Zer0Saber said:
I don't think sony or microsoft have to worry about nintendo any more, with game sales dropping and publishers pulling out, the system king might burn out soon.
The hardware sales of the Wii will definitely continue to plummet, since the market has mostly been saturated at this point. Having said that, I don't think that necessarilly equates to Nintendo doing poorly for the rest of this year or even for the rest of this console race. There are three points that I think work heavily in Nintendo's favour:
1. In accordance to their strategy of disruption, Nintendo has moved upstream and has shifted their focus from producing gateway and bridge games to producing bridge and core games. This can be seen in their impressive lineup for this fall and winter:
Metroid: Other M,
Donkey Kong Country Returns,
Kirby's Epic Yarn,
GoldenEye etc. Not only could this potentially draw in core gamers who previously didn't give the Wii a second thought, it could
convert at least part of the Wii's casual audience into core gamers.
In general, the core market tends to be more lucrative on a long-term basis simply beacuse core gamers are more likely to spend money on games. But while Nintendo's previously casual focus might be temporarily hurting them, they are also the only one who can literally
make themselves a core audience.
2. While it is Sony and Microsoft who are trying to perpetuate another motion controls craze, Nintendo could very well (ironically) benefit from this as well. While some core gamers might have at least some interest in Kinetic and Move, the remaining casual gamers who might potentially be drawn to it are more likely to go for the cheapest option (the Wii) over the other two. If that turns out to be the case, it will allow Nintendo to squeeze out a few more precious sales of the Wii.
3. While the PSP has regained some momentum in recent years (the stumbling block that is the PSP Go notwithstanding), Nintendo remains king of the handheld market. With the 3DS, not only are they aiming to solidify that position, they are also encroaching upon the market that the PSP has. Afterall, the handheld market is as much a part of Nintendo's upstream shift as the console one and the initial lineup for the 3DS includes a great deal of core games.
Thanks to good marketing, a well designed piece of hardware that offers something for everyone and great first and third-party support, with no successor for the PSP in sight in the near future, the Nintendo is preety much poised to remain a dominant force in this market. Infact, the hype itself preety much makes the 3DS's success a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Overall, the main thing to consider with Nintendo is that while console hardware sales are certainly going to falter, they will still be able to squeeze out some more sales. Meanwhile, any potential loss they might incur due to decreased console hardware sales will be compensated by increased software and handheld hardware sales. Afterall, this wouldn't be the first time Nintendo relied primarily on it's games and handheld market to carry them over (the Nintendo 64/GameCube era being the first one) and they are in
much better position this time around. So I honestly wouldn't be suprised if this holiday season ends up being the most successful for Nintendo or at least as lucrative as that of Sony.
Speaking of Sony, however, I cannot deny that the PS3 has gained momentum and is increasingly becoming the console of choice for many core gamers. Beacuse of this, it might very well be Microsoft who pulls the short end of the stick this holiday season...which is ironic, when you consider that the Xbox 360 has been the dominant force on the console market since the start of this generation. While Sony may have the less innovative of the two new motion control schemes, at least it is keeping the core game demographic as it's main target. Microsoft's marketing of the Kinetic, however, has been unfocused, ocassionally trying to appeal to one or the other. By trying to pander to both demographics, they might very well end up pleasing neither. Combined with their increasing loss of the core market to sony (which can be attributed to both PS3's successes as well as Xbox 360's failures) and Microsoft could very well find itself at the tail of the console race.
Many people have predicted that Nintendo will be the first one to produce a successor to their console. Considering the above, Microsoft will probably not be far behind.
