Funny events in anti-woke world

Avnger

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Well number 5 under "criminal justice reform" is a push for the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.
"Green New Deal" brings up local initiatives as well as national ones.
Funnily enough since insulin came up, there are several petitions on that, including government studies and implementing price caps.
"Public land drilling" will tell you who's getting oil pipelines where and why they don't like it.

So yeah, seems pretty simple.
First, you didn't answer the question. I asked what the top 10 most important were, not what 3-4 decent/good ones were...

Second, how did you determine that that particular criminal justice reform petition was better than the other 5000 (severe underestimation here) criminal justice reform initiatives? What makes it better than the justice for Breonna Taylor initiatives or Black Lives Matter initiatives? How much time do you have to devote to actually reading these to find out? How did you filter out the most legally well written with the most effective enforcement and least number of loopholes and unintended consequences?
 
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crimson5pheonix

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First, you didn't answer the question. I asked what the top 10 most important were, not what 3-4 decent/good ones were...
Oh sure, let me crack open Archibald's Guide on the Objective Scaling of Policy Importance (3rd edition). Come back with a better question.

Second, how did you determine that that particular criminal justice reform petition was better than the other 5000 (severe underestimation here) criminal justice reform initiatives? What makes it better than the justice for Breonna Taylor initiatives or Black Lives Matter initiatives? How much time do you have to devote to actually reading these to find out? How did you filter out the most legally well written with the most effective enforcement and least number of loopholes and unintended consequences?
That wasn't the question, so I didn't really look to see how effective it is, but in the generic I would see if there is some legal language attached and compare it to the national conversation on the topic.
 

Avnger

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Oh sure, let me crack open Archibald's Guide on the Objective Scaling of Policy Importance (3rd edition). Come back with a better question.
So you can't? Representative democracies do it literally daily with a nifty thing called an agenda. It generally helps when each of the 360+ million citizens aren't clogging the space with 'please let me borrow your xbox' submissions though...

That wasn't the question, so I didn't really look to see how effective it is, but in the generic I would see if there is some legal language attached and compare it to the national conversation on the topic.
So you would do that for each of the millions of petitions on the site (or thousands on any given topic)?
 

crimson5pheonix

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So you can't? Representative democracies do it literally daily with a nifty thing called an agenda. It generally helps when each of the 360+ million citizens aren't clogging the space with 'please let me borrow your xbox' submissions though...
Oh really? What are the 10 most important topics in the world, objectively?


So you would do that for each of the millions of petitions on the site (or thousands on any given topic)?
You likely wouldn't have to since many are copies or redundant, which is why earlier I mentioned filtering spam as being okay.
 

Eacaraxe

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Again, think about your internal logic. There is a problem with criticising the methodology of a study and then claiming it "blows out" anything at all.
It's either one way or the other. Either studies which extrapolate based upon self-reporting data count or they don't.

If they do, you must contend with the Lancet study. Otherwise, neither does the PLOS study.

Never mind that as someone with degrees in history and political science, you should have noticed the extremely controversial nature of the Lancet report...
Yeah, I did. I've also known the ideologies and association with which many who took issue with the report had, and duly discount them as they were almost exclusively neocons whose vested interest was in swiftboating the Lancet study. The single most inculpatory problem critics found with it, after all, was using survey sheets with corrected typographical errors, absent IRB re-review.

Beyond that, it's quibbling based on whose estimates of pre-invasion mortality rates are correct. Just, never mind how a lot of those folks who so-readily embraced the UN's estimated mortality rate of 10 per 1,000 during the sanction era, only did so after the Lancet study's publication...whilst previous to it, John Hopkins' estimate of 5.5 per 1,000 was held as a standard.

And laughable griping by people who temporarily abdicated their capacity to do basic arithmetic, arguing shit like the impossibility of interviewing 12,000 respondents in 47 household clusters. Or that interviewers were incapable of labor division.

And indeed, puzzlingly enough, one of those arguments being Lancet underestimated infant and child mortality rates post-invasion...but more on that later.

The Lancet study was adapted for another study run in 2013 (with data to 2011) which aimed to fix the problematic methodology.
That would be the PLOS study I mentioned earlier, if I recall correctly. And, well, they estimated a pre-invasion mortality rate of 2.89 per 1,000 and a post-invasion mortality rate of 4.55 per 1,000. So...apparently, Iraq had one of the best health care systems on the planet during the UN sanction era, and somehow managed to preserve that health care system in the middle of an invasion by a coalition led by the world's sole remaining superpower, the doctrine of which was to target and destroy critical infrastructure such as its health care system.

Excess deaths should be more useful. Many of the studies suggest deaths by violence being at least half of excess deaths. But when we look at figures for violent deaths, most sources are pointing to about 200-300,000 from start of invasion to the current day.
Many of those, such as the Iraq Body Count, draw their estimates from government disclosure of casualty reports, media reporting on civilian casualties, hospital and morgue reports, and NGO reporting. At least two of those sources -- government and media -- should be regarded as suspect at best, due to vested interest in under-reporting civilian casualties. And, those sources don't rely on extrapolation -- they report what is confirmed. In other words, deaths that occurred but may not have been reported or disclosed, or excess deaths associated with the conflict (or for that matter, nonviolent deaths in AO's regardless of cause), aren't accounted.

...Even taking the top end of these estimates and arguing a substantial underestimate of ~30% for underreported deaths, we'd still be quite some distance from a million excess deaths...
So long as we're doing shit like failing to account for chronic and terminal illnesses, cancer clusters, and infant mortality rate spikes in areas like Basra or Fallujah, directly attributable to the use of depleted uranium rounds, and chemical and incendiary munitions, by coalition forces during the invasion, insurgency, and resulting civil war.

A more balanced approach would suggest a much lower figure.
Uh-huh.

Good for you. But an argument from authority is not a compelling argument.
"As a scientist..."

I'm sure you could, however a huge digression into another topic of no relevance whatsoever would be a terrible waste of time. However, I sense you're itching to rant about it, so we might be treated to it anyway.
Nah, I believe I made my point merely dropping Kehoe's name in here.
 

Silvanus

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Unless I'm looking at the wrong thing, the health secretary is appointed. And it's not a quibble to point out that at no point is an elected official demanding a specific number of doses of a drug, it was an incredibly stupid argument from the start.
The health secretary is elected by his constituents, and is then appointed by someone who has also been elected to decide on a cabinet.

And it's extremely relevant that under the current system, it's someone's official job to ensure we don't run out of fucking vital resources, and that under direct democracy that position would be abolished and replaced with hoping 51% of the country's population keeps on top of it.


Not by an elected representative. And I still don't trust that they actually order the drugs themselves.
Alright. If you don't believe that it's the government's job to maintain resource supply chains, I can't convince you. It's... like one of the basic functions.


Or you're not, and then it's not.
Please, please tell me what the meaningful difference is between 1) a country voting somebody into a position in order for them to do a job and 2) electing that person to do said job.


Then ask him about it.
I'm asking the person who has spent far more pages defending the proposition he made.


There are whole ass sanctuary cities that openly defy the federal government on policies like that. Strictly all the states that allow pot are also defying the federal government.
Cool. I'm sure they constitute the majority of American citizens.

