Obviously Elder Scrolls is next in line, but I still look forward to Fallout innovation over Elder Scrolls's. Basically, I want much more freedom and choice out of my RPG. Oblivion had zero choice. You either do all the missions or you don't...it doesn't matter if they're good or evil, you can just do them all. Fallout 3 was either join the Brotherhood or join them and betray them randomly in the end--massacring towns doesn't really count as a role playing choice. New Vegas is much better in giving you choices over which factions to support, but even then, the missions are mostly the same with slightly different slants and results. Moreover, you can't really join a faction and role play as that faction's newest best member since the factions are all kept to their small area of influence, sans the NCR and Legion. However, being able to give the big middle finger to everyone who wants you to give New Vegas to them at the end was amazing. I just wish it were more viable to either do your own thing or to really take a group and change its future entirely. Being the Superman of the area is dull unless you're a narcissist, and being a psycho can be funny every now and then, but is in no way roleplay. So there has been progress, but I wish it came faster. As to where I'd like to see that progress more, I'd still pick Fallout, but I'd gladly waste just as many hours on a good new Elder Scrolls game.
But really, there's nothing innovative about VATS...it's just a lazy admittance that the gameplay is about the dialogue, not really the combat.