Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[crimson5pheonix]

There's actually one path where Biden can miss Pennsylvania and George but still win. Biden needs to win Maine overall and either both Maine districts or one of Nebraska's districts.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Not that my math is correct as I think I can't think straight enough to do basic arithmetic right now (truly, the hardest of math), but hasn't Nebraska already been called completely for Trump?

 

[Mister Mumbler]

Honestly, it might be safe to say AZ is going blue. They are holding off on finishing counting mail-in ballots until tomorrow to focus on counting all the in-person votes that were cast.

 

[Agema]

I think that Biden is still the favorite, mathematically, to win.

My gut says so

All the picture at the moment is bad for Biden.

He's scoring about 6% down on the polls, which alone would project that he's not taking or in real trouble in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

And indeed, look at the vote counts so far - how behind he is, what districts are yet to complete and by how much, it's looking a very tough ask that he's going to make up the gap. For instance, in PA, he's about 700,000 down. But from what's in so far, we might project he'll catch only about 400,000 back from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, maybe up to 500,000 from a few other blue counties, and the rest of the state still to declare leans red. That's PA. Wisconsin is worse. Michigan I think slightly better. But I think he needs all three.

 

[Bob_McMillan]

So when can we expect the result to be announced? I think I'd rather ignore al this nail biting speculation and wait for something definitive.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

All the picture at the moment is bad for Biden.

He's scoring about 6% down on the polls, which alone would project that he's not taking or in real trouble in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

And indeed, look at the vote counts so far - how behind he is, what districts are yet to complete and by how much, it's looking a very tough ask that he's going to make up the gap. For instance, in PA, he's about 700,000 down. But from what's in so far, we might project he'll catch only about 400,000 back from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, maybe up to 500,000 from a few other blue counties, and the rest of the state still to declare leans red. That's PA. Wisconsin is worse. Michigan I think slightly better. But I think he needs all three.

Or Georgia. Relying on Fivethirtyeight's calculator to fix my errors, on current tracking, Biden needs any two of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Trump needs 3 of them.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Gergar12]

Can you imagine how well Trump would be doing without the pandemic or depression, he would likely win with 300+ electoral votes.

I wish Biden would at least drop pamphlets in homes to counter Trump's door to door...

 

[Trunkage]

Can you imagine how well Trump would be doing without the pandemic or depression, he would likely win with 300+ electoral votes.

I wish Biden would at least drop pamphlets in homes to counter Trump's door to door...

Totally agree.

Biden was such a good pick. Best strat

 

[Iron]

I thought Virginia could flip by Biden has 250K lead, so no way.
All swing-states right now are Trump's. Only MN went with Biden. Biden can get AZ, NV with total of 17 ec easily. That's still 241. He needs PA _AND _ MI.

 

[Iron]

Totally agree.

Biden was such a good pick. Best strat

I said here before, the dems were throwing the elections with Biden.

 

[gorfias]

All the picture at the moment is bad for Biden.

He's scoring about 6% down on the polls, which alone would project that he's not taking or in real trouble in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

And indeed, look at the vote counts so far - how behind he is, what districts are yet to complete and by how much, it's looking a very tough ask that he's going to make up the gap. For instance, in PA, he's about 700,000 down. But from what's in so far, we might project he'll catch only about 400,000 back from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, maybe up to 500,000 from a few other blue counties, and the rest of the state still to declare leans red. That's PA. Wisconsin is worse. Michigan I think slightly better. But I think he needs all three.

Can Trump win w/o PA? I heard they are only counting votes but will not be counting early votes until tomorrow. Those are expected to lean Biden.

 

[Seanchaidh]

This is based on nothing more than wishful thinking and a desire to validate your own beliefs.

No, it's based on the fact that the American people like Bernie's agenda (most recently evidenced in Fox News exit polling that various things like government-run healthcare at ~70%) and one of the reasons Biden was able to win is because during the Democratic primary many people thought he supported Bernie's agenda. And the fact that he's far more coherent a speaker and would be doing so much better with Latinos nationwide, as he did in Nevada and as Biden is very notably not doing.

People, right now, need money. And people, right now, need healthcare. Bernie could have done so much more than just nebulously claim that he'll handle COVID better: he had (and still has, actually) concrete proposals to handle both the medical side of things much better and to soften the impact of economic shutdowns- which would then allow people who are sick to avoid work and spreading the disease more. The stars basically aligned to make this particular general election a slam dunk for a Bernie Sanders kind of presidential candidate, but millionaires reporting the news for billionaires thought Biden had a better shot at beating Trump. Or at least they wanted you to believe that.

I can also personally attest that he would have had my vote rather than it going to Gloria La Riva, though being in WA I suppose that's not a big deal.

 

[Iron]

Can Trump win w/o PA? I heard they are only counting votes but will not be counting early votes until tomorrow. Those are expected to lean Biden.

Yes, barely. If he keeps MI and WI, yes. GA and NC should be called for Trump already imo. He gets 270 in this scenario, maybe a little more with how ME does ec.

 

[Gergar12]

I literally wrote an essay about how Trump/Republicans could win Florida by accepting anti-socialist Venezuelan refugees. I didn't think the Cuban refugees were this strong already.

Hey, at least I got an A.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Heh, I think this is technically possible still. How's this for an end result?

 

[Iron]

View attachment 1393

Heh, I think this is technically possible still. How's this for an end result?

NC should be called for Trump. It's unbelievable they called Florida but not NC.

edit: Also there is more of a chance that WI is red and MI is blue than the other way around.

 

[Trunkage]

I said here before, the dems were throwing the elections with Biden.

I'm pretty sure I said here that the Dems are deliberately setting out to lose by picking Biden

 

[Eacaraxe]

Totally agree.

Biden was such a good pick. Best strat

Why it's almost as if trying to relitigate 2016 with a candidate somehow even worse than Hillary, coronated by the same ratfuckery that got us Hillary in the first place, with a campaign somehow less organizationally competent than Hillary's that managed to pull the hat trick of cozying up to Bush era chickenshits while fleeing from their own base, by refusing to exercise even an iota of self-awareness or introspection as to how they lost 2016 in the first place while distancing themselves from key historic Democratic platform positions up to and including those supported by 90% of Democrats, was a stupid fucking plan.

They were absolutely throwing the election. As I said from the beginning, they were happier losing to Trump than winning with Bernie. Every last one of these ridiculous corporate Democrats need to be run out of the party on a fucking rail.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

NC should be called for Trump. It's unbelievable they called Florida but not NC.

edit: Also there is more of a chance that WI is red and MI is blue than the other way around.

NC is actually very close. I don't think it will go Biden, but mathematically it can. And yes, WI and MI are more likely to be flipped, but if they do that image doesn't happen. Getting a literal tie would just be hilarious.

At that point I want a runoff between all the third parties, super fun times.

 

[Seanchaidh]

 

[Hawki]

I could see Biden winning through Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. The former two are likely. The latter two, less so.

...is that hippo high?