Funny events in anti-woke world

TheMysteriousGX

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Due to ongoing events and Matt Walsh trying to claim there's millions of kids on puberty blockers (only to get fact checked live on air on Joe Rogan's show by the producer in that Rogany "it says here there's only 4000 kids on puberty blockers over the last 5 years but I'm not gonna directly call you a liar" sort of way)

So I decided to do some math while arguing with an idiot on Twitter. Here's my results:

Firstly, I'm going to uncritically believe the terf argument that, if not placed on puberty blockers or hormones, 80% of dysphoric children desist. Second, I'm going to uncritically believe the terf argument that 98% of children placed on puberty blockers continue on to cross sex hormones

According to insurance data, 121,882 children in the US were diagnosed with gender dysphoria between 2017 and 2021. Assuming 80% desist, that leaves 24,376 that stay transgender. According to the same insurance data, 17,682 children started taking puberty blockers over the same 5 year period. Which is less than 24,376, but that makes sense as a significant number of trans people with gender dysphoria don't necessarily need/want chemical intervention to treat it as children


Or in other words: according to terf arguments, we are correctly identifying transgender children in need of medical intervention with a 98% accuracy rate, and if anything we could expand those numbers further.

Which I find hilarious.
 

Thaluikhain

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Huh, is it becoming easier or harder to write dystopian sci-fi these days? You've got plenty of good material in the headlines, but it all seems normal and not shocking.
 
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bluegate

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Huh, is it becoming easier or harder to write dystopian sci-fi these days? You've got plenty of good material in the headlines, but it all seems normal and not shocking.
Some of the stuff seems even so outlandish that it'd be deemed too unrealistic and ludicrous for fiction.
 
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tstorm823

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Firstly, I'm going to uncritically believe the terf argument that, if not placed on puberty blockers or hormones, 80% of dysphoric children desist. Second, I'm going to uncritically believe the terf argument that 98% of children placed on puberty blockers continue on to cross sex hormones

According to insurance data, 121,882 children in the US were diagnosed with gender dysphoria between 2017 and 2021. Assuming 80% desist, that leaves 24,376 that stay transgender. According to the same insurance data, 17,682 children started taking puberty blockers over the same 5 year period. Which is less than 24,376, but that makes sense as a significant number of trans people with gender dysphoria don't necessarily need/want chemical intervention to treat it as children


Or in other words: according to terf arguments, we are correctly identifying transgender children in need of medical intervention with a 98% accuracy rate, and if anything we could expand those numbers further.

Which I find hilarious.
The 80% is an overall statistic, but it's nearly 100% of those with gender dysphoria before puberty who don't transition desist, and nearly 100% of those who do start to transition have their gender dysphoria persist past puberty. You are treating that as laser-focused diagnostic accuracy because you are coming into this with the fixed belief that gender is an immutable characteristic, and dismissing the idea that the treatments are forcing the gender dysphoria to persist. If none of the children who transitioned were started on that transition, it's entirely possible nearly 100% would have desisted, which would strongly correlate to literally all of human history.

I don't know where Rogan's fact check data came from, but you did the due diligence to fact check their fact check. You'll notice they said less than 5000 in the last 5 years, and you said over 17,000 in a 5 year period. If we imagine their data set is just old, that is tripling the rate, which also matches the increase in diagnoses over the last 5 year trend. If you entertain the idea for just a moment that maybe the transitions are causing the dysphoria to persist, that's thousands of people condemned to a life of dysphoria that could have been avoided just by waiting, and the current rate of increase, that million is only like 10 years off.
 

Terminal Blue

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Firstly, I'm going to uncritically believe the terf argument that, if not placed on puberty blockers or hormones, 80% of dysphoric children desist.
Good, because it's wrong.

There has never been a comprehensive long term study into outcomes for trans and gender variant children that gave any kind of reliable estimate of desistance. The various TERF statistical talking points about desistance, while almost always embellished or fabricated, stem ultimately from one of two sources.

1) A study of children's experiences at a single gender identity clinic in the Netherlands. The study does not measure or estimate rates of desistance, so what TERFs do is to take the figure for children who were discharged from the clinic for any reason before adulthood and claim that as the rate of desistance.

2) A study from the 1970s into the outcomes of boys diagnosed with what was then called "sissy boy syndrome" (a 100% very real medical condition). Again, the TERF claim is that all of those who did not transition before reaching adulthood must have desisted. However, as if it needs to be pointed out the children in this study were not trans or even gender-variant, they were boys who were deemed to be inappropriately effeminate by the standards of the 1970s. The vast majority of them grew up to be gay or bi men.

