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XsjadoBlaydette

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Is sadly rare to hear someone elaborate on Saudi Arabia's human rights abuses that isn't just "hey that one journalist" or "they don't party with the gays much" cos, in many ways like Israel, the true extent of those abuses are much more vast and horrifying and worth saying. Though would also add their tendency for kidnapping kids and forcing them to be child soldiers in Sudan and Yemen respectively, as well as their habit of deploying the "double tap" bombing maneuver on buses full of kids. The "double-tap" , if anyone needs a refresher, is bombing once, then waiting enough time for emergency aid workers to reach vicinity before bombing again. Just like Israel.
 
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tstorm823

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Weirdly, I was reading an article about renewable water, and it just occurred to me that nothing the Republicans do is sustainable over the long run.
Wanting something to be true and realizing something are not the same brain process.
 

Agema

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Wanting something to be true and realizing something are not the same brain process.
Well, here's the thing. His post has a wider argument, and from the terms of his argument, his conclusion is correct. So unless you fancy addressing those arguments, you're statement is just so much hot air.
 

tstorm823

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Well, here's the thing. His post has a wider argument, and from the terms of his argument, his conclusion is correct.
Does it have a wider argument? Let's take a look:
Weirdly, I was reading an article about renewable water, and it just occurred to me that nothing the Republicans do is sustainable over the long run. The way many do policy isn't sustainable in the long run; the way they market themselves and campaign will not be sustained in the future unless it's by someone who acts like a Republican and prioritizes short-term gains.
So far, we have "the way they do policy/market themselves/campaign" is unsustainable... what's the argument? What are those ways? What am I supposed to refute? How do they market themselves or campaign that are unsustainable, I don't even know what "ways" are intended in that statement, nor am I sure even Gergar does. Policy, I could at least guess there's an energy and environment element to, which I would argue that using the full resources available to us is the only path to sustainability, we'll never reach the next generation of technologies if we kneecap ourselves right now, actual sustainability will require we generate more electricity than we do now, not less, and fossil fuels are what power us building the infrastructure to reach that point. But then he gives a specific and its this:
The general tariffs led to wars and famines at worst and shortages for both sides at best. I would argue the Democrats would have tried to coup Maduro but wouldn't try to take his oil and rare earths or be as brazen about it and would follow international law, which is much more sustainable than unilateral action. The application of the Monroe Doctrine in such a way isn't sustainable because it requires the cooperation of various countries in South America.
Unsustainable is tariffs and actions against Maduro? Like, what?
A) Tariffs have been used for centuries, they're plenty sustainable. If there is an unsustainable factor of Republican economic policy, it's the refusal to raise taxes anywhere, tariffs actually help there. Taking action against a regime pretty much everyone but Seanchaidh opposes I guess isn't sustainable, but that's not a circumstances you want sustained, that's something we want to change, that's the point of taking action. Calling either of those things unsustainable doesn't make sense, but also...
B) Neither of those things are core Republican stances. These are not things that the Republican party even agrees upon at present, more or less long term. We have interventionists and isolationists, we have tariff supporters and free trade absolutists. I'm not sure I would even be comfortable betting on those two policies standing to the end of Trump's term, I highly doubt those are even ongoing arguments 10 years from now.

And then we get to this:
In every field, the Republicans have picked the short-term option over the sustainable option. We will if we haven't already hit peak oil; natural gas is next, alongside uranium/non-thorium fission nuclear energy. They still operate like it's the 20th century. "We're building/doing stuff fast, consequences be damned" is the doctrine of the Republicans.
Peak oil. Seriously. The conversation at this historical moment is where peak demand will be, as gloabl oil usage that had quadrupled over the end of the 20th century has nearly flatlined and is predicted to start declining soon, and Gergar is worried we're going to run out imminently. And then Uranium supplies is an issue? Known and accessible uranium could power the globe moving forward for longer than the US has existed without any further advances in technology. Is it porblematically short term thinking to use a solution that could sustain humanity for centuries? Is that core to the Republicn party?

Which of these arguments do you want to sign your name to? What about this was really convincing to you that Republicans are unsustainable in every way?
 

Gergar12

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Wanting something to be true and realizing something are not the same brain process.
You can read the article yourself.

The reading's name was " Twenty-first century urban water management: the imperative for holistic and cross-disciplinary approach "

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Edit: I did read all of it but due to copyright I can't just copy, and paste all of it here.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Fast times in fast food.

Reason really really wants wages to stay low, but it just doesn't work that way. The good old Big Mac index is always the biggest shot against people who hate minimum wage hikes, because as of right now the US has the 6th most expensive Big Mac in the world, more expensive than countries with much much better employee compensation than the US average.
 
