Election thread

[Dalisclock]

Well I think the situation is radically changed. Trump, the civilian/CEO threatens shit all the time. Trump the President, with the backing of the Congress, and the Supreme Court?! And 40% of voters who are convinced that anything less than 47 states for Trump means civil war, on top of 96% support among registered Republicans?

Trump didn't do it in 2018 because he was still favored to win, and Covid wasn't a thing. Trump 2020 with everything to lose and anothing to gain for letting Democrats take office, and with legalish means of stopping them? You're a braver person than I to think Trump and the GOP won't do something. Not try, do.

It's mostly that, as others have pointed out, he's a fucking coward and lazy at that.He could have used COVID as a pretext to seize power and instead he's pretty much done jack shit. His preferred answer to most of his answers are to avoid or run away from them, all while talking big. The gulf between his "I'm the Alpha male"talk and his action make the Grand Canyon look tiny.

While the GOP has shown a disturbing amount of brown nosing and tolerating his shit, I don't see the kind of loyalty to him that would have them putting us in a civil war. If for no other reason that they're only human and a breakdown of a society would essentially mean open season on them and their families and that's something they do care about. I'm pretty sure McConnel wants to retire to his nice house with his family, not have his house burned to the ground in American Civil War part 2, especially not for one of Trump's Tantrums.

 

[Gergar12]

Biden's lead which used to be in the double digits is slipping as we speak.

National : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Dalisclock]

Biden's lead which used to be in the double digits is slipping as we speak.
View attachment 1364

National : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Down to 8.6+ with 3 days to go and 80+ million votes already in.

The Horror.....The Horror......

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

Down to 8.6+ with 3 days to go and 80+ million votes already in.

The Horror.....The Horror......

Wasn't it to be expected anyways, that it'd be dropping some

 

[Dalisclock]

Wasn't it to be expected anyways, that it'd be dropping some

Everyone has been expecting it to tighten. I'm honestly surprised it's tightened so little.

Just wait till Tucker Carlson drops all those dank Hunter docs he's got....The ones his dog ate...and then apparently vomited back up.

 

[lil devils x]

Down to 8.6+ with 3 days to go and 80+ million votes already in.

The Horror.....The Horror......

I will still believe it when I see it. I am avoiding listening or watching the news until it is over. I don't need the stress. I still expect the GOP to not allow a lot of votes to be counted, they have been pushing for that so hard.

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

I will still believe it when I see it. I am avoiding listening or watching the news until it is over. I don't need the stress. I still expect the GOP to not allow a lot of votes to be counted, they have been pushing for that so hard.

Yeh, I'm refusing to really count on anything here. Still anxious but I think putting hopes on things and thinking it over and considering possibilities will only make me more anxious. Not to mention, even if Biden wins there's another few months of Trump

 

[Dalisclock]

I will still believe it when I see it. I am avoiding listening or watching the news until it is over. I don't need the stress. I still expect the GOP to not allow a lot of votes to be counted, they have been pushing for that so hard.

I've been mostly looking at state polls since National Polls aren't all that useful. Honestly, I'm more interested in the turnout which is massive and to me implies a LOT of people are motivated to kick Trump to the curb. I've seen very little evidence Trump has grown his base at all and I suspect he's lost quite a few of the people who voted for him in 2016(and he won on a 70k vote margin across 3 states). He doesn't have any margin to lose and be able to carry the election.

The only things Trump has going for him are Voter Suppression(which doesn't seem to be working considering the turnout nationwide), the "Shy Trump Voter"(which is unfalsifiable) and the supposition that A.) The polls are really off and B.) They're off in Trumps Favor which feels like reaching on the part of his voters.

I have no evidence of this at all, but I'm guessing that Biden will actually do better than the polls in a couple states. Probably won't flip Texas but NC and GA look likely.

 

[lil devils x]

Yeh, I'm refusing to really count on anything here. Still anxious but I think putting hopes on things and thinking it over and considering possibilities will only make me more anxious. Not to mention, even if Biden wins there's another few months of Trump

I am worried win or lose here. Trump's newly stacked Supreme Court is coming for my lifeline access to what I need to breathe in just a matter of days now, as well as many of my family, friends, and neighbors. Just trying to figure out how to keep people alive to last until we can get something resolved if the supreme court rules against the Affordable care act subsidies we need to stay alive.

Trump throwing a temper tantrum if he loses ,he could tank the economy with no stimulus inflicting horrible harm onto those most vulnerable in the middle of the Pandemic causing millions to become homeless, lose their access to food, shelter, basic necessities to survive. The GOP in the Senate are blocking all help for the poor and have no incentive to help the people at all. We have no idea if democrats will even take the Senate, and even if they take the white house, they still can't get anything past the Senate if they don't take that too and it is a matter of life and death for so many. Democrat's have to take the senate, hold the house and take the white house for help to be on it's way at all. If not, years is much too long for people to try and get by in the current environment. Just thinking about it turns my stomach really.