No, but the idea is ridiculous in the first place. The accountability for the populace is living with their decisions, and before you get smug again really stop to think about it. If we take for example Texas' abortion law, the people who wrote and signed the law aren't really affected by it since they can easily go out of state or even out of country. The law was signed without the input of anyone who would actually be hurt by it.
Sorry, this changes with direct democracy... how, exactly? The people who voted for something aren't the only ones who have to live with it. So are the minority.

More than 51% of people vote for an abortion ban under direct democracy-- and that 51% is composed primarily of men? They don't have to live with it. They vote to restrict gay rights or trans rights etc? The straight people who voted for it don't have to live with it.

As fucking if direct democracy is a guard against the tyranny of the majority.


Ah haaaa, the bystander effect? Have you looked into the studies?


Because it's bullshit, just like Stockholm syndrome.
"It's bullshit", you say with apparent certainty, based on an article regarding one study with a sample size of 219. Didn't do much for Raymond Zack, did it?

You keep saying the first part clearly without understanding, NGOs right now survive on their own. In fact handing government money to NGOs kinda defeats their purpose and puts their ideas into question.
The term "NGO" might be a bit distracting here. Although it has no formal definition, it's most commonly used to describe charitable organisations, which weren't the kind I was originally talking about.

I would be referring to bodies like the IFS, which does indeed receive government funding, and also provides both data and research frequently accessed by the government.

Filtering what is and isn't important is up to individuals. Use a search bar.
Your continued faith in your fellow man's complete knowledge and interest in every topic of necessity to a functioning state is inspiring.
 

crimson5pheonix

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The health secretary is elected by his constituents, and is then appointed by someone who has also been elected to decide on a cabinet.

And it's extremely relevant that under the current system, it's someone's official job to ensure we don't run out of fucking vital resources, and that under direct democracy that position would be abolished and replaced with hoping 51% of the country's population keeps on top of it.
It looks like to me that the NHS functions as most socialized medicine in the western world, which is to say that calling socialized medicine is a bit misleading, it's socialized insurance that establishes a fund for hospitals and such to draw from in response to expenses for providing service.

What I further suspect then is that it's the hospitals that buy medicine, not any NHS bureaucrat as that would be a hilariously inflexible top-down system I would see more at home in the PRC or Soviet Union. Instead I would think, the figure of used doses is kept by NHS bureaucrats both for record keeping and as a negotiating bludgeon to keep drug prices low, but the bureaucrats don't touch the stuff themselves.

Alright. If you don't believe that it's the government's job to maintain resource supply chains, I can't convince you. It's... like one of the basic functions.
Interesting opinion as we look out at massive supply chain issues thanks to COVID and see how little any government can actually do to deal with the problems directly. Blaming the government for supply chain issues is what Trumpers are doing now to bemoan the cost of gasoline and wood.

Please, please tell me what the meaningful difference is between 1) a country voting somebody into a position in order for them to do a job and 2) electing that person to do said job.
Ask if that's what Gerger means when he says what he says, I'm not speaking for him.

I'm asking the person who has spent far more pages defending the proposition he made.
I'm not, I'm arguing against your misanthropic based opposition to the blanket idea of direct democracy in general. If you're looking to nitpick interpretations, critique Bookchin.


Cool. I'm sure they constitute the majority of American citizens.
I feel confident in saying so.

Sorry, this changes with direct democracy... how, exactly? The people who voted for something aren't the only ones who have to live with it. So are the minority.

More than 51% of people vote for an abortion ban under direct democracy-- and that 51% is composed primarily of men? They don't have to live with it. They vote to restrict gay rights or trans rights etc? The straight people who voted for it don't have to live with it.

As fucking if direct democracy is a guard against the tyranny of the majority.
As opposed to the tyranny of the minority that is representative democracy, where not even 51% of the population has to agree with restricting abortion rights to restrict abortion rights and where you can delay equal rights long after it becomes popular.

Sorry, I'm not moved, the beginning of this conversation was me pointing out how direct democracy has frequently sped past representatives in providing rights.

"It's bullshit", you say with apparent certainty, based on an article regarding one study with a sample size of 219. Didn't do much for Raymond Zack, did it?
"Your real world study has no power against my SINGLE ANECDOTE! HA, GOTTEM!"

It's to my knowledge the only real world study of the phenomenon. Every other study has been off the street and asking random people hypotheticals.

The term "NGO" might be a bit distracting here. Although it has no formal definition, it's most commonly used to describe charitable organisations, which weren't the kind I was originally talking about.

I would be referring to bodies like the IFS, which does indeed receive government funding, and also provides both data and research frequently accessed by the government.
The IFS is an NGO and while it does receive government funding, it also gets a huge bulk of it's money from outside the government.

Your continued faith in your fellow man's complete knowledge and interest in every topic of necessity to a functioning state is inspiring.
Your myopic and contradictory cynicism in assuming people are too stupid to make decisions while simultaneously glossing over their need to understand policy in order to choose a representative properly continues to astound.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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So, fascist propagandist Andy Ngo was recently in Poland, where he commemorated his trip by having his fascist friends take a picture of him posing next to fascist graffiti

He's since been falsely DMCAing people sharing the picture, which isn't helping much
 
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Silvanus

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It looks like to me that the NHS functions as most socialized medicine in the western world, which is to say that calling socialized medicine is a bit misleading, it's socialized insurance that establishes a fund for hospitals and such to draw from in response to expenses for providing service.

What I further suspect then is that it's the hospitals that buy medicine, not any NHS bureaucrat as that would be a hilariously inflexible top-down system I would see more at home in the PRC or Soviet Union. Instead I would think, the figure of used doses is kept by NHS bureaucrats both for record keeping and as a negotiating bludgeon to keep drug prices low, but the bureaucrats don't touch the stuff themselves.
As I expected, you don't really know how the NHS works, then. A rejection of the insurance principle was one of its founding characteristics and you do not need to be insured.

It's a lot more than a "fund". Policy is directed by the government. Contracts are negotiated by the government. The trusts that run hospitals answer to the government and are audited by it. And it is explicitly the government's responsibility to ensure supply chains, regulations, and resource availability on a national scale etc.

Interesting opinion as we look out at massive supply chain issues thanks to COVID and see how little any government can actually do to deal with the problems directly. Blaming the government for supply chain issues is what Trumpers are doing now to bemoan the cost of gasoline and wood.
A failure to fulfil a job to a satisfactory standard doesn't somehow mean it was never their job to begin with.


Ask if that's what Gerger means when he says what he says, I'm not speaking for him.
But you are still talking about getting people to vote somebody into a position to do a job, but also not calling that an election?


I'm not, I'm arguing against your misanthropic based opposition to the blanket idea of direct democracy in general. If you're looking to nitpick interpretations, critique Bookchin.
*Full direct democracy. I've stated over and over again that I have no issue with confirmatory referenda existing. I have been arguing, from the very start, against a system of full direct democracy replacing elected government.


As opposed to the tyranny of the minority that is representative democracy, where not even 51% of the population has to agree with restricting abortion rights to restrict abortion rights and where you can delay equal rights long after it becomes popular.

Sorry, I'm not moved, the beginning of this conversation was me pointing out how direct democracy has frequently sped past representatives in providing rights.
Yes, some forms of representative democracy-- such as FPTP-- end up with governments who have not been voted into position by a majority (or sometimes even a plurality). It's a grotesque distortion. Thankfully there's quite a few alternative voting systems.


"Your real world study has no power against my SINGLE ANECDOTE! HA, GOTTEM!"

