Desworks said:Commodity prices are unlikely to fall by any substantial amounts in the future, as the easy to mine materials are going to be harder and harder to find as time goes on. And while launch costs are indeed high, the risks of landing materials is nowhere near as bad as you think. Re-entry calculations are not very difficult to do, and there's more than enough uninhabited area's on the planet to drop things safely.
This isn't the first time in recent history the commodity prices have rocketed. In the mid 70s your saw similar profiles. High oil prices in the wake of the Yom Kippur war drove up had a knock on effect across most areas. Gold and silver was driven up by investors seeking safe havens in difficult economic times. There where people making the same argument that you have put forward then, yet 10 years later all those prices had tumbled. The main drivers for commodities now are unrest in the middle east, investors seeking value and Chinese manufacturing. The only difference between now and the 70s is Chinese manufacturing, however the demand form China is likely to drop. The Chinese government has recognized that they are at the top of bubble currently and are trying to engineer a soft landing.
gigastar said:True that the iron isnt really going anywhere, but we are using it. Its not like when someone needs some more iron theres always going to be someone who doesnt need it anymore.
And strictly speaking it doesnt just apply to iron. Several commonplace metals are going up in price because its getting harder to find fresh supplies on Earth.
This brings me on to my second point. Which is cheaper recycling minerals already extracted, or lunching robots travailing at 25000 mph, moving 1/2 million miles, mining a 2 ton asteroid, repeat until you have a few tons, then launching5 tons of iron back at Earth and losing 2/3 of mass on rentry. This isn't hydrocarbons we are talking about here its basic elements. The reason why iron is more common than than gold is due the laws of physics, the heaver the element the less of it of created by fusion in stars or by super novas. Yes there are vast quantities of minerals out there but they are going to be in roughly the same distribution you find on Earth. In other words you going to find vastly more iron than you are gold. Even at todays prices iron ore is dirt cheap. Even if you do find a 20 ton lump of pure gold, what do think that's going to do the price of gold? The markets can respond quicker than you can get the gold on the ground. The more you find the less its worth.