 

[lil devils x]

Yeh, I'm refusing to really count on anything here. Still anxious but I think putting hopes on things and thinking it over and considering possibilities will only make me more anxious. Not to mention, even if Biden wins there's another few months of Trump

It is like it is all going in slow motion for me, and I just want it to be over. Everything is just so messed up I can't even look. I just wish I was knocked out until it was over.. Go to sleep wake up after everything was decided. The suspense is too much stress.

 

[Secondhand Revenant]

I am worried win or lose here. Trump's newly stacked Supreme Court is coming for my lifeline access to what I need to breathe in just a matter of days now, as well as many of my family, friends, and neighbors. Just trying to figure out how to keep people alive to last until we can get something resolved if the supreme court rules against the Affordable care act subsidies we need to stay alive.

Trump throwing a temper tantrum if he loses ,he could tank the economy with no stimulus inflicting horrible harm onto those most vulnerable in the middle of the Pandemic causing millions to become homeless, lose their access to food, shelter, basic necessities to survive. The GOP in the Senate are blocking all help for the poor and have no incentive to help the people at all. We have no idea if democrats will even take the Senate, and even if they take the white house, they still can't get anything past the Senate if they don't take that too and it is a matter of life and death for so many. Democrat's have to take the senate, hold the house and take the white house for help to be on it's way at all. If not, years is much too long for people to try and get by in the current environment. Just thinking about it turns my stomach really.

Yep, that's the thing, there's a lot more to it than just the Presidency, and that wait time if he loses and seeing what he might do in the interim is not a pleasant thought.

It is like it is all going in slow motion for me, and I just want it to be over. Everything is just so messed up I can't even look. I just wish I was knocked out until it was over.. Go to sleep wake up after everything was decided. The suspense is too much stress.

Yep, I know exactly what you mean with that. Half don't even want to know until all the results. Of course there's the curious part of me, but the suspense for it is far worse.

 

[Thaluikhain]

I was going to say I was worried about various armed right wingers, not so much in a civil war sense, but in a big splash of domestic terrorism sense.

But, covid is apparently the US's 3rd highest cause of death, and we should expect a quarter million or so covid deaths in the US in the new few months, so you might not even notice the murders.

 

[Hawki]

DFAT updates ‘do not travel’ warning for USA

With only a couple of days before Americans head to the polls, Australians are being warned to steer clear of the USA.

www.news.com.au

Is America on the brink of a Second Civil War?

America is bracing for chaos.

www.news.com.au

Usually I'm wary of such predictions, but some of it's coming from our own DFAT.

Stay safe.

 

[lil devils x]

DFAT updates ‘do not travel’ warning for USA

With only a couple of days before Americans head to the polls, Australians are being warned to steer clear of the USA.

www.news.com.au

Is America on the brink of a Second Civil War?

America is bracing for chaos.

www.news.com.au

Usually I'm wary of such predictions, but some of it's coming from our own DFAT.

Stay safe.

* wonders if there is some place to hide until this is over with*
And what I can put on the TV where they wont show me any news at all when I have already resorted to watching skoat and weasel videos with my cats to avoid election coverage..
I honestly do not feel safe in this area due to everything happening.

 

[Agema]

Biden's lead which used to be in the double digits is slipping as we speak.

Not a surprise.

People will gradually default to their party of choice. Support often goes up or down quickly in response to specific events, however it will "permanently" change the opinions of relatively few. Over time as the incident fades from prominence, many of them who switched will return to the fold and polls gradually return towards a longer-term trend. Trump's double-digit deficit correlates very well to his performance in the first presidential debate, which even many Republicans found to be rude, petty, and unconstructive. However, the long-term trend was Biden ~7 points up, and it was likely the difference would revert to something closer to that as events moved on.

The problem for Trump is that he's only marginally less stuffed at 7-8 points down than he is at ~10 points down. He needs to be under 5 points down to be really competitive, and probably closer to 2-3 down for a roughly evens chance.

 

[CastletonSnob]

Here's the NYT poll:

Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows (Published 2020)

Joseph R. Biden Jr. leads President Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin, according to a Times/Siena College poll.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Shadyside]

 

[CastletonSnob]

Trump supporters are saying Trump will win because Trump has more people at his rallies.

Because a few hundred or thousand of people at a rally are representative of a state with millions of people.

Math isn't Trump supporters' strong suit.

 

[SilentPony]

Trump supporters are saying Trump will win because Trump has more people at his rallies.

Because a few hundred or thousand of people at a rally are representative of a state with millions of people.

Math isn't Trump supporters' strong suit.

It never was and never will be, but that's their bubble. They literally can't imagine not voting for Trump and they've cut out everyone who doesn't from their lives. I saw a dude being interviewed at a Trump rally saying Trump is gonna win 47 states on Election night, and if he doesn't its proof the Democrats are stealing the election and they need to "do something about it" which is white people speak for get guns and shoot someone.

 

[CastletonSnob]

Rasmussen has Trump losing in Florida.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/...68505667461120