It's to my knowledge the only real world study of the phenomenon. Every other study has been off the street and asking random people hypotheticals.
Formal study on the issue has been woefully lacking (including yours, which was based primarily on watching CCTV). This is kind of unavoidable, given the ethical considerations and observer effect.

But instances are hardly difficult to come by. Wayne Couzens had a despicable reputation long before he murdered somebody, but nobody saw fit to report concerns. Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted someone, and nobody at the party saw fit to report it. EDIT: Huh, another prime example popped right onto the Current Events page only a couple of hours after I posted this.

The IFS is an NGO and while it does receive government funding, it also gets a huge bulk of it's money from outside the government.
OK, question: what NGOs, institutes, research bodies etc do you think 51% of the population would vote to keep in official funding, if any?

Your myopic and contradictory cynicism in assuming people are too stupid to make decisions while simultaneously glossing over their need to understand policy in order to choose a representative properly continues to astound.
Probably because the latter requires understanding of policy usually just in terms of broad principle, not detail, practicality or implementation. The requirements placed on the average person are obviously not equivalent.
 
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Agema

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Yeah, I did. I've also known the ideologies and association with which many who took issue with the report had...
Which is a cute way of trying to pretend that there weren't very substantial criticisms from a lot of people without ideologies and associations that would predispose them to reject it.

Beyond that, it's quibbling based on whose estimates of pre-invasion mortality rates are correct.
No, there's more wrong with it than that, regarding the adequacy of their surveying protocol - I suggest you do a more thorough reading-up on the topic. Again, bear in mind that similar techniques albeit better done have turned up broadly consistent data with much lower values, plus also being more consistent with other data collection methods.

Even then, one of the most basic principles of research is not to put all your eggs in one basket and overrate one paper - or at least, to cite a representative paper. If there are multiple reasonably consistent studies coming to similar values, if you pick an outlier on which to base your case, you'd better have one hell of a good justification. You have pretty much not provided any except for handwaving vague claims that everyone else is biased.

That would be the PLOS study I mentioned earlier, if I recall correctly. And, well, they estimated a pre-invasion mortality rate of 2.89 per 1,000 and a post-invasion mortality rate of 4.55 per 1,000.
And this is another classic data distortion tactic. It's attempting to subject studies that you don't approve of to specific criticisms whilst not extended the same precision and rigour to the ones you are relying on. The point is not that any study is perfect, but assessing the overall balance of quality.

Many of those, such as the Iraq Body Count, draw their estimates from government disclosure of casualty reports, media reporting on civilian casualties, hospital and morgue reports, and NGO reporting. At least two of those sources -- government and media -- should be regarded as suspect at best, due to vested interest in under-reporting civilian casualties. And, those sources don't rely on extrapolation -- they report what is confirmed. In other words, deaths that occurred but may not have been reported or disclosed, or excess deaths associated with the conflict (or for that matter, nonviolent deaths in AO's regardless of cause), aren't accounted.
The likelihood of under-reporting is widely known and accepted by many of these groups, such as the Iraq Body Count Project - hence also my example of the 30% underreporting in a previous comment. This still cannot readily justify figures as hugely inflated as the 2006 Lancet study.

"As a scientist..."
Yes, but I provided a rationale for looking at the data derived from my professional expertise. You just nebulously claimed the right to dismiss data as biased.

Nah, I believe I made my point merely dropping Kehoe's name in here.
I accept that you believe that you made a point.
 

Eacaraxe

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Which is a cute way of trying to pretend that there weren't very substantial criticisms from a lot of people without ideologies and associations that would predispose them to reject it.
Was it, now?

Who broached the issue of selection bias in cluster assignment in the Lancet study, you or I?

Who broached the issue of labor division among surveyors in the Lancet study, you or I?

Who broached the issue of pre- and post-invasion mortality rates in the Lancet study, you or I?

Who broached the issue of assumptions about infant and child mortality rates in the Lancet study, you or I?

Who broached the issue of correcting typographical errors in data collection sheets without re-submitting them for IRB review in the Lancet study, you or I?

I mean, it's awfully funny you're saying I'm disregarding potential methodological or ethical issues with the Lancet study, when thus far I'm the only one actually discussing them whilst you're resisting that discussion. Pick a lane, dude.

Again, bear in mind that similar techniques albeit better done have turned up broadly consistent data with much lower values, plus also being more consistent with other data collection methods.
...whilst making facially questionable assumptions about variables that drive estimates downward. The notion Iraq, a country suffering under UN economic sanctions third only to Cuba and North Korea at the time, had a mortality rate comparable to petrodollar-fueled GCC countries with first-world infrastructure and health care, or indeed the actual first-world, is nothing short of laughable.

Even then, one of the most basic principles of research is not to put all your eggs in one basket and overrate one paper - or at least, to cite a representative paper.
Of the two of us, I'm the only one actually citing papers and projects rather than obliquely referencing them.

It's attempting to subject studies that you don't approve of to specific criticisms whilst not extended the same precision and rigour to the ones you are relying on.
The irony is palpable, considering thus far I'm the only one to mention the controversy over the Lancet study's assumptions of mortality rates pre- and post-invasion as compared to the PLOS study. That's the literal definition of extending the same precision and rigor to these studies.

The likelihood of under-reporting is widely known and accepted by many of these groups, such as the Iraq Body Count Project - hence also my example of the 30% underreporting in a previous comment.
And they merely disclaim it, they don't create projections or estimates based upon it. Because that isn't within the scope of their respective projects or studies, which is absolutely fine. What isn't, is acting as if the limited scope of those projects and studies is representative of the sum fatality count of the war...least of all for how people are still dying because of a war that "ended" a decade ago, due to violence and medical issues that were caused by it.

I accept that you believe that you made a point.
Because it ain't about you. It's about those who may read that post, unawares of either controversy. Words like "peer review" and "scientific rigor" hold power and authority, to be sure.

But it's also power and authority appropriated and subverted by those with vested political, social, or vested interest to propagandize by way of publications that appear to be scientific, but are in reality anything but. Like for example, automotive, chemical, and fossil fuels industry-funded bunk studies churned out of think tanks to misinform policy-makers and the public about the genuine hazards and cost of those industries' operation...a pattern that repeated itself in the use of tetraethyllead as a fuel additive, the acid rain crisis, the ozone crisis, "clean" coal and natural gas, fracking, and above all else, climate change.

And exactly how right-wing-funded neoconservative think tanks churn out bunk studies to misinform policy-makers and the public about the genuine hazards and cost of the defense industry, military-industrial complex, US role in geopolitics, and American interventionism across the globe.
 

Buyetyen

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So, fascist propagandist Andy Ngo was recently in Poland, where he commemorated his trip by having his fascist friends take a picture of him posing next to fascist graffiti

He's since been falsely DMCAing people sharing the picture, which isn't helping much
He's such a fucking weenie. Seems he got tired of his fake medical grift, too.
 

Agema

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I mean, it's awfully funny you're saying I'm disregarding potential methodological or ethical issues with the Lancet study, when thus far I'm the only one actually discussing them whilst you're resisting that discussion. Pick a lane, dude.
I'm not resisting it, but it is pseudocriticism. It's waffling stuff, and then singly failing to do the most rational thing with that stuff. If a study has deeply problematic methodology, you therefore question the validity of the study, rather than claim it's God's own answer. It is form over function. It's trying to appear clever and informed by spamming stuff, but then giving someone a conclusion at odds with the information in the hope they're a little too bored or dense to notice and disagree. Don't blame me for just cutting to the chase.

