generation of talent looking to get in.

 

[draythefingerless]

I think he might be right in that the next generation might be the last but for a different reason. In my opinion raw graphics power is approaching its peak and the next generation will probably be the last to need the major hardware upgrades that each new generation has brought.

Prices go up as time goes by. Its called inflation. You waste more, but your wallet has more money too. 10 bucks now, were a fortune 20 years ago. If you want to complain, complain about the fact that i see publishers charging 60 dollars for digitally distributed titles, when they should cost half that, since those 60 bucks in retail are due to shop fee, shipping, physical spending(cd, box, art). There is absolutely no reason a digitally distributed game should cost as much as a retail other than corporate greed.

 

[Baresark]

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Ok, let me just clarify my standpoint.

Theoretically you could improve processors and graphics indefinitely, but the improvement costs increasingly more while impacting the experience increasing less.

The cost of a video game to make has moved from 1 to 4 million to up to 100 million in the last 10 years.

Add on the relative value of money and that becomes around 123 million.

We have reached the point where it is no longer worth it to improve graphics and processors for the purpose of game playing; we probably passed it awhile ago in fact, but nobody noticed.

The hardware has greatly outpaced what software can reasonably be produced.

Maybe in 30 years, we might reach a point where it might be viable for another generation, but I also think we've reached the apathetic point.

The difference is to little, people stop caring. Hell, I stopped caring last generation.

I look at Heavy Rain, then I look at Silent Hill 2. There is a distinct difference, true, but I ask myself "Would Silent Hill 2, have been noticeably improved by Heavy rain level of graphics." and answer "No, not really."

Don't be thinking that's nostalgia talking, I picked up the game 2 months ago.

The idea that perpetual improvement works is a technical and economic hubris, no one cared if their movies were on Blue-ray or HD-DVD; hell no one cares if they're on Blue-ray or DVD.

So yes, you can improve consoles; but it's a pointless and self destructive endeavor.

I see what you're saying. The diminishing return of the whole cycle is pretty far along by now. But, I don't know if I agree completely with what your saying. It's not the cost of hardware that makes creating games what they are today. That is still a failure with the developers and publishers. The first really groundbreaking graphic jumps in games didn't happen because someone thought they were gonna make money off of it, they did it because they really wanted to do it (on the development side). I believe stuff like that will happen, no matter what the industry says.

I agree that many games would not be improved by better graphics. But the idea of constant improvement is not hubris, that is a facet of life. Computer hardware is no different. No one should expect it to stop. I do agree that the extent the hardware pushes does feel like it's logical conclusion sometimes. But all it takes is someone with vision to take it to the next level.

Also, this article discusses the next console generation being the last. The cost of hardware hasn't increased like the cost of software production. It has actually paced very well. The $100 million dollar game budget is a failing of companies, not the console generation. And as hardware becomes even more advanced, it will become cheaper as well. If they were to make a console that was on part with a current mid level computer system, it would blow the current generation away, and it wouldn't cost $600 either. But the software, as long as there are companies like EA and Activision out there, is not going to improve. They think the way to make a better game it to throw more money at it.

And I hate to say it, but gaming schools will only make the salaries of programmers and artists in the industry, decline. Further driving down the price of games.

Ultimately, we agree and disagree on some issues. I'm good with that. At least you put thought behind the things you say, many do not. Thanks for the fun back and forth. =)

 

[BloodSquirrel]

I think half the problem is that the game market seems to be obsessed with only the latest and greatest games. If I wanted to buy a copy of say...original theme park (1994? ish?) now, I would struggle mightily to get a new copy. Yet at the same time if I want to buy a DVD of cassablanca (1942) or its a wonderful life (1946) no problem. Maybe the market is still too small to support that big a back catalogue, or perhaps to many people are just graphics whores to support it.

We're just starting to see that with things like releasing old games on XBLA.

On the other hand, the video game indusrty isn't helping by constantly pushing games ever more towards being disposable. Modern games are designed to be consumed as fast and as with little effort as possible. Games have 5 hours of moving-straight-through content and are made to be easy enough that players won't have to spend any real time trying multiple times to overcome any challenges. They rely on the novelty of seeing new areas and new cutscenes to make up for how mindless the gameplay is. Once you've beaten the game there's no point in going back.

Then developers wonder why people wind up cycling through them by reselling at Gamestop rather than hanging on to them. They've made the decision to go for the broadest audience possible without understanding the consequence- that their prodcut will have a low value to that audience.

 

[GonzoGamer]

But I wasn't talking about new game prices. I'm talking about used game prices.
When I was buying used Dreamcast and used ps2 games I usually got them for anywhere from 1/6th-1/8th of the price of a new copy.
My complaint is that gamestop and other game retailer franchises have gouged the Used game market so that used games are usually only a couple of bucks cheaper than a new copy.
So where a gamer could at one point walk into a game store and walk out with a new game And a used game, said gamer with the same (proportionally) money has to now decide if he's going to get a new game Or a used game.
I still get the new copy because the savings wouldn't even cover subway fare but if I was poor still, I would save the $2.

Fair enough, perhaps I sort of misunderstood. I will agree that in some respects, used prices are high, but that's mostly for used copies of current games. I think it's absolutely ludicrous that Gamestop only drops the price of newer second hand copies by $5. I realize that a lot of people must be happy to pay $5 less, but for me, if I had the money to spend $55 on a used game, I might as well just buy myself a brand new copy for $60.

I think it's only when titles are out for 6 months to a year that we see any real price drops. I just don't understand why consumers let themselves be fooled into buying used merchandise for barely any savings. Sure, in most cases they are in perfectly fine shape, but something about buying second hand makes me want a bit more significant savings, personally. I'd actually rather wait till the retail price drops on new copes than buy and expensive used copy. But that's just me.