Remember that whenever TERFs try to claim that transgender ideology is erasing queer identities.

The 80% is an overall statistic, but it's nearly 100% of those with gender dysphoria before puberty who don't transition desist, and nearly 100% of those who do start to transition have their gender dysphoria persist past puberty.
Again. This is nonsense, because there has never been a long term study into outcomes for trans and gender variant children. Such a study would, by definition, take decades to complete. Also, what do you mean by "transition", "gender dysphoria" and "desistance", because I'm not sure you have a clear idea of what those terms mean.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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Matt Walsh trying to claim there's millions of kids on puberty blockers
Walsh is leaning on an old conservative tactic: Claim that "those people" (in this case, phantom liberals who want to groom children) are "coming for your kids", presumably to twist them away from your traditional lifestyle and deny you the grandchildren you deserve.

If we imagine their data set is just old, that is tripling the rate, which also matches the increase in diagnoses over the last 5 year trend. If you entertain the idea for just a moment that maybe the transitions are causing the dysphoria to persist, that's thousands of people condemned to a life of dysphoria that could have been avoided just by waiting, and the current rate of increase, that million is only like 10 years off.
So you're positing that gender dysphoria is just a "phase" and that it's better to let people continue to suffer than seek treatment, with the expectation that they'll just "get over it"?



Quick, all you San Franciscans, get to the stairs!
"The suspect is holed up in that house. Should we call in the negotiator and try to end this peacefully?"
"Nah, the big game is coming on in half an hour. Just send in the murder drone."
 

TheMysteriousGX

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The 80% is an overall statistic, but it's nearly 100% of those with gender dysphoria before puberty who don't transition desist, and nearly 100% of those who do start to transition have their gender dysphoria persist past puberty.
Bullshit based on nothing. If terfs could even pretend it was true, that would be their talking point
You are treating that as laser-focused diagnostic accuracy because you are coming into this with the fixed belief that gender is an immutable characteristic, and dismissing the idea that the treatments are forcing the gender dysphoria to persist. If none of the children who transitioned were started on that transition, it's entirely possible nearly 100% would have desisted, which would strongly correlate to literally all of human history.
Bullshit based on nothing, amd if terfs could even pretend it was true it would be their talking point
I don't know where Rogan's fact check data came from, but you did the due diligence to fact check their fact check.
No, I'd just assumed they were wrong because Joe Rogan and Co is a hack. Likely they just saw the number for a year (last year was about 5k) and assumed or misread that it was for 5 years.
You'll notice they said less than 5000 in the last 5 years, and you said over 17,000 in a 5 year period. If we imagine their data set is just old, that is tripling the rate, which also matches the increase in diagnoses over the last 5 year trend.
We have these things called *facts* these days. Been around since the Enlightenment. You shouldn't need to imagine. Can you find a set of 5 years where it was both only 4k *and* is on the first page of google or duck duck go?

you entertain the idea for just a moment that maybe the transitions are causing the dysphoria to persist, that's thousands of people condemned to a life of dysphoria that could have been avoided just by waiting, and the current rate of increase, that million is only like 10 years off.
Nope, I don't base policy on my imagination. Otherwise I'd be thinking that 120% of people are left handed.
 
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tstorm823

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Again. This is nonsense, because there has never been a long term study into outcomes for trans and gender variant children. Such a study would, by definition, take decades to complete. Also, what do you mean by "transition", "gender dysphoria" and "desistance", because I'm not sure you have a clear idea of what those terms mean.
Responding to my post with full understanding of what I said and then asking for me to provide definitions sort of kills any motivation I have to reply. Cause I'm not responding to your actual point after you followed up with that request, but I'm certainly not playing along with the request after you demonstrated you don't need me to.
So you're positing that gender dysphoria is just a "phase" and that it's better to let people continue to suffer than seek treatment, with the expectation that they'll just "get over it"?
I am positing that adolescence is a phase that people do just get over naturally nearly 100% of the time, unless you use medicine that forces them into a state of physical arrested development.
Bullshit based on nothing. If terfs could even pretend it was true, that would be their talking point
Bullshit based on nothing, amd if terfs could even pretend it was true it would be their talking point
No, I'd just assumed they were wrong because Joe Rogan and Co is a hack. Likely they just saw the number for a year (last year was about 5k) and assumed or misread that it was for 5 years.
We have these things called *facts* these days. Been around since the Enlightenment. You shouldn't need to imagine. Can you find a set of 5 years where it was both only 4k *and* is on the first page of google or duck duck go?
I did not, which is why I guessed instead.