...whilst making facially questionable assumptions about variables that drive estimates downward. The notion Iraq, a country suffering under UN economic sanctions third only to Cuba and North Korea at the time, had a mortality rate comparable to petrodollar-fueled GCC countries with first-world infrastructure and health care, or indeed the actual first-world, is nothing short of laughable.
The aim here is to compare two conditions of Iraq, pre- and post-invasion. It is desirable to minimise inconsistencies in those two conditions where possible. Given the inherent uncertainty of reported official mortality statistics both pre-and post, the most sensible thing to do is take a consistent way of measuring deaths and construct their own morality rates, because that ensures consistency before and after for comparison. This is evident in the study. Thus your argument here suggests you don't really understand what they did and why.

Incidentally, it also appears very likely that sanctions had relatively little effect on Iraq's mortality rate: there's evidence Saddam fiddled the figures to make it appear much worse than it was in order to exert pressure against the sanctions.

Of the two of us, I'm the only one actually citing papers and projects rather than obliquely referencing them.
Emptily, with form rather than function, as above.

The irony is palpable, considering thus far I'm the only one to mention the controversy over the Lancet study's assumptions of mortality rates pre- and post-invasion as compared to the PLOS study. That's the literal definition of extending the same precision and rigor to these studies.
But the Lancet study is accurate and the PLoS isn't, because you say so and only neoconservatives say otherwise, amirite?

And they merely disclaim it, they don't create projections or estimates based upon it. Because that isn't within the scope of their respective projects or studies, which is absolutely fine. What isn't, is acting as if the limited scope of those projects and studies is representative of the sum fatality count of the war...least of all for how people are still dying because of a war that "ended" a decade ago, due to violence and medical issues that were caused by it.
Assessing Iraq's metrics in terms of things like life expectancy and mortality rate would suggest that excess deaths have long since levelled off and returned to historical trends.

But it's also power and authority appropriated and subverted by those with vested political, social, or vested interest to propagandize by way of publications that appear to be scientific,
Sure. But it's attendant upon you to demonstrate that the specific studies in question are appropriated and subverted, not just saying that they are and claiming as proof that it happened a century ago on a completely different topic.
 

Eacaraxe

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...It's waffling stuff, and then singly failing to do the most rational thing with that stuff...
Subjecting the criticisms over the study's methodology to basic skepticism?

When the criticisms are actually points of "contention" like...there was no way a team of surveyors could interview forty households per day, as if the notion of a team of surveyors were incapable of labor division? Or, that Lancet's clustering of households negates the validity of the study because they didn't survey literally every back alley no matter how small, secluded, or unsafe in metropolitan areas?

...If a study has deeply problematic methodology, you therefore question the validity of the study...
I question the validity of those criticisms first, and whether those criticisms actually impact the end result of the study. And as it turns out, most of those criticisms were pretty fuckin' stupid. I keep saying the most serious methodological infraction committed by the Lancet team was failing to re-submit their data collection sheets for IRB review, after correcting for typographical errors, for a reason.

The aim here is to compare two conditions of Iraq, pre- and post-invasion. It is desirable to minimise inconsistencies in those two conditions where possible. Given the inherent uncertainty of reported official mortality statistics both pre-and post, the most sensible thing to do is take a consistent way of measuring deaths and construct their own morality rates, because that ensures consistency before and after for comparison. This is evident in the study. Thus your argument here suggests you don't really understand what they did and why.
Here you're just trying to distract from my point. Finding such a low mortality rate pre-invasion itself is suspect, given how wildly inconsistent it is not just with Iraqi self-reporting during Hussein's regime, but also independent UN estimates, NGO estimates, and external academic estimates. Johns Hopkins' own estimated mortality rate, "now" (after the Lancet study) considered to be a highly conservative estimate of Iraqi mortality rate pre-invasion, being nearly twice that of the PLOS study.

And, how inconsistent it is with not just regional comparative analysis, but comparative analysis with countries with equivalent levels of economic development.

The irony of this, is among the key criticisms you cite of the Lancet study, is the Lancet study went with the 5.5 per 1,000 pre-invasion mortality rate contrasted against a 13.3 per 1,000 mortality rate. Using the same metrics. As opposed to the UN's estimated mortality rate of 10 per 1,000. It's almost as if critics wanted to highball the pre-invasion mortality rate (thereby committing the exact same sin you lay on Hussein's shoulders) to obfuscate the excess post-invasion death rate as found by the Lancet study, rather than attack their findings directly.

"You see, the Iraq invasion couldn't really have killed that many people, because they were already dying by the thousands due to UN sanctions!" is a hell of a hill to die on, I'll give you that. Because that was exactly the criticism levied against the Lancet study, boiled down to its most basic level.

You want to warn against citing outliers as the norm, then cite the PLOS study's findings, when the reality is PLOS's findings are the outlier.

Incidentally, it also appears very likely that sanctions had relatively little effect on Iraq's mortality rate: there's evidence Saddam fiddled the figures to make it appear much worse than it was in order to exert pressure against the sanctions.
He must've kept the real mortality rates in the place he kept his WMD's and the Rolodex with all his al-Qaeda contacts.

Assessing Iraq's metrics in terms of things like life expectancy and mortality rate would suggest that excess deaths have long since levelled off and returned to historical trends.
I mean, other than that whole chronic illness, cancer cluster, and birth defect thing...but I mean, why pay attention to locales where fighting was heaviest and chemical/radiological weapons used the most, when national averages are more politically expedient, am I right?

Sure. But it's attendant upon you to demonstrate that the specific studies in question are appropriated and subverted, not just saying that they are and claiming as proof that it happened a century ago on a completely different topic.
I...need to specifically identify the biases of the US government, the installed US-friendly puppet regime in Iraq, defense industry trade journals, and conservative media outlets?
 
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AnxietyProne

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Jul 13, 2021
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Here's one for you


Florida school saying kids who are vaccinated could infect others via spike protein shedding
Wasn't I told that nobody considers vaccinated to be dangerous?
 

XsjadoBlayde

~it ends here~
Apr 29, 2020
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The one tightly woven common denominator through it all for the rest of humankind - the uberwealthy refusing to compromise their obscene financial growth





In business schools, there's a little parable that gets spun about the indomitable genius of American scientists and ... car tires.

Right after America surrendered the Philippines in 1942, the victorious Japanese halted exports of natural rubber to the United States. No rubber from the Filipino Pará tree meant a shortage of tires for cars, jeeps, aircraft — anything that rolled. Almost overnight, the wheels of the US war machine, just gearing up to stop fascism, were coming off. But American engineers swiftly rose to the challenge — inventing the process to make synthetic rubber. With that triumph of practical ingenuity, America was back in the fight.

That's the end of one story, but the beginning of another. What happened next does much to explain how our long-shared faith in science, and the Enlightenment ideal of empiricism that has guided American politics and business from the country's founding, has devolved into the epistemological crisis in which we currently find ourselves. It begins in one of those brand-new rubber factories, and it involves one of the earliest experiments in what we now call fake news — a beta test of a society ruled by "alternative facts," where there's no longer a consensus on just about anything formerly known as the truth.

On July 26, 1943, on Aliso Street in downtown Los Angeles, a plant was busy producing butadiene, a chemical necessary to make artificial rubber, when people noticed an orange-brown cloud overhead, a hazy fog that some described initially as kind of pretty, even though it stank like hell and made your eyes water. People in nearby office buildings coughed so hard they were sent home. Historians of modern pollution call this the birth of modern smog.