Aside from that, I still think that for the most part, used prices have not gone up substantially either, except for in the above case.

For a while that was true. I was using ebay until their prices started matching those at gamestop. There was even a rumor that for a while gamestop would bid on used games on ebay to either buy really cheap used titles to mark up and resell and/or just drive the bids high enough that it wouldn't be a savings over their price..
It's just a rumor I heard but I wouldn't put it past them. I would do that if I was a soulless corporation with customers who are easily parted with their cash. And it kind of mirrors the position they put their customers in with regards to having to pre-order in order to buy a new game.
Now that I'm not poor anymore, I usually buy new but if I do buy used I go with Amazon or gamefly; but the latter is only a savings because I've been a customer for a while and I get a discount and credit from them.

 

[Zom-B]

For a while that was true. I was using ebay until their prices started matching those at gamestop. There was even a rumor that for a while gamestop would bid on used games on ebay to either buy really cheap used titles to mark up and resell and/or just drive the bids high enough that it wouldn't be a savings over their price..
It's just a rumor I heard but I wouldn't put it past them. I would do that if I was a soulless corporation with customers who are easily parted with their cash. And it kind of mirrors the position they put their customers in with regards to having to pre-order in order to buy a new game.
Now that I'm not poor anymore, I usually buy new but if I do buy used I go with Amazon or gamefly; but the latter is only a savings because I've been a customer for a while and I get a discount and credit from them.

Oh eBay. I have a love/hate with eBay. Love because you can get some rad stuff, super cheap, hate because of the exact practices you mention of driving up prices with false bids.

I also would not be surprised if Gamestop had a team that did nothing but scour eBay and drive up prices.

 

[GonzoGamer]

For a while that was true. I was using ebay until their prices started matching those at gamestop. There was even a rumor that for a while gamestop would bid on used games on ebay to either buy really cheap used titles to mark up and resell and/or just drive the bids high enough that it wouldn't be a savings over their price..
It's just a rumor I heard but I wouldn't put it past them. I would do that if I was a soulless corporation with customers who are easily parted with their cash. And it kind of mirrors the position they put their customers in with regards to having to pre-order in order to buy a new game.
Now that I'm not poor anymore, I usually buy new but if I do buy used I go with Amazon or gamefly; but the latter is only a savings because I've been a customer for a while and I get a discount and credit from them.

Oh eBay. I have a love/hate with eBay. Love because you can get some rad stuff, super cheap, hate because of the exact practices you mention of driving up prices with false bids.

I also would not be surprised if Gamestop had a team that did nothing but scour eBay and drive up prices.

When you consider how much they mark up the used games, how much they make off them, and how broad the selection on ebay is, it would definitely be cost effective. It's not like they would have to hire college grads for a department like that.

 

[Manji187]

Since graphics has reached a pretty high point then maybe, maybe! We can start spending more money on writers and such and make better games, not just visualized orgasms.
The day of gaming has just begun...

Damn....I sure hope you are right.

Okay, then one thing.
What is your proof that the day of console gaming is dying?
Because we've had doom prophets everywere in every field, ignore it and keep on moving, because as long as there are gamers, then there are buyers.

I think it is pretty much undeniable that nowadays the gaming industry is first and foremost a business that is focussing on recouping its initial investment and making as big a profit as possible. The problem is that the console market is one of high risk, high reward, winner-takes-all. If you don't score...you die. It is this pressure that stifles true innovation and encourages pandering to the lowest common denominator (which is why "shooters" are so prevalent) and sequels to master IPs (especially by Nintendo). How long do you think this debilitating development can last before developers call it quits and turn to less stressful and less risky projects (that are not of an "all or nothing" nature)?

I'm curious...who exactly are these "gamers" you are talking about? What is the scope/ range of the definition? Do you consider someone playing Patience a gamer? Farmville? Angry Birds?

 

[DTWolfwood]

um it would help if they treated games like a regular consumer product and adjusted the price regularly to increase profits. instead of the fixed price model.

 

[uguito-93]

I think he might be right in that the next generation might be the last but for a different reason. In my opinion raw graphics power is approaching its peak and the next generation will probably be the last to need the major hardware upgrades that each new generation has brought.

Prices go up as time goes by. Its called inflation. You waste more, but your wallet has more money too. 10 bucks now, were a fortune 20 years ago. If you want to complain, complain about the fact that i see publishers charging 60 dollars for digitally distributed titles, when they should cost half that, since those 60 bucks in retail are due to shop fee, shipping, physical spending(cd, box, art). There is absolutely no reason a digitally distributed game should cost as much as a retail other than corporate greed.

uhhh i think you might have quoted the wrong person. i never made any mention of games costing too much in my post

 

[draythefingerless]

I think he might be right in that the next generation might be the last but for a different reason. In my opinion raw graphics power is approaching its peak and the next generation will probably be the last to need the major hardware upgrades that each new generation has brought.

Prices go up as time goes by. Its called inflation. You waste more, but your wallet has more money too. 10 bucks now, were a fortune 20 years ago. If you want to complain, complain about the fact that i see publishers charging 60 dollars for digitally distributed titles, when they should cost half that, since those 60 bucks in retail are due to shop fee, shipping, physical spending(cd, box, art). There is absolutely no reason a digitally distributed game should cost as much as a retail other than corporate greed.

uhhh i think you might have quoted the wrong person. i never made any mention of games costing too much in my post

HMMMM...and this is why i shouldnt post when im sleep deprived.

 

[Ironic Pirate]

With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

I think the two are unifying. PC games are becoming "consolized" and consoles are basically limited PCs now.