Mornelithe said:
And you Sir, are exactly the kind of person I spoke of. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about, nor the actual process required to mod a 360. You consider it some major undertaking. It is, in fact an extremely quick and simple procedure.
Is it easier than downloading a cracked version of a game, and running it? If not, your point remains invalid.
Unlike, say, creating work arounds for some of the DRM for new games. Using Hamachi to create closed networks to fool the code. Hell, how about Arkham Asylum, I hear pirated PC games worked real well for that one.
That bit of DRM was clever, no question, but it didn't last long.
The point is, after a simple...very very simple operation on your 360, piracy is as easy as copying a DVD. With PC games, it's a bit different and can actually take some time to find the right stuff. Remember, you don't need to 'download' a 360 mod. You need the ability to read. That's it.
I know, that's kind of my point. If you just had to download a 360 mod, it would actually be easier. But modifying an Xbox 360 requires some actual hardware work. Soldering, etc. (There's a reason why online stores exist to buy pre-chipped ones, it's not as easy as you're making out.)
As for ease of distribution? It's there, whether you think it is or not (And really, I don't mean to be a dick about this, but take a look for yourself on the process...and what's out there. Every 360 game. Every, single, one). As I said, there are a plethora of sites, solely dedicated to 360 games. Solely. The same goes for DS, PSP, PS2 and other already hacked platforms. You really think communities haven't already been at work? That's...sorta like the MPAA totally dropping the ball on music piracy, isn't it?
Not a question, again, you're missing my point. I'm not disputing that there's an ease for Xbox 360 distribution either, but it's there, at the distribution end, that the real question lies. You're arguing ease of
production, and that's an irrelevent debate: As soon as one guy beats it, everyone can.
As for the true rate of piracy to purchase, I think it's highly unfair to trust anyone's word currently. Plain facts are, most PC purchases are done online, and there are _no_ comprehensive numbers from any source detailing exactly how much business they do. None.
I'm not bothering with NPD. I'm going with World of Goo [http://2dboy.com/2008/11/13/90/]. This served as a nice litmus test: No DRM, indie game manufacturer, etc. Company without much interest in fudging the truth. Their answer: 80% piracy rate. That's the '4' in my 4-5 times. The '5' comes from a hunch, and I admit that's all it is, that World of Goo went low, not high, in piracy rates.
The PS3 doesn't belong in this conversation, there is no currently available hack that allows you to burn PS3 games and play them on the PS3. The 360 on the other hand, is easily hacked, and as more and more people begin to realize/find out how much easier it is than on PC (No installs or hoops to jump through other than the initial mod), it'll become a bigger and bigger problem. Moreso than it already is.
This is what gets me: Why
shouldn't the PS3 be part of the discussion? The reason it hasn't been hacked yet isn't that it's technically harder, it's that the install base is lower. But the gap is shrinking, and hardware hacking groups will figure it out. But even when that happens: It still probably won't be a bigger problem than PC gaming. As I keep saying over and over again: It's not a technical issue; it's a social one.
But, to at least bring some reasons why consoles still will be harder to pirate that PCs...
1. The Tech-Savvy Factor.
Setting up a gaming PC is easier than it used to be, but it's still not half as easy as setting up a console. Thus, the tech-unsavvy folks (like myself, but also think moms, pops and the like) will flock to the console. These guys don't know what 'disk image' even means. Which means that, for them, downloading a pirated version is not an option. They're buying every game. These people do exist for PC gaming as well, but there they're in smaller numbers and mostly buying the aforementioned casual games.
(This is the element you're right will ultimately shrink over time. As it becomes easier and easier to do, it will be more and more common for the userbase to understand. But that's only one element of the set.)
2. The Physical Element.
Y'know why music/movie/game piracy is so popular online? Also (legal and pirated) pornography? Convenience and privacy. People like being able to do the whole thing in the alleged privacy of their own home. It feels safer. And there's likewise an emotional disconnect when you're dealing with non-physical matters; for an elusive psychological reason, the idea of downloading an album feels different to us than buying a pirated one at a market. And a very obvious psychological reason, the idea of grabbing porn off a network is a lot more appealing than having to go out and buy a magazine or DVD from a store.
Modding your Xbox is a greater psychological step for many people. People who wouldn't think twice about downloading a pirated game may not be willing to get a console chipped. (After all, chipping your console can break it; it's physical evidence of intent, and above all, it's a psychological leap you have to make unless you're prepared to simply state, "Yes, I'm a criminal.")
3. Potential punishment.
A very wise man (Or was it a woman? I forget.) once said: "It's not the severity of punishment that deters crime. It's the certainty."
Sure, the worst punishment for either is probably you get sued. But that's unlikely, and everyone knows it. But what's the most
likely punishment? On PC, nothing. Maybe you get banned from an individual service, but if you're playing on dedicated servers, even that's unlikely.
Xbox? You get banned from Xbox live [http://xboxblips.dailyradar.com/article/xbox-live-purged-of-up-to-1-million-users-report/]. Bam. And that's a paid service, so you're losing money.
Having the hammer ready helps.
(As it happens, I understand the most recent hacks aren't nearly as detectable as early ones on Xbox Live. But keep this in mind with my next point...)
4. It needs to be replaced every few years.
Finally, there's this: Consoles have a fixed lifespan. Eventually they're replaced by a new one, and the whole hacking race begins anew. This is where that production cost
can make an impact; once one group have found a good hack, the game is over, but the Xbox Live purges have continued even into last year. It's not as if the modders are, even at this stage, home free it would seem.
PC, by contrast, is a nice, fixed medium. Each game is its own dilemma. Companies like Ubisoft are trying harsher and harsher systems to try and get around them, but they're failing. As Shamus Young has noted [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/columns/experienced-points/5930-The-Impossible-DRM], the PC environment is open. In the end, the control lies with the users. Consoles, by contrast, are a closed environment. The control lays with the manufacturer.
You're right that Microsoft did not do as good a job with security on the Xbox 360 as they should have. (Fancy that! Microsoft do a poor job of security!) But that's the small picture. Piracy on the PC is a bigger problem. And overall, it will continue to be one. Piracy on the console is a problem, but it's a manageable one. A controllable one. After all, if the piracy problem does reach PC levels, then there's a much simpler answer for Microsoft on Xbox than they have on PC: Release a new console. The manufacturers have a much stronger hand for finding ways to deter, punish, and diminish piracy efforts.
As Epic have said, it's where the smart money is.