Over the next few years, smog was obviously coming from sources far beyond Aliso Street and began to blanket the entire city. On still mornings, the haze thickened, and a panic settled in. "Smog interferes with thought processes," a local doctor informed the county supervisors, "inducing fear, anxiety, and general 'mental tailspin,' including 'globus hystericus,' an imaginary lump in the throat which provokes continuous swallowing." Local spinach crops turned silver. Then black. Then dead. The reek was so bad that Hollywood stopped shooting outdoors. Classified ads for fancy houses and apartments boasted: "Above smog."

Officials tried everything. Emissions at coal-burning plants were capped. Backyard incinerators were banned. Housewives were urged not to shake dust mops or beat rugs. Proposals called on the city to deploy a fleet of helicopters to fan the smog away, or to bore holes through the mountains so the smog could find its way to the desert.

But the smog persisted. So the politicians finally decided to do what you did back in those days: ask scientists to use empirical data to determine the truth, the actual cause, so engineers could figure out a fix.

A Dutch immigrant named Arie Haagen-Smit jumped in to help. A pioneer in a unique branch of botanical science, Haagen-Smit had created a system that could boil down a plant and extract its essence. He could identify the plant's defining molecule. True, the system was bulky. To crack the atomic code of "pineapple," he had to import 6,000 pounds of them from Hawaii, chop them up, and run the juice through his series of distillation traps. But it was definitive. He'd done it with wine and onions and marijuana, too. So when he piped Los Angeles' rusty air through his traps, according to the Science History Institute, out "dripped several ounces of a 'vile-smelling' brown sludge — eau de smog."

It didn't take Haagen-Smit long to solve the mystery. Smog was what happened when hydrocarbons, created mostly by refineries and cars, were released into LA's famously bright sunshine. The light prompted a chemical reaction, oxidizing the molecules into smog. Haagen-Smit's findings "assume great importance," the Associated Press reported in 1952, "because they have been accepted as fact — and a basis for action — by the county's air pollution control district."

In the coming years, armed with this knowledge of smog, engineers figured out some really impressive fixes, all of them still with us — catalytic converters that neutralize pollutants before they are released into the atmosphere, gas tanks that capture escaping vapor, floating lids on refinery tanks to prevent evaporation.

Just as World War II was the birth of smog, smog was the birth of what we now call denialism.
If that were the entire story, the defeat of smog would just be another business-school parable of American know-how, like Benjamin Franklin's kite, or Thomas Edison's light bulb, or synthetic rubber. It's how we like to tell the tale of American greatness: the vigorous testing of ideas leads to new truths, which turn into smart action. Thomas Jefferson set the tone in the Declaration of Independence. After charging the king with tyranny, he wrote: "To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world." Then he outlined the problem, point by point, and proposed a solution. The Declaration is a call to rebellion. But it is also a scientific proof heralding a new kind of enlightened government, the elevation of empirical thinking to the grubby realm of politics.

Which is why what actually happened right after Haagen-Smit released his findings marked a kind of turning point in American history. At the time, factories were springing up all over Los Angeles, and car sales were booming. Fixing the problem of smog would be costly, and would hinder the unfettered expansion of pollution-producing industries. So the American Petroleum Institute pioneered a response that is commonplace today. It signed up a front group with a stately name — the Stanford Research Institute — and set out to trash the research that was threatening its bottom line. It was the beginning of a 70-year-long attack on the very nature of science itself. The path of that attack has been long and winding — marked by signposts of cunning, deception, diabolical genius even — but it has led directly to the world we live in today, with daily geysers of incoherence, slurries of lies, and discharges of digital sludge. Just as World War II was the birth of smog, smog was the birth of what we now call denialism.

The Stanford Research Institute was a Potemkin think tank, funded by the very industry it was purporting to study. But as one of the first of its kind, it hadn't yet learned how to conceal its true agenda. An oil-company executive sat on SRI's board of directors. It was funded by the petroleum industry's "Smoke and Fumes Committee." And the first sentence of its mission statement declared: "The prime responsibility of the Stanford Research Institute is to serve Industry."

No self-respecting fake institute today would make such naive mistakes. Nor would it be so foolish as to hire a respected scientist to take down another respected scientist. But that's how SRI started. It paid Harold Johnston, an atmospheric scientist who later garnered acclaim for his work on the ozone layer, to shoot down Haagen-Smit's findings. Instead, Johnston replicated Haagen-Smit's work and declared him a genius for figuring out the true cause of smog. Johnston was fired.

SRI pressed on with its alternative science. It announced that its own research showed the causes of smog "have not been positively identified." Its research supervisor, Vance Jenkins — who was also the head of the Smoke and Fumes Committee — launched a public campaign to disparage Haagen-Smit. The idea that air pollution caused smog, he declared, was nothing but an "unproved speculation" — an "interesting guess" that was being used by some "as a means of gaining favorable publicity."

In an oral history, Haagen-Smit's widow, Maria, remembered that these insults changed the career trajectory of her husband, whom she affectionately called Haagy. One evening, the couple attended a public talk sponsored by SRI. At the event, a scientist — bought and paid for by SRI — attacked Haagan-Smit by name. "He expressed regret that a respected scientist such as Dr. Haagen-Smit could make such a serious mistake," Maria recalled. "I could almost feel Haagy's blood pressure rise. He was furious. The validity of his work was being questioned! 'I'll show them who's right and who's wrong,' he muttered as we left the room.

Haagen-Smit devoted the rest of his life to studying air pollution. He stood his ground, eventually won the argument, and became famous. He was widely known as Dr. Haagen-Smog. In 1968, Gov. Ronald Reagan appointed him to head the new California Air Resources Board. In those days, scientists who were devoted to the truth were honored, regardless of political affiliation. In the very first battle in the War on Truth, it seemed as though the truth had won. Just before Haagen-Smit died, he had one of the world's premier environmental-research facilities named for him. It's still there, just off I-10 in Los Angeles, the Haagen-Smit Laboratory, a monument to empirical science.

But it turned out to be a museum.



II. 'Doubt is our product'

In 1952, the same year Haagen-Smit published one of his key papers on smog, the British Medical Journal published a very different paper. There was, the journal announced, a "real association between carcinoma of the lung and smoking." Further experiments and studies confirmed the link between cancer and cigarettes. Thanks to the smog industry's failed insurrection against scientific knowledge, the tobacco industry had a blueprint to improve upon. Like SRI, it would create a fake think tank — called, simply, the Tobacco Institute. But this time, it adopted a new strategy for denialism in the face of product-damaging science. It decided not to engage the science or the scientist at all. The tobacco industry had a new understanding: This wasn't a question of truth. This was a publicity problem.

So the industry hired a public-relations firm, Hill & Knowlton, to deal with this disturbing new fact — that smoking is really, really bad for you. In response to the information in a tiny science paper from England, Big Tobacco took out full-page ads in American newspapers, reaching 43 million people. The ad was titled "Frank Statement to Cigarette Smokers." It said there were "many possible causes of lung cancer" and there was "no agreement" among the scientists and "no proof" tobacco was the culprit. The cause of all these cancers among smokers could be ... well, anything.

A 1950s woman holding a cigarette with a black smog coming out of the cigarette and obscuring part of her face with cigarette advertising behind her on a beige background.Big Tobacco realized that it didn't have a truth problem — it had a publicity problem.

