This, at least to me, seems like a bad situation to be in for them. If they go F2P, they
know they're going to fuck it up, if they're going buy-to-play, they can't keep the big-ass servers running, so the only thing that's left is the subscription model. And that, at this point, dooms the game to failure.
What is the game competing with? Here's a list of the biggest probable competitors:
- WoW.....................Subscription-based, lower subscription fees [footnote]As far as I know.[/footnote], very sucessful
EQNext..................Probably F2P, might attract people due to destruction physics
FFXIV:ARR............Subscription-based[footnote]As far as I know.[/footnote]
GW2......................Buy-to-play, very sucessful
TERA.....................F2P, similar combat system
Now. Let's take a look at who is going to want to play this game:
Elder Scrolls Fans
MMORPG fans looking for something slightly different
Action-MMORPG fans (like, say, me)
MMORPG and TES fans (arguably the demographic they make this MMO for)
So, if somebody is already playing WoW/Rift/TSW/SWTOR/GW and looking for something that uses slightly different mechanics, they're going to be turned off primarily by the action-focused combat that can't be macroed. These people are likely to either continue playing their game or start playing Guild Wars or FF14.
If somebody is a TES fan, they're going to hate the inability to mod the game and the subscription fee.
If somebody is an Action-MMORPG fan, they're probably going to be better served playing TERA or EQNext (from what I've seen at least).
The only demographic this game is still for, is the demographic that has no problem with paying 15 bucks a month, loves the Elder Scrolls series, isn't concerned with modding, and has friends who belong to the same demographic. I'd say this narrows the potential playerbase down somewhat. Well, at least they won't need more servers than they have now when the game launches.