But also, if I found you sources for every other number there, would make a difference to you?
 

Cicada 5

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https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article...d-from-a-school-library?utm_source=reddit.com

A parent in Owasso, Oklahoma is “pretty happy” with his daughter’s school district's decision to recall upwards of 3,000 graphic novels from its library system after taking issue with one title his daughter checked out from the school library over the summer.

It led to the Owasso School Board recently approving a new policy which requires every page of every graphic novel in the library to be screened for “potential material involving sexually explicit content and extreme vulgarity.”


All graphic novels in the school library’s collection were recalled after parent Tim Reiland took issue with the school letting his teenage daughter borrow Blankets, an autobiographical coming-of-age story by Craig Thompson about questioning blind faith in a fundamentalist Christian household.
This prompted the district to undergo a self-audit of graphic novels this fall to ensure their imagery comply with its policies. The district said that Reiland isn’t the only parent who has voiced concerns over library policies and books in the library’s collection.

However, Reiland is apparently the only parent who has sued the district, claiming a violation of his First Amendment rights. The night that a federal court sided with Reiland and prevented the Owasso school district from banning the man from the school’s campus, the changes he wanted made to the district’s policy draft were approved. A previous draft of the policy did not include mention of pornography, which Reiland took issue with.
"I actually feel great, it's almost verbatim what I told them that I wanted them to add into the policy in the first place," Reiland told KTUL after the meeting.
 

Terminal Blue

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Responding to my post with full understanding of what I said and then asking for me to provide definitions sort of kills any motivation I have to reply. Cause I'm not responding to your actual point after you followed up with that request, but I'm certainly not playing along with the request after you demonstrated you don't need me to.
Well, it's because I'd like to figure out where exactly you went wrong so we can learn something together.

Weird statistical claims like the one you made might get thrown around on the internet all the time, but there fundamentally isn't enough evidence to support a claim like that. Either is completely made up, or it's such an extreme distortion of unrelated statistics to serve a very ugly and uncharitable political aim, and you should be able to figure that out. It doesn't help that the statistics you are claiming are very obviously ridiculous. They are so far beyond the limits of any kind of reasonable hypothesis that this should be sufficient to immediately call them into question, and yet somehow you've bought into them. Why?

That's the real problem. It's you. It's your limitless capacity to believe whatever absurd and ridiculous nonsense will make your political objectives justified. So, if we're going to fix that problem, if we're going to get you to start engaging with reality instead of retreating into a fantasy world of made-up statistics, we need to begin with the fundamental ideological assumptions behind what you are saying.

No person who actually knows what words like "transition", "gender dysphoria" and "desistance" actually mean should be capable of believing what you seem to believe. Something about your theoretical understanding of reality is wrong, and if you expect anyone to argue with or engage with you, we need to find out what that is.
 

Trunkage

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God forbid teens see a boob under any context, though I figure the actual problem is that it's a memoir about questioning blind faith in fundamentalism.
I mean, that not really the problem. I can understand a parent wanting to choose the material for their children.

I do NOT understand why the fundamentalist gets to choose the material for every other parent in the state. You automatically break the concept of parental rights

The same thing happens with Drag Show Storytime. If you've seen any pictures of these sessions the children are there WITH THEIR PARENTS. But conservatives keep pretending it's being forced on kids by some nebulous 'other' and destroying parents rights
 

Dalisclock

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Read that entire thread and feel like I need a shower. Matt Walsh is such a fucking creepazoid. I'd have a joke for how scummy and awful he is, but I'm not that funny.
I'd make a joke about taking bets until Matt Walsh is caught in a pedophilic relationship and/or accused of rape but that's not remotely funny. I'll just say the warning signs were all there if/when it does happen.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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I mean, that not really the problem. I can understand a parent wanting to choose the material for their children.

I do NOT understand why the fundamentalist gets to choose the material for every other parent in the state. You automatically break the concept of parental rights

The same thing happens with Drag Show Storytime. If you've seen any pictures of these sessions the children are there WITH THEIR PARENTS. But conservatives keep pretending it's being forced on kids by some nebulous 'other' and destroying parents rights
The mindset: "Anything that I disagree with must not exist. Land of the free!"