Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

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tstorm823

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Cheetodust

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crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
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Oh, hey look, I googled Ireland vs Northern Ireland covid, and the top result is this: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and...better-than-the-republic-of-ireland-1.4351612
Which mathed out covid deaths by age demographics and found the two parts to be functionally identical.
Oh are we doing math to justify our position? Then how about some napkin math?

Northern Ireland to date has had 1240 deaths to COVID according to google. The Republic of Ireland has had 2192 deaths, wow, worse! Well hold on, NI has a population of 1.885 million while IE has 4.904 million. Crunching numbers you're ~50% more likely to die of COVID in NI?! No, of course not. You're just similarly more likely to be infected in NI, for easily observable reasons about lockdowns and public health initiatives.

Without a change in the mortality rate, then it's absurdly obvious the way you prevent deaths by COVID is to prevent infections by COVID, something the Republic of Ireland is better at and something the UK (and by extension Northern Ireland) is worse at. You're 50% more likely to die of COVID in NI because you are much more likely to be infected in the first place.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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I direct you back to the video
I direct you back to my post about the video...
Pretty funny how Biden getting 85% of the vote in a precinct is "suspicious" and not normal while him getting 11% (meaning Trump got the rest) in another isn't suspicious.
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De facto island, island, island, island, island... have you considered the possibility that there are more factors at play than just national level government response? Perhaps geography could play a role? Population demographics? You think any country could have just behaved like South Korea and had no problems? That's not how reality works. There are no panaceas.
Norway and South Korea aren't islands. There's plenty of other countries that handled it better, literally 140 out of 150 have. Germany has handled it far better, they're in the middle of Europe. An island doesn't really matter much once the virus gets there, Tokyo has more people than NYC. Once the virus is in either Tokyo or NYC, the same mitigations will have the same effect. There's one study that points to half of Tokyo being infected, even if just 1 million people have gotten infected that would be a fatality rate of 0.06%.
 

tstorm823

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You really need an argument that peoples' lives can be negatively impacted outside of literal death?
No, but you do need to make an argument someone does need to make an argument from the different metric before it can be considered. The post I had responded to with data just sort of broadly asserted one place was doing substantially better than another without listing what standards were being used to judge. I repsonded with a comparison that should them not being terribly different by at least one standard, and got back basically "well yeah, if you judge it that way rather than the other ways". Well, ok then, what other ways shall we compare? There are plenty of options, if people would like to argue from a different perspective. It's not an argument to tell me I'm judging by the wrong standards without demostrating the right standards or atleast saying why the standards are wrong.

I get more empty responses than I do actual arguments, sometimes 2:1.
Without a change in the mortality rate, then it's absurdly obvious the way you prevent deaths by COVID is to prevent infections by COVID.
The article I presented was arguing exactly this though: the mortality rate of covid-19 isn't constant. It varies immensely by demographic, especially by age demographics, and if you break the two regions down into age brackets, you find parallel deaths per million. Mortality rate of the virus isn't constant across groups, geographies, or time. It isn't a fixed number you can hold steady under all conditions.
 

crimson5pheonix

It took 6 months to read my title.
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No, but you do need to make an argument someone does need to make an argument from the different metric before it can be considered. The post I had responded to with data just sort of broadly asserted one place was doing substantially better than another without listing what standards were being used to judge. I repsonded with a comparison that should them not being terribly different by at least one standard, and got back basically "well yeah, if you judge it that way rather than the other ways". Well, ok then, what other ways shall we compare? There are plenty of options, if people would like to argue from a different perspective. It's not an argument to tell me I'm judging by the wrong standards without demostrating the right standards or atleast saying why the standards are wrong.

I get more empty responses than I do actual arguments, sometimes 2:1.

The article I presented was arguing exactly this though: the mortality rate of covid-19 isn't constant. It varies immensely by demographic, especially by age demographics, and if you break the two regions down into age brackets, you find parallel deaths per million. Mortality rate of the virus isn't constant across groups, geographies, or time. It isn't a fixed number you can hold steady under all conditions.
Your article does funi math to say the virus is just as deadly to 65 year olds on either side of a border to ignore the fact that the virus is killing more people per capita on one particular side of a border because the rate of infection is much higher on that particular side of the border. It's a nonsense distraction of the third kind of lie, statistics.
 

Agema

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Your article does funi math to say the virus is just as deadly to 65 year olds on either side of a border to ignore the fact that the virus is killing more people per capita on one particular side of a border because the rate of infection is much higher on that particular side of the border. It's a nonsense distraction of the third kind of lie, statistics.
The major risk category for covid-19 mortality is age. According to statistics, the figure for 80+ (mortality rate ~15%) is about 3.1% of the population of Ireland, and 3.8% of the population of Northern Ireland. If we then look at 70-79 (~5% mortality), it's 6.6% in Ireland and 6.3% in NI.

Bearing in mind the people of NI are dying at a rate nearly 50% higher than Ireland, the differing age demographics for over-70s therefore only explains under half the greater proportion of deaths.
 

gorfias

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I've written that I thought over all, Trump did an amazing, pro-American job as POTUS. Some of his detractors state he is anti - gay and say he has done some 175 bad things to them.

He's threatening to veto the latest "stimulus" which includes gender studies money for foreign countries that can be pro-gay. So, blocking that could be conceived of as anti-gay. But he really should do this. He can't pick an choose. Would this sort of thing be the sort of thing making up most of the 175 issues referenced in this thread?

Eh, I'm afraid to hope. We need courts willing to uphold the law. We've heard that the USSC is too afraid of rioters to do their job. So, no matter what happens, all we can do is try to be our best selves. Stay productive, alert and vocal.
 

Hades

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Hades

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Eh, I'm afraid to hope. We need courts willing to uphold the law. We've heard that the USSC is too afraid of rioters to do their job
I mean if the Supreme court decides to suspend democracy and just award Trump a second term then there should be riots. Its sacrificing democracy just so an incompetent and extreme corrupt individual can have four more years in office.
 
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