which is more likely?
model 1: developer spends time and most as usual, and then develop full expansion packs during and after the game's release, spending more for their development. the game goes live, and they make money, and then get residual sales from the dlc packs after they're released.
model 2: developer spends time and money as they did before to complete a full game, and then works on dlc during approval phase after the development, spending the extra time and money on the dlc. the game and dlc go live and they make more money because the dlc was released on the first day, plus they only spent a small amount of time on it compared to full release expansion packages so profit margins are higher.
model 3: developer keeps the whole budget and timespan the same, and the publisher cuts the difference out from the main game. the game and dlc go live, and they make roughly the same amount of money as the previous model, because no one customer can quantify what the game has had removed. customers who almost can figure it out are not in the target market to begin with.
compare to these additional models
model 3: developer makes the game as usual, but then the publisher takes the game, splits it up into chunks, and markets the smaller chunks as dlc, while leaving the bare essentials at 60 dollars. since the "additional content" has already been completed in advance, there is no need to keep the people around afterwards to develop it, and manpower is either removed or repurposed. in addition, publisher also decides to market buying the entire dlc package at once as an "all access pass" which portrays being charged twice for the content that was already paid for as a great deal (as opposed to being ripped off three times for buying each item individually).
model 4: the same arrangement as above, but the developer keeps a skeleton crew onboard to mush pre-existing content together in ways that are unrecognizable to most customers to continue milking the game. any actually new assets added to the game are created at a negligible cost to the publisher compared to how much they charge for those features, considering that these assets are intangible and unlimited.
model 5: the same arrangement as model 4, but the developer puts those assets in a randomized format that makes customers pay for a chance to acquire new content. the publisher is in full control of the odds and therefore can adjust distribution at the highest possible profit.