The argument was simple. The science isn't perfect, so we need more studies.

What's striking about tobacco's pushback to the direct, proven link between cigarettes and cancer is that it never blinked. The industry held to its proposition — that science hadn't proved its case — for the next half a century. The "repeated assertion without conclusive proof that cigarettes cause disease," the cigarette giant Brown and Williamson declared in 1971, "constitutes a disservice to the public."

The point was to create, in the minds of smokers, enough doubt in the rock-solid scientific truth that they would keep on smoking. In 1969, an internal Brown and Williamson memo summed up the intent of the industry's anti-science stance. "Doubt is our product," the memo explained, "since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the mind of the general public."

The industry's effort to generate a permanent state of ignorance in millions of people proved so successful that Robert Proctor, a professor at Stanford University who studies the history of science, created an academic subspecialty to scrutinize this new field. He coined his own term for it: agnotology — "the study of willful acts to spread confusion and deceit, usually to sell a product or win favor."

Occasionally, some tobacco executive would slip up and let their craven ugliness show. Like the R.J. Reynolds executive who confided in an actor on the set of a TV commercial: "We don't smoke that shit. We just sell it. We just reserve the right to smoke for the young, the poor, the Black, and the stupid." Or the moment in 1971 when Joseph Cullman, CEO of Philip Morris, defended tobacco's shrivelling effect on fetuses. "Some women would prefer smaller babies," he said.

But mostly the industry stayed on message. As long as there was a margin of a sliver of a fraction of a percent of uncertainty in the scientific studies, then the truth could not be declared the truth. As late as 1998, the chairman of Philip Morris — a man named Geoffrey Bible — said under oath and without spontaneously combusting, "I'm unclear in my own mind whether anyone dies of cigarette-smoking-related diseases."

As it happens, 1998 was a key year in tobacco history. Nearly every state attorney general in America sued Big Tobacco for the massive tax burden created by caring for the industry's dying customers. The attorneys general won a historic $206 billion settlement. After that, the industry gave up on Hill & Knowlton's talking points, mostly because the US market had become so negligible. There were now more smokers in China alone — 300 million — than there were people in the United States. That's where the action was. "Thinking about Chinese smoking statistics," a cigarette flack named Robert Fletcher murmured out loud, "is like trying to think about the limits of space." The industry's denialism didn't end when the tobacco companies lost billions of dollars in court. It just went global.


III. Discrediting science itself

In 2008, at the tail end of the George W. Bush years, an astonishing public-service announcement appeared on television. It featured former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on a sofa in front of the US Capitol, outdoors, sitting next to the serving House speaker, Nancy Pelosi. They introduced themselves and awkwardly confessed they were not friends. "But we do agree," Gingrich said, "that our country must take action on climate change."

As fossils buried in the YouTube strata go, this one stands out. It's arguably the high-water mark of a bipartisan belief in the climate crisis. Today, climate denialism is so rampant that it's difficult to think back to a time when such a complex and emerging scientific discovery — that humans are causing catastrophic levels of change in our very own ecosystem — was so widely accepted.

But thanks to the strategies developed over the years by the corporate defenders of smog and cigarettes, the fossil-fuel industry was ready. This time, though, there wasn't a single Fossil Fuel Institute — there were lots and lots of industry-funded deniers, all with PR-ready names: the Competitive Enterprise Institute, The Heartland Institute, the George C. Marshall Institute. According to an investigation by The Guardian newspaper, more than 100 groups were set up to "deny climate science and obstruct policy solutions to global warming." Climate denial was, in effect, its own new industry, and its sole purpose was to churn out industry-backed studies designed to look like independent research conducted by respected scientists.

The "scientists" who produced these studies were so transparently bought and paid for, they often forgot to camouflage their paymasters. One investigation revealed that the research conducted by a fellow named Willie Soon had been funded by the American Petroleum Institute, the Electric Power Research Institute, the Mobil Foundation, the Texaco Foundation, and the Charles G. Koch Foundation. There was a happy-go-lucky shamelessness to the way Soon posed as an objective scientist. Once, when he wrote an op-ed article for The Wall Street Journal, his bio said, "Mr. Soon, a natural scientist at Harvard, is an expert on mercury and public health issues." Harvard responded by issuing a clarification that Soon had "no affiliation with Harvard University except sharing a building with Harvard students and staff on Harvard's campus."

Still, the industry needed something more to undermine the mounting evidence that human-caused climate change was a Fact, as Jefferson would have called it. The year after Gingrich and Pelosi sat down together on that couch, with Congress poised to enact bipartisan legislation to regulate planet-warming pollution, climate deniers made another giant advance in the mechanics of modern truth-dismantling. It was no longer enough, they realized, to try to pass off industry propaganda as objective science. Instead, the deniers set out to discredit science itself. And the weapon they used was the precise opposite of the scientific method. They created a conspiracy theory.

On November 17, 2009, three bloggers who had a penchant for bashing climate science received the first of some 6,000 emails that had been hacked from the accounts of scientists working for the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England. What followed were a series of knee-jerk media moves that are almost invariably spurred by the words "leaked emails." First, a few days after the leak, a blogger for The Telegraph in London slapped the suffix "gate" on the word "climate," thus signaling a cover-up of historic proportions. A few days later, the headline on an opinion column in the paper dubbed "climategate" the WORST SCIENTIFIC SCANDAL OF OUR GENERATION. In America, the conservative talk-show host Dennis Miller invited The Telegraph's blogger onto his show. The branding effort paid off, and soon details of the "cover-up" began to pop all over the media.

None of the details were accurate, or even close to true. But they sounded great, especially if you're a former comedian riffing with a partisan blogger. For instance, the scandalmongers poring through the emails came across the phrase "hide the decline" and jumped to the conclusion that these scientists, acting in conspiracy, were concealing the fact that the Earth isn't heating up, it's actually cooling off. It was a denialism twofer: The science we've been fed is flat-out wrong, and the scientists themselves can't be trusted.

In fact, if you read the full email exchange, the scientists are actually talking about something they had discussed many times before, using that very phrase. Inaccurate measurements of tree rings had previously suggested — erroneously — that the planet was actually cooling off. Now, improved temperature readings being taken all over the planet were reporting a rapid and dramatic rise — which was "hiding the decline" suggested by the tree rings. But that explanation requires reading more than three words.

Images of factories releasing black smog into the air with a TV showing a climate chagne comemrcial by Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich in front of the Capitol building with a polar bear next to it. A red upward trending line is on top of all the elements and a red outline of the earth is behind everything on a beige background.Climate science moved denialism from industry propaganda to conspiracy theory.

In the coming years, eight different reports would exonerate the climate scientists of anything scandalous. But by then, the damage was done. The emails, which leaked just a few weeks before the Copenhagen climate conference, helped divert attention from the world's best shot at addressing the climate crisis. But more important, they managed to replace an accepted truth with a nonexistent scandal. The bold new attack on science was a triumphant success. Today, Newt Gingrich would never sit on that sofa. In fact, he long ago apologized to the conservative base for his reckless regard for the truth. In a recent poll, only 22% of Republicans agreed with the scientific finding that humans are causing most climate change. Late last year, Donald Trump could safely say, "I'm not a believer in man-made global warming" — a claim almost as marginal as saying the Earth is flat.