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Bedinsis

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Since we now have two separate papers analyzing the same policy, one concluding that employment decreased significantly and the other that the drop was staistically insignificant, I thought it clould be fruitful to see how their methodologies varied since they got different results. As luck would have it, the latter produced paper had a section explaining this very thing:
Soskinskiy & Reich paper said:
Our employment findings contrast sharply with a recent paper by Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) (hereafter CEM), which also uses QCEW data and event study methods to evaluate the employment effect of California’s $20 fast food minimum wage. CEM’s main finding suggests a statistically significant and negative 3.2 percent employment effect, while our paper finds a smaller and statistically insignificant effect of -1.2 percent. Both papers use DiD and DDD event study approaches. However, the two papers make different detailed methodological choices. Appendix A discusses the detailed methodological differences that underlie the two sets of results and conducts robustness tests of their results and ours. We summarize that discussion here.

First, CEM do not control for California’s slower population growth, which adversely affected employment and demand for fast food and full-service restaurants. Second, they use noisier monthly data. Third, they choose a nonstandard reference period– the date the policy was enacted, which preceded its implementation by five months. Half of their detected employment decline occurred in five months prior to the implementation date. When we use less noisy quarterly data and control for population and GDP changes, we do not detect any significant employment effects in the five months between CEM’s reference date and the actual implementation date. Finally, CEM’s DDD specification does not adequately account for confounding changes that affected related industries, such as full service restaurants.

CEM’s methodological choices impart substantial negative biases to their employment estimates, while our methodological choices are free of such biases. Moreover, our ”honest DiD” inference method– following Rambachan and Roth (2023), is robust to relaxing the implausible assumption of perfectly parallel trends. We therefore stand by our employment result: the $20 minimum wage did not significantly affect fast-food employment
My read here is that it is mostly Greek to me. I did find it odd that the CEM paper covered the 5-month-period before the enactment of the policy, but maybe employers started planning once they heard what was coming and therefore that period is relevant. This was my speculation as I wrote this, but then I actually got to appendix A and found out that I was correct.
 

Schadrach

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They Said AI Would Replace You
All claims like that are more or less always wildly generous about what's coming. They're not "wrong", exactly, but the timeline is wildly accelerated. We did have the concept of "vibe coding" (aka coding using heavy AI assistance) really enter the lexicon in 2025 and it's far from perfect but it's also better than a lot of people think. Not that long ago we also had demos of humanoid robots from Chinese labs doing domestic tasks and doing embroidery (which sounds minor, but involves the machine being able to do two handed coordination where one hand is not visible and handle a rigid needle, thread, and a deforming fabric surface and how those things interact accurately and in real time). The tech is only going to improve over time - there's no reason to think the current situation is anywhere close to some kind of theoretical or practical maximum for what it can do.

Assuming no one comes out with some new AI methodology unrelated to tensor math, I'd expect TPUs to replace GPU compute for AI stuff in the next couple of years (they're faster and more power efficient - the push for GPUs for AI use over them is primarily because TPUs are an ASIC while GPU are more flexible in case tensors end up not being made obsolete as an approach). I'd expect some kind of domestic task robot aimed at early adopter consumers (expensive but cheaper than a new car) with a locally running model to hit market sometime after 2035 but probably before 2050. Fully self-driving cars will likely be popularized around the same time likely with something like Uber being the first big use case, but once they become common for individuals to own renting out your car to Uber when you aren't using it will be a thing especially outside larger metro areas where keeping a fleet of self driving robo taxis available and maintained wouldn't be cost effective.

The real questionable bit and why a lot of the experts go for shorter timelines goes back to "vibe coding" and why it seems like such a goal for them - if you can teach an AI to be at least as good as humans at hardware or software design you can accelerate timescales on everything related to AI massively by essentially letting it work 168 hours per week per instance tasked with building better versions of itself who could in turn do the same, leading to potentially explosive growth in capability and efficiency.
 

BrawlMan

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They're not "wrong", exactly, but the timeline is wildly accelerated. We did have the concept of "vibe coding" (aka coding using heavy AI assistance) really enter the lexicon in 2025 and it's far from perfect but it's also better than a lot of people think
Yet they keep investing and losing money or have to hire many back people just to make their AI I "work" or not even bother anymore. if they get even extremely lucky for the second option. As was discussed in the video.
 

Schadrach

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Yet they keep investing and losing money or have to hire many back people just to make their AI I "work" or not even bother anymore. if they get even extremely lucky for the second option. As was discussed in the video.
People make dumb moves and fall for marketing, especially early on. It's just not at that point, at least not yet. It's like claiming to a company that the internet will utterly revolutionize their business...in the 80s. It's not wrong, but it's way too early to act on at any kind of scale.
 

BrawlMan

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People make dumb moves and fall for marketing, especially early on. I
Makes none of it right, and these investors/top corpos keep believing in fucking magic. It's the main issue and force it on everyone. AI hesit's uses, but not in these ways. They 're trying to implement it or substitute it entirely for art and human creation. Once again, as pointed out in the video.
 

BrawlMan

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Gergar12

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Glad to see people in my home state, fighting against this each time. We don't need these huge data centers for the sake of AI, and polluting our environment.

We do need some, but the rate they are building them is unsustainable, and they keep getting local government subsidies that could have went to the fire department, the libraries, and the school systems(Which should be funded federally or if not that state wide). We are outbuilding China already to the eleventh degree. We don't need as much.
 

BrawlMan

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