Jandau said:
Totalbiscuit had a nice segment about it in his Content Patch news show and I agree with him for the most part
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU6iA9IuF6A
Relevant part starts at 10:56
In short, one possible scenario goes like this: While gamers might not be into it initially, the publishers will be (no used games = more sales), so they'll flock to the console(s) that blocks used games, while abandoning those that allow them. As a result, all the major titles will be coming out for that console, forcing the players to switch to it or not get to play the major releases.
Now, that's just one possible scenario, but it's not an unlikely one. Also, while dedicated gamers fuss and protest and boycott and whatnot (as consumers should do when faced with bullshit), the general public is willing to accept quite a bit of punishment and still fork over the cash. Since the publishers follow the money, the market segment that is actually sufficiently aware as consumers to actually care might end up being too small to be truly relevant.
Basically, if they want to block used game sales, they'll most likely get away with it. Sucks.
While that may happen, I think that line of reasoning fails to account for a key bit of information: used sales help drive new sales, and used sales can help create new customers.
As far as my first point, you know those used copies you see lining Gamestop's shelves the day after, and especially within a few weeks of release? There are a ton of people buying at launch and trading stuff in to do it. Losing the ability to do that, I'd have to think, would result in some dramatic changes in sales. Right now, the ability to trade a game in and get a good amount of credit for it right after launch is basically targeting the price conscious consumer up front. Instead of getting them with sales a year from now, you get them on day one. And with the completely insane pricing that I see on some games in retail locations, where titles rarely drop in price or go on sale, especially when they're popular, I'm not sure publishers are capable of filling that void that taking away used sales would do through the retail chain. Perhaps even more frightening is to consider whether a retail chain can even function profitably without used sales. I don't have any numbers though, so that's speculation. But stores would almost certainly become a lot less profitable. And if they can't afford to run at all, good luck selling your physical games with stores closing in various places. I'm sure some smaller towns and what not would suffer the most.
And as far as the second point, some people just either don't have the money when your game first comes out, or aren't sure they want to pay full price. They'll wait months, or even years, until they see it for $20 as a greatest hits title or in a bargain bin somewhere and give it a go. What happens if they absolutely loved it? Well if it's something like Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, or Call of Duty, they'll probably go out and buy the sequel. And wait, what's that? They've finished those up and a new one is coming out in two months? Better go pre-order it.
Maybe customers would swallow no used games if companies flock to one console, but I can't see how such a thing won't impact sales to some degree. In fact, I think the idea of eliminating used games may be very short sighted and lead to some very serious unforeseen consequences. And let's face it, companies are really bad at eliminating things they don't like that the public uses. Their track record on DRM alone should give anyone hearing about eliminating used games pause. It might even just do more to encourage outright piracy.