You have put numbers to what was on my mind. That's awesome!Woe Is You said:I... fail to see how this benefits the customer at all. I mean, the folks buying their games new won't be getting any carrots and anyone involved in the second hand business is basically getting pissed on.Onyx Oblivion said:And just like that, I love THQ more, and continue to look forward to their publishing of Saint's Row 3.
Okay, let's go through the numbers and refute this notion that used games are bad for the industry.SniperWolf427 said:You, as the developer, have seen only 60 dollars from that. You got paid once, but at least two (usually even more) people have enjoyed your game. That is certainly not fair for you.
A few quick metrics, first: Gamestop in recent filings (I think FY 08, but may have the year wrong; I'm certain it's within a back-of-envelope calculation) made a gross margin of about 27%. That is, For every dollar of revenue they take in through the till, they paid about $0.73 to whomever sold them the game. For a new game like Final Fantasy XIII, that's about 15%; for a used copy of the same game, they paid somewhere in the $25-30 range to sell at $54, and they bought back enough copies of Barbie Horse Adventures (that never sold) to reduce the total take from the used profits down a few points. If I were to show my work, the record would show that about half the chain's profits come from used games, but only one fourth of the chain's SALES come from used games. For every used game sold at the standard new game pricing point, THREE new games are sold at a figure 10% north of that mark.
All of this means that if used games went away, the new games market would, in a vacuum, gain no more than about 30-35% in sales. It simply CAN'T gain more from the market share of used games because, well, that pretty much reduces market share in used games to zero.
But there's more to it than that. When Gamestop or rivals give a gamer $25-30 in credit for their game, what does he do with that money? That's right, he BUYS MORE GAMES. And as we've seen, 75% of the time, those will be new games. Get rid of the used game market, and those sales are, at best, cut in half - because game churn lowered the cost of entry on new games to a used game plus $30, and not having the credit means that the gamer has to save up twice the cash to get his new game.
So now we're down to an upper bound of 15-18% gain in sales from the elimination of used product from the chain, and we haven't even touched on the most obvious problem from a developer's standpoint: the killing of the game store. Used sales keep game stores afloat. They provide half the revenue for a chain like Gamestop; get rid of it and they can keep the lights on or they can staff the store, but they can't do both. Before used games flooded the market, retailers enjoyed margins of 30% or more from distributors, but margins for retailers dropped as the pressure to hold the line on end pricing met higher costs from the studios. If gross margin drops to 15-18%, Gamestop will either diversify in a hurry or hemorrage.
Of course, XBox Live and PSN Store will help pick up the slack in game sales to a degree, but if Gamestop sees its margins cut in half and folds or even cuts back its videogaming profile in favor of a more meaty lineup of product, you're still going to see lessened visibility in thousands of locations translate into massive drops in sales. If Retailer A sells 5000 copies of a game and Retailer B sells 5000 copies of the same game, and Retailer B closes shop, Retailer A isn't going to sell 10000 copies of the game. They'll sell 8000 or fewer. I've opened stores; I've closed competitors. Smart.
So if you gain 15% of customers from killing used sales, but you hurt your distribution network to the degree that 20% fewer people purchase your product, what the hell have you accomplished?
Thank you for your post.