IV. The new multiverse

When Trump assumed office on January 20, 2017, the media assumed the new president would finally be forced to retire his Twitter account. There was talk of national security concerns, a sense that it was time to put away childish things. The status-keepers of Washington assumed Trump would hand off all his communications to a fully staffed press office — one of the most time-honored and visible trappings of presidential power, up there with the bulletproof limo and the Marine One helicopter on the White House lawn.

But there was no discernible pause in the presidential tweets. And no change of tone. Trump spent his first day in office claiming that attendance at his inauguration was the "the highest number in history," when it obviously was not. The press was soon poring over side-by-side satellite photos, peering down at the vast swaths of empty space at Trump's inauguration, compared with the jam-packed crowd at Barack Obama's ceremony in 2008. Experts at crowd estimates were suddenly everywhere in the media. Congress actually litigated this issue before the United States Senate.

Finally, on "Meet the Press," the presidential advisor Kellyanne Conway cleared up the confusion. As the host Chuck Todd pointed to the clear discrepancy in crowd sizes, Conway simply shrugged. The White House, she said, was relying on "alternative facts."

"Alternative facts aren't facts," Todd famously replied. "They are falsehoods." But what the press was unable to grasp at the time was that such categories no longer mattered. Under the new president, America had officially entered a new stage of denialism — one in which facts, as such, no longer exist. The wealthy have always been able to mau-mau a lie into truth, with the help of entourages of yes-men. That's how Trump, as a petty millionaire back in the Eighties, bullied Forbes into including him in its list of top billionaires. And those of lesser means have long retreated into the gratifying fictions of conspiracy theory to slake their despair at being powerlessness in a global economy. Trump's true achievement as president was to fuse these two forms of bonkerism, via the accelerant of social media, into a singularity of self-deception.

The Trump presidency has upended the entire Enlightenment experiment that Jefferson had outlined to a candid world. Until that moment, every aspect of modern life had been oriented around the ideal of rationality. Spy agencies, at least in theory, were supposed to supply good, solid intelligence so a president could discern the best possible course of action. Journalists were supposed to gather reliable information, albeit in a hurry, and bang out a first rough draft of what just happened. Historians, by adding more time to the process, were supposed to assemble conflicting contemporary accounts into integrated narrative truth. At the core of every major societal institution lay an assumption of empiricism. In the first century of the American republic, even organized religion served as a champion of science, which it celebrated as a means of discerning God's divine hand in the world He created.

After the Dark Ages, trial by ordeal — when the accused were drowned or blanketed in molten lead to see whether survival revealed their innocence — had been replaced with trial by evidence, carefully weighed and set before a jury to discern the truth. But the day Trump took office, the truth became whatever he and the loudest voices on social media said it was. America was being subjected to a daily trial by ordeal.

The press harrumphed that Trump was violating democratic norms. That Trump was lying. That anyone associated with this effort should be ashamed, and that everyone else should be offended. Some tried to understand the radical new form of denialism as one of those occasional moments when a president understands how to work a new medium better than his clodhopper opponent. Kennedy and TV; Clinton and cable news; Obama and Facebook. Now, Trump and Twitter.

But those previous presidents all used their respective media to persuade voters along traditional lines. Scholars who study how we communicate are beginning to discern that social media is categorically different from past forms of media. Rather than counter an emerging truth with a new argument, or even just obfuscate as politicians had always done, this new media can be manipulated not only to shred established facts but also to throw up so many "alternative facts" that half the country is confused and the rest exhausted. What better way to deny the truth than to create your own?

Take one small example: the election rumor that Trump voters were having their votes canceled because their Sharpies bled through the ballots. One voter who used a Sharpie at the polling site in her precinct was informed by the screen on the voting machine that her ballot had been canceled. She immediately jumped on Twitter, offering absolute proof that Democrat ogres at the election board were carrying out nefarious schemes, just as everybody said.

Donald Trump walking in front of imagery from the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol building combined with news headlines of the events with red Twitter birds coming out of a black smog. The background is beige.Donald Trump, drawing on the accelerant of social media, fused the privilege of the rich and the powerlessness of the poor into a singularity of self-deception.

Much later, it was cleared up. It turned out that the woman had previously requested a mail-in ballot. So when she went to vote at the polling station in person, the system actually worked perfectly. It was her mail-in ballot that was canceled. But once she made her claim on Twitter, it blew up, and a new truth was born.

Social media works less like print or broadcast and more like a reality generator. It doesn't stand up a single alternative fact but rather spews a multiverse of truths. Some flare into existence for a few moments before being extinguished. Others spark infernos that blaze for years, consuming vast swaths of reality. Social media, as deployed by Trump and his followers, didn't just rewrite the rulebook for denying unpleasant truths like smog and cigarettes and climate change and Joe Biden's election. It replaced the unpleasant truths with a dizzying array of newer, more advantageous versions of reality.


V. 'We can't really believe our eyes'

When it comes to manipulating social media, throwing out multiple narratives is the entire point. Kate Starbird, a computer scientist at the University of Washington who studies new misinformation strategies, points to the myriad allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 election. "It was the voting machines, the mail-in voting ballot process, the Sharpies that bled through, the suitcases of votes mailed in from China," she told me. "Some people glom onto one or another. But if you refute one, they'll fall back onto another one because, really, they work in aggregate." It doesn't matter which lie you believe. The tsunami of claims on Twitter doesn't so much create a specific truth as leave behind a residual truth of suspicion — in this case, that the election system is full of fraud and can't be trusted.

Starbird has seen this process play out over and over again, going back to the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. At the time, social media generated a host of conspiracy theories that the terrorism was committed by almost anyone besides the actual bombers, the Tsarnaev brothers. "First it was the Navy SEAL that did it," Starbird recalled. "Then it was Blackwater security agents. It went on and on, for all these different suspects. At the end of the day, it wasn't that they ever settled on one. It was that they put enough doubt out there. That people were like: 'Oh, we can't really believe our eyes.'"

For researchers studying the new reality generator, the key set of players are those with big followings, who transmute panicked claims into viral gold. Starbird calls them spotlighters and kingmakers. Recent studies of the exploding anti-vaccine ecosystem have shown that the overwhelming majority of the disinformation can be traced to 12 spotlighters, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. There is lots of money to be made from this new machine. Kennedy gives highly paid speeches, while the deranged radio host Alex Jones and the adulterous TV Christian Jim Bakker have been ordered by government watchdogs to stop hawking, respectively, COVID-19-curing toothpaste and COVID-19-curing colloidal silver.

But those are the payoffs at the high end of the generator — money, fame, power. For the info-serfs feeding the bottom of the system, the reward is fellowship and community, the pleasure that comes from identifying a new bit of alternate reality and the dopamine rush of seeing it go viral. Imagine, Starbird said, that you are the lady who tweeted that evil Democrats had canceled her ballot.

"They post a tweet as just a regular person, and then they get all this attention because a minor influencer retweets them," she said. "Then it's retweeted over and over and over again. So all of a sudden, they get this reputational gain. The mid-range influencer, meanwhile, gets all this attention because they're sharing stuff that's interesting to their followers. So there are these reputational gains that happen throughout the system."

Now imagine your tweet gets picked up by one of the top celebrity spotlighters in the political generator. Imagine the surge of powerful emotions as your new truth goes viral. And imagine how trite it would seem when a lamestream media type starts his nerdy whining about "facts," when your 240 characters were liked by Eric Trump's wife?

