We'll never know, I suppose. I am mostly concerned with combating the pernicious myth that the Civil War wasn't mostly about slavery. But I would note that it took over a century for free blacks in the South to actually achieve most of their civil rights, so I'm not sure how much more gradual the transition could possibly be. It wasn't just rich whites who were enforcing Jim Crow. Poor whites had more to gain from putting someone else on the bottom of the totem pole. At the risk of sounding fatalistic, I think the die was cast for the United States when we backed out of slowly eliminating slavery back in the early days of the republic, when Southerners were still ambivalent about the institution. After that, violence and pain were pretty much guaranteed.Dastardly said:Of course the entrenched powers were resistant. When has this ever not been the case? Are we surprised that the people benefiting the most from a system are the least apt to want to get rid of it? Or that the people most vocal about getting rid of it are people who don't have money tied up in it (or worse, the people who've already made their money from it)?Country_Bumpkin said:The problem with this version of the pre-Civil War era is that there were plenty of prominent Southerners calling for an expansion of slavery. It was far from accepted that slavery needed to die a slow death. The idea that all Americans would eventually become industrialized was viewed as being a step down from the present situation, since being on top of a slave-holding farming society was better than being just a lowly wage laborer. And since the South had an effective veto over the Federal government, there really wasn't much else to do but allow the South to grow ever more entangled in its untenable situation.
The great thing about this country, though, is that entrenched powers can't guarantee that they'll stay entrenched. A mid-term election could sway the balance of power toward the more progressive-minded, allowing legislation to start passing that begins the process.
Again, I'm not saying it would have been an easy fight, or a fast one. I'm saying there's a possibility that a gradual phasing-out of slavery would have allowed a smoother transition for both the South's economy and for those people being freed.
As the good President said: "Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman's two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said 'the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.'"