These are new truths baptized in the powerful emotions of self-discovery, internet fame, and group acceptance. They aren't just believable — they're actually far more credible than the antiseptic facts mustered by the amateur empiricism of daily journalism. It's why your QAnon granddad screams at the holiday dinner table. He's invested in the fact that Hillary Clinton drinks Adrenochrome centrifuged from the blood of infants, because he participated in some small way in the amplification of this sudden truth, while you're left sputtering about how, well, actually, a Vox columnist did a Google analysis of search terms and she says blah blah fact blah.

Sixty-five years ago, Roland Barthes wrote an essay comparing wrestling and boxing, which some writers have turned to in order to understand Donald Trump, who himself was one of the WWF's most notorious barkers throughout the 1990s. The essay also goes a long way toward explaining how the two leading generators of truth work. Boxing is an organized sport that is framed, like so many modern disciplines, by the Enlightenment idea of empirical truth. Boxing matches are tests of ability, presided over by a referee whose job is to enforce a set of agreed-upon rules that will, in the end, yield a conclusive answer to a question: Who is the better fighter?

Wrestling doesn't have any rules or referees, other than those used as mere props in what wrestling really is: a performance by the wrestlers (and the referee and barkers) to arouse powerful emotions in a brief tableaux. There are swaggering claims of triumph, absurd exaggerations, taunts, petty insults, boasts, tantrums — pretty much everything you look for in a Trump tweet, but sweatier.

Over the past few months, the new system has taken a truth that played out in real time, before the entire nation — the attempted coup d'état on January 6 — and smashed it with a folding chair until millions of Americans came to accept that what they actually saw was nothing more than a visitors' tour of the Rotunda. It's why Trump tried so furiously to strong-arm acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen into declaring the existence of electoral fraud in key states. Trump already had Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell and a gaggle of state legislators making the case, but they had nowhere near the juice to get the reality generator to crunch something this big. He needed a big, staggering statement of support from the most believable source possible, the United States Department of Justice. He needed fuel for the generator. "Just say the election was corrupt," he urged Rosen, "and leave the rest to me." Trump's hope that the new truth engine was robust enough to flip the legitimate results of a presidential election underscores how far things have come in the few short years since he Tinkerbelled a scattering of followers into the "largest inaugural crowd in American history."


VI. The adaptive nature of falsehood

Historians and social scientists who study falsehoods in political rhetoric note that most Americans who live outside the generator labor under the delusion that those who believe in its substitute realities are "wrong." That they are simply ignorant, incapable of discerning fact from fiction. But numerous studies have shown that many of those who trumpet falsehoods and conspiracy theories don't do so because they believe them. They do so because publicly repeating the falsehoods and conspiracy theories makes them feel good. They know the truth. But they get more — far more — from the lie.

The falsehoods, writes Michael Bang Petersen, a Danish scholar who studies fake news, "serve the 'function' of providing intangible feelings of self-esteem." Those who join in the social-media chorus get a sense of being on the right team. And the yelps from those who are offended by their tweets only serve to reinforce the pleasure of the "in group," creating lasting and significant bonds among its members. And the more madcap and unverifiable the false claims, the tighter the bond.



Petersen approaches the study of false rhetoric as an evolutionary biologist. He views the adaptive qualities of falsehoods not as some amateurish attempt at journalism but as something else entirely — as signal flares that enable scattered and isolated believers to form into cells of like thinkers. Analyzing bursts of fake news as an attempt to describe reality, to someone like Petersen, is like evaluating a Thanksgiving dinner from a nutritional perspective. It sort of misses that there's this whole other point.

The history of denialism, in a sense, mirrors the process of software development. It began with its beta version as a defender of smog. Then came its release as a champion of Big Tobacco, followed by a series of upgrades — some minor, some sweeping — designed to eliminate bugs and improve performance and address the needs of specific users: climate polluters, QAnon, Donald Trump, insurrectionists. Once the province of wealthy elites, denialism now operates at scale, with every American empowered to function as their own tiny Stanford Research Institute, enshrouding the national debate in a hazy and toxic fog of misinformation and paranoia and fear.

Software, by its nature, tends to get more powerful — and more addictive — with each upgrade. The next stage in the process, according to those who have studied the new reality generator, is likely to be far more frightening than what has come before. When "falsehoods have become a routine part of the daily news diet of ordinary citizens in advanced democracies," Petersen warns, the feedback loop moves beyond feelings of self-esteem and group bonding. The machine begins to generate something far more threatening: perpetual signaling for "pre-riot" violence. "Historically," Petersen writes, "some of the most murderous political programs — such as the genocides of the National Socialists, the Hutu extremists in Rwanda, and the ethnic cleansings in ex-Yugoslavia — have all been explained with reference to the circulation of falsehoods by political entrepreneurs."

There are, in fact, certain kinds of extremist rumors that often presage eruptions of ethnic violence. Among the frequent themes throughout history, Petersen cites found, are the "killing of children, poisoning of wells, and raping of women." If those sound like antiquated bogeymen from some bygone era, consider that half of all Trump supporters now believe that top Democrats in America also run an elite pedophile ring, that vaccines are poison, and that the January 6 insurrection was a friendly tour of the Capitol that spilled out beyond the velvet rope.

We still live in a democracy, for the moment. But its operating system is no longer driven by an algorithm of truths we hold to be self-evident.
Wow that paywall...only the annual sub removes ads?? BEGONE!
 

Agema

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Subjecting the criticisms over the study's methodology to basic skepticism?
Selecting out the criticisms of a paper for skepticism, and even then which criticisms you want to be skeptical about, is hardly rigorous.

Here you're just trying to distract from my point.
No, I'm exposing your failure to understand what the study did and why it did it. But getting this sort of thing right is the basis of how we should trust your judgement about other analysis too, like how strongly we should value your opinions on criticisms of the Lancet 2006 study.

The irony of this, is among the key criticisms you cite of the Lancet study
Did "I" cite that as a criticism of the Lancet study? I think you brought it up yourself, and I said there were more problems than that.

You want to warn against citing outliers as the norm, then cite the PLOS study's findings, when the reality is PLOS's findings are the outlier.
We've covered this already. There are numerous estimates of casualties, and the Lancet 2006 study is clearly an outlier. It's only companion out there is the ORB study, which was widely regarded in the field as extremely poorly conducted, so is barely worth bringing into consideration.

I mean, other than that whole chronic illness, cancer cluster, and birth defect thing...but I mean, why pay attention to locales where fighting was heaviest and chemical/radiological weapons used the most, when national averages are more politically expedient, am I right?
A national average done properly should capture regional effects and reflect the nation.

If you only examine the places where the violence was highest and then extrapolate that to the whole nation, you'll get a huge overestimate, surely. Actually, that's kind of one of the criticisms of the Lancet 2006 study, isn't it?

I...need to specifically identify the biases of the US government, the installed US-friendly puppet regime in Iraq, defense industry trade journals, and conservative media outlets?
You need to stop bullshitting so hard and then throwing it at the wall to try and make it stick.

Either explain why all the other casualty estimates are necessarily contaminated with the biases of such entities, or that the criticism of the higher end studies you want to believe entirely comes from entities with those biases. After all, there are a great deal of demographers, statisticians and other professionals with little obvious bias who have severe doubts about the accuracy of the 2006 Lancet study who you're trying to brush under the carpet. Furthermore, numerous of these other studies are done by such people. You are persistently trying to pretend otherwise, hence this line.
 
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